Trump Demands Cuts to Child Care, Housing Assistance as Economy Implodes

Today, President Trump unveiled his draconian wish list of budget cuts to child care, health research, education, housing assistance, community development, and more. After spending his first months in office gutting federal agencies, the Trump Administration’s FY2026 Budget targets an additional $163 billion in funding for programs relied on by working families.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress are scrambling to defund Medicaid, food assistance, and other vital programs that millions of Americans depend on during economic downturns so the GOP can pass another round of tax breaks for the ultra-wealthy. Groundwork Collaborative’s Chief of Policy and Advocacy Alex Jacquez reacted with the following statement:

“Budgets reveal priorities, and it’s clear that President Trump doesn’t care about making life more affordable for working families. He is driving the economy into a recession and gutting the programs that Americans will need to weather the storm. Americans want relief from Trump’s economic doom-loop, not another billionaire tax giveaway.”

Email press@groundworkcollaborative.org to speak with a Groundwork expert about today’s jobs report and President Trump’s handling of the economy.

THIS WEEK IN THE TRUMP SLUMP: New polling and economic indicators continue to show that President Trump is deliberately engineering a recession.

Economic Indicators:

• GDP showed a 0.3% decrease in the first quarter of 2025, landing below expectations. This is the first negative GDP reading since Q2 of 2022.
• Consumer confidence, measured by the Conference Board, showed a fifth straight month of decline, the worst since the COVID-19 pandemic, with consumer expectations at a 13-year low. Additionally, the Expectations Index dropped to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011, and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession. Expectations of inflation over the next year have climbed to 7.0%, the highest since November 2022.
• The latest Manufacturing ISM report found the manufacturing sector contracted in April for the second month in a row. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7% this month, down 0.3 points from March.
  • Exports declined by 6.5 points (the largest drop since 2020), imports dropped by 3 points, and production fell by 4.3 points compared to last month. Meanwhile, Trump’s tariffs are sending prices through the roof. The ISM Prices Index registered 69.8%, the highest reading in nearly three years, driven mostly by increases in steel and aluminum prices.

Polling

• 72 percent — including 51 percent of Republicans — say it’s at least “somewhat” likely that Trump’s economic policies will lead to a recession, according to a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll.
• Polling from Reuters/Ipsos found that Trump’s economic approval rating dropped to 36%, the lowest point of either of his presidencies.
• Navigator Research found that Trump’s economic approval ratings are 16 points underwater, after being +1 at his inauguration. This is below even his overall approval.
  • Navigator also found that nearly 70 percent of Americans view the current state of the economy negatively, and a majority believe Trump’s policies are contributing to the rising cost of living.
• A CNN poll found that almost 6 in 10 Americans think Trump’s policies are making the economy worse.

Expert Commentary

• Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody’s Analytics, warned of a “recession dead ahead” if Trump continued his trade war. He tweeted, “The Conference Board consumer confidence survey fell sharply to 86 in April. It is off 19.3 points in the past 3 months. Just shy of the recession threshold of 20. Unless the trade war cools off very (very) soon, recession appears dead-ahead.”
• Goldman Sachs said that Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation and halt economic growth. “We continue to believe the risk from April 2 tariffs is greater than many market participants have previously assumed,” they wrote.
• Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist for Nationwide, warned that the economy will slow down in the upcoming months as tariffs kick in and businesses are hesitant to spend. Bostjancic said, “Once everything kicks in, we’ll have a slower economy, the labor market slowing. Hiring has already stalled, and we expect the unemployment rate to start to rise.”
• According to Bloomberg, economists are projecting a 45% chance of a recession, up 30% from March.
• Jamie Dimon reportedly told investors that a mild recession would be the “best-case” scenario from Trump’s trade war.