Climate Change: Coastal Mega-Cities in for a Bumpy Ride
NEW YORK - About 643 million people, or one-tenth of the world’s population, who live in low lying coastal areas are at great risk of oceans-related impacts of climate change, according to a global research study to be released next month.The study, by researchers at Columbia University’s Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network and the London-based International Institute for Environment and Development, is the first of its kind. The researchers identified populations, particularly urban populations, at greatest risk from rising sea levels and more intense storms due to climate change.
“Of the more than 180 countries with populations in the low-elevation coastal zone, 130 of them — about 70 percent — have their largest urban area extending into that zone,” said Bridget Andersen, a research associate at CIESIN, in a statement.
“Furthermore, the world’s largest cities — those with more than five million residents — have on average one-fifth of their population and one-sixth of their land area within this coastal zone.”
The study, which will be published in the peer-reviewed journal Environment and Urbanization, assesses the risks to populations and urban settlements along coastal areas that are less than 10 meters above sea level, referred to as the low-elevation coastal zone, or LECZ. Although globally this zone accounts for only two percent of the world’s land area, it contains 10 percent of the world’s population and 13 percent of the world’s urban population, the study found.
The 10 countries with the largest number of people living in this vulnerable, low-elevation zone, include in descending order: China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, Japan, Egypt, the United States, Thailand and the Philippines.
Cities such as Dhaka, Shanghai and Mumbai are some of the most susceptible to coastal, climate-related hazards such as floods, storms and cyclones. And the rapid urbanization occurring in these cities — especially in China, which has growing special economic zones along its coasts — will continue to attract more and more people.
“On average, coastal cities are growing 20 percent faster than any other cities in the world and they have 10-15 percent higher densities than other cities,” Sharad Shankardass, spokesperson for the U.N.’s agency for human settlements, UN-Habitat, told IPS. “Of the 20 mega-cities in the world, 15 of them are coastal.”
The study found that 75 percent of people living in the vulnerable low-elevation zone and two-thirds of the world’s urban population are in Asia. In conjunction with the findings of the CIESIN-IIED study, 11 of the 15 coastal mega-cities listed by UN-Habitat in 2005 are in low-medium income countries. The study found that 14 percent of the population of least developed countries live in the LECZ, compared to only 10 percent in wealthier countries.
Twenty-one percent of the urban populations in least developed countries live in this zone. In richer countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, this number drops to 11 percent. Human settlements in lower income countries with limited resources are, therefore, significantly more vulnerable to climate-related hazards.
“It is very clear in my mind that poor countries will have a disproportionate burden,” Deborah Balk, a project investigator and co-author of the study, told IPS, “particularly those with large deltaic regions.”
In fact, of the top 10 countries, Bangladesh, Egypt and Vietnam have a large proportion of their populations living within the LECZ: 46, 38 and 55 percent respectively. The Bahamas, the Netherlands, and Suriname have well over 70 percent of their populations living in the LECZ.
The study was partially funded by the Swedish International Development Corporation Agency and the Danish International Development Agency, both of which have programs in urban environmental issues. Researchers overlaid geographic data, the most recently available census data, and information on urban settlements, to produce maps showing the populations and land area in the LECZ for 244 countries. The information was then summarized by country, region and income category.
The study makes it clear that sea levels are not expected to rise anywhere near the 10 meters of the low-elevation zone. The fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report estimated that sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 centimeters between 1990 and the 2080s. This level could be significantly higher with accelerated melting of the Greenland and polar ice sheets, the study noted.
Although small island states have the largest share of land in the low-elevation zone (16 percent), and would, therefore, be most likely to be affected by sea-related hazards, they tend to have less of their population living in the zone. Balk attributed this to the fact that people living on such islands are more adapted to coastal hazards and tend to live further inland.
“The study demonstrates how critical an issue this is from a global perspective — it is certainly not just one for small island states,” Gordon McGranahan, head of the human settlements group at IIED and co-author on the study, told IPS.
According to Tanya Imola, spokesperson for the international association of local governments, ICLEI, many cities have started implementing environmental programs to address climate change and to curb their overall carbon footprint. Initiatives include improvements to public transportation, recycling programs and energy efficiency. But only a few cities have started thinking about how to address the effects of sea level rise and other ocean-related hazards.
The authors of the CIESIN-IIED study categorize three types of responses to address these risks: migration, mitigation and modification. Both McGranahan and Balk agreed that these strategies have a long lead time.
UN-Habitat and the U.N. Environment Program have initiated joint projects to address these issues, but UN-Habitat’s Shankardass pointed out that “we are still in the early stages of establishing a realistic strategy for intervention and implementation for cities that will be directly affected by climate change.”
Of utmost importance, McGranahan noted, is to start working with national and local authorities engaged in urban and environmental issues, and for them to start making commitments to these types of strategies now.
“Ultimately, adaptation has to be negotiated locally, and so we want to combine this sort of global analysis with local engagement,” he told IPS.
Copyright 2007 IPS - Inter Press Service
Nationalize our natural resources —
why should a few private citizens have control over oil/gas resources?
Electric cars could be on our roads in mere weeks — See: Who Killed The Electric Car?
Capitalism is the system which has brought this about — basing the “value” of anything on the artificially created dollar bill is suicidal.
It cannot be ignored that some say it is already too late; however, we have to act on our spiritual connection to nature — to our planet and the universe — and do whatever we can to preserve whatever we can.
Here’s a way to do responsible personal transport: You pay off your house quickly so you don’t have to make as much money, so you don’t have to commute to work as much, and that also cuts the Pentagon’s take. Ride the bus to work most of the time. Keep a car mostly for weekend outings. Keep it for 20 years.
The car you specify to your local craftsman: Under 1200 lbs, with a 20 hp turbo diesel, 40% efficient, driving an 80% efficient generator, battery, motor system, with regeneration from deceleration (stops and downhills). The diesel drives only the generator. 100 mpg. Negotiate puchase and lifetime service for $10k. Non-proprietary, no capital dependencies.
Contract with your local small farmer for biodiesel, $2.50/gal. for a 120 gal. annual supply in your garage tank. You get 12k annual miles for $300. Limit the land area to one acre, and the production energy to 40 extra gal. of biodiesel (total 1.3 acres). Specify no water, no synthetic inputs, no proprietary genetics. Oil pressings returned to the field. Specify a tree crop (sequesters carbon)with a long taproot (builds soil/water), integral genetic selection (top working), mixed with several local species. Verify compliance.
This employs people in efficient, accountable small enterprises, supresses oil wars, carbon emissions, waste/plunder, and preserves ecosystems. It’s up to people, not capital.
Some people will have water up around their ears and will still want to argue the realities of global warming.
Hau “conscience”..Im with you on this one as far as our own spiritual natures are concerened..I do fear its a bit too late now for anything other than what I think is called “damage control”.
There are people who are going to die….and thats a fact…just like they do everyday around the world, and seem to be gone and forgotten as just another figure in the news, then on to the next piece of news such as the latest petrol engine car on the market. We are very fickle as
a species!!
Anyway the news is that possibly a third of the world will fall when the “big wave” comes..maybe more like half.
Do what is in your heart to make this time good for you and your kin. I dont think any amount of survival training is going to help either..so you can forget stock piling the tins of beans!
Sorry for the break in transmission half way through!
Ho WalkingBear
@ rtdrury
Please elaborate on more complete sources, thanks.
walkingbear,
Please remember that it isn’t just our species that is at risk of losing its foothold on our living planet. We humans, as the instigators of this crisis, now have a responsibility to all the life of the planet — you break it you fix it, best you can. A planetary consciousness demands action now, not self-obsessed retreat. Such retreat would be not just suicidal, but genocidal and ecocidal.
I say, these are the most meaningful times we could ever hope to live within. All of our actions can now be framed within a planetary context. What else is there to do but to work to change our civilization’s fundamental flaws?
So, yeah, let’s push for nationalization of fossil fuels (though that’s a bit of an irony considering our current government is led by the fossil fuel industry). Along those lines, we can push for decentralizing energy production, remove the necessity for cars as much as possible through development of public transporation systems and bicycle paths and better city planning, demand building codes that require eco-friendly structures, engage our communities about the perils of blind consumerism, restrict our air travel, …, ask questions, talk to our friends and family and neighbors and strangers. This is it! This is the time.
We have not done well, it is true,, and there seem to be many of the powerful who care only for their power and their wealth, which won’t mean much to them if civilization falls apart. If all we can do is write to our senators and representatives, let’s at least do that. And let’s walk softly on the earth. It’s the only one we have.
I agree with you about not just our species, but it is our arrogance that thinks tha we will destroy the world. What we are destroying is what is the lie of our civilised world. We have created the greatest lie in the world, that what we (and our governments) want is more better best..and screw the planet. Our responsibility is not to any government, but to Mother Earth and her inhabitants…the more you take back the power from those who would keep you asleep and feed you lies. Remember that “authority is not power”. Power is a rainstorm or a typhoon. Laws are just paper.
If “civilised mankind” is going to get washed away, then the Earth will still be here. Its not our destiny to destroy Her. Its our destiny to destroy the civilising process tha we’re hooked into. that will happen..have no doubt about it..the virus will to be stopped by the Earth antibodies..be they fire famine, flood, whatever.
As you say, the fact we will (and already have’ destroyed countless other species, because of our disrespect for our planet..is a travesty.
In the end is all down to personal responsibility..do what you can to help others, and walk with Love and not fear in your heart. Im not for a self obsessed retreat…Im for action..and that starts with each one of us acting and behaving in a responsible way as a child of this planet..not a lord of it.
I like the idea of Nationalizing our resources. I think we can now learn from what they are doing in South America. Chavez has the right idea.
Priviteizing is just a fancy way of stealing things for personal gain. The oligarchy as they are, seem to have an insatiable greed that I can’t quite understand. It is destructive and unsustainable.
Man what does it take to get a decent human being into office. The coruption at this time is very deep and almost unfathomable to the average American.
Reading some of the comments here gives me some hope.
I share your respect and reverance for our Mother Earth and appreciate your call for action as children, brothers and sisters of all the Earth’s life. I don’t mean to invoke arrogance when describing the consequences of our human actions. It’s just that we truly are dangerous children — as you note, we have already set in motion the Earth’s sixth mass extinction, and this civilization of ours will either perish because of this degradation or release itself from delusional arrogance and find a new relation to the living Earth. But yes, the Earth will survive our stain, if that’s how we choose to live and die upon Her. (Though, some scientists have speculated that Venus and its battery acid-like atmosphere may have once been a living planet which then suffered runaway carbon dioxide release, thereby killing all organic life which may have once thrived there. Could we trigger a similar death of Earth? I don’t think it’s arrogance that leads some scientists to warn of such a possibility here — even a child can wield a killing gun.)
I remain hopeful that we talking apes will find our place again in short time, that we will radically transform our social order in relation to ourselves and the Earth, rather than destroy ourselves and countless more living beings.
Hope, Adam, is our strongest emotion..and we are capable of great things as well as our immense childish arrogance. Let us Hope then and Pray too.
Please go to youtube and watch this little film..it is simply wonderful:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lVSmLpNK45Q
Mitakuye Oyasin
L’ours qui marche
Nietzsche March 29th, 2007 10:29 am
“Some people will have water up around their ears and will still want to argue the realities of global warming.”
Yeah, and they probably believe they can out-swim a tsunami.