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dean baker
‘Yikes’: New Jobs Data Further Undermines Trump Fiction of Thriving Economy
"The booming job market exists only in Donald Trump's demented head," said economist Dean Baker.
Dec 03, 2025
Economists on Wednesday expressed significant concerns after new data from global payroll processing firm ADP estimated that the US economy lost 32,000 jobs last month.
As reported by CNBC, small businesses bore the brunt of the job losses, as firms with fewer than 50 employees shed a total of 120,000 jobs, more than offsetting the 90,000 in job gains reported by firms with 50 or more employees.
The loss of 32,000 jobs in November marked a major miss for economists' consensus estimate of 40,000 jobs added on the month, and CNBC noted that the total number of jobs lost according to ADP data "was the biggest drop since March 2023."
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted in a post on X that the job losses recorded by ADP were widespread across the US economy.
"Yikes," she wrote in reaction to the report. "Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare."
Long also said the disparity between small and large businesses in terms of job growth was more evidence that the US is experiencing a "K-shaped" economy in which those at the top of the economic ladder thrive, even as everyone else struggles.
"Larger companies are still hiring," she explained. "Smaller firms (under 50 workers) are doing the layoffs. It's been a very tough year for small biz due to tariffs and more selective spending from lower and middle-class consumers."
Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, observed that ADP hasn't reported such a big drop in small-business employment since October 2020, when the US economy was suffering through the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, cautioned against reading too much into ADP data, although he added that "in the absence of up to date government payrolls, all other signs point to a further deteriorating labor market."
Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at financial planner Creative Planning, argued that the ADP jobs numbers were part of a negative three-month trend in which the US economy lost an estimated 4,000 jobs per month, which he said was "the first three-month decline since the 2020 recession."
Bilello added that "a year ago, we were adding over 200,000 jobs per month."
Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm KPMG, argued that the ADP report showed job losses in the US economy were "broad based" and "were accompanied by a cooling of wage gains" for workers who still have jobs or are switching from one job to another.
"Those with a job are clinging on, while those without are left wanting," she explained.
Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argued that the ADP report blows up President Donald Trump's spin about the health of the US economy.
"The booming job market exists only in Donald Trump's demented head," he wrote.
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'Not a Pretty Picture,' Expert Says of Trump Economy as Job Growth Grinds to a Halt
"It seems to me like we are looking at a labor market with near-zero labor force growth and near-zero real wage growth," wrote economist Dean Baker. "This means that real labor income in the economy is essentially flat."
Nov 12, 2025
Even without the benefit of recent federal jobs data, which the Trump administration has withheld amid the government shutdown, a prominent US economist argued Wednesday that it's clear the labor market under Donald Trump's leadership is increasingly grim.
Citing private figures that have been used to fill the void left by two consecutive missed jobs reports from the federal government, Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research argued that "we can infer" weak job growth in September and suggested Trump or his aides "likely reviewed the September data and made a decision not to release it."
More broadly, Baker wrote, the payroll firm ADP "shows average private sector job growth of just 10,000 a month for the three months from July to October. Since this excludes the government sector, which likely shed jobs over this period due to federal layoffs (even pre-shutdown), the ADP data imply essentially zero job growth over this period."
"The other part of the story is that wage growth also seems to have slowed especially for workers at the bottom end of the wage distribution," Baker added. "It looks to me like we are looking at a labor market with near-zero labor force growth and near-zero real wage growth. This means that real labor income in the economy is essentially flat."
"That is not a pretty picture from the standpoint of the bulk of the population, and it does not describe a very stable path of economic growth," he continued. "When the AI bubble bursts, things might get really ugly really fast."
Baker's assessment came as CNN reported that President Donald Trump considered "traveling the country to give economy-focused speeches" as consumer sentiment craters, tariffs drive up prices, millions face skyrocketing health insurance premiums, and people across the country reel from the administration's assault on safety net programs.
Publicly, Trump has dismissed the notion that people are struggling economically under his administration, calling polling to that effect "fake."
"The economy's the strongest it's ever been," Trump falsely declared during a recent Fox News interview.
On Tuesday, the White House was widely mocked for citing extremely limited data from the food delivery company DoorDash to proclaim that Trump's agenda is "delivering real results for American families."
They’ve laid off so many people that the government is now getting its economic data from DoorDash.
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— Dare Obasanjo (@carnage4life.bsky.social) Nov 11, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Economist Paul Krugman wrote in a blog post on Wednesday that Trump is beginning to face "backlash against his attempts to gaslight the public about the true state of the economy," pointing to "the blowout Democratic victories in last week’s elections" as just part of that backlash.
"Once again, these attempts aren’t about putting a positive spin on the data. They’re just flat-out lies," Krugman wrote. "And Democrats should hammer those lies as proof not just that Trump is utterly dishonest, but that he’s completely out of touch with the reality of American life."
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Canadians Fume at Trump 'Tariff Bullying' as Carney Says Ottawa to Recognize Palestine
"It is time to align with human rights and international law. It is not a time to bend the knee," said the National Council of Canadian Muslims.
Jul 31, 2025
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Canada's decision to conditionally recognize Palestinian statehood "will make it very hard" to complete a trade deal with the United States' northern neighbor, prompting widespread condemnation of the president's not-so-thinly-veiled threat.
On Wednesday, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced that Ottawa will grant formal recognition to Palestine at September's United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York if the Palestinian Authority agrees to hold an election in 2026 and implement other democratic reforms.
Asked if he had consulted the U.S. about recognizing Palestine, Carney told reporters that "we make our own independent foreign policy positions."
Carney's announcement came as Israel—which is facing an ongoing genocide case at the International Court of Justice—is under increasing pressure to end its 663-day, U.S.-backed war and siege on Gaza, which has killed or maimed more than 220,000 Palestinians and fueled famine.
The far-right government of Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes, is also openly pursuing plans to ethnically cleanse Gaza of Palestinians so it can be transformed into what Trump has described as "the Riviera of the Middle East."
Critically, Carney's announcement also came amid trade deal negotiations between U.S. and Canadian officials ahead of Trump's August 1 deadline for 35% tariffs on all imported Canadian goods not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
"More evidence there's no limit to Trump's goal to use tariff bullying to chip away at the sovereignty of other countries... on any issue at all," Canadian economist Jim Stanford said Thursday on the social media site X.
"See also his harsh tariffs on Brazil for prosecuting Trump's close friend and coup schemer Bolsonaro," he added, referring to disgraced former far-right Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who is also known as the "Trump of the Tropics."
What do we even think we are negotiating here? A "deal" that will be subject to constant threats to tear it up based on the arbitrary moment-to-moment mood swings of our trading partner's president? Trump's word is meaningless, why delude ourselves to believe he'd honour any "deal" we'd negotiate?
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— Luke LeBrun (@lukelebrun.ca) July 31, 2025 at 6:27 AM
Dean Baker, a U.S. economist who co-founded the Center for Economic and Policy Research, said on X: "Looks like Trump wants us all to pay higher taxes in support of Israel's mass murder in Gaza. Can someone explain to me how this is 'America First?'"
The National Council of Canadian Muslims (NCCM) said on social media that "Donald Trump has openly endorsed plans to ethnically cleanse and annex Gaza, along with his own outrageous ideas of making Canada the 51st state."
"As Canada strikes out an independent foreign policy by planning to recognize Palestinian statehood, Trump's attempt to suggest that the trade deal is in peril because Canada took a step in the right direction is just another transparent attempt at bullying from a man who changes the goal posts in every trade 'negotiation' in any case," the group continued.
"This is the time to stand strongly in support of Canadian values," NCCM added. "It is time to align with human rights and international law. It is not a time to bend the knee. Canada must push forward by imposing further sanctions on Netanyahu's government, reviewing the Canada-Israel Free Trade Agreement, applying a full two-way arms embargo on the [Israel Defense Forces], and helping those escaping Gaza arrive in Canada."
Although Canada's government insists that it has prohibited arms transfers to Israel since January 2024, research by four groups—World Beyond War, the Palestinian Youth Movement, Canadians for Justice and Peace in the Middle East, and Independent Jewish Voices—revealed this week that there have been at least 47 shipments from Canadian weapons manufacturers to Israeli armaments companies between October 2023 and July 2025.
Trump and members of his administration sought to assuage anxiety over U.S. tariff whiplash by promising bigger, better deals. In April, Peter Navarro, the top White House trade adviser, vowed that Trump would hammer out "90 deals in 90 days." However, 90 days later, the U.S. has finalized deals with around half a dozen nations, with the suspension of Trump's so-called reciprocal tariffs set to expire on August 1. After that, Trump is set to impose tariffs as high as 50% on many countries.
Trump's attacks on longstanding allies have prompted calls for solidarity among Western democracies as they move to recognize Palestine.
"By trying to bully nations out of recognizing Palestine, Trump is making himself the biggest hurdle to a two-state solution and a lasting peace," British Member of Parliament Ed Davey, who leads the center-left Liberal Democrats, said on the social media site Bluesky Thursday. "The U.K. must stand strong with Canada and our allies, we should recognize the Palestinian state right now. No more delays."
Earlier this week, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain stands poised to formally recognize Palestine at September's UNGA if Israel does not take "substantive" steps to end its war on Gaza, allow aid into the strip, and renounce annexation of the illegally occupied West Bank. Trump signaled that he would not object to U.K. recognition of Palestine.
Around 150 of 193 U.N. member states already recognize Palestine, and this week France and Malta also said they would do so at the UNGA. On Thursday, Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro said that his government "is considering recognition of the Palestinian state."
There have been increased calls for Canada to find ways to lessen its dependence on the U.S.
"Clearly, August 1 is barely the beginning of this struggle for Canada's heart and soul, never mind a 'deadline,'" Stanford asserted. "Regardless of what happens this week, Canada must charge ahead on this epic mission to rebuild an economy that can survive independently of the U.S."
In a bid to gain some independence from their increasingly unreliable neighbor, Canada and Mexico are working to establish a new land and sea trade corridor that would completely bypass the United States, an initiative projected to cost the U.S. economy at least tens of billions of lost dollars, according to PPR Mundial. In addition to utilizing diverse modes of transport, including rail and maritime connections, the bilateral proposal is expected to incorporate advanced digital technologies including blockchain to manage customs and other formalities.
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