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nationally determined contributions
Nations' Climate Plans Could Cause 2.5°C of Warming, Imperiling 'Livable Future'
"Years of grossly insufficient action from richer nations and continued climate deception and obstruction by fossil fuel interests are directly responsible for bringing us here," one expert said.
Nov 04, 2025
A United Nations assessment released Tuesday—less than a week before the UN Climate Change Conference summit in Brazil—warns that countries' latest pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement could push global temperatures to 2.3-2.5°C above preindustrial levels, up to a full degree beyond the treaty's primary goal.
A decade after that agreement was finalized, only about a third of state parties submitted new plans, officially called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), for the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target.
While the updated NDCs—if fully implemented—would be a slight improvement on the 2.6-2.8°C projection in last year's report, the more ambitious Paris target is to limit global temperature rise this century to 1.5°C. Already, the world is beginning to experience what that looks like: Last year was the hottest on record and the first in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C, relative to preindustrial times.
As with those findings, UNEP's report sparked calls for bold action at COP30 in Belém next week, including from UN Secretary-General António Guterres. He noted that "scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5°C is now inevitable—starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day."
"1.5°C by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: This goal is still within reach."
"But this is no reason to surrender," Guterres argued. "It's a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5°C by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: This goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition."
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen also stressed that while inadequate climate policies have created the conditions in which now "we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop," reaching the Paris goal "is still possible—just."
"Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done," she said. "Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action—action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security, and resilience."
NEW – UNEP: New country climate plans ‘barely move needle’ on expected warming | @ayeshatandon.carbonbrief.org @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org @unep.org Read here: buff.ly/U0XaME9
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— Carbon Brief (@carbonbrief.org) November 4, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Climate campaigners responded with similar statements. Savio Carvalho, head of regions at the global advocacy group 350.org, said that "this report confirms what millions already feel in their daily lives: Governments are still failing to deliver on their promises. The window to keep 1.5°C within reach is closing fast, but it is not yet gone."
"All eyes are now on Belém," Carvalho declared. "COP30 must be a turning point, where leaders stop making excuses, phase out fossil fuels, and scale up renewable energy in a way that is fast, fair, and equitable."
Rachel Cleetus, senior policy director for the Climate and Energy Program at the US-based Union of Concerned Scientists, said that "this report's findings, confirming that a crucial science-based benchmark for limiting dangerous climate change is about to be breached, are alarming, enraging, and heartbreaking."
"Years of grossly insufficient action from richer nations and continued climate deception and obstruction by fossil fuel interests are directly responsible for bringing us here," she highlighted. "World leaders still have the power to act decisively to sharply rein in heat-trapping emissions and any other choice would be an unconscionable dereliction of their responsibility to humanity."
Cleetus—a regular attendee of the annual UN climate talks who will be at COP30, unlike President Donald Trump's administration—continued:
Costly and deadly climate impacts are already widespread and will worsen with every fraction of a degree, harming people's health and well-being, as well as the economy. Policymakers must seize the opportunity now to accelerate deployment of renewable energy and energy efficiency—solutions that are plentiful, clean, and affordable—and transition away from polluting fossil fuels. Protecting people, livelihoods, and ecosystems by helping them adapt to climate hazards is also critical as higher temperatures unleash rapidly worsening heat, floods, storms, wildfires, drought, and sea-level rise.
Ambitious climate action can cut energy costs, improve public health, and create a myriad of economic opportunities. Richer, high-emitting countries' continued failure to tackle the challenge head-on is undermining the well-being of their own people and is a monumental injustice toward lower-income countries that have contributed the least to this problem yet bear the most acute harms. It’s past time for wealthy countries to heed the latest science and pay up for their role in fueling the climate crisis. With alarms blaring, the upcoming UN climate talks must be a turning point in global climate action. Powerful politicians and billionaires who willfully ignore urgent realities and continue to delay, distract, or lie about climate change will have to answer to our children and grandchildren.
Jean Su, director of the Center for Biological Diversity's Energy Justice Program, also plans to attend COP30.
"This report shows Earth's livable future hanging in the balance while Trump tells climate diplomacy to go to hell," she said. "The US exit from Paris threatens to cancel out any climate gains from other countries. The rise of petro-authoritarianism in the US shouldn't be an excuse for other countries to backpedal on their own commitments. This report sends alarm bells to rich countries with a conscience to exercise real leadership and lead a fossil fuel phaseout to protect us all."
The UNEP report was released on the same day that the German environmental rights group Urgewald published its Global Oil and Gas Exit List, which shows that a green transition is being undercut by fossil fuel extraction and production.
Other publications put out in the lead-up to COP30 include an Oxfam International report showing that the wealthiest people on the planet are disproportionately fueling the climate emergency, as well as a UN Food and Agriculture Organization analysis warning that human-induced land degradation "is undermining agricultural productivity and threatening ecosystem health worldwide."
There have also been mounting demands for specific action, such as Greenpeace and 350.org urging governments to pay for climate action in part by taxing the ultrarich, and an open letter signed by advocacy organizations, activists, policymakers, artists, and experts urging world leaders to prioritize health during discussions in Brazil next week.
As Common Dreams reported earlier Tuesday, COP30 Special Envoy for Health Ethel Maciel said that "this letter sends an unequivocal message that health is an essential component of climate action."
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Ahead of COP30, UN Report Shows 1.5°C Will Be Breached as Countries Pledge Just 10% Emissions Cut
“The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years," said UN chief António Guterres. "We don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course."
Oct 28, 2025
Ahead of the United Nations' global summit on the climate emergency in Belém, Brazil, a report on countries' climate plans released Tuesday served as both "a progress update and a warning siren," one campaigner said.
According to the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Synthesis Report, governments have submitted plans to the UN that would reduce fossil fuel emissions by just 10% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels, a fraction of what is needed to keep the planet from warming more than 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures.
The report includes climate action plans from fewer than a third of the nations that signed the Paris Agreement, the legally binding treaty demanding countries take action to limit planetary heating to 1.5°C, a decade ago.
China and the European Union have not yet submitted their NDCs ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference (COP30), and in the United States, President Donald Trump ordered the country's withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time earlier this year and has been pushing for more fossil fuel extraction while dismantling renewable energy projects.
The report's projection includes a plan that was submitted by the US in the last weeks of the Biden administration, which Trump has said he has no plans to fulfill.
Without officially submitting an NDC, China has pledged to cut its carbon emissions by 7-10% of their peak by 2035, and the EU has been debating a reduction of 62-72.5%.
Judging from the commitments that have been made so far, UN Secretary-General António Guterres told The Guardian and Amazon-based news outlet Sumaúma that the 1.5°C goal will be breached, at least temporarily,
"Overshooting is now inevitable," he said, noting that an international goal should now be to reverse course on emissions in time to return to the 1.5°C mark by the end of the century.
“Let’s recognize our failure,” he told the outlets. “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5°C has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs."
Guterres said it is "absolutely indispensable to change course in order to make sure that the overshoot is as short as possible and as low in intensity as possible to avoid tipping points like the Amazon. We don’t want to see the Amazon as a savannah. But that is a real risk if we don’t change course and if we don’t make a dramatic decrease of emissions as soon as possible.”
"The success of COP30 now hinges less on the maths of new targets and more on the politics closing the ambition gap and accelerating a fair and fast transition from fossil fuels to renewables.”
The report was released a week after Brazil's government announced it was opening up the Amazon rainforest to oil drilling even as the country is set to host COP30, where campaigners hope to focus on implementing climate action plans. Earlier this month, researchers in the United Kingdom found that the world's coral reefs have been driven to a tipping point by surging global temperatures.
“Ten years on from Paris, governments are still allowing fossil fuel companies to call the shots," said Illan Zugman, managing director for Latin America at 350.org. "We see progress in words, but not yet in the numbers. Every new oil field or gas terminal wipes out the gains made in these NDCs. Just kilometers from where COP30 will take place, new licenses are being given out. Real climate leadership means drawing the line on fossil fuels now."
Steffen Menzel, program lead for climate diplomacy and geopolitics at the think tank E3G, noted that "while some developed and developing countries are providing clear examples to follow, delays and lackluster pledges from major emitters such as the EU and China have undermined the effectiveness of the Paris Agreement.”
Despite their power and resources, said World Wildlife Fund global NDC enhancement coordinator Shirley Matheson, "major G20 economies still haven’t submitted their targets with less than a fortnight to go before COP30 begins."
“While countries are making genuine progress, the gap between words and action remains dangerously wide," said Matheson. “At COP30, the G20 must stop hesitating and start delivering. It’s time to turn the slow jog into a sprint by supercharging a clean and fair energy transition. This means increasing the share of renewable energy while phasing out fossil fuels, mobilizing climate finance, and ending deforestation and the wider destruction of nature. The world can’t afford delay disguised as diplomacy.”
Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, emphasized that renewables in many countries "are booming and meet all new electricity demand this year and fossil fuels are finally showing signs of peaking."
"Yet, all progress is still far too slow," said Sieber. "The success of COP30 now hinges less on the maths of new targets and more on the politics closing the ambition gap and accelerating a fair and fast transition from fossil fuels to renewables.”
Zugman stressed that many governments around the world "have the technology, the money, and the public support for a clean energy transition."
"What’s missing is political courage," said Zugman. "Until we stop funding fossil fuels and start taxing their billions, we will keep losing precious time.”
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New Biden Emissions Targets Seen as No Match for Looming Trump Attacks on Climate
With Donald Trump beginning his term next month, "it'll be up to states and other national leaders to defy Trump and move us quickly away from planet-heating fossil fuels."
Dec 19, 2024
With U.S. President-elect Donald Trump set to take office in just over a month, green groups on Thursday greeted President Joe Biden's new climate goal with a blunt assessment of the likelihood of significantly slashing plant-heating fossil fuel emissions in the coming years.
Under Trump, said several advocates, meeting the goal set by Biden will take far-reaching action by state and local governments—as the incoming Republican president, who has dismissed the climate crisis as a "scam" and a "hoax," is expected to ramp up emissions with his plans to repeal key federal regulations.
Biden's announcement on Thursday pertained to the country's nationally determined contribution (NDC), which is required by the 2015 Paris climate agreement—a pact Trump has said the U.S. will exit after he takes office, as it did during his first term. The government's new climate target, Biden said, is a 61-66% emissions reduction from 2005 levels by 2035.
The administration anticipates methane reductions of at least 35% from 2005 levels in 2035—a key component of achieving the NDC, as methane is more than 28 times as potent as carbon dioxide at trapping heat in the atmosphere.
The target is a significant step up from the one set in 2021, when Biden pledged to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% below 2005 levels by 2030.
But Oil Change International said the goal set on Thursday underscores the Biden administration's overall approach to emissions reductions: a "failed strategy of counting on clean energy to displace fossil fuels without simultaneous efforts to stop fossil fuels," as U.S. campaign manager Collin Rees said.
In a video address, Biden said his efforts to invest billions of dollars into renewable energy technology and to regulate fossil fuel emissions from some power plants and other sources have amounted to "the boldest climate agenda in American history."
But by approving fossil fuel infrastructure like ConocoPhillips' Willow project, Biden has angered groups that have demanded the U.S. act on climate experts' warnings that continued oil and gas extraction has no place on a pathway to limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
"Under Biden, even as clean energy surged, America became the world's planet wrecker-in-chief, planning the largest oil and gas expansion of any country over the next decade," said Rees. "As history's largest polluter and second-biggest current emitter, the U.S. has a unique responsibility to lead on climate action. This NDC fails to deliver the bold commitments needed to halt America's booming oil and gas expansion and support vulnerable Global South nations bearing the brunt of a crisis they didn't cause."
Oil Change International applauded the president's acknowledgment that fossil fuels must be phased out—but emphasized that the NDC "doesn't commit to doing it."
The Rhodium Group estimated in a study this week that Biden's current climate policies could achieve a 38-56% emissions reduction below 2005 levels by 2035.
Last year, emissions were reduced about 17% from 2005 levels, but no significant reduction is expected this year because rising electricity demand has offset renewable energy progress, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But if Trump rolls back a majority of Biden's policies, like methane regulations unveiled earlier this year and subsidies and tax incentives for clean energy included in the Inflation Reduction Act, the U.S. may only be able to reduce its emissions by 24-40% by 2030.
"As history's largest polluter and second-biggest current emitter, the U.S. has a unique responsibility to lead on climate action."
The new percentage reduction goal in the new NDC was "good to see," said Jean Su, energy justice director at the Center for Biological Diversity.
"But it'll be up to states and other national leaders to defy Trump and move us quickly away from planet-heating fossil fuels," said Su. "While Biden's pledge rightly reiterates the need to get off dirty energy, the real work lies in rooting out the corrupting political influence of oil, gas, and utilities. As climate deniers and corporate grifters sleaze into the White House, leaders at every level who actually care about the planet will have to fight twice as hard to hold polluters accountable for the economic and environmental havoc they're wreaking around the globe."
The U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of 24 governors whose states represent 57% of the U.S. economy and 54% of the population, pledged on Thursday to work together to achieve the NDC announced by Biden.
The alliance—whose governors represent states including California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota—said it has already "reduced its collective net greenhouse gas emissions by 19% between 2005 and 2022, while increasing collective GDP by 30%, and is on track to meet its near-term climate goal by reducing collective greenhouse gas emissions 26% below 2005 levels by 2025."
"The coalition's states and territories are collectively employing more workers in the clean energy sector, achieving lower levels of dangerous air pollutants, and preparing more effectively for climate impacts than the rest of the country," said the alliance.
U.S. Climate Alliance co-chair Kathy Hochul, the governor of New York, said the NDC "will serve as our North Star, guiding us in the years to come and keeping America on track toward a cleaner, safer future."
Rachel Cleetus, policy director and lead economist for the Climate and Energy Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said that though Biden's new NDC falls short "of what the science requires," it will also provide "an important benchmark to propel further climate action by cities, states, Tribal nations, and businesses in the years ahead."
"The strengthened U.S. NDC announced today by the Biden administration underscores that working together to collectively address climate change is in the best interest of the United States and the world," said Cleetus. "Cutting fossil fuel pollution sharply and building a thriving economy powered by clean energy is good for national prosperity and people's health and pocketbooks. It's encouraging to see the NDC also call for measures to address the full breadth and scope of heat-trapping emissions, including potent methane, across the economy."
But Cleetus emphasized that "much work remains to be done by world leaders and policymakers, especially if President-elect Trump—who seems hellbent on dismantling widely popular clean energy policies and boosting fossil fuel company profits—once again exits the Paris climate agreement."
"Today marks one of many important milestones on the path toward keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement within reach for the betterment of current and future generations," she said.
Rees called on Biden to take other specific steps to cement his climate legacy and reduce U.S. emissions, including rejecting pending liquefied natural gas exports, shutting down the Dakota Access Pipeline, and ending financing for international fossil fuel projects.
"With Trump looming, Biden is squandering his last chance to lock in ambitious commitments to stop the massive growth of oil and gas production—commitments that could guide future federal action and inspire immediate state and local initiatives," said Rees. "The clock is ticking—for the Biden administration and our planet."
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