After Biden gave his energetic State of the Union address, the finger wagging accelerated: “See, Biden clearly has the wherewithal to crush Trump,” friends said. I was not convinced. But, after Biden’s Thursday night debate performance, a lot more people became unconvinced. He looked old and spoke even older, that was undeniable.
It’s now up to Biden and the leaders of the Democratic Party. Do they have the guts to tell Biden not to run? Do any of the younger presidential hopefuls have the nerve to speak out? Does Biden have the guts to withdraw?
It is past time to listen to what the Democratic rank and file have been saying all along. They want someone younger to do combat with Trump. While I’m usually a poll skeptic, Biden’s approval numbers are pathetic. The president stood at just 37 percent as of June 24, and that number hardly budged even after the surprisingly strong SOTU address. That polling weakness, I believe, reflects less on the president’s job performance than on how he looks and acts on the job.
Unfortunately, the primaries have been completed and no significant Democrat has showed the nerve to oppose him. That leaves it up to Biden to decide, and in the aftermath of the debate debacle, he and his team say they’re running harder than ever... right over the cliff!
But that could change if his poll numbers further deteriorate and if enough Democratic leaders feel they might lose as well in the fall if Biden heads the ticket.
Misreading History
Pundits have encouraged the Democrat’s cowardice by claiming that defeat always follows when a sitting president is challenged by one of his own party. The poster child for this story is 1968, when Democratic Senator Eugene McCarthy of Minnesota took on President Lyndon Johnson in the primaries. McCarthy’s strength led Johnson to withdraw, and for party regulars to engineer the nomination of Vice President Hubert Humphrey. This ended with the victory of Richard Nixon in the general election.
That’s not the way I see it. I challenge all comers to a historical duel about 1968 politics. I think that election was entirely winnable by Humphrey had he taken a mild anti-Vietnam War position a bit sooner during his fall campaign.
That pivotal year is worth reviewing. In 1968, there were 536,000 U.S. troops in Vietnam killing and being killed in large numbers. The Tet Offensive showed the American public that the Johnson administration had been lying when describing our success conducting the war. It was clear that America was not winning. McCarthy challenged the sitting president with a strong anti-war message, appealing to the support of young people in the growing anti-war movement. (About one million men were drafted into the armed forces from 1965 to 1968.) Thousands flocked to his campaign, going door-to-door in New Hampshire where McCarthy gained 42 percent of the Democratic primary vote. The next primary was to take place in Wisconsin and following his New Hampshire scare Johnson knew he was sure to lose. On March 30, LBJ dropped out of the race, and on April 2 McCarthy won Wisconsin by 57 to 35 percent.
With Johnson out, Humphrey became the Democratic Party establishment candidate, but then Robert Kennedy jumped in, making it a three-man race. On April 4, Dr. Martin King Jr. was assassinated in Memphis and riots broke out in 100 cities across the country, leading to 43 deaths and the mobilization of National Guard units and the military occupation of several U.S. cities. Disruption and chaos had the upper hand, and by the time of the California primary, on June 4, it was clear that Kennedy, would defeat McCarthy and become the leader of the anti-war Democrats. Sadly, he was assassinated that night in Los Angeles, greatly weakening the anti-war electoral efforts.
The August 26-29 Democratic convention, held in Chicago, turned into a riot, a police riot, as the Chicago police—under the control of Mayor Richard Daley—viciously attacked the generally peaceful anti-war demonstrators. Anti-war convention delegates, and even CBS’s Dan Rather, were beaten as Daley turned his political machine into a ramrod for the Humphrey campaign. The carnage was broadcast live on TV.
After Kennedy’s murder it was a forgone conclusion that Humphrey would become the Democratic nominee. But the key political event at the tumultuous convention turned out to be the vote on a rather mild peace plank for the Democratic Party platform, something that the Kennedy and McCarthy delegates hoped to salvage for their efforts. But LBJ, pulling the strings, refused to compromise and the plank was narrowly defeated.
I try to avoid the prediction game, but I am willing to go out on a limb on this one: If Biden stays in, we get Trump. If a younger Democrat becomes the nominee, Trump will get crushed.
That fall, Vice President Humphrey ran against the former Vice President Nixon, who based his campaign on law and order, scaring the newly concocted “Silent Majority,” and criticizing the riots and anti-war demonstrations that were ripping through the country. Nixon also claimed to have a plan to end the war in Vietnam that he would reveal at his inauguration, which turned out to be an appealing lie. Humphrey, an organization man nearly to the end, stayed loyal to the unpopular LBJ positions and fell behind by 44 to 27 percent in a September 27 Gallop poll.
On September 30, 1968, Humphrey finally broke ranks with LBJ in a nationwide speech. He announced that he would put an end to the bombing in Vietnam and would call for a ceasefire. This brought McCarthy and many of his supporters, as well as Kennedy supporters, into the Humphrey campaign, quickly narrowing the gap. But with only a month to go Humphrey didn’t quite get there: Nixon won 43.4 percent to Humphrey’s 42.7 percent, with segregationist George Wallace netting 15.5 percent.
I believe any objective analyst would conclude that had Democrats supported the peace plank at the convention or had Humphrey offered his peace plan sooner, he would have won. So please don’t use 1968 to tell us that if Biden withdraws, the Democrats are sure to lose, (which is what Kaitlin Collins said on CNN the night after the debate.)
I try to avoid the prediction game, but I am willing to go out on a limb on this one: If Biden stays in, we get Trump. If a younger Democrat becomes the nominee, Trump will get crushed.
It’s now up to Biden and the leaders of the Democratic Party. Do they have the guts to tell Biden not to run? Do any of the younger presidential hopefuls have the nerve to speak out? Does Biden have the guts to withdraw?
President Biden, we thank you for your service. Now give us the chance to thank you again for protecting democracy by stepping aside.
