‘Reckless’ Countries to Extract More Than Double the Fossil Fuels Consistent With 1.5°C

Climate advocates on Monday said a new report from three climate think tanks reveals how "just how reckless" some of the world's biggest polluters are when it comes to oil, gas, and coal extraction—which they are planning to ramp up in the coming years despite pledging to take steps to avoid catastrophic fossil-fueled planetary heating a decade ago.

Ten years after the Paris agreement on keeping global warming well below 2°C and just two years after the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), where countries agreed for the first time to transition "away from fossil fuels," the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) joined Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development in releasing its latest Production Gap Report—and revealed that powerful governments are in fact moving in the opposite direction.

"Governments plan to produce 120% the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C," the report found.

In their last analysis in 2023, the groups found a 110% and 69% gap over the 1.5°C and 2°C limits, respectively.

The groups analyzed the 20 largest producers of fossil fuels around the world—including the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Russia, and Canada—that are responsible for 80% of fossil fuel extraction.

Only three of the countries—Norway, the UK, and Australia—currently have plans to reduce oil and gas production by 2030 compared with 2023 levels. Eleven of them—including the US, Germany, and Saudi Arabia—are planning for higher production of at least one type of fossil fuel.

"Trump is fulfilling his dream of petrostate authoritarianism, backed by oil and gas billionaires. Unless we fight to stop it, the whole world is going to pay the price."

Derik Broekhoff, the lead author of the report and a senior scientist at SEI, said in a statement that "while many countries have committed to a clean energy transition, many others appear to be stuck using a fossil-fuel-dependent playbook, planning even more production than they were two years ago.”

The authors stressed that fossil fuel-producing countries are persisting in oil, gas, and coal extraction even as industries know "fossil fuels are on their last legs."

"Clean energy attracted $2 trillion in investment last year—$800 billion more than fossil fuels, and a 70% increase since the Paris agreement," reads the report. "In 2024, 92% of new global power capacity came from renewables, which undercut fossil fuels on price, efficiency, and emissions—even with subsidies artificially keeping fossil fuel prices down."

Neil Grant, a senior expert at Climate Analytics, noted that less demand for fossil fuels could make them cheaper, which could prolong the transition to renewable energy that the vast majority of the world population supports, according to one poll last year.

"We are in the foothills of an energy transition that is going to reshape fossil fuel demand,” Grant told The Guardian. “But many governments are thinking in terms of a world where the energy transition happens very incrementally. There’s a lot of danger, [including that] the voice of the fossil fuel lobby only gets louder and holds us back from this change to a cleaner, better, greener economy. That would lead to climate chaos or significant negative economic impacts.”

"Governments are blundering backwards towards our fossil past," said Grant in a statement, but "rapid reductions are possible, feasible, and they would make our lives better."

Emily Ghosh, a program director at SEI, warned that to limit planetary heating to 1.5°C, "fossil fuel production should have peaked and started to fall."

"Every year of delay significantly increases the pressure," she told The Guardian, adding that a "course correction" is urgently needed.

Jean Su, director of the Energy Justice program at the Center for Biological Diversity, pointed to US President Donald Trump's climate policy, including his move to end tax credits for solar panels and electric vehicles and to cancel the construction of an offshore wind farm.

"Trump is fulfilling his dream of petrostate authoritarianism, backed by oil and gas billionaires. Unless we fight to stop it, the whole world is going to pay the price," said Su.

“This report shows just how reckless the U.S. and other countries are in doubling down on fossil fuels,” she added. “It’s astonishing that in the two years since countries agreed in Dubai to transition off fossil fuels, the U.S. is leading the abandonment of affordable renewables for deadly oil and gas."

Kelly Trout, research director at Oil Change International, emphasized that "it is not yet too late to act."

"With the US driving the majority of global projected oil and gas expansion over the next decade, governments must resist bowing to the Trump administration’s pro-fossil fuel agenda, and instead seize the chance to rapidly shift course," said Trout. "Countries can still deliver the just energy transition away from fossil fuels they promised us two years ago, with other rich Global North producers taking the lead."

The report was released as Colombia announced at the UN General Assembly its intention to host the First International Conference for the Phaseout of Fossil Fuels, aligning with the International Court of Justice's historic advisory opinion this year recognizing countries' legal obligation to protect the climate.

As advocates called for the Production Gap Report to be "both a warning and a guide," Tzeporah Berman of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative said Colombia had signaled "a bold and necessary step towards climate leadership."

"This conference offers a vital opportunity to translate growing support into concrete action," said Berman, "accelerating our shift towards a more sustainable and just energy future for all."