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"At a time when costs are rising and tariffs are wreaking havoc on people's pocketbooks, Republicans are doubling down on their agenda of raising healthcare costs on millions of Americans."
US states accounting for roughly a third of the nation's gross domestic product are currently in recession or on the verge of one as the federal government shutdown enters its fourth week, with congressional Republicans and President Donald Trump refusing to support an extension of key healthcare subsidies that are set to lapse at the end of the year.
A recent analysis by Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimates that 22 states are experiencing an economic downturn or are at serious risk of recession, a nascent crisis fueled by Trump's tariffs, mass deportations, and sweeping attack on the federal workforce—an assault that has intensified since the federal government shut down at the beginning of October.
States currently in or on the brink of recession include Maine, Oregon, Washington, Illinois, and Georgia. Among the states “treading water” are California and New York, according to Zandi, whose analysis was based on figures that predated the government shutdown.
Leor Tal, campaign director at the progressive advocacy coalition Unrig Our Economy, said Monday in response to the analysis that "Republicans in Congress are holding the US economy hostage, and working families are paying the price."
"At a time when costs are rising and tariffs are wreaking havoc on people's pocketbooks, Republicans are doubling down on their agenda of raising healthcare costs on millions of Americans," said Tal. "It's time for congressional Republicans to reopen the government, extend the healthcare tax credits, and start lowering costs for working families."
The shutdown, which Trump has embraced and exploited to advance his far-right agenda, began at a time when the country's economy was already on uneasy footing, with food prices continuing to rise despite the president's campaign promises, GOP Medicaid cuts causing chaos across the nation, and the labor market flashing signs of distress.
With no end to the shutdown in sight, The Associated Press noted Sunday that the "the U.S. Travel Association said the travel economy is expected to lose $1 billion a week as travelers change plans to visit national parks, historic sites, and the nation's capital, where many facilities such as Smithsonian Institution museums and the National Zoo are now closed to visitors."
If the government remains shut down in November, tens of millions of Americans could see cuts to Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits—which boost the economy while reducing hunger—and other aid.
Meanwhile, even as the Trump administration withholds federal labor market data amid the shutdown, economists say private and state-level figures signal escalating pain for workers that is sure to intensify the longer the closure persists.
"The fingerprints of Trump policy decisions are most clearly found in the distinct rise in federal [unemployment insurance] claims—claims filed specifically by workers laid off from federal agencies," Elise Gould and Joe Fast of the Economic Policy Institute wrote last week. "However, we are also seeing troubling trends in UI claims in regular state programs, particularly in the Washington, DC metropolitan area."
"The shutdown (and potentially the attempted politicization of key government data-collection agencies) could leave policymakers flying blind just as the economy encounters real turbulence," they cautioned.
John Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at Rice University's Baker Institute, warned earlier this month that the shutdown "could be a tipping point to recession."
"If it is resolved quickly, the costs will be small," Diamond argued, "but if it drags on, it could send the US economy into a tailspin."
“These tax cuts are not only fiscally reckless but also deeply inequitable."
A progressive think tank has found that America's wealthiest citizens aren't just benefiting from the federal tax cuts passed in Republicans' One Big Beautiful Bill Act this past summer, but from tax giveaways offered by Republican-run states.
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) released a new analysis on Thursday showing that five states—Kansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Ohio, and Oklahoma—this year have enacted income tax cuts for families that earn over $1 million per year that are projected to collectively reduce their state governments' revenues by $2.2 billion per year once fully implemented.
The two biggest tax cuts for the wealthy came in Mississippi and Oklahoma, both of which have voted to phase out their state's income taxes over the span of several years. Once the income tax is fully repealed in those two states, ITEP estimates that millionaires living in them will pay $130,000 less per year.
ITEP also poked holes in any Republican claims that the tax cuts they passed were a benefit for "working families," and showed how the GOP's policy is overwhelmingly tilted to benefit the wealthy.
"The average millionaire tax cut is more than 50 times the size of the average cut for non-millionaires in each of the five states included in this report," the think tank noted. "In Mississippi and Ohio the average tax cuts for millionaires are over 100 times the size of those for non-millionaires."
The group found that the tax cuts passed in Missouri were particularly egregious when it comes to benefiting millionaires. As reported by the Missouri Independent, Missouri lawmakers over the summer made their state the first in the nation to eliminate taxes on capital gains, which is estimated to slash state revenues by more than $100 million per year.
According to ITEP, this tax cut is projected to deliver a $43,000 average annual benefit to Missouri families making over $1 million per year, and an $80 average annual benefit to Missouri's non-millionaire households.
Aidan Davis, ITEP's state policy director, expressed dismay at how much these state governments were willing to give to their wealthiest residents, even as their own state budgets face significant cuts to programs such as Medicaid the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, both of which help low-income Americans.
"These tax cuts are not only fiscally reckless but also deeply inequitable," Davis explained. "At a time when state budgets are under immense pressure, it's indefensible to hand millionaires five- and six-figure annual tax cuts while too many families struggle with affording the basics."
Dylan Grundman O’Neill, senior analyst at ITEP, argued that these states' policies "double down on inequality" and "prioritize millionaires while putting critical services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure at risk for everyone else."
"The frustration is overwhelming," said the president of the American Soybean Association.
US soybean farmers are growing increasingly frustrated as their sales to China have cratered thanks to President Donald Trump's trade war.
As Politico reported on Thursday, farmers throughout the country are saying they desperately need financial assistance to stay afloat after China has stopped buying their crops all together in retaliation for Trump's tariffs.
While the president has promised a bailout of some kind for US farmers, experts who spoke with Politico said that it would likely take months to get money out to farmers who are in the most need. On top of that, experts say that farmers need financial relief as soon as possible so they are able to plan for next year's planting season.
“Farmers are hurting financially,” Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) told Politico. “They’re very troubled, there’s some expectation for help. Emotionally, it would be great for something to happen soon. But financially, they need to be able to go to their bankers and say that help is on the way.”
The farmers themselves have also not been shy about expressing their displeasure to journalists.
In a Wednesday interview with CNN, Illinois soybean farmer John Bartman said he was angry with how Trump's trade war has impacted his farm, which he noted typically sells its crops overseas.
"There's no reason for it!" he said of Trump's trade war. "This is absolute stupidity. This is a man-made crisis caused by Donald Trump."
Maryland soybean farmer David Burrier told NBC Washington in an interview published on Tuesday that he was not thrilled with the idea of getting a bailout from the federal government and instead simply wanted to be able to sell his crops to willing buyers again.
“Unless we have a trade deal... what happens next year if we don’t have a trade deal?” Burrier asked. “Do we get another welfare check? C’mon guys. Let’s pay attention to where we’re at and what's going on.”
“This is not a problem we can kick down the road; this is a problem here and now," he added.
Farmers have also expressed irritation that Trump's administration is rushing through with a bailout package for the financially troubled government of Argentinian President Javier Milei whose value could top $40 billion.
Meanwhile, China has massively stepped up its soybean purchases from Argentina even as it refuses to buy any from US farmers.
“The frustration is overwhelming,” Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, told Politico. “US soybean prices are falling, harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines not about securing a trade agreement with China, but that the US government is extending $20 billion in economic support to Argentina while that country drops its soybean export taxes to sell 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans to China in just two days.”
Fox Business host Stuart Varney referenced this sense of frustration during a Thursday interview with US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, asking her what she'd say to farmers upset that the government is bailing out one of their major competitors in the global soybean market.
"Well, I understand the frustration from farm country," Rollins began. "But what I will say is this: The president's focus remains 100% on America first, on ensuring he has the farmers' of America's backs."
She then said that the Argentina bailout was necessary "for the sake of world peace and world stability."
FOX: “Some farmers worry the Argentina bailout is prioritizing Milei over 🇺🇸 farmers.”
Ag @SecRollins: “That’s out of my lane” 🤔
She then says a bailout (that won’t make them whole) is coming and vomits out word salad about how much he cares about them.
Imagine buying this. pic.twitter.com/EOFmxsiMeI
— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) October 16, 2025
As Axios reported on Wednesday, Trump's decision to help Argentina while US farmers are struggling has sparked angst among some Republican lawamakers who represent rural states and areas, with Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) saying the president's "America First" brand was "damaged" by the bailout.
Some of them pressed US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer during a lunch this week about when farmers could expect an aid package.
Regardless, Axios wrote, the Republicans offered “tepid, general support” for Trump as he came to Argentina’s rescue.
"Yet, they never have the funds for healthcare coverage for all," said Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib.
Reality once again clashed uncomfortably with Argentinian President Javier Milei's so-called "libertarian revolution" Wednesday as the Trump administration said it is working to double a $20 billion private sector bailout to prop up the South American nation's moribund currency amid enduring high poverty and inflation and broader economic fragility.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters in Washington, DC Wednesday that the $20 billion currency swap—essentially a loan—for Argentina announced last month "would be a total of $40 billion," with funding coming from banks and sovereign wealth funds to enable the country to pay off its more than $300 billion in external debt.
The bailout is aimed at boosting Argentina's flagging peso, which has fallen by nearly one-quarter against the US dollar this year. A decade ago, $1 was equal to 18 pesos. Today, a single dollar will buy 1,361 pesos. That's a loss of more than 99% in value over the past 10 years.
The Argentine peso has lost more than 99% of its value against the US dollar over the past decade. (Image by xe)
Although poverty in Argentina has fallen significantly from over 50% shortly after Milei's election, around 30% of Argentinians remain poor and prices and inflation are again rising significantly. While Milei has drastically slashed inflation, the reduction has come via the devaluation of the peso and massive cuts in government spending, including the evisceration of social programs resulting in more expensive housing, healthcare, and education.
Bessent's announcement comes ahead of Argentina's October 26 midterm elections that will test the mandate for Milei—an admirer and close ally of President Donald Trump—to continue with his slash-and-burn approach to streamlining government.
While meeting with Milei at the White House Tuesday, Trump said the bailout is contingent upon the Argentine president remaining in power.
“If he loses, we are not going to be generous with Argentina,” Trump told reporters. “I think he’s going to win, and if he wins, we’re staying with him, and if he doesn’t win, we’re gone.”
The combination of fiscal austerity, gutting of government agencies, dangerous deregulation, inflation, and currency devaluation have caused Milei's unfavorability rating to soar to over 60% in some polls, it's highest level ever.
Milei—a self-described anarcho-capitalist who was elected in November 2023 on a wave of populist revulsion at the status quo—campaigned on a platform of repairing the moribund economy, tackling inflation, reducing poverty, and dismantling the state. He made wild promises including dollarizing Argentina’s economy and abolishing the central bank.
However, the realities of leading South America’s second-largest economy have forced Milei’s administration to abandon or significantly curtail key agenda items, leading to accusations of neoliberalism and betrayal from the right, and hypocrisy and rank incompetence from the left.
“Let’s not get confused: Milei went to beg for money and a photo of Trump because his economic plan failed," Argentine lawmaker Emilio Monzó said Tuesday.
Another lawmaker, Margarita Stolbizer, said on social media Tuesday that "freedom is crawling."
"Trump tells us Argentines that if we don't vote for Milei, we'll be punished," she added. "The interference is absolute, the libertarian surrender is total. Let's have confidence in the pride of our people: We are millions who don't want to be told what we have to do."
US singer and political commentator Blakeley Bartley skewered Milei, "the based anarcho-capitalist conservative," in a social media post on Wednesday."
"He was gonna get in power, cut government spending," Bartley continued. "Remember, all your favorite right-wingers and American media said, 'You gotta support him, man, he's a based conservative that's gonna save Argentina."
"What's that?" Bartley added. "Oh, that's right, he drove the economy into the fucking ground and now he needs a welfare check from Daddy America."
Others—ranging from progressives angry over tens of billions of dollars being spent on foreign bailouts while so many people are struggling and suffering in the US to hardcore MAGA supporters—are asking, how is bailing out Argentina "America First?"
"Trump wants to DOUBLE Argentina's bailout to $40 billion to save his political ally," Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said on social media. "Yet he is doing nothing to prevent 15 million Americans from losing their healthcare and 20 million from seeing a doubling in their premiums. Is this what Trump means by America first?"
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) said: "Apparently $20 billion of our taxpayer money wasn't enough to bail out Argentina. Now Trump wants US banks to divert ANOTHER $20 billion away from lending to American businesses, farmers, and families to prop up Milei's corrupt presidency and failing economy."
Former US Labor Secretary Robert Reich said, "So much for 'America First.'"
John Bartam, a soybean farmer from Illinois, slammed the bailout in a Tuesday interview with the Daily Beast, noting that Trump’s $20 billion lifeline enabled Milei to lower his country's export tax, leading to China buying seven million tons of Argentinian soybeans at the expense of the US. This, as American soybean farmers reel from Trump's tariff war with China, which until recently was the world's leading buyer of the top US export crop.
“MAGA," Bartam said, "now means Make Argentina Great Again."