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For Immediate Release
November, 25 2013, 12:02pm EDT
Contact:
Lynsy Smithson-Stanley
646-559-8284
lsmithsonstanley@climatenexus.org
Survey of Experts Suggests 1 Meter Sea Level Rise By 2100
The largest survey ever of the world's foremost sea-level rise experts shows that a meter of warming is possible by 2100 with unchecked emissions. Quaternary Science Reviews published the study over the weekend.
NEW YORK
The largest survey ever of the world's foremost sea-level rise experts shows that a meter of warming is possible by 2100 with unchecked emissions. Quaternary Science Reviews published the study over the weekend.
Because projecting sea-level rise comes with many uncertainties (glacier and ice cap melting, use of water for irrigation and more), different modeling approaches yield significantly different answers. By surveying leaders in the field, study authors offered more assurance on the ranges of future sea-level rise.
In a best-case scenario where warming is limited to 2oC beyond pre-industrial levels, experts predicted about half a meter of rise by 2100 and between 0.6 and 1m by 2300. In a high-emissions scenario with 4.5oC of warming, expert predictions were even more dire: 0.7 to 1.2m by 2100 and 2 to 3m by 2300.
The potential damage from sea level rise is significant. An additional meter of rise poses significant risks to U.S. coastal regions, which are inhabited by 29% of the national population, including five of the ten largest cities and generate 45% of the nation's Gross Domestic Product.
In each scenario, the experts surveyed predicted more sea level rise than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Working Group I report, which was released in September. This finding is in line with the IPCC's reputation as being conservative in its estimates.
The survey also asked for a "high-end" estimate below which respondents expect sea level to stay with 95 percent certainty until the year 2100 (the IPCC does not include this data point, although the high-end value is relevant for coastal planning). For unmitigated emissions, half of the experts (51%) gave at least 1.5m, and a quarter (27%) reported 2 or more meters. A majority of experts (58%) reported the high-end value for 2300 as 4m or higher.
"The results show that unmitigated emissions could have catastrophic impact on many coastal cities and low-lying areas," said lead author Dr. Benjamin Horton, professor at the Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University. "But they also illustrate the potential for allaying such large sea-level rise through successful reduction of emissions."
To ensure unbiased selection of experts, study authors identified the authors most active in the peer-reviewed sea-level rise literature. Of this pool, 90 experts (representing 18 countries) provided full responses. Their responses reveal uncertainty and variation, but point to general agreement that mirrors the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) sea level rise estimates.
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"We got people that work and repair the water mains and can't afford their water bill," said union leader Greg Boulware last week. "I don't want to be rich. We just want comfort inside the city that we serve daily."
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Philadelphia's largest municipal workers' strike in over 40 years is entering its second week after negotiations with the city broke down this weekend.
Over 9,000 sanitation workers, 911 dispatchers, water services workers, crossing guards, and other city employees walked off the job last week, demanding that the city increase their salary enough to meet the rising cost of living.
But even with trash piling up on the streets and other city services understaffed, Mayor Cherelle Parker (D) would not agree to the demands made by AFSCME District Council 33, Philadelphia's largest blue-collar union.
Parker has offered a pay increase of 8.75% over the next three years, which she described as historic.
But DC 33 president Greg Boulware said that's far too little for municipal workers, many of whom are among the city's "working poor," to survive.
"It's not like as if our members are making $80,000, $90,000 a year," Boulware said. "A 2% increase on those would be significantly higher than it would be on somebody making $40,000-$45,000 a year. So, her math truly is not mathing, and you're clearly not paying attention to the working people that are going on in this city."
The average municipal worker in Philadelphia makes around $46,000, which is $15,000 less than the median income in the city and less than half of what a single adult needs to live comfortably, according to a study by SmartAsset.
"We got people that work and repair the water mains and can't afford their water bill," Boulware said at a rally last week. "We got people that repair the runways at the airport and can't afford a plane ticket. I don't want to be rich. We just want a comfort inside the city that we serve daily."
The union initially asked for an 8% raise for the next four years, which the city dismissed. This weekend, they pared their proposal down to 5%, but the city still did not budge.
Parker has insisted that her smaller proposed increases are merely what is "fiscally responsible," and that the city cannot afford to offer more.
The union has disputed this, pointing out that Parker herself is budgeted to receive a 9% increase to her salary of more than $240,000. That increase alone is nearly half the current salary that the average DC 33 member makes in a year.
As of Monday, negotiations have stalled, with no clear end in sight. With a throng of picketers behind him, Boulware told NBC 10, a local affiliate, that the union was working on a third proposal, and that negotiations may resume Tuesday. But he seemed to expect more obstinacy from the city.
"We've been there to be able to sit and meet and negotiate," he said. "It doesn't seem like the city quite honestly wants to entertain any of the questions that we have about things and actually have a true dialogue... That's how you negotiate and that's not truly what's been going on."
Despite the city's refusal to budge, momentum around the strike has continued to grow. On Friday, rapper LL Cool J dropped out of a 4th of July festival in the city, saying, "There is absolutely no way I can perform across a picket line."
Other AFSCME councils around Pennsylvania have joined pickets in solidarity. This includes Philadelphia's Council 47, which represents thousands of "white collar" city workers.
With mounds of trash accumulating on streets, sometimes becoming as "tall as people," the environmental activists with the Sunrise Movement have also joined in the effort to pressure the city. On Monday, activists hauled bags of trash into the lobby of City Hall, labeled with the words "Meet DC 33 Demands" written in yellow tape.
AFSCME, meanwhile, has stated its resolve to fight on as the strike has gained national attention.
"City workers are holding the line until they get a FAIR contract with the wages and benefits they deserve," the national union's account wrote on X Monday. "One day longer, one day stronger, no matter what it takes."
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Border patrol walking McArthur park here in LA
[image or embed]
— Mel Buer (@melbuer.bsky.social) July 7, 2025 at 1:49 PM
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (D) reacted angrily after seeing reports of the agents—some of whom had visible Border Protection patches—in the park and she went to the area to tell them to cease their operations.
"Minutes before, there were more than 20 kids playing—then, the MILITARY comes through," Bass wrote in a post on the social media website X. "The SECOND I heard about this, I went to the park to speak to the person in charge to tell them it needed to end NOW. Absolutely outrageous."
Additional videos posted on Bluesky by Buer showed angry Los Angeles residents following the agents as they drove slowly down the street away from the park while pelting them with verbal abuse.
"Get the fuck out of here!" one male resident can be heard shouting at the agents.
"You guys are a bunch of pussies!" yelled another.
Shortly after this, a woman can be heard scolding the agents: "You are not helping by snatching people!"
After Bass spoke with what I assume is a DHS rep, they packed shit up and headed out. The whole neighborhood turned out to chase them out of the park. Some fruit was thrown, alot of yelling
[image or embed]
— Mel Buer (@melbuer.bsky.social) July 7, 2025 at 2:29 PM
California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, condemned the federal operations in Los Angeles shortly after they occurred.
"The actions of [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] and CBP during the raids in Los Angeles are not about safety or justice—they're about meeting enforcement quotas and striking fear in communities," he wrote on Bluesky. "We've filed a brief supporting a challenge to ICE and CBP's unlawful practices. We won't back down and we won't be silent."
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Six major medical organizations on Monday filed a lawsuit against Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. alleging he is putting American children at "grave and immediate risk" because of his policy on vaccines.
The plaintiffs in the lawsuit—including the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American College of Physicians, the American Public Health Association, the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Massachusetts Public Health Association, and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine—charged that Kennedy earlier this year made a "baseless and uninformed policy decision" when he removed vaccinations against Covid-19 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) official immunization schedule for "healthy" children and pregnant women.
The organizations emphasized that unless Kennedy's decision is reversed, "all children remain at grave and immediate risk of contracting a preventable disease" and further warned that it "exposes... vulnerable populations to a serious disease with potentially irreversible long-term effects and, in some cases, death."
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The complaint then documented Kennedy's long history of statements and articles that have peddled false claims about the safety of vaccinations and pointed to his mass dismissals of staff at HHS and his appointment of likeminded vaccine critics to argue that "it has become clear that truth and transparency are not desired by the secretary, but rather he wishes subservient confirmation of his misinformation and lies."
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