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"The biggest thing for me, the significance of the dam removal project, is just hope—understanding that change can be made," a Yoruk activist said as the largest dam removal project in U.S. history neared completion.
Crews breached the final of four dams on a key stretch of the Klamath River on Wednesday, letting salmon run freely there for the first time in over a century and garnering tears from Indigenous activists who had campaigned for the dam removals for decades.
Together the four demolitions mark the largest dam removal project in U.S. history.
The Klamath, which runs from south-central Oregon into northwestern California, has long been bordered by Native American tribes—"Salmon People," as they call themselves—that once relied on the protein-rich fish for about half of their caloric intake but were impoverished by the institution of the dams, among other white settler colonialist initiatives.
"Another wall fell today," Frankie Myers, vice chairman of the Yurok Tribe, said in a statement. "The dams that have divided the basin are now gone and the river is free. Our sacred duty to our children, our ancestors, and for ourselves, is to take care of the river, and today's events represent a fulfillment of that obligation."
The world's largest dam removal to date is restoring and reconnecting hundreds of miles of the Klamath River allowing salmon to go to their spawning grounds for the first time in 100 years.https://t.co/hts6nH3fbG
— American Rivers (@americanrivers) August 29, 2024
The four dams were built between 1918 and 1962 to generate electricity in the region and have been owned in recent years by PacifiCorp, a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, a conglomerate owned by Warren Buffett.
Beforehand, chinook and coho salmon were plentiful in the river.
"My grandpa said that there were so many salmon when he was younger that you could walk across their backs to the other side," Brook Thompson, a 28-year-old activist who grew up on the Yurok reservation, told The New York Times. "It's just so hard to express to people who are so used to fishing for sport or fun that salmon is really everything for us. The health of the river is literally our health."
The campaign to remove the dams took flight in 2002 following a devastating salmon die-off which Thompson and other Indigenous activists still talk about as a turning point. Campaigners went as far as the United Kingdom—where Scottish Power, which then owned the dams, was headquartered—to demand their removal.
The campaign faced opposition but was pushed through by a coalition that included Democratic Govs. Gavin Newsom of California and Kate Brown of Oregon, who left office in 2023.
"This moment is decades in the making—and reflects California's commitment to righting the wrongs of the past," Newsom said in a statement on Wednesday. "Today, fish are swimming freely in the Klamath for the first time in more than a century, thanks to the incredible work of our tribal, local, and federal partners."
The Klamath decommissioning project is part of a larger movement aimed at restorative justice for Indigenous peoples and ecological renewal. More than 2,000 dams have been removed in the United States, mostly in the last 25 years, according to American Rivers, an advocacy group.
Thompson said the removal of the dams showed that activism can pay off.
"The biggest thing for me, the significance of the dam removal project, is just hope—understanding that change can be made," she recently told the Los Angeles Times.
The Klamath is unusual in that it runs from a desert area into the mountains and then back down to the Pacific Ocean—National Geographic has called it "a river upside down." Two upstream dams on the river have not been removed, but they have swim ladders that allow salmon to get through.
Construction work to remove the last infrastructure on the four dams is expected to last another month, while ecological restoration work will go on for years, led by Indigenous groups and Resource Environmental Solutions, a company contracted to do the work.
Driven by dwindling water resources, the global hydropower crisis has become a flashpoint in the far reaches of Northern Africa, where the creation of a giant dam could very well lead to a regional war and worse.
We live in a world of dangerous, deadly extremes. Record-breaking heat waves, intense drought, stronger hurricanes, unprecedented flash flooding. No corner of the planet will be spared the wrath of human-caused climate change and the earth’s fresh water is already feeling the heat of this new reality. More than half of the world’s lakes and two-thirds of its rivers are drying up, threatening ecosystems, farmland, and drinking water supplies. Such diminishing resources are also likely to lead to conflict and even, potentially, all-out war.
“Competition over limited water resources is one of the main concerns for the coming decades,” warned a study published in Global Environmental Change in 2018. “Although water issues alone have not been the sole trigger for warfare in the past, tensions over freshwater management and use represent one of the main concerns in political relations between… states and may exacerbate existing tensions, increase regional instability and social unrest.”
The situation is beyond dire. In 2023, it was estimated that upwards of three billion people, or more than 37% of humanity, faced real water shortages, a crisis predicted to dramatically worsen in the decades to come. Consider it ironic then that, as water is disappearing, huge dams — more than 3,000 of them — that require significant river flow to operate are now being built at an unprecedented pace globally. Moreover, 500 dams are being constructed in legally protected areas like national parks and wildlife reserves. There was a justification for this, claimed the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) some years ago. Such projects, it believed, would help battle climate change by curbing carbon dioxide emissions while bringing electricity to those in the greatest of need.
“[Hydropower] remains the largest source of renewable energy in the electricity sector,” the IPCC wrote in 2018. “Evidence suggests that relatively high levels of deployment over the next 20 years are feasible, and hydropower should remain an attractive renewable energy source within the context of global [greenhouse gas] mitigation scenarios.”
The IPCC acknowledged that unceasing droughts impact stream flow and that climate change is unpredictably worsening matters. Yet its climate experts still contended that hydropower could be a crucial part of the world’s energy transition, arguing that an electric dam will produce seemingly endless energy. At the same time, other renewable sources like wind and solar power have their weather- and sunlight-bound limitations.
A Crack in the Dam Logic
Well-intentioned as it may have been, it’s now far clearer that there is a crack in the IPCC’s appraisal. For one thing, recent research suggests that hydro-powered dams can create an alarming amount of climate-altering greenhouse gas emissions. Rotting vegetation at the bottom of such reservoirs, especially in warmer climates (as in much of Africa), releases significant amounts of methane, a devastating greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.
“Most of this vegetation would have rotted anyway, of course. But, without reservoirs, the decomposition would occur mostly in the atmosphere or in well-oxygenated rivers or lakes,” explains Fred Pearce in the Independent. “The presence of oxygen would ensure the carbon in the plants formed carbon dioxide. But many reservoirs, particularly in the tropics, contain little oxygen. Under those anaerobic conditions, rotting vegetation generates methane instead.”
While CO2 also seriously harms the climate, methane emissions are far worse in the short term.
“We estimate that dams emit around 25% more methane by unit of surface than previously estimated,” says Bridget Deemer of the School of Environment at Washington State University in Vancouver, lead author of a highly-cited study on greenhouse gas emissions from reservoirs. “Methane stays in the atmosphere for only around a decade, while CO2 stays several centuries, but over the course of 20 years, methane contributes almost three times more to global warming than CO2.”
And that’s hardly the only problem dams face in the twenty-first century. At the moment, Chinese financing is the most significant global driver of new hydropower construction. China has invested in the creation of at least 330 dams in 74 countries. Each project poses its own set of environmental quandaries. But above all, the heating of the planet — last year was the warmest in human history and January 2024 the hottest January on record — is making many of those investments look increasingly dubious. On this ever-hotter globe of ours, for instance, a drought in Ecuador has all too typically impacted the functionality of the Amaluza Dam on the Paute River, which provides 60% of that country’s electricity. Paute was running at 40% capacity recently as its river flow dwindled. Similarly, in southern Africa, water levels at the Kariba Dam’s reservoir, located between Zambia and Zimbabwe, have fluctuated drastically, impairing its ability to produce consistent energy.
“In recent years, drought intensified by climate change has caused reservoirs on all five continents to drop below levels needed to maintain hydroelectric production,” writes Jacques Leslie in Yale E360, “and the problem is bound to worsen as climate change deepens.”
Even in the United States, the viability of hydropower is an increasing concern. The Hoover Dam on the Colorado River, for example, has been impacted by years of drought. Water levels at its reservoir, Lake Mead, continue to plummet, raising fears that its days are numbered. The same is true for the Glen Canyon Dam, which also holds back the Colorado, forming Lake Powell. As the Colorado dries up, Glen Canyon may also lose its ability to produce electricity.
Driven by dwindling water resources, the global hydropower crisis has become a flashpoint in the far reaches of Northern Africa, where the creation of a giant dam could very well lead to a regional war and worse.
A Crisis on the Nile
The lifeblood of northeastern Africa, the Nile River, flows through 11 countries before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea. Measured at 6,650 kilometers, the Nile may be the longest river on Earth. For millennia, its meandering waters, which run through lush jungles and dry deserts, have been irrigating farmlands and providing drinking water for millions of people. Nearly 95% of Egypt’s 109 million people live within a few kilometers of the Nile. Arguably the most important natural resource in Africa, it’s now at the epicenter of a geopolitical dispute between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan that’s brought those countries to the brink of military conflict.
A major dam being built along the Blue Nile, the river’s main tributary, is upending the status quo in the region, where Egypt has long been the preeminent nation. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD for short) is to become one of the largest hydroelectric dams ever constructed, stretching more than 1,700 meters and standing 145 meters tall, a monument many will love and others despise.
There’s no question that Ethiopia needs the electricity GERD will produce. Nearly 45% of all Ethiopians lack regular power and GERD promises to produce upwards of 5.15 gigawatts of electricity. To put that in perspective, a single gigawatt would power 876,000 households annually in the United States. Construction on the dam, which began in 2011, was 90% complete by last August when it began producing power. In total, GERD’s cost is expected to eclipse $5 billion, making it the largest infrastructure project Ethiopia has ever undertaken and the largest dam on the African continent.
It will not only bring reliable power to that country but promises a culture shift welcomed by many. “Mothers who’ve given birth in the dark, girls who fetch wood for fire instead of going to school — we’ve waited so many years for this — centuries,” says Filsan Abdi of the Ethiopian Ministry of Women, Children, and Youth. “When we say that Ethiopia will be a beacon of prosperity, it starts here.”
While most Ethiopians may see the dam in a positive light, the downstream countries of Egypt and Sudan (itself embroiled in a devastating civil war) were never consulted, and their officials are indignant. The massive reservoir behind GERD’s gigantic cement wall will hold back 74 billion cubic meters of water. That means Ethiopia will have remarkable control over the flow of the Nile, giving its leaders power over how much access to water both Egyptians and Sudanese will have. The Blue Nile, after all, provides 59% of Egypt’s freshwater supply.
As it happens, fresh water in Egypt has long been growing scarcer and so the country’s leadership has taken the threat of GERD seriously for years. In 2012, for instance, Wikileaks obtained internal emails from the “global intelligence” firm Stratfor revealing that Egypt and Sudan were even then considering directing the Egyptian Special Forces to destroy the dam, still in the early stages of construction. “[We] are discussing military cooperation with Sudan,” a high-level Egyptian source was quoted as saying. While such a direct attack never transpired, Stratfor claimed that Egypt might once again lend support to “proxy militant groups against Ethiopia” (as it had in the 1970s and 1980s) if diplomacy were to hit a dead end.
Unfortunately, the most recent negotiations to calm the hostility around GERD have gone distinctly awry. Last April, the embittered Egyptians responded to the lack of any significant progress by conducting a three-day military drill with Sudan at a naval base in the Red Sea aimed at frightening Ethiopian officials. “All options are on the table,” warned Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry. “[All] alternatives remain available and Egypt has its capabilities.”
Seemingly unfazed by such military threats, Ethiopia plans to finish building the dam, claiming it will provide much-needed energy to impoverished Ethiopians and limit the country’s overall carbon footprint. “[GERD] represents a sustainable socio-economic project for Ethiopia: replacing fossil fuels and reducing CO2 emissions,” the Ethiopian embassy in Washington has asserted.
GERD, however, falls squarely into the category of being a major problem dam — and not just because it could lead to a bloody war in a region already in horrific turmoil. Once filled, its massive reservoir will cover a staggering 1,874 square kilometers, making it more than three-quarters the size of Utah’s Great Salt Lake (after it started to shrink).
Unfortunately, GERD never underwent a proper environmental impact assessment (EIA) despite being legally required to do so. No EIA was ever carried out because the notoriously corrupt Ethiopian government knew that the results wouldn’t be pleasing and was unwilling to let any roadblocks get in the way of the dam’s construction, something that became more obvious when upwards of 20,000 indigenous Gumuz and Berta natives began to be forced from their homes to make way for the monstrous dam.
Publicly coming out against the dam has proven a risky business. Employees of International Rivers, a nonprofit that advocates for people endangered by dams, have been harassed and received death threats in response to their opposition. Prominent Ethiopian journalist Reeyot Alemu, a critic of the dam and the government’s actions concerning it, was imprisoned for more than four years under draconian anti-terrorism laws.
Electric Water Wars
While GERD has created a dicey conflict, it also has international ramifications. China, which has played such a pivotal role in bankrolling hydropower projects globally in these years, has provided $1.2 billion to help the Ethiopians build transmission lines from the dam to nearby towns. Since it has also heavily invested in Egypt, it’s well-positioned, if any country is, to help navigate the GERD dispute.
Military analysts in the United States argue that China’s involvement with the dam is part of a policy meant to put the U.S. at a distinct disadvantage in the race to exploit Africa’s abundant rare earth minerals from the cobalt caverns of the Congo to the vast lithium deposits in Ethiopia’s hinterlands. China, the world’s “largest debt collector,” has indeed poured money into Africa. As of 2021, it was that continent’s largest creditor, holding 20% of its total debt. The growth of Chinese influence internationally and in Africa — it has large infrastructure projects in 35 African countries — is crucial to understanding the latest version of the globe’s imperial geopolitics.
Most of China’s African ventures are connected to Beijing’s “Belt and Road Initiative,” a program of this century to fund infrastructure deals across Eurasia and Africa. Its economic ties to Africa began, however, with Chinese leader Mao Zedong’s push in the 1950s and 1960s for an “Afro-Asian” alliance that would challenge Western imperialism.
So many decades later, the idea of such an alliance plays second fiddle to China’s global economic desires, which, like so many past imperial projects in Africa, have significant downsides for those on the receiving end. Developing countries desperately need capital, so they’re willing to accept rigid terms and conditions from China, even if they represent the latest version of the century’s old colonialism and neo-colonialism that focused on controlling the continent’s rich resources. This is certainly true in the case of China’s hydropower investments in places like Ghana’s Bui Dam and the Congo River Dam in the Republic of Congo, where multi-billion-dollar loans are backed by Congo’s crude oil and Ghana’s cocoa crops.
In 2020, the U.S. belatedly inserted itself into the GERD feud, threatening to cut $130 million in aid for Ethiopia’s anti-terrorism efforts. The Ethiopians believed it was related to the dam controversy, as they also did when, in June 2023, the Biden administration directed USAID to halt all food assistance to the country (upwards of $2 billion), claiming it wasn’t reaching Ethiopians, only to reverse course months later.
The dispute over Ethiopia’s enormous dam should be a warning of what the future holds on a hotter, drier planet, where the rivers that feed dams like GERD are drying up while the superpowers continue to jockey for position, hoping to control what remains of the world’s resources. Hydropower won’t help solve the climate crisis, but new dam projects may lead to war over one thing key to our survival — access to fresh, clean water.
The climate crisis is melting ice in the Himalayas, threatening to overflow glacial lakes as the Indian government rushes to build new dams.
Authorities raised the death toll to 42 on Friday after a glacial lake overwhelmed a dam in the Indian Himalayas earlier this week, in one of the worst disasters in the area in nearly half a century.
The dam breach on Wednesday, which was caused in part by extreme rainfall, had long been predicted by scientists and environmental advocates due both to the climate crisis and inadequate regulations.
"We knew that this was coming," Gyatso Lepcha, general secretary of local environmental group Affected Citizens of Teesta, said in a statement reported by The Associated Press.
The flooding occurred in India's Sikkim state after South Llonak Lake overflowed and breached the state's largest dam, AP reported further.
"Floodwaters have caused havoc in four districts of the state, sweeping away people, roads, bridges," Indian Army spokesperson Himanshu Tiwari told AFP.
The floodwaters destroyed 15 bridges, according to Reuters, and damaged or flattened more than 270 homes, AP reported.
State official Tseten Bhutia said that around 2,400 people had been rescued and 7,600 were living in emergency settlements, according to Reuters. Overall, the Sikkim government said that the disaster impacted a total of 22,000 people.
"It was already predicted in 2021 that this lake would breach and impact the dam."
"We got calls from people that river levels could rise at 3 am and we ran for our lives," 44-year-old Javed Ahmed Ansari, a Teesta valley river-rafting business owner, told Reuters. "We ran towards the hill in the jungle... We saw houses getting swept away. I can now only see the first floor of our house which is filled with sand, everything is submerged."
Officials said Friday that at least 42 people had died and 142 were still missing. After the flood, satellite photos revealed the lake had diminished by two-thirds, according to reporting by CBS and AFP.
The immediate cause of the flooding may be a combination of both a burst of extreme rainfall and a 6.2 magnitude earthquake in neighboring Nepal on Tuesday, according to AP. However, it is exactly the kind of disaster that scientists have warned about as the climate crisis melts Himalayan glaciers, swelling the waters of glacial lakes. South Llonak Lake had been growing faster than any other lake in Sikkim, scientists warned in a 2021 study.
"It was already predicted in 2021 that this lake would breach and impact the dam," Indian Institute of Technology, Indore, glaciologist Farooq Azam told CBS News. "There has been a substantial increase in the number of glacial lakes as the glaciers are melting due to global warming."
In general, mountain regions are melting twice as fast as the global average due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels. A study published in June found that the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose 80% of their ice by 2100 if countries don't rapidly phase out oil, gas, and coal. In addition to triggering glacial floods, this would threaten the drinking water source relied on by 2 billion people.
This loss is clashing with the Indian government's attempt to transition to renewable energy by increasing hydroelectric power by 50% by the end of the decade, according to AP. To meet this goal, the government has signed off on hundreds of dams in the Himalayas, but a 2016 study warned that more than 20% of 177 dams in five Himalayan nations were at risk from breaches caused by the overflowing of glacial lakes.
That list included the dam that breached Wednesday, the Teesta 3 hydropower project, which began operating in 2017 after nine years of work. Local watchdog groups had also expressed concerns about its lack of safety features.
"Despite being the biggest project in the state, there were no early warning systems installed even though the glacier overflowing was a known risk," Himanshu Thakkar of South Asian Network for Rivers, Dams, and People told AP.
Wednesday's disaster follows another dam breach in 2021 that killed 81 people in Uttarakhand state. India’s National Disaster Management Agency promised Friday to fit most of the country's 56 at-risk glacial lakes with earning warning systems.
Extreme rainfall triggered by the climate crisis is also proving deadly in India and around the world, with more than 100 killed in northern India in July and nearly 50 in Himachal Pradesh in August.
"Intense rain has led to this catastrophic situation in Sikkim where the rain has triggered a glacial lake outburst flood and damaged a dam, and caused loss of life," International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ice researcher Miriam Jackson told reporters. "We observe that such extreme events increase in frequency as the climate continues to warm and takes us into unknown territory."
"The destruction of the dam represents the most serious single blow to the environment during the war," said one advocate.
"Dams must not be used as a weapon of war."
That's one of the key messages shared Tuesday in an open letter condemning "the weaponization of the Kakhovka hydropower dam, whose destruction has precipitated the manmade disaster unfolding in Ukraine, the impacts of which will be experienced by the environment and people for generations to come."
Signed by two dozen advocacy organizations from around the world, the letter recounts how "the destruction of the Kakhovka dam has severely affected the lives of hundreds of thousands of people upstream and downstream, impacted over 40 protected natural areas with dozens of endemic species, exposed or carried to the sea the toxic sediments accumulated in the reservoir over the dam's 70-year history, inundated at least 50 settlements on both banks causing mass displacement, and cut off water up to 500,000 hectares of irrigated fields, among other impacts."
According to the signatories, "Restoring a new liveable environment will take many years if not many decades."
"Restoring a new liveable environment will take many years if not many decades."
Kyiv and Moscow have blamed each other for destroying the dam, which was under Russian control when it collapsed on June 6. Some, including the new letter's signatories, have made the case for attributing the dam's failure to cumulative damage generated since Russia invaded Ukraine last year.
"The bursting of the Kakhovka dam caused by the brutal Russian military invasion in Ukraine has reminded humankind that large dams can often be a weapon of mass destruction," says the letter. "Building dams upstream of populated areas can threaten the lives of thousands—in the case of Kakhovka, 40,000 people live in harm's way, at least 50 of whom have been already confirmed dead and up to a thousand are still missing. The deluge has also taken a heavy toll on natural ecosystems and biodiversity of the unique wetlands and valleys of the Lower Dnieper—one of Europe's largest rivers."
The United Nations on Sunday accused Russia of denying aid workers access to Moscow-controlled areas of southern Ukraine that are home to people suffering the most direct consequences of the dam collapse.
Oleksii Vasyliuk, chair of the Ukraine Nature Conservation Group, which co-organized Tuesday's letter with International Rivers, said in a statement that "this ecological catastrophe and large-scale destruction of nature provoked by the Russian invasion are undermining the future well-being of all of Europe," though its deadly effects could extend beyond the continent's borders.
The dam's disintegration has intensified concerns about the structural integrity of the besieged Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southeastern Ukraine and sparked multiple warnings, including those detailed in the new letter, about long-term harm to the area's drinking water supplies, wastewater infrastructure, and agricultural land. Given the region's role as one of the world's major "breadbaskets," fears are mounting that the global hunger crisis could grow worse as a result.
"The destruction of the dam represents the most serious single blow to the environment during the war," said Vasyliuk. "This is an act of ecocide against the environment and is a crime against humanity."
"Unsafe in times of peace, dams constitute a mortal danger in cases of war, violent conflicts, and terrorist insurgence," said International Rivers co-director Josh Klemm. "The weaponization of dams during wartime represents a real and growing threat."
In 2017, for instance, the U.S. bombed Syria's largest dam during its war against the Islamic State, endangering tens of thousands of civilians in the process.
"The weaponization of dams during wartime represents a real and growing threat."
The letter describes the destruction of the Kakhovka dam as a war crime and calls on the International Criminal Court to investigate it as such.
Even in the absence of war or sabotage, "dams are increasingly at risk of failure as decades-old dams reach the end of their lifespans, and climate change-induced floods threaten dams and communities located downstream," says the letter. "By 2050, most people will live downstream of a large, aging dam."
Pointing to the Ukraine Recovery Conference scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday in London, the signatories implored participating officials "to urgently rebuild more sustainably and avoid the inherent dangers and problems of rebuilding the 70-year-old dam and rehabilitating the obsolete plant."
"More than ever Ukraine needs support for its speedy and sustainable recovery," states the letter. "However, the destruction of obsolete Soviet infrastructure also brings an opportunity for economic, social, and environmental improvements by using new efficient and nature-friendly approaches and technologies while avoiding mistakes of the past."
According to the letter:
The restoration of the 350 MW Kakhovka hydropower plant has been estimated to cost over €1 billion, though the full cost is likely to be much greater when factoring in the restoration of the vast reservoir. It would also take years to complete, and restoring water supply from the reservoir to Crimea may take over a decade. Rebuilding the dam and its 2000 km2 reservoir would not represent the best path forward given its extraordinary expense, high environmental impacts, climate vulnerability, remaining threat of destruction, and availability of more sustainable solutions.
A comparable solar power plant, for example, would occupy less than 1% of the former reservoir area, cost a fraction of restoring the hydropower facility, and could be completed in less than two years.
Dedicated water supply systems and more water-efficient irrigation schemes that do not require restoring the dam can and must be undertaken immediately, rather than choosing an option that would take many years to complete. These efforts are already underway.
Developing solar energy in the former reservoir could serve to power pumps for new water systems while protecting native vegetation from drought. This could be complemented by wind farms to harness naturally strong winds in the valley. The emergence of over 1000 km2 of vacant land is a real opportunity to develop renewable energy and other nature-friendly economic activities.
"We are confident that under conditions of climate change, it will be optimal to restore natural ecosystems on the site of the already emptied water reservoir, which in the past has submerged the largest natural forest in the steppe zone of Ukraine," said Vasyliuk. "Restoration of the river flow will not only bring back the stability of natural ecosystems and restore biodiversity lost in the past, but also increase the quality of water used by people, thereby improving the quality of life."
Dam builders like to claim that hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable electricity. After a century-long head start over wind and solar power, large hydropower indeed accounted for 52% of the world's renewable energy capacity in 2014. But new figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that the picture is quickly changing.
Dam builders like to claim that hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable electricity. After a century-long head start over wind and solar power, large hydropower indeed accounted for 52% of the world's renewable energy capacity in 2014. But new figures from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that the picture is quickly changing.
The world added 132,000 megawatt of renewable energy capacity in 2014. This is roughly equal to the full power sector capacity of Canada or France. New wind power with 51,000 megawatt and new solar power with 40,000 megawatt were the biggest factors behind this spectacular growth. New large hydropower projects contributed 31,000 megawatt. These figures confirm a long-term trend: Since 2010, wind and solar power capacity has grown by a total of 313,000 megawatt - almost four times faster than large hydropower plants.
Not all wind and solar projects are socially and environmentally benign, and not all hydropower projects of 10 megawatt and more destroy ecosystems. But overall, wind and solar projects have a smaller environmental footprint than hydropower dams, can be built closer to where people need them (including far away from the electric grid), and are more resilient to climate change. Unlike hydropower dams that can irreversibly destroy ecosystems and wipe out species, they are truly renewable sources of electricity.
Dam builders argue that wind and solar power are so intermittent that they need to be backed up by hydropower reservoirs for a reliable supply of electricity. The upsurge of wind and solar power has indeed given dam builders their own second wind. Yet the price of environmentally friendly battery power is dropping fast, and smarter grids can balance more intermittent power sources. We will not need to build more destructive dams to balance a growing share of wind and solar energy. If the current trend continues, solar power can blow dam buildings out of the water.

Based on data from 77 countries, IRENA also reports that the performance of hydropower projects is deteriorating. In 2000, hydropower plants on average generated at 44% of their capacity. By 2014, their average performance had fallen to 40%. IRENA does not offer an explanation for this trend, but whatever the reasons are, it does not bode well: Is hydropower generation dwindling under the impact of ever more serious droughts? Are farmers and industrial users withdrawing more water from rivers? Or are dam builders running out of good sites for their new projects?
While governments and private investors favor wind and solar power over hydropower, the World Bank and other international financial institutions continue to prioritize large dams. In 2014, the World Bank devoted no less than 56% of its power sector lending to large hydropower projects. (It lent 30% of its power sector funds for wind, solar and geothermal projects, and 14% for oil and gas.) The Bank is currently funding 68 large hydropower projects, and has another six in its pipeline.
Like the dam building industry, the World Bank explains that "hydropower is the world's largest source of renewable energy". This is a backward-looking argument. With the same justification, financiers could have argued for a continued focus on landline connections rather than mobile phones fifteen years ago. The future belongs to wind and solar power.