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Climate Change Risk Underestimated: Study
WASHINGTON - The risk posed to mankind and the environment by even small changes in average global temperatures is much higher than believed even a few years ago, a study said Monday.
An aerial view shows melting glaciers near Ilulissat in Greenland. Published by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the study updated a 2001 assessment by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change that looked at temperature changes and the risks they pose.
"Today, we have to assume that the risks of negative impacts of climate change on humans and nature are larger than just a few years ago," said Hans-Martin Fussel, one of the authors of the report.
The new study found that even small changes of global mean temperatures could produce the kinds of conditions singled out as "reasons for concern" in the 2001 assessment.
Those included risks to threatened systems such as coral reefs or endangered species; and extreme weather events like cyclones, heat waves or droughts.
Other "reasons for concern" involved the way the impact of climate change is distributed, the aggregate damage caused and the risk of "large scale discontinuities" such as the deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheets.
"Compared with results reported in the (2001 assessment), smaller increases in GMT (global mean temperatures) are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the five 'reasons for concern,'" the study said.
The report said its conclusions were based in part on observations of impacts already occurring because of global warming and better understanding of the risks associated with rising mean temperatures.
They also were based on "growing evidence that even modest increases in GMT (global mean temperature) above levels circa 1990 could commit the climate system to the risk of very large impacts on multiple century time scales," the study said.
Three of the authors of the latest report contributed to the 2001 assessment's chapter on "reasons for concern."
"If the associated risks are larger, the necessity is also larger to reduce the greenhouse gases emissions and to support affected regions to cope with the unavoidable consequences of climate change," Fussel said in a statement.
It was the third report published in recent weeks carrying grim news about climate change.
On February 15, a report by Chris Field, of the Carnegie Institution and a former member of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, warned that greenhouse gases have accumulated more rapidly in the atmosphere between 2000 and 2007 than anticipated.
Three weeks before that, a study by Susan Solomon, the senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said changes in surface temperature, rainfall and sea level are "largely irreversible for more than 1,000 years after CO2 emissions are completely stopped."



12 Comments so far
Show AllMother Nature to humans : " Your money or your life"
Good one.
Low tech solution. Get rid of the private auto.
http://freepublictransit.org
You either live in a city or reside near a subsidized Amtrack commuter train.
It has been shown that public transit fares cost more to collect than is collected in many cases. Fares exist to discourage use. This is a tariff that subsidizes autosprawl.
Free public transit can be implemented for 60 basis points of sales tax. There is an international movement to implement free public transit. Most recent addition: Aubagne, France.
Amtrak is not subsidized. It is not a private for-profit firm, but a public investment. The oil, coal, and auto companies make a profit and most of their costs, including clmate disruption and oil wars, are paid by the public -- i.e. subsidized profits.
http://freepublictransit.org
SAVE THE PLANET, KILL YOURSELF
No. Dispense with such thoughts ezeflyer. We need more progressives like you, so I say be fruitful and multiply! I like reading nearly everyone on this site. Better to specify "Hawks and religious Neocons kill yourselves." :D But the problem is: Like Jim Jones, they want to take everyone with them!
But mass extinctions are coming if the geologic fossil record is any guide. No species has ever escaped the specter of mass famine in the face of both exploding population and declining food supply. In fact, I maintain that famine is a natural regulating mechanism of natural selection. We have managed to outsmart it for a long while through agriculture, but just like the economy, we can only go so far on slight of hand. Eventually the fall is greater than if we had just quit feeding the third world through "globalization" and credit where there was nothing backing it up.
All we can do is keep the noise up. Let our fellow citizens know of the understated facts as they become known. In ten to Fifty years, If the Greenland Icecap by itself breaks up, the oceans will rise twenty feet and cause mass migrations. Mass migrations of course mean mass war and disease. It has happened before, It will happen again.
By declaring war on coal and then oil and then clearcut burning, we might buy ourselves a hundred years. By advocating mass sterilization, we might limit our numbers to a sustainable level. But you can guess how popular that idea is going to be!
Well, at least with the internet we have a front row seat to the end of the world.
Click here to see what started the end: http://www.artofmarkbryan.com Then scroll down to or click on "mad tea party."
TJ
"All tyranny needs to gain a foothold is for people of good conscience to remain silent." - Thomas Jefferson
"underestimated" by who? Oh, I got it, by everyone who now wants to say 'how could we have known'.
let's resign oursleves to the fact that we are going to
1. live in declining environments - with the wars, famines, conflicts and refugees attendant with those issues
2. the rothschild banking cartel/debt machine is going to use the american imperial army (and those of the eu and nato) to continue to theft of the third world, most notably the oil at this moment but it could be any number of resources
3. we, the people, are consigned to living off the scraps of the rich
hey wait......all that is happening right now
oh well..........
cheers, b
I agree. In La Jornada this morning there was a fairly lengthy article about the coming world war resulting from the chaos of refugeeism created by climate change.
pat: check out climate wars by gwynne dyer, a noted military analyst who says he wrote this book due to all of the war game planning his military friends are into
http://www.pej.org/html/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=6719&mode=thread&order=0&thold=0
cheers, b
Attention in the area! Attention, fellow lemmings, attention!
There is a "large scale discontinuity" ahead. I repeat: There is a cliff ahead. Stop Running!
This is not a drill. This is not a drill.
Prepare.
March 2 in DC, at the coal power plant, to be counted.