Progressives Aim to Defeat AIPAC Cash, Dem Establishment in Michigan and Missouri Primaries

Voters in five states are going to the polls Tuesday to cast ballots for US House and Senate candidates, including several who aim to continue a recent streak of progressive victories that—as Colorado democratic socialist Melat Kiros said after she won her own primary race last month—will send a message to "both parties, to Donald Trump, and to the entire country.”

Major races in which progressives are hoping to beat corporate-backed, centrist Democrats are set to be decided in Missouri and Michigan, and observers have pointed to unprecedented outside spending on the primaries—including more than $100 million that's been poured into races by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) as public support for Israel plummets—as clear evidence that the political establishment views left-wing challengers as formidable opponents.

With AIPAC taking an outsized role in funding a number of centrist primary campaigns this election cycle, the results Tuesday night are expected to reveal whether the lobby group can continue to influence elections and US policy regarding Israel, while a growing number of Americans view Israel negatively following nearly three years of its US-backed assault on Gaza.

Dan Pfeiffer, a former Obama administration staffer who co-hosts the podcast "Pod Save America," said that with the Democratic establishment particularly throwing its weight behind pro-Israel US Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) in the race between her and progressive former public health official Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan's US Senate race, Tuesday will be "the culmination of one of the most heated and expensive Democratic Senate primaries in history."

"The Democratic establishment threw everything it had at Abdul El-Sayed," said Pfeiffer. "If he wins, the reverberations will be felt far outside of Michigan."

The Michigan Senate race is arguably the most high-profile race taking place Tuesday, but in a number of House districts in the state and elsewhere, progressives are vying for seats in Congress in hopes of increasing the number of Democrats who would use their power to advocate for programs like Medicare for All and universal childcare and against massive Pentagon budgets and US aid to Israel.

Key races include:

State Rep. Donavan McKinney (D-11) vs. US Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.)

McKinney, a former labor organizer, is running to unseat Thanedar in the state's 13th District, and recently notched endorsements from the Democratic Socialists of America and Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.). Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) have also thrown their support behind McKinney.

The state lawmaker's website states that he is running "because I’ve lived through the same bull**** as you my whole life, right here at home in Detroit." He calls his city "the poster child for communities in need of the Green New Deal," pointing to lead-polluted water and "some of the most polluted air in the country."

He has also pushed to ban utility monopolies and government contractors, calling Thanedar "our multimillionaire congressman who bought this seat with his own money," and had pledged to defeat "the corporate and right-wing super PACs that will spend millions to support" Thanedar.

According to Punchbowl News, Thanedar is "heavily self-funding" his campaign and, along with the pro-cryptocurrency group Protect Progress, has spent $4.6 million on TV ads.

McKinney has also pointed to Thanedar's campaign funding from Detroit's unpopular energy utility company, DTE, and from AIPAC. According to The Intercept, "two-thirds of the money Thanedar raised in the last quarter came from AIPAC, which collects money from multiple donors and funnels it to the pro-Israel group’s preferred candidates... Less than a quarter of those donors listed Michigan as their state of residence."

Thanedar "was in the minority of House Democrats who voted against cutting $3.3 billion in military aid to Israel from a State Department spending bill" last month, The Intercept added.

In his "closing message" on Tuesday, McKinney told radio show host Dean Obeidallah that he doesn't "have any special interests pulling the strings."

"My special interest is the people of the mighty 13th District, and instead of continuing to send our taxpayer money to fund genocide and send it for bombs and weapons to kill families and children, or to start wars in Iran and spend over $1 billion a day on average, my focus is going to be taking those resources, our taxpayer money, and bringing it back home for people who need it the most," said McKinney.

Organizer William Lawrence vs. Retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam vs. Former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink

Lawrence has also been endorsed by Sanders, Tlaib, and a number of progressive groups in his race in the state's 7th District, where he and the two moderate candidates seek to oust US Rep. Tom Barrett.

Some polls have shown the progressive co-founder of Sunrise Movement in the lead by as many as six percentage points, but other recent surveys have shown Brink in the lead.

Lawrence has touted his energetic grassroots campaign, announcing on Monday that 864 volunteers had knocked on 100,000 doors in the district, which includes Lansing and the surrounding area.

Lawrence has focused heavily on the push to build nearly 80 artificial intelligence data centers in communities in Michigan. President Donald Trump has demanded a deregulated approach, and people in towns and cities across the country have rallied against the facilities, arguing the massive water and energy consumption of data centers makes them undesirable additions to their communities.

Lawrence has joined Sanders and US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) in calling for a nationwide moratorium on the construction of new data centers. In one campaign ad he was seen at a farm, saying, “Tech billionaires want to turn this field into a massive data center that’ll jack up our energy bills and ruin our home values... I’m running for U.S. Congress because I’ve never been afraid to stand up to corporate power."

Some in the Democratic establishment attacked Lawrence recently over comments he made in 2024 in which he said older Black leaders in the party have worked to defang "the white left." He apologized for the remark.

At a rally ahead of the primary, Lawrence told supporters that the campaign has "continued climbing" despite the attacks.

"And that's because there are real human beings in this campaign who are having real conversations, and that is cutting through the lies and the bullshit," he said.

El-Sayed vs. Stevens

In the state's most closely-watched race, El-Sayed has taken direct aim at Stevens for benefiting from tens of millions of dollars in AIPAC money as he has run on the slogan, "Money out of politics, money in your pocket, and Medicare for all."

Stevens has been endorsed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who has come under fire this election cycle for other endorsements including that of Maine Gov. Janet Mills in the New England state's Senate race, with progressives arguing Schumer has backed establishment candidates and ignored the energy around Medicare for All, taxing billionaires, and ending aid for Israel among the party's base.

Ben Rhodes, another former Obama staffer, said Monday that the party leadership "decided to back Haley Stevens in part out of fear of Abdul and the future he represents."

El-Sayed is an outspoken advocate for Medicare for All, but Stevens has appeared eager to center his identity as a Muslim American in the race, joining the centrist think tank Third Way in attacking him for campaigning with commentator Hasan Piker, an outspoken critic of Israel, and claiming last week that El-Sayed wants "to blame all of [his] problems on Jewish Americans."

The latter comment was widely condemned as "race-baiting."

El-Sayed closed his primary campaign out Tuesday with an ad featuring several of his high-profile endorsers as well as grassroots supporters.

"We need to talk about who we are and affirm what we're willing to fight for, and that's exactly why this movement is resonating with so many," said Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.).

Numerous polls in recent weeks have shown El-Sayed far ahead of Stevens, particularly among younger voters.

Drop Site News highlighted a number of other Michigan races in which progressives are running, including organizer Abbas Alawieh in the 2nd state Senate district and Sanders-endorsed Eboni Taylor in the 3rd state Senate district.

Former US Rep. Cori Bush vs. Rep. Wesley Bell

In Missouri's 1st District in St. Louis, former US Rep. Cori Bush is running for a second time against Rep. Wesley Bell, who defeated her in the 2024 primary after nearly two-thirds of his campaign funding came from the United Democracy Project (UDP), a super political action committee affiliated with AIPAC. The group allocated more than $100 million toward defeating candidates that supported Palestinian rights and opposed US military funding for Israel that year.

Bush told Politico recently that this year's election is no different.

“One of us is of the people, by the people, and for the people,” Bush said in a recent interview. “The other one is paid for by AIPAC."

According to AdImpact, UDP has again spent more than $3 million on advertising in the primary.

While Bell has a clear financial advantage, he lacks the "grassroots army" Bush has, The Intercept recently reported, as well as voter engagement. The former county prosecutor has not shown up to several candidate forums.

Polling in the race has been scarce; a survey released in February that was sponsored by Bush's campaign showed Bell ahead by four points, with 17% of respondents undecided.

Jessica Montgomery, co-chair of the St. Louis DSA chapter, told The Intercept that voters in St. Louis are likely to show "buyer's remorse" regarding Bell in Tuesday's election.

He voted along with 74 other Democrats to "thank" US Immigration and Customs Enforcement in June 2025, when Trump was beginning his violent mass deportation campaign

“There’s a lot of very progressive voters in St. Louis who don’t like the fact that he voted to thank ICE,” Montgomery told the outlet. “I think they want someone who will be more adversarial and will fight back against the Trump administration.”

Bush said Monday that her opponent "is backed by billionaires, MAGA money, and AIPAC. But our movement is backed by the people."