Governments' Fossil Fuel Production Plans Dangerously Out of Sync With Paris Limits

The 2021 Production Gap Report, by leading research institutes and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), finds that despite increased climate ambitions and net-zero commitments, governments still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than what would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5degC.

The report, first launched in 2019, measures the gap between governments' planned production of coal, oil, and gas and the global production levels consistent with meeting the Paris Agreement temperature limits. Two years later, the 2021 report finds the production gap largely unchanged.

Namrata Chowdhary, Chief of Public Engagement at 350.org

"Ahead of the UN Climate summit in two weeks time, the report is a damning indictment for governments whose fossil fuel production plans set the planet on a dangerous trajectory. World leaders need to put their resources where their rhetoric has been; stopping the extraction of oil and gas and directing attention to how we will finance the transition to climate justice instead. For the first time in 30 years, fossil fuel reductions are on the table at the UN climate negotiations - the only real question is whether political leaders will demonstrate the urgency and wisdom required of them, or whether the outcome will once again contain only empty promises."

Over the next two decades, governments are collectively projecting an increase in global oil and gas production, and only a modest decrease in coal production. Taken together, their plans and projections see global, total fossil fuel production increasing out to at least 2040, creating an ever-widening production gap.

"The devastating impacts of climate change are here for all to see. There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5degC, but this window of opportunity is rapidly closing," says Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. "At COP26 and beyond, the world's governments must step up, taking rapid and immediate steps to close the fossil fuel production gap and ensure a just and equitable transition. This is what climate ambition looks like."

The 2021 Production Gap Report provides country profiles for 15 major producer countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Germany, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The country profiles show that most of these governments continue to provide significant policy support for fossil fuel production.

"The research is clear: global coal, oil, and gas production must start declining immediately and steeply to be consistent with limiting long-term warming to 1.5degC," says Ploy Achakulwisut, a lead author on the report and SEI scientist. "However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil fuel production that are vastly in excess of what we can safely burn."

The report's main findings include:

• The world's governments plan to produce around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5degC, and 45% more than consistent with 2degC. The size of the production gap has remained largely unchanged compared to our prior assessments.
• Governments' production plans and projections would lead to about 240% more coal, 57% more oil, and 71% more gas in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5degC.
• Global gas production is projected to increase the most between 2020 and 2040 based on governments' plans. This continued, long-term global expansion in gas production is inconsistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature limits.
• Countries have directed over USD 300 billion in new funds towards fossil fuel activities since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic -- more than they have towards clean energy.
• In contrast, international public finance for production of fossil fuels from G20 countries and major multilateral development banks (MDBs) has significantly decreased in recent years; one-third of MDBs and G20 development finance institutions (DFIs) by asset size have adopted policies that exclude fossil fuel production activities from future finance.
• Verifiable and comparable information on fossil fuel production and support -- from both governments and companies -- is essential to addressing the production gap.

"Early efforts from development finance institutions to cut international support for fossil fuel production are encouraging, but these changes need to be followed by concrete and ambitious fossil fuel exclusion policies to limit global warming to 1.5degC", says Lucile Dufour, Senior Policy Advisor, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

"Fossil-fuel-producing nations must recognize their role and responsibility in closing the production gap and steering us towards a safe climate future," says Mans Nilsson, executive director at SEI. "As countries increasingly commit to net-zero emissions by mid-century, they also need to recognize the rapid reduction in fossil fuel production that their climate targets will require."

The report is produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), ODI, E3G, and UNEP. More than 80 researchers contributed to the analysis and review, spanning numerous universities, think tanks and other research organizations.