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We need to keep listening—and we need to keep speaking. For we don’t know whose “yopp” or “yapp” or any other utterance will break through the racket of the Big Tech buildout.
When my son was three years old, he insisted upon hearing Horton Hears a Who! every night. Twice. As this lasted for several months, I got pretty good at reading quickly, tearing through the opening page in one breath—"On the 15th of May, in the Jungle of Nool, In the heat of the day, in the cool of the pool"—so that the words ran together, like a kind of Dr. Seuss verbal soup. Horton is a sweet story about a keen-eared elephant determined, against all odds,to save the diminutive Whos, despite being ridiculed because no one else could hear them.
Given all the great picture books around, this restrictive reading diet left me perplexed. Was its appeal that it was set on May 15, the day before my son’s birthday? (To this day we all mark “Horton’s Day” with a round of silly texts.) Or that it was the teensiest Who whose off-hand “yopp” finally nudged Whoville past the aural threshold? Perhaps it was Horton’s stalwart conviction that "a person’s a person, no matter how small," a sentiment that must have enchanted a small boy stuck in a land of grownups. I venture it’s all three.
The feeling the story evokes so well—that of being invisible, and, in this case, inaudible—is universal. Everyone who was once a child has been there. Despite writing a bunch of books and giving all sorts of talks, this feeling now resonates far more than when I was a young mom speed-reading to my toddler. For you don’t need to live on a speck of dust to know that today, more than ever, little people aren’t seen and their concerns rarely get heard.
We are all Whos now.
There is indeed a crescendo of voices railing against the spoilage and surrender of nature for tech.
One scenario that really makes me feel like a Who—pounding brass pans so that someone, anyone, listens—is the way new technology buildouts are harming the natural world. Here in New England, forests and once-productive farms are being cleared for solar, while water-hungry data centers claim chunks of land in areas vulnerable to drought. Around the globe—from India to Mexico, Papua New Guinea to Mongolia—entire areas are rendered toxic due to mining the metals that animate our devices. In several places, most notoriously Congo’s cobalt mines, children as young as six spend their days in tunnels plying ores with their bare hands.
In the book, Horton is repeatedly mocked for tending the particle upon which the Whos live. The mama kangaroo and her joey say, "Humpf!" and the gang of monkeys calls the existence of Whos “nonsense”—before conspiring to drop the speck in a sea of clover. Here in our jungle equivalent, hostility to tech infrastructure is derided as “NIMBYISM” and those opposed to it scorned as Luddites. Expanding computation and energy capacity is vital for progress, even marquee environmentalists tell us. As for the ecological and human cost, well, we can’t achieve a “green energy transition” without making a bit of a mess.
We also hear from our political reps, many of whom stand to benefit handily from AI expansion, that the spread of resource-intensive computational apparatus is “unstoppable” and “not going away.” Really? The truth is: People don’t want this. At college commencements, tech titans called in to inspire new graduates about AI’s rosy future have been met with boos. But you have to listen hard, past the din of machines and the money—a bunch of zeros on a screen—that feeds them. It seems the plan is to ram all this development through so that a critical mass are dependent on the technology and the rest of us have no choice but to use it. “Inevitable,” indeed.
We need to keep listening—and we need to keep speaking. For we don’t know whose “yopp” or “yapp” or any other utterance will break through the racket. It could be the cries of juvenile sea turtles that drift about the Blake Plateau, a biodiverse undersea basin now eyed for mining nodules rich in rare metals. Or the weeping of Gullah-Geechee ancestors, thousands of whom died here during the Middle Passage en route to Charleston. Or the plaint of hundreds of villagers in a 1,000-year-old Scottish village gathered to call bullshit on claims that a massive new “hyperscale” data center would serve the community. Or the high-pitched cackle of the Andean Flamingo: outrageously pink on stick-thin legs—Dr. Seuss would have had fun drawing them. The birds are lamenting that their wetland habitat in the Atacama Desert highlands is being pumped to produce the lithium essential for energy storage.
There is indeed a crescendo of voices railing against the spoilage and surrender of nature for tech. Just like the townsfolk of Whoville, we need all of us to exclaim, "We are here! We are here! We are here!"
If he simply persists in his policies for another 37 months, his impact on the American version of a world order will undoubtedly prove so profound that it will strain the limits of language.
For writers, the future has long been a tricky terrain. While the past can prove unsettling and the present uncomfortable, the future seems to free the mind from reality’s restraints and let the imagination soar. Yet it has also proven full of political pitfalls.
Sometimes writers can tweak a trend of their moment to produce a darkly dystopian future, as with George Orwell’s omniscient tyranny in 1984, Margaret Atwood’s institutionalized misogyny in The Handmaid’s Tale, or Ray Bradbury’s book-burning autocracy in Fahrenheit 451. And ever since H.G. Wells’s novel War of the Worlds (about technologically advanced Martians invading this planet) was published in 1898, space has been a particularly fertile frontier for the literary imagination. It has given us Isaac Asimov’s seven-part galactic Foundation fable, Frank Herbert’s ecological drama Dune, and Philip K. Dick’s post-nuclear wasteland in Blade Runner, opening us to possible techno-futures beyond our mud-bound presence on this small planet.
From the time that Henry George published his influential futuristic treatise Progress and Poverty in 1879, inspiring many of the Progressive Era’s key reforms, American writers across the political spectrum have used the future to frame an agenda for present-day political action, sometimes progressive, sometimes violently regressive. Published in 1938, Ayn Rand’s second novel, Anthem, was a futuristic saga whose hero, named “Equality 7-2521,” rejected the socialist society that raised him and struggled to rediscover his inherent individuality, articulating libertarian ideals that would inspire generations of American conservatives. And amid the social turmoil of the 1970s, William Luther Pierce’s The Turner Diaries imagined a future armed revolt against the US government that has provoked violence from generations of white nationalists.
So, with some trepidation, let me venture into the immediate future and imagine what the United States will be like when President Donald J. Trump finally leaves office (if, of course, he does) in January 2029. To keep such projections within the bounds of possibility, let’s clip the wings of our imaginations and hew closely to Trump’s policies and policy statements.
In just 11 action-packed months since his January inauguration, President Trump has already demolished the fundamental geopolitics that have undergirded US global hegemony for the past 80 years. Even if he simply persists in his policies for another 37 months, his impact on the American version of a world order will undoubtedly prove so profound that it will strain the limits of language.
To grasp something of the scope of his impact, it’s necessary to briefly outline the world order Washington built over those 80 years. After fighting for four years and sacrificing 400,000 lives during World War II, Washington captured vital bastions at both ends of the vast Eurasian land mass and spent the next 40 years of the Cold War ensuring its control of that strategic continent with circles of steel—military alliances like NATO, hundreds of overseas military bases, powerful naval fleets, and a massive armada of nuclear-armed aircraft and missiles. With the Sino-Soviet communist bloc largely trapped behind what came to be known as the Iron Curtain, Washington crushed most of their attempts to break out of geopolitical isolation with deft covert operations. As the communists flailed, the US continued to build a global order, while patiently waiting for those socialist economies to implode.
President Trump has put forward a tricontinental geopolitical vision for the world’s major powers—with Russia dominant in the old Soviet sphere, China acting as an Asian hegemon, and the US securing the Americas.
When the Cold War finally ended in 1991, Washington got busy knitting the world into a unified market through massive capital exports, free-trade agreements, and a grid of global communications, thanks in part to satellites and fiber-optic cables. Beyond its awesome array of raw economic and military power (and the distinctly less than successful wars that it fought), Washington prettied up its intrusions into sovereign societies worldwide through its advocacy of universal human rights, its commitment to the rule of law (unless it got in the way of American interests), and its support for international institutions like the United Nations that assured inviolable sovereignty for even the smallest of countries. Thanks to a delicate balance of force, beneficence, and self-interest, the United States would enjoy both great national wealth and historically unprecedented global dominance.
Washington’s world order, like any complex global system, was distinctly flawed and its failings were (to say the least) legion, but its achievements weren’t inconsequential either. After two world wars that left 100 million dead, there has not been a major global conflagration for 80 years (though from Korea and Vietnam to Afghanistan and Iraq, there were all too many disastrous American-inspired local or regional wars). The share of the world’s population living on less than $3 a day dropped markedly from 43% in 1990 to just 11% in 2020. Reflecting those improved conditions, average life expectancy worldwide rose sharply for the first time in several centuries, from 46 years in 1950 to 72 years in 2020. Similarly, the world literacy rate climbed from 66% in 1976 to 87% in 2020. Whether from choice or necessity, we humans have enjoyed increasing freedom of movement, with the number of migrants globally reaching a record 304 million in 2024, representing nearly 4% of the total global population.
Not only did the US have the largest economy and military budget, but until recently, it was the world’s leading donor for public health and poverty eradication, sparing many millions of the world’s poor from the worst kinds of hunger and disease. All of those significant improvements in the human condition had complex causes, but the fundamental fact remains that they were products, direct or indirect, of Washington’s world order.
Then came President Donald Trump. From the first day of his second term in office in January 2025, he set out to tear down the US global order and transform America’s place in the world. With billionaire Elon Musk serving as his in-house wrecking ball, he quickly demolished the US Agency for International Development (USAID), slashing more than 80% of American nutritional and medical aid in ways expected, by 2030, to lead to a staggering 14 million extra deaths globally (including more than 4.5 million children). The misery now being inflicted on poor people crowded into cesspool camps from the Congo to Bangladesh defies description. In addition, by shutting down Voice of America broadcasts along with those USAID programs, the US has committed what one former NATO official called “soft power suicide,” clearing the way, as political scientist Joseph Nye put it, for China “to fill the vacuum that Trump is creating.”
Throughout the Cold War and its aftermath, a key US force multiplier was its global network of alliances—the Rio Pact for the Americas, five key bilateral pacts along the Pacific-island chain from Japan to Australia, and, above all, the extraordinarily effective NATO alliance for Europe. In 11 short months, Trump has already ruptured all the alliances that assured America’s security for some 75 years. On April 2 (or what he called “liberation day”), the president also slapped punitive tariffs on imports from loyal allies, ranging from 20% for the European Union to 24% for Japan.
Reflecting his longstanding hostility to the NATO alliance, particularly its Article Five mutual-defense clause, Trump’s recently released National Security Strategy (NSS) states that Europe faces “the stark process of civilizational erasure,” battered by “regulatory suffocation,” multi-racial migration, and “cratering birthrates” that raise the question of whether its nations will stay “strong enough to remain reliable allies.” Through their supposed “subversion of democratic processes,” the president has also claimed that European governments are resisting US attempts “to negotiate an expeditious cessation of hostilities in Ukraine.” To save Europe from itself, in that NSS the Trump administration came out for the growth of “patriotic European parties” (in other words, far-right ones), while discouraging the very idea of NATO “as a perpetually expanding alliance.”
In case anyone missed the meaning of that message, Trump told a Politico interviewer on December 8 that some European leaders are “real stupid” because their tolerance of immigrants from places like the “prisons of the Congo” will ensure that key European nations like Germany “will not be viable countries any longer.”
More broadly, President Trump has put forward a tricontinental geopolitical vision for the world’s major powers—with Russia dominant in the old Soviet sphere, China acting as an Asian hegemon, and the US securing the Americas. By claiming Greenland, branding Canada “the 51st state,” and threatening to reclaim the Panama Canal during his first weeks in office, Trump articulated a strategy grounded, not in global hegemony, but in geopolitical dominance over the Western Hemisphere.
Formalizing that strategy in the recent NSS, the White House proclaimed a ”Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine” aimed at a “potent restoration of American power” to achieve an unchallenged “American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere.” To that end, the US will reduce its “global military presence to address urgent threats in our Hemisphere,” deploy the US Navy to “control sea lanes,” and use “tariffs and reciprocal trade agreements as powerful tools” to make the Western Hemisphere “an increasingly attractive market for American commerce.” It will also push out “non-Hemispheric competitors” (think: China), giving the US distinctly preferential access to the region’s “many strategic resources.” In essence, according to the NSS, “the United States must be preeminent in the Western Hemisphere as a condition of our security and prosperity.”
In reality, Trump was miming the convoluted Victorian rhetoric of President Theodore Roosevelt’s famed corollary to the Monroe Doctrine. In a December 1904 message to Congress, Roosevelt disdained any “unmanly” inclination to a “peace of tyrannous terror, the peace of craven weakness, the peace of injustice.” Instead, he embraced the manly duty of the “great civilized nations of the present day” to ensure that the countries of the Western Hemisphere remain “stable, orderly, and prosperous.” Cases of “chronic wrongdoing… may… force the United States, however reluctantly… to the exercise of an international police power.” Faced with the “intolerable conditions in Cuba” (then under Spanish rule), T.R. proclaimed it “our manifest duty” to take “justifiable and proper” action “in asserting the Monroe Doctrine.” (Think Venezuela at the moment!)
Though he promised the use of only a restrained “police power” in the Western Hemisphere, Roosevelt opened the door to decades of US interventionism, with the Marines occupying Nicaragua for 20 years (1912-33), Haiti for 19 years (1915-34), and the Dominican Republic for nine years (1916-24). Just as Trump’s chatter about making Canada the “51st state” has sparked “anger and incredulity” in America’s closest ally, so his proclamation of a Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, exemplified by his recent devastating gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean Sea, is likely to inflame the anti-imperialist sentiment that lies just beneath the skin of Latin America, thereby corroding relations with our southern neighbors.
While Trump’s posture toward Latin America is grimly clear, his Asia-Pacific policy seems muddled by ambiguity, if not outright confusion. In early October, oblivious to the rapid erosion of US hegemony in Asia, Trump declared a “trade war” with China, imposing a 130% tariff on its imports and a complete ban on exporting “critical software” to that country. By month’s end, however, he had to swallow his bravado after Beijing retaliated by barring the export of strategic rare earth metals needed for the US military’s weaponry (and so much else). That forced Trump to “fold” during his October 30 summit with China’s President Xi Jinping in South Korea—quickly rescinding his high tariffs and removing the ban on the export of Nvidia’s semiconductor chips that China desperately needs for Artificial Intelligence.
In the seven years since Trump’s last trade war with China in 2018, as the Wall Street Journal reported, that country has pursued “greater self-reliance in food and energy… for an era of sustained hostilities with the US.” According to the New York Times, the vivid diplomatic defeat at that South Korean summit was an historic inflection point, showing that “China could now face America as a true peer” and had already become “America’s geopolitical equal.”
Trump’s delusions of dominance over China pervade his recent National Security Strategy. Amid all its self-indulgent palaver, it displays a dangerously willful ignorance about fast-changing geopolitical realities in the Asia-Pacific region. By the time Trump leaves office in 2029, China’s gross domestic product will already be larger than America’s and it’s expected to become 36% bigger in the years to follow.
Just as Trump’s “America First” foreign policy is damaging the country’s diplomatic relations with Asia, Europe, and Latin America, so his domestic policies are likely to cripple this country’s economic competitiveness. Despite his stated commitment to building “the world’s most robust industrial base,” his energy policy is damaging, if not destroying, the country’s largest industry—automobile manufacturing. In 2024, the US automobile industry produced 3% of the country’s gross domestic product, created more than 8 million jobs, supplied transport for 92% of all American households, and accounted for $1.6 trillion in consumer finance, second only to home mortgages.
By his aggressive attack on the very idea of climate change and on America’s once-promising green-energy infrastructure, President Trump is inflicting serious damage on Detroit’s future capacity to compete against China’s rapidly rising production of electric vehicles (EVs). According to the International Energy Agency, EV purchases will reach 20 million in 2025, or one-quarter of world auto sales, and are on track to hit 40% by 2030, with China already accounting for 70% of global EV production. While EVs are still 30% more expensive than gas vehicles in the US, in China they are less expensive and now account for 60% of that country’s car sales (compared to just 11% in the US).
By 2029, Trump’s inept mix of foreign and domestic policies will confront American workers with a “hell-broth” of powerful economic troubles not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
With massive robotic factories cranking out EVs by the millions, a fleet of dedicated ships to carry those low-cost cars to global markets, and new factories opening in Asia, Africa, Europe, and Latin America, China seems poised to conquer the global car market with models like BYD’s self-driving Seagull EV priced at only $9,000. Just as making an iPhone in America now seems almost unimaginable, by the time Trump leaves office, the US automotive industry could find itself incapable of producing a competitive EV, potentially losing access to half the world’s auto market. “I have 10,000 dealers around the world,” said Ford’s CEO Jim Farley recently. “Only 2,800 are in the US. So you do the math.” And given Trump’s costly tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (among other things), that core American manufacturing industry is likely to be in truly unsettled shape by 2029.
More broadly, the Trump administration is crippling this country’s overall economic competitiveness by cutting its scientific research and conducting a shotgun wedding between fossil fuels and the nation’s electrical grid. According to the International Renewable Energy Association, in 2024, solar power was 41% less expensive (and onshore wind 53% less) than the cheapest form of fossil fuel. When backed by cost-effective storage batteries, those alternative energies now provide the quickest, most affordable means to expand electrical infrastructure in developed and developing nations.
But by slashing EV tax credits, blocking offshore wind farms, and opening yet more federal lands for oil and natural gas drilling, President Trump is using the full powers of his presidency to derail America’s adoption of cost-competitive green energy. And keep in mind that he’s doing so at the very moment when a boom in energy-intensive data centers for Artificial Intelligence (AI) is straining the national grid, while simultaneously raising electricity costs for households and businesses. By the time he leaves office in 2029, American industry, still wedded to costly fossil fuels, could be paying double the price of foreign competitors for energy, rendering its products unaffordable, even at home.
Through a mix of ignorance and arrogance, the Trump administration is also hampering this country’s ability to conduct basic scientific research, the seedbed of its economic innovation for more than a century. Although immigrants have won 36% of the country’s Nobel Prizes in science over the past 125 years, the White House has now restricted H-1B visas for skilled immigrants and imposed a nearly 20% cut in foreign graduate students at US universities. By denying university science labs such critical student workers and slashing the nation’s budget for basic science by up to 57%, the Trump White House is liquidating the world’s most successful research industry and effectively ceding the rest of the 21st century to China.
Since the start of his second term, Donald Trump has used a seemingly random mélange of policies to mix a malevolent brew. Think of it as akin to the one that the witches in Shakespeare’s Macbeth cast into their cauldron to see the future, as they chanted: “Eye of newt and toe of frog, wool of bat and tongue of dog… For a charm of powerful trouble, like a hell-broth, boil and bubble.”
Indeed, by 2029, Trump’s inept mix of foreign and domestic policies will confront American workers with a “hell-broth” of powerful economic troubles not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s. By 2030, Trump’s tariffs will have cut US consumption by a projected 3.5% and, over the longer term, are likely to reduce average wages by 5% and GDP by 6%—a major change for an economy that has long enjoyed steady growth. With AI data centers projected to consume as much as 12% of the nation’s electricity by 2029, and Trump blocking the green energy that’s the only quick fix to meet rising demand, consumers could face an average increase of 20% in their electric bills by 2030 (and a possible 25% rise in states with data centers). While AI might raise living standards over the long-term, its unchecked expansion, as mandated by one of Trump’s executive orders, could contribute to the loss of 300 million full-time jobs globally and negatively impact two-thirds of all employment in the United States.
Worse yet, his demolition of the Biden administration’s attempt at a green energy revolution will have untold consequences for the US economy (not to say for the planet itself). As China, with its low-cost, high-efficiency EVs, conquers the global auto market by 2030 (and the larger green-energy production market as well), it will become the world’s largest economy, with exports surpassing its present record-breaking trillion-dollar mark and its currency increasingly dominant in global trade.
With the US global retreat leaving China and what’s likely to become its satellite state, Russia, dominant on the Eurasian land mass, home to 70% of the world’s population, Washington will be forced to fall even more fully back on the Western Hemisphere (where its welcome is already wearing ever thinner). With its presence certain to shrink across the planet, the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency will, as J.P. Morgan noted in a recent study, certainly “come into question.” With erratic US government policies undermining “the perceived safety and stability of the greenback” and US tariffs causing “investors to lose confidence in American assets,” there are already clear market signs of a global “de-dollarization” that will raise the cost of servicing this country’s national debt and cut into every aspect of the American economy. By 2030, the sum of those changes—compounded by a 20% increase in household electricity prices, soaring healthcare costs, and a “white collar bloodbath” as AI kills off half of all entry-level jobs—will have distinctly begun to reduce the quality of life in this country.
As Shakespeare’s witches saw the future in their cauldron’s bubbling brew and said of Macbeth, a man who would be king (whatever the cost), “Something wicked this way comes,” they also caught our Trumpian moment so many centuries later.
Reincarnation on a future overheated Earth might be an appropriate "reward" for government and private leaders responsible for obstructing the progress of green energy.
As imagined by Dante Alighieri (1265-1321) in The Divine Comedy, Hell has nine levels, with the lowest reserved for the very worst souls. Although it is no longer fashionable to believe that Hell exists, we can't prove that it doesn't. And it is generally thought that among its tortures for condemned souls are extremely high temperatures.
If the climate continues heating up we may create hellish conditions right here on an overheated Earth. Would it be appropriate for those responsible for allowing this to happen to end in an actual Hell? As the Lord High Executioner sings in The Mikado, "My object all sublime... is to make the punishment fit the crime."
Or perhaps the guilty parties could be reincarnated on the unpleasant future Earth they are helping create. Like Hell, which no one can prove does not exist, no one has ever proved that reincarnation is impossible.
So in case there is no Hell, Earth itself might take care of inflicting cosmic justice.
I imagine that Hell, if it exists, or a future overheated Earth, will have ample room for guilty members of Congress and the Supreme Court; coal, gas, and oil company executives; and the like.
Of course as a mere mortal human being, I cannot claim to be a perfect judge of my fellow mortals. But it seems to me that many current American leaders will bear heavy responsibility if we do not curb global warming in time to avoid catastrophe. I say leaders in the plural here deliberately, since no one person—not even a president—could do the damage currently being done by American policy without the help of other leaders.
I imagine that Hell, if it exists, or a future overheated Earth, will have ample room for guilty members of Congress and the Supreme Court; coal, gas, and oil company executives; and the like.
President Donald Trump began his second administration by withdrawing the US again from the Paris Agreement to fight climate change. Although "only" a symbolic action, it telegraphed the new administration's intentions to sabotage green energy.
Non-symbolic actions quickly followed. It is bad enough that the government has been canceling subsidy programs designed to hasten the day when solar and wind energy replace coal, oil, and gas.
Far worse, the administration is trying to prevent completion of major wind farms that are already largely built and in which people have invested billions of dollars. This makes no sense economically and will increase the electricity shortages already causing big increases in consumer prices.
And the administration is canceling permissions for new green projects that government agencies had already granted.
Worse still is the administration's attempt to force other countries to halt their own policies aimed at replacing dirty electricity with green electricity, using tariff rates as bargaining chips. As long as only the US slows down needed reforms, the rest of the world could at least move forward.
From a geopolitical point of view, recent US policies are making China look better and better, as it appears destined to dominate production of green energy and electric vehicles. The US continues to dominate declining industries like coal, gas, and oil—the modern equivalents of buggy whips.
Perhaps most outrageous of all (so far!) is the administration's attempt to turn off functioning satellites already in orbit that can measure carbon dioxide and methane—the chief warming agents in the atmosphere—as an "economy" measure!
Economy measure?! As "Swami Beyondananda" recently put it, "If we lose the Earth, there goes the GDP."
In the same vein, the Trump Environmental Protection Agency now proposes to stop requiring corporations to measure and report the amount of greenhouse gases they are releasing into the atmosphere.
The administration is also trying to close down its Mauna Loa installation in Hawaii and three other places measuring greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
Apparently the administration fears that all these measurements will undermine its already feeble arguments that it is safe to continue burning coal, oil, and gas to produce the power required by modern civilization.
As I noted earlier, reincarnation on a future overheated Earth might be an appropriate "reward" for government and private leaders responsible for obstructing the progress of green energy.
But from another point of view, an actual Hell might provide more justice for them.
Hell has no air conditioners.
"It's going to harm them," boasted Sen. Mike Lee, a top Trump cheerleader. "Russ Vought, the OMB director, has been dreaming about this moment... since puberty."
President Donald Trump is using the government shutdown to carry out an unprecedented attack on his enemies through more layoffs of federal workers and cuts to grants aimed at blue states.
In the Oval Office Tuesday, hours before the shutdown began, Trump told reporters that “when you shut it down, you have to do layoffs. So, we’d be laying off a lot of people that are going to be very affected, and they’re Democrats. They’re gonna be Democrats.”
In the days leading up to the shutdown, congressional Democrats attempted to force Republicans to roll back cuts to Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies—cuts that are expected to result in as many as 15 million Americans losing their health insurance while raising premiums for tens of millions more. Trump and the GOP have blamed Democrats for the shutdown, falsely claiming that theyare pushing to fund free healthcare for "illegal aliens."
However, they've struggled to make this story land with the American public. A Washington Post poll released Thursday found that 47% of US adults blame Trump and Republicans for the shutdown, while just 30% blame Democrats and 23% say they are unsure. The sample was divided roughly equally between those who voted for Trump and those who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris (D) in 2024.
In what Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) called an effort to use "taxpayer dollars to try and shift blame," the websites for numerous government agencies—including the US departments of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), as well as Justice, Agriculture, and several others—were updated with banners that blamed "Democrats" and the "Radical Left" for the shutdown.
Meanwhile, government employees, including those at the Small Business Administration (SBA) were directed to include similar partisan language in their out-of-office auto-reply emails.
Experts have told Politico that the use of taxpayer money for such explicit partisan messaging likely violates multiple ethics laws, including the Anti-Lobbying Act, which forbids the use of appropriated funds for lobbying activities designed to “support or defeat legislation pending before Congress.” It also pushes the boundaries of the Hatch Act, which requires federal programs to be used in a nonpartisan fashion.
The progressive consumer watchdog group Public Citizen said it has filed complaints against HUD and the SBA for what it said was an "obvious Hatch Act violation."
"The SBA and other agencies increasingly adopting this illegal, partisan tactic think they can get away with it because Trump has gutted any and all ethics oversight of the federal government," said Craig Holman, a government ethics expert with Public Citizen.
After being asked about Trump's promise to lay off "Democrats" at a press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance told reporters, "We are not targeting federal agencies based on politics."
But in a Truth Social post early Thursday morning Trump struck a somewhat different tone. He spoke of plans to meet with Russell Vought, the director of the White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB), "to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut. I can’t believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity."
Trump also proudly described Vought as "he of PROJECT 2025 fame," referencing his leading role in crafting the Heritage Foundation's infamous blueprint for a far-right takeover of government—a takeover carried out in part through the purging of civil servants disloyal to Trump. During the 2024 election, Trump repeatedly insisted that he had "nothing to do with" Project 2025.
Vought has already begun to unilaterally withhold congressionally appropriated dollars for projects specifically for blue cities and states.
On Wednesday, he said that $18 billion in subway and tunnel funding for New York City had been “put on hold to ensure funding is not flowing based on unconstitutional [diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI)] principles.” Not long before that, Trump had threatened to entirely cut off federal funding to the city if its voters elect the democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee and current frontrunner, as its next mayor in November.
Vought then announced Thursday that he was also stripping away another nearly $8 billion worth of funding for climate-related projects, referring to it as "Green New SCAM funding to fuel the Left's climate agenda." Vought said that the funding was being withheld exclusively from projects in states led by Democrats: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington state.
House Republicans were reportedly told by Vought on Wednesday that mass firings would also begin in "one to two" days, though he did not outline specifics about who would be fired. However, a memo Vought issued last week instructed agencies to prepare to eliminate employees “not consistent with the president’s priorities," triggering a lawsuit from federal workers' unions.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) told the press Thursday that Vought was carrying out these cuts "reluctantly" and is "not enjoying the responsibility" of deciding which programs and employees get the axe.
But in an interview on Fox News, Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), a top Trump cheerleader, was a bit more candid, proudly declaring that Trump and Vought are using the shutdown specifically to hurt Democrats.
"They're doing it deliberately. It's going to harm them," Lee said. "Because Russ Vought, the OMB director, has been dreaming about this moment, preparing for this moment, since puberty."
Rep. Mike Levin (D-Calif.) said that "Vought is pushing a scheme to turn a government shutdown into a weapon to fire career civil servants and dismantle programs Congress has already passed into law. That is not only reckless. It is flatly illegal and unconstitutional."
"Have we ever had a president work so hard to hurt the people he represents?" asked Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.). "I'm not going to be intimidated by these crooks."
Poll after poll show Americans would rather have their tax dollars spent on public services than on Pentagon contractors, and would prefer policymakers prioritize spending on healthcare, education, housing, and infrastructure—not the military.
President Trump is requesting a record-high $1.01 trillion “defense” budget for FY 2026 while gutting federal agencies and social services that actually keep the country safe – things like clean air and water protection, Medicaid, child nutrition programs, the Department of Education, green energy, and so much more.
The U.S. already spends more on the military than the next nine countries combined despite the Pentagon being the only federal agency that has never passed a federal audit. The United States government alone operates more than 90% of the world’s foreign military bases, controls more than 42% of the world’s nuclear warheads, and dominates 43% of the global arms trade.
As the world’s largest arms dealer, the U.S. sells weapons to the majority of the world’s authoritarian governments and U.S.-made weapons are routinely implicated in human rights abuses - including facilitating Israel’s genocidal assault on Palestinians in Gaza, ethnic cleansing of the occupied West Bank, and fueling the brutal proxy war in Sudan.
Half of the trillion-dollar Pentagon budget will be handed over to corporations and lobbyists who profit from producing weapons that drive political repression, endless war, and climate collapse - including billionaires like Elon Musk. The budget also includes funding and authorization for domestic use of the military to facilitate mass deportations and detentions at an unprecedented scale.
While Pentagon contractors are set to receive record-high public subsidies, too many Americans are struggling to meet their basic needs. Despite being the richest country in the world, the U.S. has the lowest education and health outcomes and highest rate of child poverty among all economically advanced nations. Wealth inequality has never been higher - and three-quarters of the country are pessimistic about their children’s financial future.
There are no militarized solutions to the challenges facing American families and communities. More war and weapons makes us all less safe, not more. Instead of a record-high budget for war profiteers, what could federal spending do for families and communities?
A $1.01 trillion dollar investment could achieve ALL of the following:
Solutions to the greatest challenges facing American families and communities are not only possible - they’re popular. A trillion dollar investment in ordinary Americans is not radical; it would effectively help prevent crime, improve security, and raise standards of living across the country. And it’s what most people actually want.
Poll after poll show Americans would rather have their tax dollars spent on public services than on Pentagon contractors, and would prefer policymakers prioritize spending on healthcare, education, housing, and infrastructure—not the military. Pentagon spending consistently ranks below other major programs in terms of importance regarding federal investment. In addition, the majority of Americans disapprove of the so-called “Department of Government Efficiency” cuts to federal agencies and programs, believing they make the country more vulnerable. And most voters do not agree with the ham-fisted approach Trump is taking on immigration.
There is still time to fight back. The President’s trillion-dollar Pentagon request so far is just that: a request. Congress ultimately has the final say in deciding how federal money is allocated. There is bipartisan support for cutting waste, fraud, and abuse within the inflated military budget and a variety of proposals from across the political spectrum outlining how this can be achieved (see here, here, and here). As the FY 2026 budget process proceeds, it will be crucial to unite and strengthen interconnected movements fighting for government accountability and a livable future for people and the planet - not corporations who profit from the division and destruction of our communities and world.
If capitalist interests continue to drive this crucial transition, which is all too likely, while global energy consumption isn’t scaled back radically, the amount of critical minerals needed to power the global future remains unfathomable.
Considered Angola’s crown jewel by many, Lobito is a colorful port city on the country’s scenic Atlantic coast where a nearly five-kilometer strip of land creates a natural harbor. Its white sand beaches, vibrant blue waters, and mild tropical climate have made Lobito a tourist destination in recent years. Yet under its shiny new facade is a history fraught with colonial violence and exploitation.
The Portuguese were the first Europeans to lay claim to Angola in the late sixteenth century. For nearly four centuries, they didn’t relent until a bloody, 27-year civil war with anticolonial guerillas (aided by the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces) and bolstered by a leftist coup in distant Lisbon, Portugal’s capital, overthrew that colonial regime in 1974.
Lobito’s port was the economic heart of Portugal’s reign in Angola, along with the meandering 1,866-kilometer Benguela Railway, which first became operational in the early 1900s. For much of the twentieth century, Lobito was the hub for exporting to Europe agricultural goods and metals mined in Africa’s Copperbelt. Today, the Copperbelt remains a resource-rich region encompassing much of the Democratic Republic of Congo and northern Zambia.
Perhaps it won’t shock you to learn that, half a century after Portugal’s colonial control of Angola ended, neocolonialism is now sinking its hooks into Lobito. Its port and the Benguela Railway, which travels along what’s known as the Lobito Corridor, have become a key nucleus of China’s and the Western world’s efforts to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources in our hot new world. If capitalist interests continue to drive this crucial transition, which is all too likely, while global energy consumption isn’t scaled back radically, the amount of critical minerals needed to power the global future remains unfathomable. The World Economic Forum estimates that three billion tons of metals will be required. The International Energy Forum estimates that to meet the global goals of radically reducing carbon emissions, we’ll also need between 35 and 194 massive copper mines by 2050.
It should come as no surprise that most of the minerals from copper to cobalt needed for that transition’s machinery (including electric batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels) are located in Latin America and Africa. Worse yet, more than half (54%) of the critical minerals needed are on or near Indigenous lands, which means the most vulnerable populations in the world are at the most significant risk of being impacted in a deeply negative fashion by future mining and related operations.
Having lagged behind that country’s investments in Africa for years, the U.S. is now looking to make up ground.
When you want to understand what the future holds for a country in the “developing” world, as economists still like to call such regions, look no further than the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “With growing demand, proceeds from critical minerals are poised to rise significantly over the next two decades,” reports the IMF. “Global revenues from the extraction of just four key minerals — copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium — are estimated to total $16 trillion over the next 25 years. Sub-Saharan Africa stands to reap over 10 percent of these accumulated revenues, which could correspond to an increase in the region’s GDP by 12 percent or more by 2050.”
Sub-Saharan Africa alone is believed to contain 30% of the world’s total critical mineral reserves. It’s estimated that the Congo is responsible for 70% of global cobalt output and approximately 50% of the globe’s reserves. In fact, the demand for cobalt, a key ingredient in most lithium-ion batteries, is rapidly increasing because of its use in everything from cell phones to electric vehicles. As for copper, Africa has two of the world’s top producers, with Zambia accounting for 70% of the continent’s output. “This transition,” adds the IMF, “if managed properly, has the potential to transform the region.” And, of course, it won’t be pretty.
While such critical minerals might be mined in rural areas of the Congo and Zambia, they must reach the international marketplace to become profitable, which makes Angola and the Lobito Corridor key to Africa’s booming mining industry.
In 2024, China committed $4.5 billion to African lithium mines alone and another $7 billion to investments in copper and cobalt mining infrastructure. In the Congo, for example, China controls 70% of the mining sector.
Having lagged behind that country’s investments in Africa for years, the U.S. is now looking to make up ground.
Zambia’s Copper Colonialism
In September 2023, on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in India, Secretary of State Antony Blinken quietly signed an agreement with Angola, Zambia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the European Union to launch the Lobito Corridor project. There wasn’t much fanfare or news coverage, but the United States had made a significant move. Almost 50 years after Portugal was forced out of Angola, the West was back, offering a $4 billion commitment and assessing the need to update the infrastructure first built by European colonizers. With a growing need for critical minerals, Western countries are now setting their sights on Africa and its green energy treasures.
“We meet at a historic moment,” President Joe Biden said as he welcomed Angolan President João Lourenço to Washington last year. Biden then called the Lobito project the “biggest U.S. rail investment in Africa ever” and affirmed the West’s interest in what the region might have to offer in the future. “America,” he added, “is all in on Africa… We’re all in with you and Angola.”
Both Africa and the U.S., Biden was careful to imply, would reap the benefits of such a coalition. Of course, that’s precisely the kind of rhetoric we can expect when Western (or Chinese) interests are intent on acquiring the resources of the Global South. If this were about oil or coal, questions and concerns would undoubtedly be raised regarding America’s regional intentions. Yet, with the fight against climate change providing cover, few are considering the geopolitical ramifications of such a position — and even fewer acknowledging the impacts of massively increased mining on the continent.
In his book Cobalt Red, Siddharth Kara exposes the bloody conditions cobalt miners in the Congo endure, many of them children laboring against their will for days on end, with little sleep and under excruciatingly abusive conditions. The dreadful story is much the same in Zambia, where copper exports account for more than 70% of the country’s total export revenue. A devastating 126-page report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) from 2011 exposed the wretchedness inside Zambia’s Chinese-owned mines: 18-hour work days, unsafe working environments, rampant anti-union activities, and fatal workplace accidents. There is little reason to believe it’s much different in the more recent Western-owned operations.
“Friends tell you that there’s a danger as they’re coming out of shift,” a miner who was injured while working for a Chinese company told HRW. “You’ll be fired if you refuse, they threaten this all the time… The main accidents are from rock falls, but you also have electrical shocks, people hit by mining trucks underground, people falling from platforms that aren’t stable… In my accident, I was in a loading box. The mine captain… didn’t put a platform. So when we were working, a rock fell down and hit my arm. It broke to the extent that the bone was coming out of the arm.”
An explosion at one mine killed 51 workers in 2005 and things have only devolved since then. Ten workers died in 2018 at an illegal copper extraction site. In 2019, three mineworkers were burned to death in an underground shaft fire and a landslide at an open-pit copper mine in Zambia killed more than 30 miners in 2023. Despite such horrors, there’s a rush to extract ever more copper in Zambia. As of 2022, five gigantic open-pit copper mines were operating in the country, and eight more underground mines were in production, many of which are to be further expanded in the years ahead. With new U.S.-backed mines in the works, Washington believes the Lobito Corridor may prove to be the missing link needed to ensure Zambian copper will end up in green energy goods consumed in the West.
AI Mining for AI Energy
The office of KoBold Metals in quaint downtown Berkeley, California, is about as far away from Zambia’s dirty mines as you can get. Yet, at KoBold’s nondescript headquarters, which sits above a row of trendy bars and restaurants, a team of tech entrepreneurs diligently work to locate the next big mine operation in Zambia using proprietary Artificial Intelligence (AI). Backed by billionaires Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, KoBold bills itself as a green Silicon Valley machine, committed to the world’s green energy transition (while turning a nice profit).
It is in KoBold’s interest, of course, to secure the energy deposits of the future because it will take an immense amount of energy to support their artificially intelligent world. A recent report by the International Energy Agency estimates that, in the near future, electricity usage by AI data centers will increase significantly. As of 2022, such data centers were already utilizing 460 terawatt hours (TWh) but are on pace to increase to 1,050 TWh by the middle of the decade. To put that in perspective, Europe’s total energy consumption in 2023 was around 2,700 TWh.
“Anyone who’s in the renewable space in the western world… is looking for copper and cobalt, which are fundamental to making electric vehicles,” Mfikeyi Makayi, chief executive of KoBold in Zambia, explained to the Financial Times in 2024. “That is going to come from this part of the world and the shortest route to take them out is Lobito.”
Makayi wasn’t beating around the bush. The critical minerals in KoBold mines won’t end up in the possession of Zambia or any other African country. They are bound for Western consumers alone. KoBold’s CEO Kurt House is also honest about his intentions: “I don’t need to be reminded again that I’m a capitalist,” he’s been known to quip.
In July 2024, House rang his company’s investors with great news: KoBold had just hit the jackpot in Zambia. Its novel AI tech had located the largest copper find in more than a decade. Once running, it could produce upwards of 300,000 tons of copper annually — or, in the language investors understand, the cash will soon flow. As of late summer 2024, one ton of copper on the international market cost more than $9,600. Of course, KoBold has gone all in, spending $2.3 billion to get the Zambian mine operable by 2030. Surely, KoBold’s investors were excited by the prospect, but not everyone was as thrilled as them.
“The value of copper that has left Zambia is in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Hold that figure in your mind, and then look around yourself in Zambia,” says Zambian economist Grieve Chelwa. “The link between resource and benefit is severed.”
Not only has Zambia relinquished the benefits of such mineral exploitation, but — consider it a guarantee — its people will be left to suffer the local mess that will result.
The Poisoned River
Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) is today the largest ore producer in Zambia, ripping out a combined two million tons of copper a year. It’s one of the nation’s largest employers, with a brutally long record of worker and environmental abuses. KCM runs Zambia’s largest open-pit mine, which stretches for seven miles. In 2019, the British-based Vedanta Resources acquired an 80% stake in KCM by covering $250 million of that company’s debt. Vedanta has deep pockets and is run by Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal, affectionately known in the mining world as “the Metal King.”
One thing should be taken for granted: You don’t become the Metal King without leaving entrails of toxic waste on your coattails. In India, Agarwal’s alumina mines have polluted the lands of the Indigenous Kondh tribes in Orissa Province. In Zambia, his copper mines have wrecked farmlands and waterways that once supplied fish and drinking water to thousands of villagers.
The Kafue River runs for more than 1,500 kilometers, making it Zambia’s longest river and now probably its most polluted as well. Going north to south, its waters flow through the Copperbelt, carrying with them cadmium, lead, and mercury from KCM’s mine. In 2019, thousands of Zambian villagers sued Vedanta, claiming its subsidiary KCM had poisoned the Kafue River and caused insurmountable damage to their lands.
The British Supreme Court then found Vedanta liable, and the company was forced to pay an undisclosed settlement, likely in the millions of dollars. Such a landmark victory for those Zambian villagers couldn’t have happened without the work of Chilekwa Mumba, who organized communities and convinced an international law firm to take up the case. Mumba grew up in the Chingola region of Zambia, where his father worked in the mines.
“[T]here was some environmental degradation going on as a result of the mining activities. As we found, there were times when the acid levels of water was so high,” explained Mumba, the 2023 African recipient of the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize. “So there were very specific complaints about stomach issues from children. Children just really wander around the villages and if they are thirsty, they don’t think about what’s happening, they’ll just get a cup and take their drink of water from the river. That’s how they live. So they’ll usually get diseases. It’s hard to quantify, but clearly the impact was there.”
Sadly enough, though, despite that important legal victory, little has changed in Zambia, where environmental regulations remain weak and nearly impossible to enforce, which leaves mining companies like KCM to regulate themselves. A 2024 Zambian legislative bill seeks to create a regulatory body to oversee mining operations, but the industry has pushed back, making it unclear if it will ever be signed into law. Even if the law does pass, it may have little real-world impact on mining practices there.
The warming climate, at least to the billionaire mine owners and their Western accomplices, will remain an afterthought, as well as a justification to exploit more of Africa’s critical minerals. Consider it a new type of colonialism, this time with a green capitalist veneer. There are just too many AI programs to run, too many tech gadgets to manufacture, and too much money to be made.
"This labor market," said one economist, "is the result of policy choices that prioritized full employment—as it turns out putting people first, works."
Friday's job report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics offered a "better than expected" picture of job growth as federal unemployment hit 4.1% and more than a quarter-million people were added to the payroll last month alone.
In what ABC News noted was "one of the last major pieces of economic data before the presidential election," the jobs report offered an indication of economic strength—a possible boon to outgoing President Joe Biden's legacy and a political advantage to Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of November 5.
"U.S. hiring surged in September," the news outlet reported, "blowing past economist expectations and rebuking concern about weakness in the labor market."
Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich responded to the new data Friday morning by pointing out that "more jobs have been created during the Biden-Harris presidency than during any single presidential term in history."
Donald Trump "doesn't often tell the truth, but he was right about this," added Reich, who quoted the GOP presidential candidate in 2004 admitting that "the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans."
More jobs have been created during the Biden-Harris presidency than during any single presidential term in history.
Trump doesn't often tell the truth, but he was right about this:
"The economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans." — Donald Trump in 2004 pic.twitter.com/32XQnqbbb1
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) October 4, 2024
"Wowza," said economist Justin Wolfers, a professor at the University of Michigan and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, in response to Friday's report.
Mentioning how payrolls grew by over 254,000 in September—"well above expectations"—and that large upward revisions were made to the August and July payroll numbers, Wolfers said the overall picture shows an "economic expansion that is motoring along."
September jobs report: US economy adds 254,000 jobs vs. 150,000 expected pic.twitter.com/fUZvzx8tuK
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) October 4, 2024
"It was 'wow' across the board, much stronger than expected," Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab, told CNBC. "The bottom line is it was a very good report. You get upward revisions and it tells you the job market continues to be healthy, and that means the economy is healthy."
Pointing to a recent analysis by her colleague Josh Bevins, Economic Policy Institute (EPI) economist Hilary Wething on Friday credited the strong performance represented by the new jobs numbers as the result of specific policies by the administration.
"You might think we just magically stumbled upon a consistently strong labor market—but no, this labor market is the result of policy choices that prioritized full employment—as it turns out putting people first, works," said Wething.
Elise Gould, a senior economist at EPI, also championed the "strong" figures:
In a blog post on Thursday, ahead of Friday's report—Gould detailed the strength of the labor market, despite the real pain that many workers and families still feel in their day to day lives:
It is indisputable that the U.S. labor market is strong. The share of the population ages 25–54 with a job is at a 23-year high, median household incomes rose 4.0% last year, and real wage growth over the last four years has been broad-based and strong. The economy has not only regained the nearly 22 million jobs lost in the pandemic recession, but also added another 6.5 million.
Are some folks still having a hard time? Absolutely. Even when the unemployment rate is low, there are still sidelined workers, and it remains difficult for many families to make ends meet on wages that are still too low. Unfortunately, that's a long-term phenomenon stemming from a too-stingy U.S. welfare state, rising inequality, and the legacy of anemic wage growth during past economic recoveries. But when comparing the labor market with four years ago (during the pandemic recession) or even before the pandemic began, the answer is clear: More workers have jobs and wages are beating inflation by solid margins.
With the Federal Reserve easing interest rates, in part based based on the strength of the hiring trends alongside lower inflation, Friday's jobs report was welcomed as a show of strength for progressives who have argued since the Covid-19 pandemic that pro-worker policies—as opposed to endless fealty to the demands of corporate powers and Wall Street—alongside public investments can work together to create strong economic foundations for the nation.
"Today's strong jobs report confirms once again that we never had to throw millions of people out of work to tame inflation," said Kitty Richards, a senior fellow with the left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative.
"Thanks to big investments in [pandemic] relief, manufacturing, and green energy, inflation is low, and the economy is still delivering for workers," Richards said. "The pundits who said we couldn't have low unemployment, growing wages, and stable prices at the same time have been proven wrong."
The promising energy source is not a silver bullet for the climate crisis and has dangers all its own.
I awoke on December 13th to news about what could be the most significant scientific breakthrough since the Food and Drug Administration authorized the first Covid vaccine for emergency use two years ago. This time, however, the achievement had nothing to do with that ongoing public health crisis. Instead, as the New York Times and CNN alerted me that morning, at stake was a new technology that could potentially solve the worst dilemma humanity faces: climate change and the desperate overheating of our planet. Net-energy-gain fusion, a long-sought-after panacea for all that’s wrong with traditional nuclear-fission energy (read: accidents, radioactive waste), had finally been achieved at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
“This is such a wonderful example of a possibility realized, a scientific milestone achieved, and a road ahead to the possibilities for clean energy,” exclaimed White House science adviser Arati Prabhakar.
The New York Times was quick to follow Prabhakar’s lead, boasting that fusion is an “energy source devoid of the pollution and greenhouse gasses caused by the burning of fossil fuels.” Even Fox News, not exactly at the top of anyone’s list of places focused on climate change, jumped on the bandwagon, declaring fusion “a technology that has the potential to accelerate the planet’s shift away from fossil fuels and produce nearly limitless, carbon-free energy.”
Sadly, fusion won’t save the Arctic from melting, but if we don’t put a stop to it, that breakthrough technology could someday melt us all.
All in all, the reviews for fusion were positively glowing and it seemed to make instant sense. After all, what could possibly be wrong with something that might end our reliance on fossil fuels, even as it reduced the risks posed by our aging nuclear industry? The message, repeated again and again in the days that followed: this was a genuine global-warming game-changer.
After all, in the fusion process, no atoms have to be split to create heat. Gigantic lasers are used, not uranium, so there’s no toxic mining involved, nor do thousands of gallons of cold water have to be pumped in to cool overheated reactors, nor will there be radioactive waste byproducts lasting hundreds of thousands of years. And not a risk of a nuclear meltdown in sight! Fusion, so the cheery news went, is safe, effective, and efficient!
Or is it?
The Big Catch
On a very basic level, fusion is the stuff of stars. Within the Earth’s sun, hydrogen combines with helium to create heat in the form of sunlight. Inside the walls of the Livermore Lab, this natural process was imitated by blasting 192 gigantic lasers into a tube the size of a baby’s toe. Inside that cylinder sat a “hydrogen-encased diamond.” When the laser shot through the small hole, it destroyed that diamond quicker than the blink of an eye. In doing so, it created a bunch of invisible x-rays that compressed a small pellet of deuterium and tritium, which scientists refer to as “heavy hydrogen.”
“In a brief moment lasting less than 100 trillionths of a second, 2.05 megajoules of energy — roughly the equivalent of a pound of TNT — bombarded the hydrogen pellet,” explained New York Times reporter Kenneth Chang. “Out flowed a flood of neutron particles — the product of fusion — which carried about 3 megajoules of energy, a factor of 1.5 in energy gain.”
As with so many breakthroughs, there was a catch. First, 3 megajoules isn’t much energy. After all, it takes 360,000 megajoules to create 300 hours of light from a single 100-watt light bulb. So, Livermore’s fusion development isn’t going to electrify a single home, let alone a million homes, anytime soon. And there was another nagging issue with this little fusion creation as well: it took 300 megajoules to power up those 192 lasers. Simply put, at the moment, they require 100 times more energy to charge than the energy they ended up producing.
“The reality is that fusion energy will not be viable at scale anytime within the next decade, a time frame over which carbon emissions must be reduced by 50% to avoid catastrophic warming of more than 1.5°C,” says climate expert Michael Mann, a professor of earth and environmental science at the University of Pennsylvania. “That task will only be achievable through the scaling up of existing clean energy — renewable sources such as wind and solar — along with energy storage capability and efficiency and conservation measures.”
Tritium Trials and Tribulations
The secretive and heavily secured National Ignition Facility where that test took place is the size of a sprawling sports arena. It could, in fact, hold three football fields. Which makes me wonder: how much space would be needed to do fusion on a commercial scale? No good answer is yet available. Then there’s the trouble with that isotope tritium needed to help along the fusion reaction. It’s not easy to come by and costs about as much as diamonds, around $30,000 per gram. Right now, even some of the bigwigs at the Department of Defense are worried that we’re running out of usable tritium.
“Fusion advocates often boast that the fuel for their reactors will be cheap and plentiful. That is certainly true for deuterium,” writes Daniel Clery in Science. “Roughly one in every 5,000 hydrogen atoms in the oceans is deuterium, and it sells for about $13 per gram. But tritium, with a half-life of 12.3 years, exists naturally only in trace amounts in the upper atmosphere, the product of cosmic ray bombardment.”
Fusion boosters brush this unwelcome fact aside, pointing out that “tritium breeding” — a process in which tritium is endlessly produced in a loop-like fashion — is entirely possible in a fully operating fusion reactor. In theory, this may seem plausible, but you need a bunch of tritium to jumpstart the initial chain reaction and doubt abounds that there’s enough of it out there to begin with. On top of that, the reactors themselves will have to be lined with a lot of lithium, itself an expensive chemical element at $71 a kilogram (copper, by contrast, is around $9.44 a kilogram), to allow the process to work correctly.
Then there’s also a commonly repeated misstatement that fusion doesn’t create significant radioactive waste, a haunting reality for the world’s current fleet of nuclear plants. True, plutonium, which can be used as fuel in atomic weapons, isn’t a natural byproduct of fusion, but tritium is the radioactive form of hydrogen. Its little isotopes are great at permeating metals and finding ways to escape tight enclosures. Obviously, this will pose a significant problem for those who want to continuously breed tritium in a fusion reactor. It also presents a concern for people worried about radioactivity making its way out of such facilities and into the environment.
“Cancer is the main risk from humans ingesting tritium. When tritium decays it spits out a low-energy electron (roughly 18,000 electron volts) that escapes and slams into DNA, a ribosome, or some other biologically important molecule,” David Biello explains in Scientific American. “And, unlike other radionuclides, tritium is usually part of water, so it ends up in all parts of the body and therefore can, in theory, promote any kind of cancer. But that also helps reduce the risk: any tritiated water is typically excreted in less than a month.”
If that sounds problematic, that’s because it is. This country’s above-ground atomic bomb testing in the 1950s and 1960s was responsible for most of the man-made tritium that’s lingering in the environment. And it will be at least 2046, 84 years after the last American atmospheric nuclear detonation in Nevada, before tritium there will no longer pose a problem for the area.
Of course, tritium also escapes from our existing nuclear reactors and is routinely found near such facilities where it occurs “naturally” during the fission process. In fact, after Illinois farmers discovered their wells had been contaminated by the nearby Braidwood nuclear plant, they successfully sued the site’s operator Exelon, which, in 2005, was caught discharging 6.2 million gallons of tritium-laden water into the soil.
In the United States, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) allows the industry to monitor for tritium releases at nuclear sites; the industry is politely asked to alert the NRC in a “timely manner” if tritium is either intentionally or accidentally released. But a June 2011 report issued by the Government Accountability Office cast doubt on the NRC’s archaic system for assessing tritium discharges, suggesting that it’s anything but effective. (“Absent such an assessment, we continue to believe that NRC has no assurance that the Groundwater Protection Initiative will lead to prompt detection of underground piping system leaks as nuclear power plants age.”)
Consider all of this a way of saying that, if the NRC isn’t doing an adequate job of monitoring tritium leaks already occurring with regularity at the country’s nuclear plants, how the heck will it do a better job of tracking the stuff at fusion plants in the future? And as I suggest in my new book, Atomic Days: The Untold Story of the Most Toxic Place in America, the NRC is plain awful at just about everything it does.
Instruments of Death
All of that got me wondering: if tritium, vital for the fusion process, is radioactive, and if they aren’t going to be operating those lasers in time to put the brakes on climate change, what’s really going on here?
Maybe some clues lie (as is so often the case) in history. The initial idea for a fusion reaction was proposed by English physicist Arthur Eddington in 1920. More than 30 years later, on November 1, 1952, the first full-scale U.S. test of a thermonuclear device, “Operation Ivy,” took place in the Marshall Islands in the Pacific Ocean. It yielded a mushroom-cloud explosion from a fusion reaction equivalent in its power to 10.4 Megatons of TNT. That was 450 times more powerful than the atomic bomb the U.S. had dropped on the Japanese city of Nagasaki only seven years earlier to end World War II. It created an underwater crater 6,240 feet wide and 164 feet deep.
“The Shot, as witnessed aboard the various vessels at sea, is not easily described,” noted a military report on that nuclear experiment. “Accompanied by a brilliant light, the heat wave was felt immediately at distances of thirty to thirty-five miles. The tremendous fireball, appearing on the horizon like the sun when half-risen, quickly expanded after a momentary hover time.”
Nicknamed “Ivy Mike,” the bomb was a Teller-Ulam thermonuclear device, named after its creators Edward Teller and Stanislaw Ulam. It was also the United States’ first full-scale hydrogen bomb, an altogether different beast than the two awful nukes dropped on Japan in August 1945. Those bombs utilized fission in their cores to create massive explosions. But Ivy Mike gave a little insight into what was still possible for future weapons of annihilation.
The details of how the Teller-Ulam device works are still classified, but historian of science Alex Wellerstein explained the concept well in the New Yorker:
“The basic idea is, as far as we know, as follows. Take a fission weapon — call it the primary. Take a capsule of fusionable material, cover it with depleted uranium, and call it the secondary. Take both the primary and the secondary and put them inside a radiation case — a box made of very heavy materials. When the primary detonates, radiation flows out of it, filling the case with X rays. This process, which is known as radiation implosion, will, through one mechanism or another… compress the secondary to very high densities, inaugurating fusion reactions on a large scale. These fusion reactions will, in turn, let off neutrons of such a high energy that they can make the normally inert depleted uranium of the secondary’s casing undergo fission.”
Got it? Ivy Mike was, in fact, a fission explosion that initiated a fusion reaction. But ultimately, the science of how those instruments of death work isn’t all that important. The takeaway here is that, since first tried out in that monstrous Marshall Islands explosion, fusion has been intended as a tool of war. And sadly, so it remains, despite all the publicity about its possible use some distant day in relation to climate change. In truth, any fusion breakthroughs are potentially of critical importance not as a remedy for our warming climate but for a future apocalyptic world of war. Despite all the fantastic media publicity, that’s how the U.S. government has always seen it and that’s why the latest fusion test to create “energy” was executed in the utmost secrecy at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. One thing should be taken for granted: the American government is interested not in using fusion technology to power the energy grid, but in using it to further strengthen this country’s already massive arsenal of atomic weapons.
Consider it an irony, under the circumstances, but in its announcement about the success at Livermore — though this obviously wasn’t what made the headlines — the Department of Energy didn’t skirt around the issue of gains for future atomic weaponry. Jill Hruby, the department’s undersecretary for nuclear security, admitted that, in achieving a fusion ignition, researchers had “opened a new chapter in NNSA’s science-based Stockpile Stewardship Program.” (NNSA stands for the National Nuclear Security Administration.) That “chapter” Hruby was bragging about has a lot more to do with “modernizing” the country’s nuclear weapons capabilities than with using laser fusion to end our reliance on fossil fuels.
“Had we not pursued the hydrogen bomb,” Edward Teller once said, “there is a very real threat that we would now all be speaking Russian. I have no regrets.” Some attitudes die hard.
Buried deep in the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s website, the government comes clean about what these fusion experiments at the $3.5 billion National Ignition Facility (NIF) are really all about:
“NIF’s high energy density and inertial confinement fusion experiments, coupled with the increasingly sophisticated simulations available from some of the world’s most powerful supercomputers, increase our understanding of weapon physics, including the properties and survivability of weapons-relevant materials… The high rigor and multidisciplinary nature of NIF experiments play a key role in attracting, training, testing, and retaining new generations of skilled stockpile stewards who will continue the mission to protect America into the future.”
Yes, despite all the media attention to climate change, this is a rare yet intentional admission, surely meant to frighten officials in China and Russia. It leaves little doubt about what this fusion breakthrough means. It’s not about creating future clean energy and never has been. It’s about “protecting” the world’s greatest capitalist superpower. Competitors beware.
Sadly, fusion won’t save the Arctic from melting, but if we don’t put a stop to it, that breakthrough technology could someday melt us all.
I believe in their need to breathe, their need for a stable climate, and their need to be unpoisoned.
This is an essay about the long-standing evidence that gas stoves harm children and why so many of us persist in liking them anyway. But it begins with pesticides.
When wildlife biologist Rachel Carson wrote about the dangers of DDT and 18 other synthetic pesticides in her 1962 book, Silent Spring, the chemicals she had in her sights were, commercially speaking, less than two decades old.
Organochlorine pesticides had been developed under wartime secrecy for purposes that included halting epidemics of typhus and malaria among our troops in both European and Pacific theaters of operation. Also included: a plan to destroy the Japanese rice crop. (We dropped the atom bomb instead; Agent Orange would have to wait until Vietnam.)
After World War II ended, these chemicals received a heroes’ welcome—orchestrated by a chemical industry-sponsored marketing campaign—and were deployed commercially in civilian life, forever changing the way food was grown, kitchens disinfected, children de-loused, and suburban lawns freed from crabgrass.
"The gas stove is a child of the natural gas industry, which lost out to light bulbs. The electric coil stove is an offspring of the utility companies, which wanted to sell more coal-generated power. To hell with them."
The rapid transformation of chemical pesticides from obscure weapons of war to ubiquitous household helpers was not an easy lift for advertisers. On the one hand, DDT needed to be marketed as a ruthless assassin, far more effective at killing insect pests than any earlier concoction. On the other hand, since it was going to be stored in the kitchen pantry and sprayed on baby blankets, DDT needed to be seen as a harmless pal.
Thus, in one vintage magazine ad, an aproned housewife in a pith helmet and stiletto heels aims a spray gun at two cockroaches on her kitchen counter. The caption reads, “Super Ammunition for the Continued Battle on the Home Front.”
In another, the aproned woman appears in a chorus line of dancing farm produce singing “DDT is good for me!”

In deconstructing the myth of the deadly-yet-benign chemicals known as organochlorine pesticides, Carson’s first task was to remind to her readers that dangerous things, when they become popular enough, can assume what she called “the harmless aspect of the familiar” simply by virtue of appearing everywhere.
By the time she published the book, a full-on backlash against the evidence she’d compiled was underway with chemical industry trade organizations speaking in the voice of science. They dressed up propaganda as objective reports. They issued statements under the banners of scientific societies to which they donated as “sustaining members.” They sent their talking points to physicians who might well be receiving questions about the harms of pesticides from concerned patients. In her many public speeches, Carson called them all out.
***
Gas stoves were first developed commercially in the 1880s. Gas utilities did the marketing because, as energy historian Joshua Lappen explained to me in an email, “their customers were abandoning gas light for electric light. They popularized gas stoves as a way of creating a new retail business as their original business began to fail.”
Unlike chemical pesticides, gas stoves drove the slow road to popularity, with consumer acceptance extending only as far as the natural gas distribution system itself. In the 1930s, keen to further expand that infrastructure, the fossil fuel industry, and, most notably, the American Gas Association, began a hearts-and-minds campaign to promote gas stoves.
As documented by environmental journalist Rebecca Leber, the industry embraced “natural gas” as the name of its fuel and coined the advertising jingle “Now we’re cooking with gas!” That slogan was then placed in the mouths of cartoon characters (Daffy Duck) and comedians (Bob Hope, Jack Benny) and entered the public lexicon, becoming a metaphor for making progress.
By the 1950s, Bing Crosby was hawking gas stoves. So was film star Marlena Dietrich and Broadway actress Julia Meade, who, in addition to appearing in ads for stoves also appeared in the CBS drama series, Playhouse 90, which was sponsored by “your Gas company and the Gas industry. See local listings for time and station.” The pitch was modernity and sophistication. Gas stoves, Hollywood celebrities assured us, were clean, fast, precise, automatic, silent, and dependable, with “no hangover heat.”

Still, despite all the star power, the task of convincing the American public to actualize warm and fuzzy feelings about pipeline-dependent stoves fueled by explosive vapors was a heavy lift.
One drag force on the gas stove was growing competition from the electric stove, which also came on the market in the 1880s, and, by the 1930s was being heavily promoted by a rival fossil fuel behemoth: the electric utilities (mostly burning coal) which sought to create consumer demand for electric power.
As recently as the 1970s, fewer than one in every three new homes in the United States was equipped with a stove that ran on gas. In the mid-20th century, it was the electric stove, not the gas stove, that was considered a status symbol and the sine qua non of cooking technology.
In the 1980s, the gas industry redoubled its efforts to sell the public on the idea that gas cooking was the superior option and gas stoves a coveted status symbol. As Lappen told me, this is when the American preference for gas cooking began to solidify and only then because of two major changes in how stoves were advertised:
For decades, electric and gas stoves had both been marketed aggressively, using competing celebrity campaigns to fight for market share. After the energy crises of the 1970s, though, many electric utilities ended their demand-creation programs and devoted their advertising budgets to encouraging electricity conservation. Gas utilities, on the other hand, took advantage of new federal subsidies and launched a major gas stove advertising campaign.
By 2019, gas stoves were ascendent, appearing in more than 35 percent of U.S. households with gas stove prevalence in three states—California, New York, and Illinois—approaching 70 percent.
However, also by 2019 the gas industry was facing serious headwinds from municipal efforts, rooted in climate concerns, that sought to phase out natural gas from buildings altogether and embrace electrification mandates as part of the energy transition to renewables. At this writing, nearly 100 cities across North America—as well as Washington state and California—are drafting or have already passed policies to electrify new and existing buildings and end the practice of burning fossil fuels inside of them. (Concerned Health Professionals of New York, a program of SEHN, is supporting the effort to phase in code requirements that would ban gas hook-ups for new buildings throughout New York State.)
The gas industry has responded to the momentum of the decarbonization movement in two ways. The first is with political power—by, for example, pressuring state legislatures to enact bills that would prevent cities from passing clean energy building codes. The second, as always, is with propaganda to drive the message that burning a fossil fuel over an open flame inside your home is safe and, indeed, when it comes to cooking dinner, irreplaceable.
It’s hard to overstate the stakes here. As noted by Aaron Regunberg in the Harvard Environmental Law Review,
While momentum around building electrification is growing in localities across the country, the gas industry is deploying preemption policies to block these decarbonization efforts, aided by a consumer choice message that disproportionately focuses on gas stoves.
Regunberg notes that even though gas stoves represent a vanishingly small fraction (just three percent) of residential natural gas sales for the industry, they are the most hallowed of all household appliances and thus remain central to the industry’s strategy to entrench ever more gas infrastructure and keep the fossil fuel party going. A gas stove in a new home is the camel’s nose under the tent:
Unlike furnaces or water boilers, consumers see their stoves every time they enter their kitchens; they use them every day to cook their meals. It makes sense, then, that marketing campaigns would have an easier time persuading consumers to feel an emotional connection to their stove than to other fossil gas appliances. But all gas comes into a home or building through the same pipe, so when a consumer invests in a gas hookup for a stove, it makes it much more likely that gas-powered space and water heating—the industry’s real income-generators—will follow.
In other words, the burner tip of a gas stove—the literal terminus of a pipeline that begins at a fracking well—serves as the anchor for new fossil fuel-dependent building construction. The continued desirability of a clicking blue flame in the kitchen helps guarantee the whoosh of a gas furnace kicking on in the basement—and the persistence of a gas distribution pipeline system snaking under the sidewalks of the whole neighborhood.
The method for manufacturing that desirability has shifted over time, however. Notably, nearly a century after “now we’re cooking with gas,” the industry propaganda no longer promises progress and sophistication but instead, fully embraces the nostalgia and primal romance of the open flame.
“I think playing with fire, working with fire, having that live ammunition there at the pan, it’s just absolutely priceless and essential,” says Chef Justin Beckett about gas stoves.
Beckett is a gas industry evangelist. Where does this quote appear? On the website #CookingWithGas, which is hosted by the American Gas Association. Relatedly, the Blue Flame Alliance—whose members includes natural gas providers, including SoCalGas, and makers of gas stoves, including Vulcan—promotes Beckett’s restaurant in Phoenix.
One of Blue Flame Alliance’s stated goals is to “address market issues that can result in the reduction of gas load including the threat of electrification and environmental concerns.” [Emphasis added.]
As documented in a 2020 investigation by Rebecca Leber, today’s gas stove spokespeople include not only platformed culinary stars but Instagram influencers. Between 2018 and 2020, the gas industry paid social media and wellness personalities to distribute more than 100 sponsored posts extolling the virtues of gas stoves. In her 2021 follow-up investigation, Leber documented other tactics, including paid influencers who spread pro-gas, anti-electrification messages by microtargeting individuals on the hyperlocal social networking platform Nextdoor.
Like the Eisenhower-era, cartoon housewives hawking DDT in their cartoon kitchens, today’s gas mavens don’t ever mention that the product they are pushing is poisoning the people who inhabit the kitchen. Just because gas stoves are familiar, Rachel Carson might remind us, doesn’t mean they aren’t harmful.
***
The yellow-brown haze that hangs over cities, visible from airplanes, is nitrogen dioxide. It’s created in a two-part process whenever fossil fuels are burned. In the high heat generated by the combustion process itself, nitrogen and oxygen in the air combine to form nitrogen oxide, which then reacts with other chemicals in the air to form the corrosive gas, nitrogen dioxide. This chemical reaction happens in the smokestacks of coal-burning power plants. It happens in the tailpipes of cars and trucks. It happens in the air above the gas burners of kitchen stoves.
Whenever fossil fuels are ignited—coal, oil, or natural gas—nitrogen dioxide is made.
Nitrogen dioxide molecules have a couple of properties that make them problematic for us. The first is that they are not very water soluble. This means that when we inhale them, they bypass the mucus membranes of our nose and throat, quickly travelling all the way to the terminal bronchioles of our lungs, entering our spongy alveoli where oxygen and carbon dioxide are swapped for each other. Because nitrogen dioxide doesn’t cause inflammation or irritation to our upper respiratory tracts, those exposed may not sense the danger.
The harm happens below. Highly reactive and quickly converting to nitric acid, nitrogen dioxide molecules cause inflammation and acute injury to the cells lining our lungs. They also disable the immune cells that inhabit this tissue, leaving us more vulnerable to respiratory pathogens, such as influenza viruses, and increasing our susceptibility to infection. They also trigger bronchial spasms and wheezing. They make asthma attacks worse, and they have the power to cause asthma in children. They also exacerbate cardiovascular illness among people with heart disease.
The air inside homes with gas stoves have average concentrations of nitrogen dioxide that are 50 to 400 percent higher than the air inside homes with electric stoves. Indeed, indoor air pollution from gas stoves can easily exceed levels that would be considered illegal outdoors (as, for example, along high-traffic roadways) where concentrations are regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA does not regulate gas stoves or any other sources of indoor pollution.
***
The data linking nitrogen dioxide exposure from gas stoves to health harms in children goes back decades.
By 1977, for example, we already knew that English and Scottish children living in homes with gas stoves for cooking had more frequent coughs, chest colds, and bronchitis. The authors of this study, published 46 years ago, posited that exposure to nitrogen dioxide was the likely cause. By 1991, this trend was replicated in other studies and quantified. Researchers showed that the risk of respiratory infections in children exposed to long-term, elevated levels of nitrogen dioxide—comparable to the amounts emitted by gas stove—jumps by 20 percent. By 1994, all studies of nitrogen dioxide exposure and respiratory illnesses in children showed positive trends.
By 1997, the asthma connection was coming into focus with the demonstration that wheezing and asthma attacks were more common in children living in homes with gas stoves. By 2001, a cross-sectional study had shown that use of a gas stove or gas oven for home heating was a main risk factor for asthma in U.S. children under age six. By 2008, researchers had demonstrated that inner-city Baltimore preschoolers living in homes with gas stoves were both breathing higher levels of nitrogen dioxides and also suffering increased frequency of asthma symptoms.
By 2013, the link between gas stoves and childhood asthma was quantified: a meta-analysis published in the International Journal of Epidemiology showed that children living in a home with gas cooking have a 42 percent increased risk of having current asthma and a 24 percent increased risk of developing asthma sometime during their lifespan.
(The above is a small sample of a much larger body of work. For a comprehensive compendium of the many decades of studies documenting the health effects from gas stove pollution, with 135 footnotes, see this 2020 report.)
In the last two years, the mounting concerns about gas stoves have expanded further. By 2022, it was clear that the problem goes beyond filling up indoor air with combustion byproducts. A Harvard-led study showed that natural gas collected from gas stoves in the Boston area contained volatile vapors, such as benzene, a carcinogen linked to childhood leukemia and for which there is no safe level of exposure.
Meanwhile, a Stanford-led study showed that gas stoves routinely leak unburned natural gas, emitting 0.8–1.3 percent of the gas they use, even when they are turned off. Indeed, more than three-quarters of the leaks happen when the stove is not being used. This means that methane plumes, and the benzene that travels with them, are continuously wafting into your kitchen airspace even if you are living on take-out and microwave popcorn. It also means that the annual methane emissions from all gas stoves in U.S. homes have a climate impact roughly on par with the emissions from 500,000 cars.
2022 was also the year that gas stoves caught the attention of public agencies and health organizations. The American Medical Association (AMA), the nation’s largest medical society, released a resolution recognizing that cooking with a gas stove increases both household air pollution and the risk of childhood asthma. The AMA announced its support for programs to aid the transition from gas to electric stoves.
Then, the American Public Health Association (APHA) followed suit and became the first national public health organization to make a statement on gas stoves. The APHA policy statement calls on the public health community to advocate for increased awareness of indoor air pollution from gas stoves and promotes several strategies to improve health outcomes and equity.
At the same time, the National Center for Healthy Housing conducted its own study, finding that while mechanical ventilation systems did significantly reduce other types of indoor air pollution, they did not significantly lower nitrogen dioxide levels, “which primarily come from gas stoves, countering the misconception that opening windows or increasing ventilation is enough to address the health impacts of these appliances.”
***
And then came the bombshell study in January 2023.
An international team of epidemiologists and researchers including by Brady Seals at RMI (founded as the Rocky Mountain Institute) in Boulder, Colorado, quantified the population-level implications of cooking with gas. Drawing on data from the 2019 American Housing Survey as well as earlier studies that had calculated the relative risks of gas stove-induced asthma, the team found that 12.7 percent of current childhood asthma in the United States was attributable to gas stoves.
In other words, 647,700 kids. This is similar to the risk of having asthma from living with a smoker.
Further, some of the most densely populated states had numbers even higher than the national average. In Illinois, 21.1 percent of childhood asthma cases were associated with gas stoves. In California, 20.1 percent. In New York, 18.8 percent. The results were shocking.
Published on December 21, 2022 in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, the study initially received no public attention. On January 2, I and other members of Concerned Health Professionals of New York were contacted by one of the study’s authors and her communications team to help serve as subject matter experts for reporters and to help explain the significance of their findings on social media as they shared the study results with the press on January 4, 2023.
We happily agreed, and I fully expected to play a familiar role: calling the public’s attention to an alarming environmental health story that would likely be largely overlooked by the mainstream media. That’s not what happened.
The study received modest coverage in the first few days, and then, on January 9, Bloomberg ran a story under the headline “US Safety Agency to Consider Ban on Gas Stoves Amid Health Fears,” quoting the Consumer Product Safety Commission’s Richard Trumka, Jr.: “This is a hidden hazard. Any option is on the table. Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.” Not clearly articulated in this reporting was the fact that any new regulations would affect only new stoves. And that’s the moment when gas stoves entered the culture wars.
A full week of ever-expanding 24/7 media coverage followed, prompting a conservative backlash that saw an opportunity to slam the White House for regulatory overreach, and that backlash included false claims that the federal government was coming to take your stove. And suddenly, kitchen stoves entered the same cultural space occupied by AK-47s and gender-segregated bathrooms.
***
The 2022 National Center for Healthy Housing study concluded with a recommendation: “Based on these findings, the study recommends that builders and owners install continuous mechanical ventilation systems in all homes, while eventually phasing out gas stoves altogether…. All property owners should replace gas stoves with electric.
I am a property owner who replaced my gas stove with electric. Way back in 2004.

At the time, I was the mother of two small children, one of whom suffered greatly from cough-variant asthma, croup, and repeated bouts of pneumonia. What led me to my decision was a newly purchased carbon monoxide detector installed inside my newly purchased fixer-upper house.
It kept going off.
The fire department ran some tests and identified the gas stove in the kitchen as the source of the problem. I was told that it was emitting quite a lot of carbon monoxide.
So, I begrudgingly borrowed more money and swapped out the old gas stove with a cheap electric model. In 2004, I felt unlucky about my stove situation. Now I feel like my kids may have dodged a bullet. Nevertheless, reading the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health study two decades later is emotionally devastating.
"The study comes on the heels of 50 years of health research,” author Brady Seals told me in an email. “It helps us put the risk of gas cooking in perspective. For too long now, we've been mistakenly thinking that the health costs of our gas stove habit is zero, but that could not be further from the reality. Our findings show that 12.7 percent of childhood asthma could be theoretically prevented without gas stoves.”
Unlike DDT, which was banned for domestic use in 1972, ten years after its unfixable dangers were exposed, gas stoves have, until January 2023, largely been talked about as a matter of consumer choice. In spite of a half century of documented health harms to children from gas stoves, no policy action was ever taken, no regulations ever promulgated, no precautionary principle ever embraced. Any health advice issued so far has mostly been aimed at individual homeowners—at parents like me, the mom with the mortgage and the construction loan and the two-year-old who sometimes struggled to breathe.
***
There are two possible ways to end this essay and they both mirror the double ending that Rachel Carson provided for Silent Spring. One is to make the case for an alternative technology. And the other is to focus on human rights. These dual conclusions are not—for Carson or for me—independent of each other.
Carson closed Silent Spring by urging a shift from away pest control practices dependent on repurposing indiscriminate weapons of war to technologies more imaginative and intentional.
Namely, she urged, replace chemical solutions with biological ones. Recruit the natural enemies of pests, including fungus and bacteria, to serve as substitutes for campaigns of mass poisoning, which are doomed to failure and always bring with them untended consequences, including harm to public health.
The consequences of chemical pesticide dependency, she emphasized, injure future generations disproportionally. As such, they represent ethical failings.
Technological choices are moral choices.
So, here is the place where I say, behold the induction stove, which, by intention and engineering, is a clean, efficient way to cook food, using magnets to heat pots and pans as quickly and precisely as gas stoves while providing much more control and drawing much less electricity from the grid than pokey old electric coil stoves. And because they heat only the cooking pot and not the air around it, you stay cool under your apron.
Why should we keep cooking dinner on primitive technologies that were developed and hyped by rival fossil fuel industries locked in a hundred-years-war to capture bigger market shares? The gas stove is a child of the natural gas industry, which lost out to light bulbs. The electric coil stove is an offspring of the utility companies, which wanted to sell more coal-generated power. To hell with them.
Meanwhile, induction stoves are elegant, reasonably priced, designed with culinary delight in mind, and don’t smog up your air space like an idling car. Further, provisions within the Inflation Reduction Act offer rebates and tax credits for induction stoves that will soon bring their price tag down further. But the promotion of induction technology is not a morally neutral argument, and I want to be very careful here.
Stoves are an indoor environmental justice issue, but in a highly complicated way. Gas stoves are clearly linked to asthma in children, and asthma is a profoundly unequal disease. The burden of asthma falls far more heavily on children of low-income families and children of color, with Black children nearly three times more likely to have asthma than white children.
Lower-income households also have smaller kitchens to further concentrate the fumes, and they are more likely to lack range hoods and ventilation systems, especially in rental properties.
Healthcare costs of stove-induced asthma also fall disproportionally on impoverished families.
The average annual medical costs required to care for one child with asthma range from $3,076 to $13,612. This price tag does not include lost workdays and lost income for their wage-earning parents. Inclusive of inhalers and ER visits, gas stoves are mighty expensive.
But consider this: low-income families, who are more likely to live in drafty, substandard housing, more often use their stoves and ovens as supplemental forms of heat in the winter. And a gas stove can cook food and boil water during storm-related outages. Which can happen more often and for longer periods in non-white and low-income urban neighborhoods even as power is more quickly restored in white, more affluent communities. (See Buffalo, New York, Christmas Blizzard, 2022.)
These are not trivial matters.
Also not trivial: many non-Western cuisines rely on high heat and open flames for preparing dishes and creating flavors that are signatures of the culture and foundational to heritage and identity. Induction stoves can deliver high heat almost instantaneously but do not transmit it unless the cooking pot is directly in contact with the surface. In an induction world, what happens to Chinese stir-frying? Korean barbeque? Round-bottomed woks?
These are highly contested issues. The California Restaurant Association is currently suing the city of Berkeley in an attempt to block its phaseout of gas hook-ups in new construction. It argues that, without natural gas, certain ethnic dishes will disappear from menus.
Can this be right? Are certain cuisines—whether Asian, Indian, or Latin American—entirely and unalterably dependent on a non-renewable fuel that is mostly derived from fracking and rapidly destroying the climate system?
I am trying to listen hard. Are those voices praising gas stoves in the name of culinary justice speaking in good faith? Or are they paid influencers, perpetuating a carefully curated myth? Consider that restaurants are central to the gas industry’s campaign against gas hook-up bans in new buildings. Consider that Will Morris, who works for SoCalGas, sits on the board of advisors for the Los Angeles Trade-Technical College culinary program, which trains hundreds of chefs.
And I’m listening to Detroit-based Tik Tok star, Chef Jon Kung, who touts the superiority of induction stoves for wok-based cooking. In an interview with Rebecca Leber, Kung disputes the notion that gas stoves are irreplaceable to restaurant kitchens: “Any argument or reluctance to adopt induction seems to come from a refusal to change and possibly an old toxic masculine perspective, where it’s, ‘Oh, I want to cook with fire, fire is part of our job.’”
Why I Cook With Inductionyoutu.be
In the end, I stand with the kids. Their need to breathe. Their need for a stable climate. Their need to be unpoisoned. So, let’s give Rachel Carson the last word on human rights, as she applied it to DDT but could just as well apply to the nitrogen dioxide-emitting, climate-eroding fossil fuel called natural gas:
“Future generations are unlikely to condone our lack of prudent concern for the integrity of the natural world that supports all life.”
This article first appeared on the Science & Environmental Health Network website.
The European Commission on Wednesday approved the German government's EUR28 billion ($29.69 billion) plan to rapidly expand clean energy production.
According to Reuters: "The scheme pays a premium to renewable energy producers, on top of the market price they receive for selling their power. Small generators can receive a feed-in-tariff providing a guaranteed price for their electricity."
The German Renewable Energy Act 2023, which replaces an existing support measure for green energy, runs until 2026 and is aimed at meeting Germany's goal of generating 80% of its electricity from wind, solar, and other renewable sources by 2030.
The European Commission called the policy "necessary and appropriate" to boost the supply of clean energy and slash planet-heating pollution. Officials said that the plan's environmental benefits outweigh its potential negative impacts on competition.
"The German Renewable Energy Act 2023 scheme will contribute to further decarbonize electricity production," Margrethe Vestager, the European Union's competition policy chief, said in a statement.
Swiftly increasing clean energy production is essential to achieving Germany's objective of reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045. It is also key to ameliorating potential energy shortages stemming from Russia's decision to cut off most of the gas it sends to Europe amid the war in Ukraine and the E.U.'s recent ban on seaborne crude oil from Russia.
As Reuters reported:
Berlin's response to Europe's energy crunch has attracted criticism from some E.U. countries. Concerns focussed on Germany's broader plan to spend up to EUR200 billion [$212.36 billion] in subsidies to shield consumers and businesses from soaring energy costs--a sum that many other states cannot afford, and which some said would distort competition in the European Union's single market.
The Commission said Berlin's renewable state support was limited to the "minimum necessary" and included safeguards to minimize competition distortions. Companies must bid for the aid in government tenders.
To avoid compensating companies twice, Germany will also phase out existing support for renewable producers in times of negative power prices by 2027.
The European Commission's approval of Germany's new renewable support plan--and a nearly 50% surge in solar installations across the E.U. this year--highlights green progress on the continent.
However, it comes after E.U. policymakers--in an attempt to reduce reliance on dirty energy from Russia--moved to expand fossil fuel infrastructure across Europe, with a focus on building capacity to accept higher volumes of fracked gas from the United States and other countries.
Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, progressives urged governments around the globe to treat the war as a catalyst for accelerating clean energy efforts. As researchers warned earlier this year, scaling up non-Russian fossil fuels will lock in decades of heat-trapping emissions at a time when the window to slash greenhouse gas pollution and avert the most catastrophic effects of the climate crisis is rapidly closing.
While greater quantities of wind and solar power are welcome, a simultaneous increase in dirty energy consumption runs counter to the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5degC above preindustrial levels--beyond which impacts will grow progressively worse for hundreds of millions of people, particularly those living in impoverished nations who have done the least to cause the crisis.
A desperately needed worldwide clean energy transition remains far behind schedule. Despite overwhelming evidence that extracting and burning more coal, oil, and gas will exacerbate deadly climate chaos, the fossil fuel industry--supported by trillions of dollars in public subsidies each year--has no plans to slow down this decade.