World Energy Outlook Exposes Governments’ Climate Action Shortfall

The International Energy Agency’s flagship annual report, the World Energy Outlook (WEO), is a widely recognized energy analysis that explores key trends in energy supply and demand. One year since governments around the world pledged to transition away from fossil fuels at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, the WEO lays bare how much work is left to do for governments to follow through with the policies and funding needed for a livable planet. The 2024 WEO highlights a significant gap between current energy policies and the immediate and rapid declines in oil, gas, and coal necessary to stem the climate crisis. The IEA emphasizes that while renewable energy can ramp up rapidly to meet global energy needs, governments must take more ambitious steps to swiftly and fairly transition away from fossil fuels.

The World Energy Outlook (WEO) shows that:

• Fossil fuel use is set to peak by the end of the decade, but more action is needed to ensure a fair and fast phaseout: In its existing policies scenario (Stated Energy Policies Scenario, STEPS), the IEA again finds that demand for oil and gas will peak by 2030. In contrast, in the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, the only WEO scenario aligned with limiting temperature rise to globally agreed limits, fossil fuel production and use must be slashed by nearly 30% by 2030. Recent growth in fossil fuels and lagging progress on energy efficiency means governments must do much more to turn the tide and achieve the rapid declines in oil, gas, and coal required.
• World leaders must not develop new oil, gas, or coal: Fossil fuels must not be extracted beyond existing fields and mines to remain within the internationally agreed temperature limit. Furthermore, every LNG export project under construction is incompatible with the 1.5°C limit.
• Countries and companies are pushing an oversupply of fossil fuels that risks artificially driving up demand and displacing renewable energy: The WEO’s new “sensitivity case” for gas examines factors that could influence gas use and demand, within governments’ existing policies. It shows the United States and Qatar pushing an oversupply of LNG that could artificially drive up demand to dangerous levels beyond what is projected under existing policy settings, and even displace wind, solar, and heat pumps.
• Global South countries face a massive public funding gap to enable a fast and fair fossil fuel phase-out: IEA data shows only 15 percent of total clean energy investment going to emerging markets and developing economies (excluding China) in 2024. A new global climate finance target (NCQG) will be at the top of the agenda when world leaders meet at the next United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29). To fill the funding gap, climate experts call on rich Global North countries to pay up by committing to at least $1 trillion annually in grants and grant-equivalent finance via the NCQG. Oil Change International research shows rich Global North countries have the means to mobilize over $5 trillion annually for climate action.
• The case for accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is clear and overwhelming. The IEA’s 1.5°C-aligned pathway (Net Zero Emissions) would deliver full energy access to all, cut premature deaths from air pollution in half, increase energy employment, lower household energy bills, create more secure energy systems, and avoid the worst climate devastation.

Kelly Trout, Research Director, Oil Change International, said:

“The World Energy Outlook makes clear we can end the fossil fuel era, but world leaders must act now. While the IEA sees demand for oil, gas, and coal peaking by 2030 even under existing policies, a livable future depends on fossil fuel production rapidly declining starting today. Governments’ failure to end fossil fuel expansion is putting millions of lives in peril. The WEO reveals a huge gap in the funding needed by Global South countries for a just transition to renewable energy, and a fast and fair phase-out of fossil fuels. Our research shows rich Global North countries have the means to fund trillions for climate action on fair terms – if their governments stop stalling and start leading.”

Collin Rees, United States Program Manager, Oil Change International, said:

“The IEA’s new ‘sensitivity case’ for gas in this year’s World Energy Outlook highlights the risk of recent LNG approvals artificially driving gas demand to even more dangerous levels. It’s outrageous the United States is pushing more LNG exports and driving a supply glut when there’s no room for it in a livable climate, and no need for it even in scenarios far off track from climate safety.”