SUBSCRIBE TO OUR FREE NEWSLETTER
Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
5
#000000
#FFFFFF
south asia
Hope Is Not a Strategy: The Urgent Need for India and Pakistan to De-escalate
May 10, 2025
The heinous terrorist attack near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22 and the retaliatory May 6 missile and drone attacks by India, including on targets in Pakistani territory, have created the conditions for a dangerous escalation of hostilities between these two nuclear-armed states.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, as well as leaders from other key countries, including China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, and the United States, have called for urgent, direct dialogue leading to immediate de-escalation between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan. Nevertheless, the danger of a wider war has not yet been abated.
So far, President Trump has apparently only offered vague words of hope that a more serious crisis can be averted. "They've gone tit-for-tat, so hopefully they can stop now," Trump said at the White House on May 7, adding he knew both sides "very well" and wanted "to see them work it out." He added: "And if I can do anything to help, I will be there."
But given what is at stake, hope is not enough.
India has accused Pakistan of direct involvement in the terrorist attack through Islamist militant organizations it says have the backing of Islamabad. Pakistan has denied involvement and condemned the terror attack. But, following India’s missile volley, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said India must “suffer the consequences” for the attack and authorized “corresponding action,” which could trigger a chain reaction of strikes and counterstrikes against important military and political targets on each side.
With approximately 170 nuclear warheads each, India and Pakistan have enough nuclear firepower to obliterate the other; Pakistan retains the option to use nuclear weapons first against non-nuclear military threats. In recent days, Pakistan has continued to issue inflammatory statements hinting at potential nuclear use.
Following India's April 24 announcement regarding the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, Pakistan declared that it would react with "full force across the complete spectrum of national power," which is a not-so-veiled reference to the possible use of nuclear weapons.
Speaking to Pakistani TV channel Geo News Wednesday, Pakistan's Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said: "If they [India] impose an all-out war on the region and if such dangers arise in which there is a stand-off, then at any time a nuclear war can break out."
Any use of nuclear weapons in a conflict involving nuclear-armed states will likely lead to a wider nuclear war. Such a catastrophe in South Asia, one of the most populous areas of the world, would produce a catastrophe with regional and global effects beyond imagination.
A 2019 study published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists estimates tens of millions of people would be killed, "many major cities largely destroyed and uninhabitable, millions of injured people needing care, and power, transportation, and financial infrastructure in ruins," and the soot that would be ejected into the atmosphere by an India-Pakistan nuclear war would adversely affect the global climate.
The unfolding crisis highlights the reality that the possession and buildup of nuclear arsenals, the perpetuation of nuclear deterrence strategies, and threat of use of nuclear weapons by any state -- whether considered a friend or foe -- is an existential danger to international peace and security.
Senior U.S. leaders, including some presidents, have played an important and sometimes direct role in defusing earlier crises that could have led to nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
On Thursday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reportedly “emphasized the need for immediate de-escalation” in separate calls with Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif and India’s external affairs minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. These efforts are encouraging but not likely sufficient to avoid a spiraling, out-of-control crisis, which continues to worsen.
The most senior officials in the Trump administration, as well as Chinese leaders who have greater influence with Pakistan, will need to more actively and directly press both sides to refrain from issuing further threats or engaging in further military strikes against civilian or military targets -- whether that be in the form of ballistic missile attacks, drone attacks, or artillery bombardments across the line of control -- which could lead to disaster.
In addition, a second UN Security Council meeting this month on the topic should be scheduled to foster a serious dialogue on off-ramps, to increase the pressure on India and Pakistan to avoid further hostilities, and to explore options for longer-terms exchanges of views on how to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and the risk of nuclear war in the region.
Since the Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests of 1998, India continues to steadily develop more advanced nuclear weapons delivery systems while Pakistan produces more fissile material and new and longer-range missile capabilities in the name of “full spectrum deterrence” against India.
If and when this latest and immediate risk of escalation between India and Pakistan is averted, responsible global leaders need to implement a more comprehensive, balanced, and pro-active strategy to reduce nuclear risks in South Asia and bring India and Pakistan into the global nuclear disarmament enterprise.
Keep ReadingShow Less
'Escalation Risks Catastrophe': Restraint Urged as Pakistan Vows to Avenge Indian Strikes
"An armed conflict between India and Pakistan would be catastrophic for the world and must be avoided at all costs," warned U.S. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.
May 07, 2025
Observers around the world sounded the alarm Wednesday over the risks of escalation between nuclear neighbors after Pakistan retaliated for Indian airstrikes that reportedly killed over 30 civilians including children in response to last month's Pahalgam massacre in Indian-occupied Kashmir.
The Pakistani newspaper Dawnreported that India bombed six sites in Punjab's Sialkot and Bahawalpur, as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday night as part of Operation Sindoor, a response to the April 22 militant attack on a tourist site in Pahalgam that killed 26 people. India blamed Pakistan for supporting "cross-border terrorism" after a front group of the Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba claimed responsibility for the attack.
Officials in Islamabad said the Indian strikes this week skilled 31 civilians, including several children. In retaliation, Pakistan carried out artillery attacks across the so-called Line of Control on the border with India. The shelling reportedly killed at least 15 civilians. In a televised address, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the attacks a "reply" to India's airstrikes.
"When elephants fight, it's the grass that gets trampled."
Pakistani forces also shot down five Indian warplanes and attacked several Indian checkpoints, according to Pakistani military spokesperson Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry.
On Wednesday, Sharif claimed his government offered to cooperate with India to investigate the Pahalgam attack.
"Instead, they fired missiles inside our territory, thinking we would back down and will not retaliate," he said of India, vowing that "every drop of blood" will be avenged. Sharif added that India "must suffer the consequences" for its "cowardly" attacks.
Mirza Waheed, a Kashmiri journalist and award-winning novelist, toldDemocracy Now! on Wednesday that "this is a dangerous escalation."
Asked about the increasingly Hindu nationalist rule of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Waheed said "it is a different regime" than under previous New Delhi administrations, one that is "more open to armed response."
Noting that civilians have borne the brunt of cross-border clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces, Waheed said, "When elephants fight, it's the grass that gets trampled."
Foreign Policy South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman noted on social media that "India's strike on Pakistan is of much greater scale than the one in 2019."
"Pakistan's response, which according to many reports included downing several Indian jets, has also exceeded the scale of 2019," he added. "They're already higher up the escalatory ladder than any time in '19 crisis."
Echoing Wednesday's warning from a Nobel Peace Prize-winning nonproliferation group, British Green Party Member of Parliament Ellie Chowns said: "I am deeply alarmed by the overnight strikes between India and Pakistan and the tragic loss of civilian lives on both sides. As two nuclear-armed neighbors, escalation risks catastrophe."
"I urge both governments to step back from the brink in order to prioritize dialogue and lasting peace," Chowns added.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that it is "concerned about the current developments" between the two nations. China controls about 15% of Kashmir.
"China opposes all forms of terrorism. We call on both India and Pakistan to prioritize peace and stability, remain calm and restrained, and avoid taking actions that further complicate the situation," the ministry said. "China finds India's military operation early this morning regrettable… India and Pakistan are and will always be each other's neighbors. They're both China's neighbors as well."
In the United States—which backed Pakistan's 1971 genocide in Bangladesh that ended following an Indian invasion—President Donald Trump called the escalating situation between the nuclear neighbors "a shame."
"I hope it ends very quickly," Trump added, offering to mediate a deescalation between the two countries, as the U.S. has repeatedly done in the past.
U.S. Congresswoman Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) said on social media that "an armed conflict between India and Pakistan would be catastrophic for the world and must be avoided at all costs."
"The United States and our allies should be doing everything we can to stop another escalation and pursue all possible diplomatic avenues to resolve this peacefully," Omar asserted.
Keep ReadingShow Less
Amnesty Says Pakistan Must 'Immediately Rescind' Shoot-on-Sight Order Against Protesters
Jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan commended "the Pakistani nation and PTI's political workers, who are fighting for their rights by participating in this peaceful protest."
Nov 26, 2024
Amnesty International on Tuesday joined people around the world in pressuring the Pakistani government to revoke the "shoot-on-site" orders given to troops responding to tens of thousands of protesters in Islamabad who are demanding the release of jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Khan has been behind bars for over a year due to various charges that he and his allies argue are politically motivated. So far, at least six people, including four paramilitary soldiers, have been killed and dozens more injured as supporters of the 72-year-old and his political party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by his wife Bushra Bibi, have converged on the country's capital in recent days.
In addition to Khan's release, the protesters "seek the resignation of the current government over what they call
rigged general elections this year," Reutersreported Tuesday. "Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's government has given no indication yet of bending to the demands. Authorities have used shipping containers to block major roads and streets in Islamabad, with police and paramilitary patrolling in riot gear."
NDTVexplained that "when the Pakistan Army stepped in, it issued 'shoot-at-sight' orders under Section 245—which is a clause meant for the armed forces 'to defend Pakistan against external aggression or threat of war.' The clause also gives the army an open hand as it nullifies any judicial intervention or future proceedings."
"Any use of force must be lawful and no more than is necessary and proportionate and the authorities must take all necessary measures to prevent arbitrary deprivation of life."
Responding to the developments on Tuesday, Amnesty's South Asia office said that "the government must fully protect and ensure the rights of protesters and immediately rescind the 'shoot-on-sight' orders that provide undue and excessive powers to the military... The authorities must exercise maximum restraint, aiming to prevent and de-escalate violence and to avoid the use of force. Any use of force must be lawful and no more than is necessary and proportionate and the authorities must take all necessary measures to prevent arbitrary deprivation of life, including by ensuring that law enforcement actions are adequately planned to minimize the risk to life."
"There must also be effective accountability for any unlawful use of force," Amnesty continued. "The severe restrictions on assembly, movement, and mobile and internet services as well as arbitrary detentions of thousands of protesters across Pakistan, particularly in Islamabad, are a grave violation of the rights to freedom of peaceful assembly, movement, and expression. As protesters enter the capital, law enforcement officials have used unlawful and excessive force including tear gas, live ammunition, and rubber bullets against PTI protesters."
"Even if protests become nonpeaceful, the authorities must respect and ensure the protesters' rights to life and freedom from torture and other ill-treatment," the group added. "The Pakistani authorities have obligations under international human rights law to provide an enabling environment for the protesters. Amnesty International urges the government to ensure that the right to freedom of peaceful assembly is respected and protected. Those detained solely for exercising their right to peaceful assembly must be released immediately."
Pakistani poet and journalist Ahmed Farhad has used social media to share protest updates in Urdu, but also posted a message in English on Tuesday: "I don't know if I'll be alive or free to report further. I've been riding on bike for several kilometers to share these updates. I request international and national media to show the situation at D-Chowk. People are being shot at with heartless brutality. I don't know how many more people have been injured or killed by the time this post reaches you."
D-Chowk, a popular square in the capital near multiple government buildings, was "the final destination of PTI's main convoy," according toDawn. As midnight neared in Pakistan Tuesday night, the newspaper reported that "rangers have regained control of Islamabad's D-Chowk after beginning arrests and pushing back PTI protesters from the venue of the party's much-touted power show."
Meanwhile, Khan on Tuesday
issued a new statement from Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi, commending "the Pakistani nation and PTI's political workers, who are fighting for their rights by participating in this peaceful protest, and resolutely standing before the mafia that has imposed itself upon our country, to demand their rights and genuine freedom."
"My message for my team is to fight until the last ball is bowled. We will not back down until our demands are met!" he continued, taking aim at the Pakistan's interior minister. "On Mohsin Naqvi's instructions, paramilitary rangers and police relentlessly fired tear gas shells and even shot at our political workers, resulting in the martyrdom of and injuries to peaceful, unarmed citizens. Let me tell you, they will have to answer for this! The protesters were not only peaceful, but they even assisted the very police officers and rangers who were shooting and firing teargas shells at them (when they were in need of help)."
"My thanks go to overseas Pakistanis around the globe, who are not only mobilizing Pakistanis and contributing funds, but also holding historic protests in their respective countries," he said. "Social media warriors around the globe should continue to vigorously reiterate our demands and show the world the ongoing oppression in Pakistan! To those threatening to try me in military court: Do what you must; I will not back down from my stance. Those who haven't yet joined the protest must also head to D-Chowk. All Pakistanis participating in the protest must remain peaceful, stay united, and stand firm until our demands are met. Remember, this is a struggle for Pakistan's survival and true freedom!"
Several solidarity protests were held around the world on Sunday and multiple U.S. political leaders weighed in the past few days.
"The brutal repression of protesters in Pakistan and growing political violence is an attempt to suppress democracy and human rights," U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) said Tuesday. "I stand with the brave Pakistanis who are rising up and protesting for change."
Congresswoman Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) declared Monday that "freedom of speech and the freedom to peacefully protest are essential to democracy—that holds true in the United States, in Pakistan, and around the globe. I stand with pro-democracy advocates in Pakistan as they fight for justice and human rights."
Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) said Monday that "I am moved by the bravery demonstrated by the Pakistani people as they protest for electoral integrity, and judicial fairness—and I condemn any violent suppression of them exercising their fundamental rights. Everyone deserves to speak out and demand democracy."
In a pair of social media posts on Sunday, Congressman Ro Khanna (D-Calif.)
noted his support for recent letters led by Reps. Greg Casar (D-Texas), Susan Wild (D-Pa.), and John James (R-Mich.) "urging for the release of all political prisoners in Pakistan and for the U.S. to stand up for human rights," and specifically sounded the alarm about communications blackouts.
"Deeply concerned by reports that Asim Munir's regime in Pakistan is cutting internet, blocking roads, and abducting activists this weekend," he
said. "As the congressman for Silicon Valley, I am committed to standing up for freedom of speech including a free internet."
Keep ReadingShow Less
Most Popular