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cost of living
The UK Left Sent Labour a Message on Austerity and Palestine
If the party wants to secure another victory at the next election, it must think very carefully about its stance on issues like Gaza, the NHS, and the cost of living crisis.
Jul 06, 2024
Incoming U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s election victory has given Labour a firm grip on power—but a closer look at the results shows a party facing stiff opposition from the left. Many candidates standing on anti-austerity and pro-Palestine platforms have achieved impressive results, which could spark a wider political movement.
Across most of Great Britain, support for the Labour Party did not actually increase. It is thanks only to the U.K.’s First Past the Post electoral system that such a big landslide was possible.
With two seats still left to declare, Labour has won 9.6 million votes—around 33.7% of all votes cast. This is far less than the 12.8 million votes (40%) the party secured in 2017, when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.
Many independent candidates succeeded. Their message resonated with the public. So what would have happened if they had worked together on a left-wing platform of fighting injustices, both in the U.K. and further afield?
Since the last election in 2019, Labour has increased its overall share of the vote by less than two points. Polling expert John Curtice says this was “entirely as a result of a 17-point increase in support in Scotland,” following a collapse in SNP support.
Starmer’s victory, Curtis explains, was not so much due to a rise in support for the party, but “largely on the back of a dramatic 20-point decline in Conservative support.”
The Labour leader’s allies will, no doubt, use the result to show that the party can win elections only from the center ground—and will continue to push out any opposition from the left. But yesterday’s vote also represents a major shift in support for left-wing candidates.
At the last election, no independent candidates won a seat. This time around, independents secured an impressive share of the vote and inflicted a series of major blows to Labour, winning in five constituencies in England. Many such candidates had stood on pro-Palestine platforms, highlighting Starmer’s support for Israeli atrocities in Gaza.
Independent Shockat Adam defeated Labour shadow cabinet minister Jon Ashworth in Leicester South, which was meant to be a safe seat; Ashworth had won by more than 22,000 votes in 2019. After the result was announced, Adam said: “This is for the people of Gaza.”
Elsewhere, IT consultant Iqbal Mohamed pulled off a landslide victory against Labour in the constituency of Dewsbury and Batley in West Yorkshire, winning by almost 7,000 votes.
A solicitor called Adnan Hussein, who stood as an independent candidate in Blackburn, secured a narrow win over Labour, in what the BBCdescribed as a “stunning victory.”
And another pro-Palestine independent candidate, Ayoub Khan, beat Labour in the constituency of Birmingham Perry Barr.
Meanwhile, Corbyn—who also stood as an independent after being forced out of the party—won his seat in Islington North by more than 7,200 votes. This was despite Labour pouring significant support into the constituency, including visits from party grandees like Tony Blair’s former chief adviser, Peter Mandelson, and former deputy leader Tom Watson.
Corbyn, of course, benefited from being so well-known and having served the constituency for more than 40 years. But the scale of his victory was certainly not guaranteed. Shortly before the election, the constituency was described in the media as “marginal.”
Other independents came a close second or third. They include 23-year-old Liane Mohamed, who was within touching distance of kicking Labour’s shadow health secretary, Wes Streeting, out of his seat in Ilford North. She lost by just 528 votes.
In Chingford and Woodford Green, the Labour Party scored a spectacular own-goal by ditching its popular local candidate, Faiza Shaheen, in a last-minute deselection that split the left-wing vote and allowed former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith to retain the seat with 17,000 votes. Shaheen—whom Starmer previously campaigned with and described as “a fantastic candidate”—stood as an independent and won almost 12,500 votes—only 79 less than Labour.
Even in Starmer’s ultra-safe central London seat of Holborn and St Pancras, an independent candidate emerged out of nowhere to land a considerable blow. The Labour leader lost nearly 18,000 votes (more than 17%) from the last election, falling from 36,641 to 18,884. His rival, the anti-apartheid campaigner Andrew Feinstein, came second with 7,312.
All of these wins should worry Labour. Although its victory is clear, the party faces a significant electoral and political threat from left-wing and pro-Palestine opponents. If it wants to secure another victory at the next election, it must think very carefully about its stance on issues like Gaza, the NHS, and the cost of living crisis.
There are reasons independent candidates often struggle to win seats at a general election. They receive little airtime from the media and lack the big financial donations that larger parties rely on.
The First Past the Post system also greatly benefited Labour in this election, when compared to the Green Party and others. This will reignite calls for proportional representation.
But despite these systemic obstacles, this time around, many independent candidates succeeded. Their message resonated with the public. So what would have happened if they had worked together on a left-wing platform of fighting injustices, both in the U.K. and further afield? The results today could well be very different in many areas.
If there was ever a good time for them to consider a new party, it’s now. Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. has shown that a new party can burst onto the stage and win seats in Parliament. Given the success of many left-wing independent candidates, and the purge of left-wingers from the Labour Party, could the left learn something from this in time for the next election?
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Biden Should Be Clear: Corporations Are to Blame for High Prices
Biden has not condemned specific corporations publicly, or threatened them with specific actions unless they lower their prices.
Jun 15, 2024
I’ve analyzed every poll and survey over the last two months, and they all tell the same basic story:
Voters’ top issue is high prices and the cost of living—not jobs, not abortion, not immigration, not U.S. President Joe Biden’s or former President Donald Trump’s age, not even the survival of democracy.
Voters still don’t believe Biden will get prices down, but they believe Trump will. A significant number appear willing to vote for Trump and risk the future of democracy because they believe he will do better job lowering prices.
Consumers are getting shafted, as corporations tell Wall Street they expect to be able to keep their prices and profits in the stratosphere.
Which is why Biden’s approval rating on the economy is deeply underwater while perceptions of Trump’s handling of the economy when he was president (marked by low inflation but huge job losses from Covid-19) are positive.
What should Biden do?
Put blame for high prices squarely where it belongs: on big corporations with monopoly power to keep prices high.
And take those corporations on: Condemn them for price gouging. Threaten them with antitrust lawsuits, price-gouging lawsuits, even price controls. Criticize them for making huge profits and giving their top executives record pay while shafting consumers.
And name names: PepsiCo, Tyson's, Kroger and Albertsons, Exxon-Mobil, and others.
To be sure, the Biden administration has brought down the prices of prescription drugs like insulin and inhalers, reduced bank overdraft and credit card fees, and cracked down on “junk fees” levied by airlines, concert promoters, and more.
Its Department of Justice has launched a lawsuit to combat price-fixing in the meat industry. And the FTC is suing to block the Kroger/Albertsons grocery mega-merger that would send grocery bills even higher.
“We’re taking on corporate greed to bring down the price of gas, food, and rent, eliminating junk fees,” Biden told a crowd of 1,000 supporters in Philadelphia recently.
But Biden has not berated hugely profitable corporations for keeping their prices and profit margins sky high—unlike Sens. Bob Casey (D-Penn.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), who have made corporate price hikes central to their campaigns and are outrunning Biden in polls. Biden has not condemned specific corporations publicly, or threatened them with specific actions unless they lower their prices.
Brown, who represents a state that Trump won handily in 2020, has cut several web ads proclaiming he is “cracking down on the companies that rip off Ohio.”
Casey released a campaign ad showing corporate executives in suits sneaking into a grocery store under cover of night and switching out cereal boxes for smaller replacements. He has introduced a bill that would crack down on “shrinkflation”—a term for companies’ reducing the size of their goods but not cutting prices (Biden praised that legislation during his State of the Union address).
Senate Democrats in tight races, like Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jacky Rosen of Nevada, are making similar pitches.
Why isn’t Biden?
Partly, I think, because he’s uncomfortable attacking corporations directly.
It’s also because some economists close to his White House (such as Larry Summers) disagree that a major driver of inflation is corporations’ raising prices to juice profits. (Three years ago, Larry and I publicly debated a wealth tax on hugely profitable corporations. I was in favor; he against.)
But the fact is, corporate profits have surged to record levels. Shares are trading at record levels. Corporations are buying back their stock at record levels. CEO pay is at record levels. Corporate concentration—monopoly power—is higher than ever.
Concentration has increased in over 75% of U.S. industries since the late 1990s.
Consumers are getting shafted, as corporations tell Wall Street they expect to be able to keep their prices and profits in the stratosphere.
Is It Inflation? Or Is It Greedflation? | Robert Reichwww.youtube.com
Most voters agree that big corporations are largely responsible for inflation. Nearly 6 in 10 say corporations’ being “greedy” is a major cause of inflation, including a majority of independent voters, according to a poll by Navigator Research.
The Biden campaign’s internal polling has found similar results.
With less than five months to go—and the cost of living being the No. 1 issue on voters’ minds—Biden should let ‘er rip.
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13% of 2020 Swing State Biden Voters Won't Be in 2024 Because of Gaza: Polls
The figure comes as part of a new set of polls that show former President Donald Trump narrowly leading Biden in 5 out of 6 crucial battleground states.
May 13, 2024
Approximately 13% of poll respondents in six swing states who voted for U.S. President Joe Biden in 2020 but would not vote for him again said that his foreign policy or Israel's war on Gaza were the most important issues determining their vote.
The figure comes as part of a new set of polls released Monday from The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer that show former President Donald Trump narrowly leading Biden in 5 out of 6 crucial battleground states.
"We have warned that this would happen for months, and the Democratic Party didn't give a damn," author and organizer Daniel Denvir wrote on social media in response to the news.
The polls showed Trump leading Biden with registered voters by three percentage points in Pennsylvania, seven in Arizona and Michigan, 10 in Georgia, and a full 12 in Nevada. Only in Wisconsin did Biden edge ahead by two points. Biden won all of these states in 2020, but he could still win in 2024 if he secures Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and does not lose any other states he previously won. The results were slightly different for likely voters, with Trump narrowly leading in every state except for Michigan.
One voter the pollsters spoke to was 30-year-old Gerard Willingham, a Georgia web administrator who voted for Biden in 2020 but said he would vote for a third party candidate in 2024 because of Biden's response to Israel's war on Gaza.
"I think it's made quite a bit of difference in that it made me more heavily than in the past push toward voting for a third party, even if I feel that the candidates almost 100% won't win," Willingham said. "It's starting to reach into my moral conscience, I guess."
"Biden seems to get the blame for the war in Gaza. For the high cost of living, too."
The polling comes after Biden has spent the last seven months providing military, financial, and moral support for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as it wages a ground and air assault on Gaza that the International Court of Justice ruled could plausibly be a genocide. Only last week did Biden threaten to withhold certain weapons from Israel if it launches a full ground assault on Rafah, but several observers pointed out that Israel's incursions into Rafah so far should already qualify. Further, the poll was conducted from April 28 to May 9, so many respondents would have given their answers before Biden's May 8 remarks.
Palestinian rights and progressive activists have spent the primary season trying to persuade Biden to switch course on Gaza, launching "uncommitted" campaigns that won two delegates to the Democratic National Convention in the key swing state of Michigan. The poll provides further evidence that Biden's support for Israel's war is a real electoral liability.
"There is a cottage industry of political columnists who have said for months that these voters don't exist, only live in Brooklyn and Berkeley and on Twitter, TikTok, etc.," said Hamid Bendaas, communications director of the Institute for Middle East Understanding Policy Project. "To the extent that Biden and his advisers are buying into it, they are costing him the election."
Gaza isn't the only—or even the primary—issue threatening Biden's reflection bid. A quarter of voters consider the economy and cost of living as their most important issues, and more than half of all voters rated the economy as "poor." Further, Biden actually lost more support overall from conservative and moderate Democrats.
Responding to the poll results, journalist Frank Bruni said that Biden needed to "wake up."
While Democratic Party insiders seem to believe that there is no way voters could ultimately prefer Trump's anti-abortion stance and authoritarian leanings, Bruni warned against "complacency."
He pointed out that Democratic senators in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nevada did continue to poll ahead of their Republican opponents, suggesting that the problem is less with the Democratic Party overall than with Biden himself.
"Biden seems to get the blame for the war in Gaza. For the high cost of living, too," Bruni wrote.
"Regarding the economy, he has a story to tell—infrastructure investment, the CHIPS Act, low unemployment—and must tell it better, with an eye not on his liberal base, but on the minorities and young people who are drifting away from him," he advised. "That's the moral of the latest numbers: Take no voter for granted. And there's not a second to waste."
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