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dean baker
Canadians Fume at Trump 'Tariff Bullying' as Carney Says Ottawa to Recognize Palestine
"It is time to align with human rights and international law. It is not a time to bend the knee," said the National Council of Canadian Muslims.
Jul 31, 2025
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Canada's decision to conditionally recognize Palestinian statehood "will make it very hard" to complete a trade deal with the United States' northern neighbor, prompting widespread condemnation of the president's not-so-thinly-veiled threat.
On Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa will grant formal recognition to Palestine at September's United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York if the Palestinian Authority agrees to hold an election in 2026 and implement other democratic reforms.
Asked if he had consulted the U.S. about recognizing Palestine, Carney told reporters that "we make our own independent foreign policy positions."
Carney's announcement came as Israel—which is facing an ongoing genocide case at the International Court of Justice—is under increasing pressure to end its 663-day, U.S.-backed war and siege on Gaza, which has killed or maimed more than 220,000 Palestinians and fueled famine.
The far-right government of Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes, is also openly pursuing plans to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians so it can be transformed into what Trump has described as "the Riviera of the Middle East."
Critically, Carney's announcement also came amid trade deal negotiations between U.S. and Canadian officials ahead of Trump's August 1 deadline for 35% tariffs on all imported Canadian goods not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
"More evidence there's no limit to Trump's goal to use tariff bullying to chip away at the sovereignty of other countries... on any issue at all," Canadian economist Jim Stanford said Thursday on the social media site X.
"See also his harsh tariffs on Brazil for prosecuting Trump's close friend and coup schemer Bolsonaro," he added, referring to disgraced former far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is also known as the "Trump of the Tropics."
What do we even think we are negotiating here? A "deal" that will be subject to constant threats to tear it up based on the arbitrary moment-to-moment mood swings of our trading partner's president? Trump's word is meaningless, why delude ourselves to believe he'd honour any "deal" we'd negotiate?
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— Luke LeBrun (@lukelebrun.ca) July 31, 2025 at 6:27 AM
Dean Baker, a U.S. economist who co-founded the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said on X: "Looks like Trump wants us all to pay higher taxes in support of Israel's mass murder in Gaza. Can someone explain to me how this is 'America First?'"
The National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM) said on social media that "Donald Trump has openly endorsed plans to ethnically cleanse and annex Gaza, along with his own outrageous ideas of making Canada the 51st state."
"As Canada strikes out an independent foreign policy by planning to recognize Palestinian statehood, Trump's attempt to suggest that the trade deal is in peril because Canada took a step in the right direction is just another transparent attempt at bullying from a man who changes the goal posts in every trade 'negotiation' in any case," the group continued.
"This is the time to stand strongly in support of Canadian values," NCCM added. "It is time to align with human rights and international law. It is not a time to bend the knee. Canada must push forward by imposing further sanctions on Netanyahu's government, reviewing the Canada-Israel Free Trade Agreement, applying a full two-way arms embargo on the [Israel Defense Forces], and helping those escaping Gaza arrive in Canada."
Although Canada's government insists that it has prohibited arms transfers to Israel since January 2024, research by four groups—World Beyond War, the Palestinian Youth Movement, Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East, and Independent Jewish Voices—revealed this week that there have been at least 47 shipments from Canadian weapons manufacturers to Israeli armaments companies between October 2023 and July 2025.
Trump and members of his administration sought to assuage anxiety over U.S. tariff whiplash by promising bigger, better deals. In April, Peter Navarro, the top White House trade adviser, vowed that Trump would hammer out "90 deals in 90 days." However, 90 days later, the U.S. has finalized deals with around half a dozen nations, with the suspension of Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs set to expire on August 1. After that, Trump is set to impose tariffs as high as 50% on many countries.
Trump's attacks on longstanding allies have prompted calls for solidarity among Western democracies as they move to recognize Palestine.
"By trying to bully nations out of recognizing Palestine, Trump is making himself the biggest hurdle to a two-state solution and a lasting peace," British Member of Parliament Ed Davey, who leads the center-left Liberal Democrats, said on the social media site Bluesky Thursday. "The U.K. must stand strong with Canada and our allies, we should recognize the Palestinian state right now. No more delays."
Earlier this week, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain stands poised to formally recognize Palestine at September's UNGA if Israel does not take "substantive" steps to end its war on Gaza, allow aid into the strip, and renounce annexation of the illegally occupied West Bank. Trump signaled that he would not object to U.K. recognition of Palestine.
Around 150 of 193 U.N. member states already recognize Palestine, and this week France and Malta also said they would do so at the UNGA. On Thursday, Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro said that his government "is considering recognition of the Palestinian state."
There have been increased calls for Canada to find ways to lessen its dependence on the U.S.
"Clearly, August 1 is barely the beginning of this struggle for Canada's heart and soul, never mind a 'deadline,'" Stanford asserted. "Regardless of what happens this week, Canada must charge ahead on this epic mission to rebuild an economy that can survive independently of the U.S."
In a bid to gain some independence from their increasingly unreliable neighbor, Canada and Mexico are working to establish a new land and sea trade corridor that would completely bypass the United States, an initiative projected to cost the U.S. economy at least tens of billions of lost dollars, according to PPR Mundial. In addition to utilizing diverse modes of transport, including rail and maritime connections, the bilateral proposal is expected to incorporate advanced digital technologies including blockchain to manage customs and other formalities.
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Call What's Coming the 'Donald J. Trump Recession,' Says Economist
"While a recession may not be fully baked into the cards at this point, the risk is evident and it's almost entirely coming from Donald Trump's policies."
Mar 10, 2025
As U.S. financial markets continued their downward spiral on Monday amid rapidly mounting concerns about the impacts of President Donald Trump's erratic and destructive tariff policies, one economist argued that the president has almost single-handedly engineered economic conditions that could result in a recession in the near future.
"Past recessions have been the result of policy errors or disasters," Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote Monday. "The most typical policy error is when the Federal Reserve Board raises interest rates too much to counter inflation. That was clearly the story in the 1974-75 recession as well as the 1980-82 double-dip recession."
"Then we have recessions caused by collapsing financial bubbles, the 2001 recession following the collapse of the stock bubble and the 2008-09 recession following the collapse of the housing bubble. And of course, we had the 2020 recession because of the Covid pandemic," he added. "But now Donald Trump is threatening us with a recession, not because of something that is any way unavoidable, but rather because as president he has the power to bring on a recession."
Baker pointed specifically to Trump's decision to impose sweeping tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which the economist estimates will cost Americans roughly $2,000 per household as companies push the costs of the tariffs onto consumers in the form of higher prices.
Trump is going to give us a recession, because he can cepr.net/publications...
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— Dean Baker (@deanbaker13.bsky.social) March 10, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Retaliatory measures are also likely to inflict pain on Americans: On Monday, Ontario announced it would charge 25% more for the electricity it provides to Minnesota, New York, and Michigan in response to Trump's tariffs on Canadian imports, a move that's expected to hike electricity bills significantly for ratepayers in those states.
China, meanwhile, hit back at Trump Monday with an additional 15% tariff on U.S. farm products, including chicken, pork, soybeans, and beef.
Trump's tariff policies, and the widespread confusion surrounding their implementation, have sparked a sell-off on Wall Street and broader fears about the state of the U.S. economy as the labor market shows signs of stalling and consumer confidence plunges.
"While a recession may not be fully baked into the cards at this point, the risk is evident and it's almost entirely coming from Donald Trump's policies," Baker argued, noting that while the recession threat is "first and foremost" driven by tariffs, they "are just one possible route."
"The other is Elon Musk's DOGE team attack on the government. If there was ever any doubt, it is now clear that this outfit has nothing to do with increasing government efficiency," Baker wrote. "The direct impact of Musk's job cuts on both the budget and the economy is likely to be small. The bigger impact is the uncertainty they have created in large sectors of the economy."
"In short, Donald Trump has good reasons for telling us that his MAGA policies might give us a recession," he added. "It's hard to know how bad this recession would be, but it will definitely be the 'Donald J. Trump recession.'"
"Will the Trump slump turn into a recession? How will Trump lie and cheat his way out of it? Stay tuned."
Baker's assessment came a day after Trump declined to rule out the possibility of an economic recession in the U.S. this year and downplayed the effects of his tariffs, claiming without a shred of evidence that they will make the country "so rich you're not going to know where to spend all that money."
Trump previously insisted that the U.S. stock sell-off was attributable not to his chaotic tariff announcements, but to "globalists that see how rich our country is going to be and they don't like it."
Former U.S. Labor Secretary Robert Reich wrote Monday that just seven weeks after Trump's inauguration, "the bottom is falling out" of the U.S. economy.
"Stocks are plunging. Treasury yields are falling. Consumer confidence is dropping. Inflation is picking up," Reich wrote. "The cost of living—the single biggest problem identified by consumers over the last several years—is going up, not down. Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, and his threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, are playing havoc with supply chains inside and outside America."
"Even before this Trump slump, only the richest 10% of Americans had enough purchasing power to keep the economy going with their spending. The bottom 90%—including most Trump voters—were barely getting by. The next eighteen months could be rough on millions of people," he continued. "Will the Trump slump turn into a recession? How will Trump lie and cheat his way out of it? Stay tuned."
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The Really Great February Jobs Report
If wage growth is now more or less in line with the 2% target, then the Fed can hold off on further rate hikes.
Mar 12, 2023
The failure of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday overtook the really big event of the day, the February jobs report. The 311,000 jobs were far more than I had expected. I thought the huge January number was a fluke of seasonal adjustments and unusually good winter weather. For that reason, I expected the February number to be very weak, not because I thought the labor market had crashed, but just as a correction to the high number in January.
I was wrong in a very big way. The January number was obviously real and the economy is still creating jobs at a very rapid clip.
This is somewhat concerning in that there is no way the economy can keep creating jobs at this pace without seeing some serious inflationary pressure, but this is where the other part of the good news story comes in. Wage growth slowed in February. The slower growth in February, combined with a downward revision to the January number, gave us a 3.6% annual rate of wage growth over the last three months.
This pace of wage growth is consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. We had wage growth at this pace through much of 2018 and 2019 even as inflation was coming in slightly under the targeted rate.
I ordinarily would not be cheering slower wage growth, but the reality is that the Fed is determined to bring inflation down towards its target. If wages are growing at a pace that is faster than is consistent with its target, it will keep raising rates, and throwing people out of work, until wage growth slows.
If wage growth is now more or less in line with the 2% target, then the Fed can hold off on further rate hikes. Hopefully, it would then allow the economy to continue to grow with the unemployment rate remaining near 3.5%.
Of course, we do need to see real wage growth and inflation has been running faster than 3.5%. However, there are good reasons for believing that inflation will be slowing in the months ahead. Most importantly, we know that inflation in rents will slow sharply, as private indexes measuring rents of units coming up on the market have showed little or no inflation in recent months. The CPI rent index, which measures the rent of all units (both those that come up on the market and those with a continuing tenant) follows these indices with a lag of 6-12 months.
It is also likely that we will see further drops in many of the supply chain goods, most importantly cars, where temporary shortages sent prices soaring in the pandemic. This will help put downward pressure on inflation in goods, and also services like car repairs, where the cost of goods is a large part of the price.
And, we are also likely to see less inflation in food prices. The wholesale prices of many items, most notably eggs, has fallen sharply in the last couple of months. This should show up in lower prices in stores.
If we have a story where wages are rising at a 3.6% annual rate, and inflation falls to under 2.5%, then we would be seeing a respectable pace of real wage growth. We can hope for better, and also that we continue to see disproportionate growth at the bottom, but low unemployment and modest real wage growth is a pretty good picture.
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