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Snow Job in the Desert

by Paul Krugman

In February 2003, Secretary of State Colin Powell, addressing the United Nations Security Council, claimed to have proof that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction. He did not, in fact, present any actual evidence, just pictures of buildings with big arrows pointing at them saying things like “Chemical Munitions Bunker.” But many people in the political and media establishments swooned: they admired Mr. Powell, and because he said it, they believed it.

Mr. Powell’s masters got the war they wanted, and it soon became apparent that none of his assertions had been true.

Until recently I assumed that the failure to find W.M.D., followed by years of false claims of progress in Iraq, would make a repeat of the snow job that sold the war impossible. But I was wrong. The administration, this time relying on Gen. David Petraeus to play the Colin Powell role, has had remarkable success creating the perception that the “surge” is succeeding, even though there’s not a shred of verifiable evidence to suggest that it is.

Thus Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institution - the author of “The Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq” - and his colleague Michael O’Hanlon, another longtime war booster, returned from a Pentagon-guided tour of Iraq and declared that the surge was working. They received enormous media coverage; most of that coverage accepted their ludicrous self-description as critics of the war who have been convinced by new evidence.

A third participant in the same tour, Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reported that unlike his traveling companions, he saw little change in the Iraq situation and “did not see success for the strategy that President Bush announced in January.” But neither his dissent nor a courageous rebuttal of Mr. O’Hanlon and Mr. Pollack by seven soldiers actually serving in Iraq, published in The New York Times, received much media attention.

Meanwhile, many news organizations have come out with misleading reports suggesting a sharp drop in U.S. casualties. The reality is that this year, as in previous years, there have been month-to-month fluctuations that tell us little: for example, July 2006 was a low-casualty month, with only 43 U.S. military fatalities, but it was also a month in which the Iraqi situation continued to deteriorate. And so far, every month of 2007 has seen more U.S. military fatalities than the same month in 2006.

What about civilian casualties? The Pentagon says they’re down, but it has neither released its numbers nor explained how they’re calculated. According to a draft report from the Government Accountability Office, which was leaked to the press because officials were afraid the office would be pressured into changing the report’s conclusions, U.S. government agencies “differ” on whether sectarian violence has been reduced. And independent attempts by news agencies to estimate civilian deaths from news reports, hospital records and other sources have not found any significant decline.

Now, there are parts of Baghdad where civilian deaths probably have fallen - but that’s not necessarily good news. “Some military officers,” reports Leila Fadel of McClatchy, “believe that it may be an indication that ethnic cleansing has been completed in many neighborhoods and that there aren’t as many people to kill.”

Above all, we should remember that the whole point of the surge was to create space for political progress in Iraq. And neither that leaked G.A.O. report nor the recent National Intelligence Estimate found any political progress worth mentioning. There has been no hint of sectarian reconciliation, and the Iraqi government, according to yet another leaked U.S. government report, is completely riddled with corruption.

But, say the usual suspects, General Petraeus is a fine, upstanding officer who wouldn’t participate in a campaign of deception - apparently forgetting that they said the same thing about Mr. Powell.

First of all, General Petraeus is now identified with the surge; if it fails, he fails. He has every incentive to find a way to keep it going, in the hope that somehow he can pull off something he can call success.

And General Petraeus’s history also suggests that he is much more of a political, and indeed partisan, animal than his press would have you believe. In particular, six weeks before the 2004 presidential election, General Petraeus published an op-ed article in The Washington Post in which he claimed - wrongly, of course - that there had been “tangible progress” in Iraq, and that “momentum has gathered in recent months.”

Is it normal for serving military officers to publish articles just before an election that clearly help an incumbent’s campaign? I don’t think so.

So here we go again. It appears that many influential people in this country have learned nothing from the last five years. And those who cannot learn from history are, indeed, doomed to repeat it.

Paul Krugman is Professor of Economics at
Princeton University and a regular New York Times columnist. His most recent book is The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century.

© 2007 The New York Times

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32 Comments so far

  1. fedupwithpolitics September 3rd, 2007 11:49 am

    It’s safe to say that the Bush administration has by now purged the military of all sane, dissenting voices, leaving only those stooges and sycophants who place blind loyalty to their leader above their duty to the Constitution and the people of this nation. Colin Powell’s shame lives on in Petraeus.

  2. Kernel September 3rd, 2007 12:20 pm

    This administration has proved that they can scare enough people (including Congress) to push through every illegal scheme they desire. With FOX leading the way, our media meekly follows along, blabbing all misinformation as if it is the only truth and nothing but the truth. When it is time to be really scared, TOO LATE!!!

  3. I.M. Pissedoff September 3rd, 2007 12:26 pm

    It is NOW time to be in the streets.
    Time to be the commentator, the truth-sayer.
    Time to issue the Wake Up Call to all those who would rather get their truth from FOX News and the others.
    Father, Mother,God…. Bless the Planet and the People on it, every one without exception.

  4. Neil Uecke September 3rd, 2007 12:47 pm

    I missed the Sunday morning news that keeps me informed about what’s important. Can anyone tell me what’s new with Paris Hilton.

  5. terryb September 3rd, 2007 12:55 pm

    everything to come out of their mouths has been a constant stream of lies. there is absolutly no credibility left.

  6. george w. bush September 3rd, 2007 1:10 pm

    General Betray-us.

  7. TW September 3rd, 2007 1:16 pm

    Gotta love Wolf Blitzer and all the merry newmakers who preempt reporting on the war with meaningless trite about some senator in some bathroom in some town. That trumps all the deaths in Iraq. American media at its #*%#$%$#$%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. Josh September 3rd, 2007 1:24 pm

    Pundits like Kenneth Pollack and O’Hanlon who failed to diagnose the situation even close to accurately should not be give a free pass. I would fire my finacial advisor for a much smaller misunderstanding of facts on the ground. Yet without even mentioning their baseless past assessments of dire “threats”, these and many other of the same pundits, inlcuding columinsts, think-tank “experts” and regularly features commentators, are invited by mainstream media to try again and again.

  9. frank1569 September 3rd, 2007 1:41 pm

    The Cheneybush “plan” calls for a permanent military presence in the Middle East until either the oil runs out or Jesus shows up. Many still have trouble accepting this, in spite of the fact that it’s no secret. Once accepted, however, it’s clear that said plan is working perfectly, which is why calls for “withdraw” are ignored - the corrupt players on both sides of the aisle support the “plan.”

    And the Loonitary Decider is about to illegally bomb Iran just to make sure America never leaves the desert.

  10. Richard Paine September 3rd, 2007 2:16 pm

    Tired of the snow jobs? Well take off September 11th and get some rest….no work, no school, no shopping, no news. And while you’re enjoying the day maybe talk over with friends, neighbors and strangers how ‘We The People’ are really feeling about things in general. I think you might be surprized what you hear. Listen as well as express views.
    Then find the date for the next town, city, county meeting and go there and speak your truth… maybe something along the lines of ‘Elected Officials you have sworn Oaths to support Charters and State and US Constitutions’
    as citizens we are calling upon you to call for the Impeachment of Bush et al and then Prosecution. We do this because we seem to have no say on a national level…but we do right here in our yards. And by gathering towns and cities and counties we then have states and it is this gathering of states which is the USA which is tired of snow jobs and blow jobs et al.

  11. UN-common-dreams September 3rd, 2007 2:17 pm

    Someone asks about the Paris Hilton: Not much is new, -people go in, pay their money, then go home again after a short spell inside. -Oh, and it’s very expensive. It’s a bit like the London Hilton, but smells different. Why do you ask? ;)

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Colin Powell shouldn’t be mocked for his little slip-up at United Nations Security Council dinner party that night; -anyone could make that simple mistake.
    Why, even now, I have maps on my classroom wall which indicate that there are indeed Weapons of Maths Destruction hidden deep under the carpet of the Maths Dept staff room.

    And in my hand, (un)even as I type, I have a little vial…

    -a little vile ‘what’ you ask?

    It is a little *vile* thing known as The American Government, and be assured, it is very *VERY* dangerous, and if released into the wild it will, -per-FORCE, cause many, MANY thousands of totally unnecessary deaths…

    But don’t be alarmed, we have the situation well under control. Just send us a check for about 60 billion dollars and we’ll take away all your nightmares…

    …and give you a Brand Spanking New set!

    :(
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Senator Larry Craig’s *Footnote*:

    *Handy Tip for The Day*

    Next time you go to the men’s washroom and feel a foot nudging yours beneath the cubicle divide, try not to reciprocate. It could turn out be a dirty old Republican man with a large *election*, trying to inveigle you into consenting sex using a rigged ballot…

    ~ You Have Been Warned!

  12. UN-common-dreams September 3rd, 2007 2:27 pm

    “Footnote” …

    Lol

  13. kirby September 3rd, 2007 3:25 pm

    All this talk about the great general Petraus nauseates me. He ordered, and was sent, 120 thousand automatic weapons which he LOST somewhere in Iraq!!! He also lost an equal number of body armor units and helmets. How great do you think that is? And guess who now has all those weapons and other stuff.

    Petraus ought to be in jail !

  14. ezeflyer September 3rd, 2007 3:37 pm

    Would Edwards incorporate We the People?

  15. bakunin September 3rd, 2007 3:46 pm

    The criminal incompetents running the show in Washington (and I DON’T just mean the Repugs) are toiling away day in and day out making it a certainty that the US will lose its bid for world hegemony within the next few years–probably sooner rather than later. If it isn’t via a catastrophic foreign policy it will be via catastrophic economic policies which have turned us into the greatest debtor nation, a nation kept afloat only as long as our creditors like China and Japan continue to hold our “paper” ie treasury notes. We have given in to corruption on every level, but, you know, its not the first time in history that this has happened to an arrogant empire. Just look at Britain and Spain at the height of their empires and now.

  16. mudduck September 3rd, 2007 3:52 pm

    “It appears that many influential people in this country have learned nothing from the last five years. And those who cannot learn from history are, indeed, doomed to repeat it.” — Paul Krugman

    Yes, they’ve learned from the last five years — that they can portray reality any way they like, the corporate media will publish it, and neither the Democrats nor anybody else will ever hold them accountable. And yes, they look like repeating previous successes, and it’s us who are doomed to repeat it.

    Can we shake the idea that the corporate media is supposed to portray reality, and the pundits are supposed to analyse and critique it? Both are hired and funded to publish a narrative that will misinform enough people to maintain their support, and confuse and divide the majority. Yes, Mr. Krugman, even The New York Times. The NYTs prints enough information to preserve its reputation as a news source, and it also prints pure political propaganda on Page One as required.

    A commenter at the Oil Drum blog came up with the perfect metaphor — in reading the corporate media, they said, we’re “Living in the Hologram.” Corporate news is indeed a holodeck. But beware. It’s mostly an illusion, but it’s deadly.

  17. bottle September 3rd, 2007 4:06 pm

    This column lays out things exceptionally
    well. And therefore makes me want to barf.

  18. lunafish September 3rd, 2007 5:55 pm

    “But many people in the political and media establishments swooned: they admired Mr. Powell, and because he said it, they believed it.

    Mr. Powell’s masters got the war they wanted, and it soon became apparent that none of his assertions had been true.”

    It has occured to me that Powell was “selected” to deliver the news so that when it was discovered to be a hoax, it would be no great loss if he had to “resign” since he wasn’t really part of the “clan”.

    I think the same may be true with our current Sec. of State. I believe they were seen as disposable in Rove/Cheney’s calculations. They’ll love the priviliges until you cut them off because they were publicly exposed. Seems to be Rove/Cheney’s MO with high level pawns.

  19. dreamertoo September 3rd, 2007 8:47 pm

    “We had a chance to change our minds, but somehow wisdom was hard to find;
    We went with what we knew and now we can’t go back. But we had a chance to change our minds.”
    Neil Young

  20. jimo September 3rd, 2007 8:57 pm

    A few weeks ago, on a more open-minded forum, I predicted the obvious: that, despite General Petraeus’ well-earned reputation for integrity and professionalism, there would be “some long political knives waiting for him, come September”.

    Today I added: How’s this for the glint of one, flashing in the New York Times, right on schedule:

    Published on Monday, September 3, 2007 by The New York Times

    Snow Job in the Desert

    by Paul Krugman

  21. hybridoma2001 September 3rd, 2007 10:58 pm

    Snow Job, and talk about climate change. It sure has been. Just one more damaged or destroyed area of government thanks to the president. We now can say the military has been politicized. I’m guessing here, but the armed forces have always tended to be conservative and one would find more republicans in the ranks of the military than those with different political ideals. But I’m guessing that our supposedly civilian controlled military been never corrupted to the point they are today. And I’m not even going to get into the tax payer funded “Private” companies hiring mercenaries at our expense. Heck of job Georgie.

  22. gde September 3rd, 2007 11:36 pm

    fedupwithpolitics was 100% correct at the top of the comment section. I note, that with all the generals and admirals in the US, Bush has only had to fire a total of 3, to the best of my knowledge, over more than 4 years, to keep the rest in line.

    The US military, and its dishonest, disfunctional culture, is a major cause of this God damned war.

  23. blessthebeasts September 4th, 2007 12:44 am

    It is so amazing that this administration has been able to control the agenda on this war, even as it has failed miserably every step of the way! Even today, with the silly orchestrated “surprise” visit to Iraq, the press dutifully reported the nonsense spewing from Bush’s mouth as if it actually made sense. I’m sure we’ll see more of the same on September 11 when Betrayus gives his “progress report.” God help us all, especially the Iraqis.

  24. dreamertoo September 4th, 2007 1:03 am

    General (David) Petraeus and Ambassador (Ryan) Crocker will give their much-anticipated assessment of the situation in Iraq before Congress next Tuesday, September 11th; what serendipity!

  25. commonman03 September 4th, 2007 1:34 am

    Rule Number One. Tell a lie often enough and it will be accepted as truth. (Joseph Goebbels)

    It doesn’t appear that anyone in the States really cares anyway. If they did, there would be marches on Washington, there would be impeachment proceedings, there would be action.

    What you have instead is a boot stomping on a human face forever. Orwell’s perpetual war.

    The only hope is that China takes a protective stance and forbids U.S. military action. They’ve been conducting joint military exercises with Russia lately. If anyone can tag team Team America, they should be able to. Someone has to stand up to this bully.

  26. Treefrog September 4th, 2007 10:15 am

    Ethnic cleansing maybe be complete in some areas. George Bush and Dick Cheney are monsters because they knew this would happen. Collin Powell said more than once that sectarian violence and instability in the region was the reason George HW did not support a full scale war with Iraq. There is no government there to replace the current dictatorship, he said.

    We are almost at that point here.

  27. SecularAnimist September 4th, 2007 10:59 am

    Paul Krugman wrote: “It appears that many influential people in this country have learned nothing from the last five years.”

    On the contrary, “many influential people in this country” — e.g. Cheney, Bush, the Pentagon leadership, the Republican Party, the corporate-owned mass media, the “analysts” and “pundits” of the corporate-funded right-wing “think tanks” and other wholly-owned subsidiaries of America’s ultra-rich neo-fascist corporate-feudalist ruling class — have learned just how easily they can deceive the American people with blatant lies.

  28. kivals September 4th, 2007 11:33 am

    commonman03,

    Goebbels also said that it was not necessary to get the intellectuals to go along as they were powerless to move the great mass of the people. I think Rove could lecture us all on Goebbels.

  29. Seabat September 4th, 2007 1:59 pm

    Petraeus and Crocker will paint a rosey picture for GW and Deadeye Dick. They know who’s buttering their bread. It’s more of the same BS: “Brownie, your doin’ a helluva job”, “Smoke ‘em out of their holes”, “Axis of Evil”, “If ya ain’t with us, then you’re agin us”, “Remember the 9/11 Evildoers”, “Mission accomplished”. Congress must stop behaving like a bunch of spineless jellyfish, and cut the funding for this fiasco. And to hell with GW’s legacy!! Iraq will either sink or swim without US. The other Arab countries can pitch in. $3 billion per month, as well as the cost in American and Iraqi lives is too steep of a price. We can pay for our own own oil. Halliburton and Brown & Root have stolen enough from the American public. It’s probably too late for impeacjment.

  30. richard young September 4th, 2007 11:04 pm

    Anyway, thanks Mr. Krugman for speaking the truth. I for one am not about to give up; but it is discouraging to realize that there is a decidedly bipartisan and dominant “War Party” in Congress that would be only to happy to bomb Iran (or Venezuela or any other disobedient country) back into the Stone Age — or forward into the “civilized world” as they would have it. I realize that the US has never lived up to its professed ideals, but how have we fallen so far in so brief a time?

  31. peterholmes September 6th, 2007 1:21 am

    It’s interesting how Krugman deftly diagnoses this administration’s problem with truthiness (aka: lying) as well as the media’s complicity in broadcasting those lies, and then just stops right there. Why? How come this esteemed economist shies away from addressing the bigger questions, ie, what are the conditions that have created the beholden state of our media and government? By simply railing against this administration and media, Krugman does this country a disservice, because many will read his column and then blame our goverment and media. But really they are each just symptoms of a much larger affliction, and blaming them will never lead any real change in our lives. The truth is that we the American people have become trapped by our own economy, which was usurped by international bankers back in 1913 with the creation of the Federal Reserve, which is NOT a part of the government. Listen to the words of Woodrow Wilson, who presided over the transition: “…we have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated, governments in the civilized world–no longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and the duress of small groups of dominant men.” To the extent that Krugman fails to publicize this crucial and seminal cause, he is merely participating in the ongoing deception of the American people. As for us, until we regain control over our financial institutions, we will continue to suffer under their bottom line.

  32. plenum September 6th, 2007 11:42 am

    “Truth” doesn’t matter to them - nor will using the “truth” work if we try to use it against them. The “truth” doesn’t matter one whit to them. Come on, guys and gals… Take the step. Time to do what they do.

    A bit of violence, well placed and timed, can be a very effective thing against them. We know that and they know that.

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