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Asia Facing Unprecedented Food Shortage, UN Report Says
Asia faces an unprecedented food crisis and huge social unrest unless hundreds of billions of dollars are invested in better irrigation systems to grow crops for its burgeoning population, according to a UN report published today.
The UN has said that billions of dollars will be needed to improve irrigation in Asia. Photograph: Stringer/India/Reuters India, China, Pakistan and other large countries avoided famines in the 1970s and 1980s only because they built giant state-sponsored irrigation systems and introduced better seeds and fertilisers. But the extra 1.5 billion people expected to live on the continent by 2050 will double Asia's demand for food, says the report from the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the World Bank-funded International Water Management Institute (IWMI).
A combination of very little new land left for cultivation, an increasingly unpredictable climate and water supplies stretched to the limit means the only realistic option to feed people in the future will be better management of existing water supplies, according to the report.
"There is no new land or water to develop so we have to make more use of what we have. Existing irrigation systems are often 50 to 70 years old. They are leaking and water is evaporating. We urgently need a new generation of irrigation. That is the only way we are going to feed everyone," said Colin Chartres, who is the director general of IWMI.
"If we don't [invest] we will see food crises like the one in 2007 repeated over and again. That was an early warning. If nothing is done, you are going to get an increase in social unrest, migration and a fertile ground for terrorism," he said.
Since the demise of communism and the rise of the free market, farmers have increasingly opted to take irrigation into their own hands, mainly using cheap Chinese-made pumps.
Tens of millions of smallholders have invested in their own pumps so that they can extract water from shallow aquifers whenever they choose. Governments have been unable to regulate this practice, which has led to major exploitation of water resources.
Water tables in parts of India and China have dropped catastrophically in the last few years. "It's a trend that will become more common. The consequence will be more farmer suicides, hardship and collapsing enterprises," said Chartres.
The food crisis is compounded by millions of wealthier people in developing countries turning away from traditional rice and cereal-based diets to western dairy and meat-based foods that require more water, says the report.
"The agriculture of tomorrow will need a lot more water. Given that one litre of water is used to produce one calorie of food, the world will need up to 6,000 cubic kilometres of additional water every year to feed another 2.5 billion people 2,500 calories per day.
"This is almost twice what we use today and is not sustainable," said Chartres.
The report urges countries to repair and modernise irrigation systems and use better drip-fed farming. The UN expects the world to have an extra 2.5 billion mouths to feed within 40 years, most of them in developing countries. Africa's population could double, Asia's could grow by nearly 30% and Pakistan's by 85%.
46 Comments so far
Show All"The UN expects the world to have an extra 2.5 billion mouths to feed within 40 years, most of them in developing countries. Africa's population could double, Asia's could grow by nearly 30% and Pakistan's by 85%."
Since the UN does not seem to know about population control, the Earth will have to do the job for them.
My guess is that soon, (or maybe we have already), we will reach the carrying capacity of the Earth for supporting human life. The only real way to deal with this long term is to reduce world population. This can happen in one of two ways. In a planned forward looking way where governments and people cut population, along the lines of what China did. Or it can happen in a mass die off which happens all the time in the natural world when a population grows beyond what its resources can support.
Anybody want to guess which way we will go?
well put it this way: i'm not too optimistic about govs/sheeple cutting the population.......
and have you noticed how most of these predictions seem to favour the year 2050
wonder why that is..............
Once the planet runs out of accessible and viable fossil energy sources (especially, oil and natural gas), the solar carrying capacity of Earth will reassert itself as the normative limit for human population it was before the advent of the industrial revolution. When that happens, Earth will ruthlessly eliminate all excess human population. Such has always been the case before the oddity of fossil fuels. (What fossil fuels have enabled us to do, among other things, is to extend the solar carrying capacity of our abode beyond anything that is sustainable over the long term.)
In a few decades, perhaps even less, this process will begin, for we know that our miserable, greedy, bought, and short-sighted world leaders will not do anything to avert such a predicament. They certainly have not so far, and nothing indicates that they will do so in the future.
It may be, however, that other factors will hasten this process, such as global warming, new, or reoccuring old diseases (such as the bubonic plague, which has already made several come-backs in Chica) and water shortages.
I am not including wars in the factors that may accelerate depopulation.
Abendland
Great explanation of oils impact on human population growth.
Most people have no idea how oil has contributed to and allowed the current population explosion. Before its discovery population growth was very slow. Once it was discovered human population exploded at a growth rate rivaling a bacteria culture.
Once we pass peak oil things are going to get pretty grim and pretty fast. That peak may have happened last June or maybe it could be 20 years out. But don't let anybody fool you it isn't 50 or 100 years in the future.
Do what you can to become as self sufficient as possible as soon as possible. We have.
Yes, you are so very right: unfortunately, only a tiny number of people on our sad planet know about the deep and often counterintuitive factors that determine what takes place here.
And, yes, it is imperative to grow vegetables, to have chickens and bees, or larger farm animals and such, and to think about where one is going to get water when there will be significant electricity shortages (even toilets won't work anymore, when that happens). People must begin taking stock of this situation that is going to hit us very hard, if we don't act upon it.
By 'acting upon it', I don't mean asking our Savior Obama for help: that is a pure waste of time. Rather, acting in our present situation means acting individually and in concert with like-minded groups of citizens. Forget about government: it is lost in an autistic microcosm of self-deception and grand illusions (the biggest of the latter being that the U.S. is "the greatest, the wealthiest, and the most powerful nation in the world', the kind of nonsense that will get you nowhere very fast and basically make a total loser out of you).
Farming is the wave of the future!!! As well as old pre-industrial trades such manual carpentry, smithing, animal husbandry, pottery making, and such. We shall be, and our children even more so, the witnesses of the transition out of industrialism into a completely different modality of making a living and being together (what the industrial age calls 'economy' and 'society').
It is to be hoped that changes will be gradual, not abrupt and catastrophic, but one cannot rely on gradualism alone, as there are tipping points within processual changes: think about the person who jumps out of the window of a tall building: the fall towards the ground is very gradual in itself, until contact with the ground introduces a world altering transition, indeed. Or consider the dam that breaks: first there is a minor fissure, and the supervisors of the dam take their joly time to call for repairs, if they take notice at all, but when the dam breaks, the rupture is sudden and devastating in its force and consequences.
By the by, in my entry, it should say 'China' not 'Chica'. Sorry about that.
Perhaps we need free voluntary vasectomies world wide. Who's first in line? How does not having progeny appeal to men? Do we need massive education efforts for this to work? Where to start and who would not agree to this idea? The only way I think to convince the people it must be done would be for all the leaders and the rich and powerful to be the first in line. Water, water everywhere, and not a drop to drink...Of course we waste water every time we flush and in this country we are mostly concerned with water in the western states where water lawyers make big bucks.
Doinit,
Why vasectomies? Population growth depends on the number of fertile women, not the number of men that would fertilize their eggs. For population control the burden is placed upon women. They need to have access to birth control methods and the societies in which they live need to be more responsive to the advantages of controlling the number of births.
Doinit,
Why vasectomies? Population growth depends on the number of fertile women, not the number of men that would fertilize their eggs. For population control the burden is placed upon women. They need to have access to birth control methods and the societies in which they live need to be more responsive to the advantages of controlling the number of births.
Of course I knew the vasectomy word would upset someone. I agree that right now the burden of population control rests on women. Can you tell me why that is? I have heard that men carry many more sperm to fertilize the one ovum that a women sheds each month. Did you know that vasectomies are quite easily and safely reversible whereas a tubal ligation is a much more complicated procedure. Do you think that if many, many men got vasectomies that women would hunt down the men that hadn't undergone the procedure just to get pregnant?
"Do you think that if many, many men got vasectomies that women would hunt down the men that hadn't undergone the procedure just to get pregnant?"
No,
But young non-monogamous men would hunt down fertile women.
It sounds good to cork the sperm, but It just doesn't work that way in nature. Primate studies (which we are 99 percent identical to human DNA) show that spreading one's DNA is the prime directive. If a male gets a vasectomy, the disappointed female will allow others to secretly fill the void. It is often the same with humans even though they don't want to believe that. Especially were the prospects of the extended family depend on upcoming labor like in the third world.
Tax babies. Permit them. This is how cities control canine populations. The principle is the same. A huge world population is no longer an asset. It is a liability.
TJ
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." - Thomas Jefferson
>>>doinit wrote: The only way I think to convince the people it must be done would be for all the leaders and the rich and powerful to be the first in line.
How about first making the religious nuts to shut up and not oppose even simple forms of birth control such as condoms and sex education? And the right-wingers from gay-bashing? Gays and lesbians - if they are allowed to marry - can only adopt children, right? And finally, "not having progeny" may be a bit extreme for many people - even stopping with one child WILL bring about a reduction in population. For this to happen, it's important in developing countries that female children get the same or even better opportunities than boys. Education and a bit of developmental aid (starting with writing off the debts of extremely poor nations) should go a long way in this regard. Rich people (in all countries) getting educated on the concept of ecological footprint (along with water footprint) would help, as well.
Of course religion is a major concern around population control and I would like to have a heart to heart with the Pope and all the major religious leaders on that issue. Perhaps a new "religion" is in order. I certainly agree that females would need to get better opportunities, and not only in "developing countries" but here in the USA too. Writing off the debts of poor nations is the only sensible choice when they cannot meet their obligations but we in the west are spreading such consumerism that of course they want what we advertise. Basic health care, education, food, water, shelter is a human right as. How to make the "religious nuts" shut up? We cannot make them do anything, but we can have major educational programs around these issues. I personally don't like to be forced by laws to do anything unless I agree first that the law is of benefit to all, and that is where education would be useful.
And, time to address the newest of the 'religious nuts' who are the "quiverfull" movement. Check out quiverfull.com to see what they advocate. Scary!
Oh my! I never knew this was an organized "movement", although I was aware of such an ideology. SCARY, indeed!
And encouraging paedophilia might reduce population too? Or is that a step too far?
What is needed is a transition to vertical, indoor farming. The Earth's population is getting too high to rely on traditional agricultural practices. Designs for such buildings already exist and the technology to grow indoors has existed for years. Advantages to this system include:
No need for pesticides - indoor growing prevents infestation in the first place.
No crop loss due to drought, flood, or disease.
No need for genetic engineering - optimized climates and lighting eliminate the need to gene splice frost-hardiness, pest-resistance, etc...
Consumes far less water than traditional agriculture - much less is lost from evaporation and water can be moved from top to bottom, a much more efficient means of irrigation.
Makes carbon-neutral farming attainable - most of the proposed designs generate enough renewable-resource electricity to run the entire process.
The other thing governments need to start doing is examining the construction of arcologies, self-contained cities inside of buildings. Ultimately, this is the only way to accommodate our expanding population without using up more and more land.
So we can do what?
Double the population again? Malthus is right. The only thing that keeps an illiterate population in check is food supply. You increase food supply right now, and the birthrate will skyrocket. This fork in the road in not at all unlike our reluctance to face the growing deficit and national debt. Unless some accounting miracle happens, eventually the interest owed will be more than you can print.
Population control's going to happen one way or another. Through China's one Child policy or massive famine; it's our choice.
Quit feeding the problem.
TJ
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." - Thomas Jefferson
Folks interested in vertical farming should go to Dickson Despommier's Web site:
www.verticalfarm.com
Despommier is the man who conceived of this type of urban farming, at least as far as I know.
I can't believe you people are suggesting eugenics as a means of population control. Have you lost your minds? Who and why would anyone sign up for that?
The most feasible way to manage our population is to rethink how we live and use technology wisely for a change.
It is an all too common attitude of people who live in developed nations to wag their fingers at people whom they out consume by 5x - 250x. Overpopulation is a concern that has to be addressed, but the greatest threat of these poor nations near term resource shortage is the exploitation of their resources to feed the consumption machines of other developed nations, as the article referenced below highlights. If we in the "developed world" would better ration our consumption, we could reduce the stress being put on these countries water and land systems. That will give them time to address their exploding populations.
Eugenics? I don't think anyone is suggesting that! Please expand on what you think that means. Got any ideas about living wisely? And by the way, thanks for the comment!
There is a connection between this story and this --> story http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/08/17-2
The "developed" nations haven't gotten the message. We have to consume less. Period. A lot less.
Have you seen the movie "Home" yet? http://www.youtube.com/user/homeproject?blend=1&ob=4 It is well worth watching, and then acting upon!
Our religions teach us that our magic invisible sky gods expect us to manufacture as many tithing members as possible. By procreating, we are only doing god's will.
Fortunately, our magic invisible sky god (whichever one you believe in) has a sense of humor and will naturally reduce the excess population by famine, starvation, and food/resource wars. He also has good business sense, because the first to go will be the poor. After all, they have the least tithing value.
Wars, famines, and epidemics have nothing to do with god (or which ever mythology you believe in), it's whats known as "The Self Regulating Free Market Economy".
Magic skygod of war and pestilence?
Yes!
His real name is Darwin, and boy is he pissed!
Famine and natural selection are on the doorstep.
TJ
(p.s. you understand of course, that our magic sky god sect must be fruitful and out multiply all the other false magic sky god sects.)
The introduction of state-sponsored irrigation and new seeds in the 70s and 80s led to higher production, which sustained larger populations, which need more irrigation, so as to yield higher production, to sustain even larger populations, which will need even more irrigation...
How does the world exit from this vicious cycle?
"How does the world exit from this vicious cycle?"
Climate change, dust bowls, floods, mass starvation.
The perspective of the maiden aunts and bachelor uncles around the world represent stories that ought to be told.
Imagine the variety of motivations that lead to the choice not to procreate. Besides this, imagine what it means to live and flourish in an environment that valorizes the family structure and how this perspe3ctive fits in.
the only way to ensure the sustained consumer consumption that our economy is premised upon is to sustain the growth of the consumer population.
declining population = decline in corporate profits.
it ain't going to happen without some serious re-work of the economic system.
Also forced sterilization is not necessary. educated women have fewer kids. In there is the simple solution.
That and only eat meat once per week if you must.
Wow. This article has attracted the comments on varied subjects. Religion, vasectomies, indoor farming, new irrigation systems, politics and what not. I learned more by comments than reading the article :-). It's amazing.
Here is my theory what will happen.
1) World bank (WB) will make sure this report get's everybody’s attention.
2) WB will make sure to give a huge multibillion dollar loan to India and Pakistan. (which is by the way not charity but profit making for corporations doing business behind WB’s facade).
3) India and Pak will accept these loans (as usual. They have different motif which is profit for few rich politicians. Don’t ask me how)
4) WB will make sure India and Pak accepts terms like, new Genetically modified seeds from western companies, New water management from western companies (i.e. water privatization by American companies :-)) etc, and no subsidies from govt to poor farmers.
This is perfect system in works.
Note: Article says "Water tables in parts of India and China have dropped catastrophically in the last few years. "It's a trend that will become more common. The consequence will be more farmer suicides, hardship and collapsing enterprises," said Chartres."
This is a false picture. The farmers suicide are on the rise right now due to complex effect of use of artificial seeds and selling cotton from western world which are subsidized by unfair policies by USA, India, PAK. (By the way cotton from USA is subsidized by tax payers money like us.) At the same time World bank while giving loan to India, Pak makes sure that all the subsidies for Indian farmers are removed under pretense of free market.
This is how it works folks.
Thanks My 2- good job.
Also heavily contributing to farmer suicides is the government has signed up for "patented" gm seeds from monsanto,which cannot be kept for next year. (see Vandana Shiva on Biopiracy) so they need to buy more more more monsanto, run up unpayable debts, and then see no way out but suicide. This is a HUGE problem- i do not have the numbers, you could look it up
Lacking family planning, famine is one of nature's ways to control overpopulation.
Kill ugly people only.
Na, go after the rich ones. Slap a little Grey Poupon on 'em, and there's some good eatin...
Tom
Wow, this kitchen is enormous! There must be some caviar in here somewhere...yes, here it is. Hey, I wonder what's in the wine cellar? Oh look, some dusty old wine bottles. Break out the crystal! Who-hoo! Hey look, a hot tub, next to the pool! Saw-weet!
"I like rich people. I like the way they live. I like the way I live when I'm with them!"
-Uncle Max (Sound of Music)
http://www.friendsofwfp.org
Drought, famine, sickness and war will deal with the world's overpopulation soon enough.
The fact that water is already dangerously scarce, that oil based pesticides and fertilizers can only continue to rise in price, and that people seem to insist on breeding like rats regardless of the reality staring them in the face, will ensure a mass die off. I'd expect this to be quite soon and exacerbated by scarcity initiated war.
In the rich west many will soon question whether it really is a good idea to subsidize child production. Our resources could be better spent on managing population decline and the husbanding of our own delicately unbalanced ecosystems, however, we have universally visionless governments and humankind has always been reactive rather than imaginative - so prepare for the worst everybody.
when we've copulated the furloins and populated the purloins and used and poisoned the planet all up doing urgent, ambivalent things, there will be nothing left to eat but people...scrawny, sickly people, at that...and probably without buns or condiments...not even a crisp leaf of lettuce, or a juicy dill pickle wedge...
and what about urine and feces?
even heated, that ain't a cup of French Onion soup...
The laziest man I ever knew was a co worker. He slept on the job, and disappeared every chance he got, just to avoid doing what he was being paid to do.
He was a Bible thumper and whenever some such photo or essay came to his attention he would piously intone that 'Man shall work by the sweat of his brow'.
The only time he broke a sweat was when the temperature rose above 78 degrees.
Agriculture is the main problem.
That's not a typo, nor am I a lunatic. Agriculture uses too much water and land. Permaculture could feed 6 or greater times the amount of people on the same amount of land, using a fraction of the water, and is not dependent on irrigation.
The food is healthier and the crops require no chemicals. Yes, you read correctly.
Never heard of permaculture? Look it up!
Hey, Moondoggy!
Following your suggestion, I just read a bit on permaculture, and rewilding, and this sounds very much like what I envision as the best way forward, as it addresses several of life's facets, from physical necessities to psychological grounding, relating them all to a natural, sustainable standard...a hearty endorsement, with my usual tirades against industry and electricity thrown in there, along with my plugs for replacing such with greater presences of sex, marijuana and music, of course...thanks for the brain seed!
Had my first homegrown tomato yesterday, and it was a satisfying and confirming revelation of unbelievebly wonderful flavor compared to whatever those things in the store they call tomatoes really are...our first hard-earned garden (reclaimed 230 sq. ft. of absolutely wasted southern-exposed land) has done so well that we are planning to expand substantially next season...as the vertical gardening idea suggests, space can be found all over, if one starts looking...
That's awesome dubet! So happy to hear your garden report. Been waiting several months for that. Yes vertical gardening... My squash is rambling all over through the other beds and so are my grapes. Need to get them climbing. It's a jungle out there!
I'm off on a 4 day wilderness backpacking trip to explore some very local mountains I've only peered into from the edge. So I'm off into the big wild to renew my spirit. Then back to the big harvest. Yeehaw!
There is nothing to worry about; by 2050 wars will wipe out 50% of the populations of the earth. In fact surviving national governments will be offering incentives to repopulate the plant once again.
There's a lot of ignorance from the "population control" freaks on here.
What's even worse than their lack of understanding of the underlying cause is their lack of any solutions, other than "Kill em all" (which is the implied statement behind their "famine or war will take care of the problem"). The underlying cause of high birth rates is a combination of high infant mortality, poorly educated women, and low std of living. As these indicators improve, population almost *universally* falls. India's population growth rate (to take one example) has been on a steady decline from over 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 now and is projected to fall to .5 by mid century. So, the real task is not to wish for famine or war (neither of which will be comfortable for the zealots either since it will raise prices and create global instability) but to figure out a way of feeding the population for the next few decades in an enviromentally sustainable way. I think its doable, but only if we act and contribute in a meaningful way, not by posting apocolyptic suggestions from the comfort of a computer screen.
I just want to add, that while we wait for population growth rates to decrease, and then the population itself to decrease, it would be best to reduce the huge inequality in consumption levels. When some people consume way more than their fair share of resources, it obviously leaves far less for other people. And this applies to the rich and the elite in all the countries. It's important to understand concepts such as "ecological footprint" and "water footprint". While India's population growth rate may be going down, consumption by the more affluent sections of the population may be increasing - and that will inevitably mean less to go around for India's poor. After all, the resources (whether within a country or globally) are finite. Consumption levels MUST go down everywhere - especially in western countries. But there's no reason for China, India and other countries to repeat the mistakes made by the western countries.