Fabian said he'd based his report on information from "rescue services" as well as "footage that emerged showing the massive explosion caused by the missile’s warhead." No injuries were reported from the impact, as the missile struck an empty area outside the city of Beit Shemesh, near Jerusalem.
"What I thought was a seemingly minor incident during the war has turned into days of harassment and death threats against me," Fabian said.
Hours after posting the report to the paper's live blog, Fabian said he received an email, from a user identifying as Aviv, claiming that what had hit the ground was not a missile, but an interceptor fragment.
Fabian contended military sources had confirmed it was a missile and that the impact was far too large to have been from only an interceptor.
He then received another email from a user named Daniel with the exact same gripe. Daniel described having an "urgent request" for the report to be changed and told Fabian that by changing it, "you would be helping me, many others, and, of course, the state of Israel."
Daniel sent Fabian several more emails over the next couple of days demanding a correction, and the tone continued to grow more urgent.
"I ask again, if you could handle this as soon as possible, it would help us a lot," Daniel said on Thursday. "It’s really important, if possible, still this morning."
Other users messaged him with the same complaint over email and the messaging app Discord. It was only when Fabian received more angry replies from two more users on X that he realized what was going on.
"Checking those X accounts, both appeared to be involved in gambling on the Polymarket betting site," he explained. "As far as I now understand, the emails I received were intended to confirm whether or not a missile had hit Israel on March 10 in order to resolve a prediction on Polymarket."
Polymarket is a cryptocurrency-based prediction market where users buy and sell shares tied to real‑world events, enabling them to bet on the likelihood of future events, including those in wartime.
Fabian found that the people clamoring for his attention had put money on whether Iran would strike Israel on March 10. "This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No’,” the website explained. However, it stipulates that intercepted missiles would not receive a "yes" verdict.
As of March 16, gamblers had wagered more than $14 million on the event.
Over the next several days, requests continued to roll in from people demanding a correction to the story.
One user presented a fabricated email, purportedly from Fabian to Daniel, stating that the Israel Defense Forces had confirmed the missiles were intercepted and that he planned to correct the story.
Fabian was later approached by a colleague at another publication, who said his friend had asked him to reach out for the story to be changed. After being confronted, the friend admitted that he had money on the wager too, and offered some of his winnings to Fabian's colleague if he could persuade the journalist to change the story.
By the weekend, the messages had become violent. Fabian said a user identified as Haim accosted him with several threatening messages in Hebrew over WhatsApp:
"You have exactly half an hour to correct your attempt at influence,” Haim wrote. "Despite the fact that you received countless inquiries—you insist on leaving it that way.”
“If you do not correct this by 01:00 Israel time today, March 15, you are bringing upon yourself damage you have never imagined you would suffer,” he threatened, in a very lengthy message.
Haim also attempted to call me via WhatsApp multiple times during the night, before sending me more messages.
“You have no idea how much you’ve put yourself at risk. Today is the most significant day of your career. You have two choices: either believe that we have the capabilities, and after you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you."
Haim also threatened Fabian by referring "with specific details" to his home address, his parents, and family.
After receiving several more threats and being contacted by someone purporting to be a "lawyer," Fabian went to the police, who he said are now investigating the situation.
The threats continued into Monday, after Fabian ran into a bomb shelter amid another Iranian missile attack.
"The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed," Fabian said. "But I do worry that other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings."
He said that journalists are in a unique position to "exploit their knowledge for insider trading on the platform."
Polymarket and other similar "prediction market" apps like Kalshi have come under similar scrutiny in the United States for allowing users to place suspiciously timed bets on military actions taken by the Trump administration.
Earlier this month, the watchdog group Public Citizen sent a letter to the chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which regulates prediction markets, outlining a series of "highly suspicious" bets made just before President Donald Trump launched strikes against Iran on February 28. Among the big winners were what the Wall Street Journal described as "six suspected insiders,” whose immaculately timed wagers netted them a $1.2 million profit.
In January, another trader made more than $436,000 after betting that Veneuzelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from power just hours before Trump launched an operation to remove him.
In the face of state regulations, the Trump administration has sought to ease restrictions on betting apps. The Trump family's media company offers access to prediction markets on its Truth Social platform via Crypto.com. Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. is an adviser to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
US Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has emerged as a leading critic of prediction markets, described Fabian's account as a "bone-chilling story."
The senator said: "We need to end prediction markets for government action. NOW."
