From Devastation to Chaos: Tracking the Impact of Trade Policy Across All 50 States

Today, Public Citizen released a new set of fact sheets that track the toll of the NAFTA-WTO era and today’s chaotic trade policies on the workers, farmers, local communities in all 50 states in the U.S., covering lost manufacturing jobs and farms, shuttered factories, battered union membership, depressed wages, falling farm exports, and other effects of bad trade policies.

While this story is often associated only with the industrial Midwest, the latest data show significant job, farm, and income loss across the South and Northeast, as well in other areas of the country often left out of the discussion on trade.

The ongoing impacts of these losses still looms large in political battleground areas, and are especially relevant when talking about working-class politics in post-industrial and rural areas.

“For decades, both parties have promised working people that “free trade” deals would bring good jobs and rising wages,” said Melinda St. Louis, Global Trade Watch director at Public Citizen. “Instead, initiatives like the NAFTA and the WTO led to massive outsourcing, the closure of thousands of factories, the destruction of millions of good-paying jobs, and left rural and working-class communities abandoned nationwide — and current chaotic and corporate-friendly trade policies have only made matters worse.”

Key Revelations:

• ALMOST EVERY STATE GOT HIT HARD – The U.S. has about 4.4 million fewer manufacturing jobs today than in 1994, when NAFTA went into effect. Nationwide, more than 3 million workers were certified by the U.S. government as losing their jobs to trade policy during this period. The share of manufacturing jobs in 43 states dropped by more than 30% in that period and by more than 50% in 12 states.
• BATTLEGROUND STATES PARTICULARLY IMPACTED – One quarter of manufacturing job losses took place in the seven key 2024 battleground states. Overall, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin lost more than 1 million manufacturing jobs combined. Manufacturing’s share of total jobs in these states fell by nearly 40% on average, and union density fell by 46% on average, 10 points higher than the national average.
• THE DECLINE OF THE INDUSTRIAL HEARTLAND – Nearly one third of national manufacturing job losses came from just six states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Combined, these states lost more than 1,400,000 manufacturing jobs.
• HUGE LOSSES IN THE NORTHEAST – The Northeast, New England plus New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, lost more than 40% of its manufacturing jobs – more than any other region. New York and Rhode Island each lost more than half of their manufacturing jobs.
• THE SOUTHERN RUST BELT – In the Southern states, manufacturing’s share of total jobs dropped by more than 45%, 10 points higher than in the Midwest. This shift was most pronounced in North Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia, where the drop was more than 50%. North Carolina lost 365,000 manufacturing jobs—110,000 more jobs lost than Michigan, 54,000 more than Illinois, and 39,000 more than Ohio and Pennsylvania; and manufacturing’s share of total jobs dropped by 63%, worse than any other state.
• UNION MEMBERSHIP WAS DECIMATED – Ten states saw union density declines of more than 50%, five of which are in the South. Union density declined most in South Dakota, followed by Wisconsin and Arkansas, at 72%, 65%, and 63%, respectively. Nationwide, overall union density fell 35%, while only one state, Vermont, saw an increase.
• FARM LOSSES HIT HARDEST IN THE SOUTH – Of the 10 states that saw the largest proportional declines in the number of farm operations, six are in the South. Tennessee and North Carolina lost more than 30% of their farms, the highest percentage losses of any state. The South lost more than 140,000 farms, more than half from just three states: Tennessee, North Carolina, and Kentucky.
• WORKERS LEFT WITHOUT RELIEF – Since 2022, Congress has left over 100,000 workers who lost their jobs due to our trade policies stranded by failing to reauthorize the Trade Adjustment Assistance program. Almost a quarter of those workers are from just two states – Texas and Oregon. Thirty-two states had more than 1,000 workers who were awaiting assistance at the time.