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seniors
Chief Actuary Says Trump-GOP Budget Law Will 'Worsen' Social Security's Finances
"Republicans have brought Social Security closer to running out of money," said Sen. Ron Wyden. "Every day that goes by makes it clear that the Republican agenda is making Americans sicker and poorer."
Aug 06, 2025
The Social Security Administration's chief actuary said Tuesday that the budget package President Donald Trump signed into law last month will harm Social Security's finances, bringing forward the date beyond which the program will no longer be able to pay out full benefits.
In a letter to Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who requested an analysis of the budget law's impact on Social Security's trust funds, Chief Actuary Karen Glenn wrote that the income tax provisions of the Trump-GOP measure "will have material effects on the financial status" of the program.
Glenn estimated that under the law—which includes a temporary new tax deduction for seniors—"the reserve depletion date for the [Old-Age and Survivors Insurance] Trust Fund is accelerated from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032." Glenn went on to note that the law "will decrease (worsen) the 75-year [Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance] actuarial balance by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll."
"The combined net effect of these income tax provisions results in less overall tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries," Glenn wrote. "In turn, the trust funds will receive lower levels of projected revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits for all years beginning in 2025."
Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement responding to the actuary's analysis that "not only did Republicans give massive tax breaks to corporations and the ultra-wealthy, not only did they make the largest cut to American healthcare in history, but now it is clear Republicans have brought Social Security closer to running out of money."
"Every day that goes by makes it clear that the Republican agenda is making Americans sicker and poorer," Wyden added.
The most recent Social Security Board of Trustees report, which was released ahead of the budget legislation's passage, estimated that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund would be able to pay out 100% of benefits until 2033. Past that point, the trustees found, the fund would be able to pay out 77% of total scheduled benefits.
The actuary's new estimates align with other expert assessments of the budget law, which the Trump-appointed commissioner of the Social Security Administration has openly celebrated with misleading messaging.
The conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated in an analysis released in late June that "the extension and expansion of the 2017 tax cuts, the expanded senior deduction, and other [budget law] changes would reduce total taxation of benefits by roughly $30 billion per year," enough to "accelerate insolvency of the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors (OASI) trust fund from early 2033 to late 2032."
The liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) echoed those findings, noting that "the new law doesn't help most low- and middle-income seniors, and it depletes the Social Security trust funds faster."
"The law creates a new $6,000 deduction through 2028 for taxpayers aged 65 and over," CBPP researchers explained. "This will reduce taxable income—including from Social Security benefits—and thus the amount of tax that eligible seniors will pay."
Like the budget measure overall, the benefits of the tax deduction for seniors will be heavily skewed toward those with higher incomes. According to a new Tax Policy Center (TPC) analysis, "fewer than half of older adults will benefit at all."
"Among seniors, the biggest beneficiaries will be those making between about $130,000 and $190,000 (the highest-income 80% to 90%). More than 95% will benefit from the higher deduction," TPC estimated. "By contrast, about 99% of those making $24,000 or less would get no benefit from the higher deduction."
Fresh scrutiny of the budget law's impact on Social Security and its beneficiaries comes days after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that "Trump accounts" established by the law are "a backdoor way for privatizing Social Security."
Bessent later tried to walk back the comments, claiming on social media that the Trump administration is "committed to protecting Social Security and to making sure seniors have more money."
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Bessent Admits Trump Tax Scam Offers 'Backdoor for Privatizing Social Security'
"Despite their repeated claims they wanted to protect Social Security, the Trump administration said the quiet part out loud," said one critic in response to the billionaire treasury secretary's candid comments.
Jul 30, 2025
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday admitted that a provision in Republicans' One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a mechanism for privatizing Social Security—something President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he won't do.
Speaking at a policy event hosted by the far-right news site Breitbart, Bessent touted the so-called "Trump accounts" available to all U.S. citizen children starting next July under the OBBBA signed by the president earlier this month.
"In a way, it is a backdoor way for privatizing Social Security," the billionaire former hedge fund manager said of the accounts. "Social Security is a defined benefit plan paid out—that to the extent that if all of a sudden these accounts grow, and you have in the hundreds of thousands of dollars for your retirement, that's a game-changer."
Responding to Bessent's admission, Tim Hogan—the Democratic National Committee senior adviser for messaging, mobilization, and strategy—said that the treasury secretary "just said the quiet part out loud: The administration is scheming to privatize Social Security."
"It wasn't enough to kick millions of people off their healthcare and take food away from hungry kids," Hogan added. "Trump is now coming after American seniors with a 'backdoor' scam to take away the benefits they earned. Democrats won't stand by as Trump screws over working families in order to give more handouts to billionaires."
House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) said in a statement: "Today, the treasury secretary said the quiet part out loud: Republicans' ultimate goal is to privatize Social Security, and there isn't a backdoor they won't try to make Wall Street's dream a reality. For everyone else though, it's yet another warning sign that they cannot be trusted to safeguard the program millions rely on and have paid into over a lifetime of work."
Nancy Altman, president of the advocacy group Social Security Works, mocked Trump's promises to preserve the key program upon which more than 70 million Americans rely—and called him out for eviscerating the Social Security Administration (SSA).
"So much for Donald Trump's campaign promise to protect Social Security," Altman said in a statement. "First, he gave Elon Musk the power to gut SSA. Now, Trump's treasury secretary has said the quiet part out loud. He is bragging about the administration's goal to privatize Social Security."
"First, they are undermining public confidence in Social Security by making false claims about fraud (which is virtually nonexistent) and wrecking the system's service to the public," Altman continued. "Then, once they have broken Social Security, they will say that Wall Street needs to come in and save it."
"That is a terrible idea," she added. "Unlike private savings, Social Security is a guaranteed earned benefit that you can't outlive. It has stood strong through wars, recessions, and pandemics. The American people have a message for Trump and Bessent: Keep Wall Street's hands off our Social Security!"
Alliance for Retired Americans executive director Richard Fiesta said that "Bessent let the cat out of the bag: This administration is coming for Social Security."
"We're not surprised—but we are alarmed because this administration has already taken multiple steps to weaken and dismantle Social Security," Fiesta added, highlighting the weakening of the SSA, false fraud claims, and "the massive tax breaks to the wealthy and corporations" under the OBBBA that experts say will hasten the Social Security Trust Fund's insolvency.
The progressive watchdog Accountable.US called Bessent's remarks "a shocking confession."
"Despite their repeated claims they wanted to protect Social Security, the Trump administration said the quiet part out loud: The Big Ugly Betrayal is a backdoor way to privatize Social Security," Accountable.US executive director Tony Carrk said in a statement.
"Once again the administration is risking the financial security of millions of Americans in order to protect a system rigged in the favor of big corporations and billionaires," Carrk added.
In another blow to Social Security recipients, the Trump administration is set to implement a new policy next month that is expected to further increase wait times for basic services. As Common Dreams reported Wednesday, starting in mid-August, SSA will no longer allow seniors to use their phones for routine tasks they've been able to perform for decades.
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Why We Can't Simply Celebrate Medicare's 60th Birthday
Let's not allow President Trump and congressional Republicans to shred one of the greatest legacies of LBJ's Great Society.
Jul 30, 2025
Medicare turns 60 years old today. Former U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson signed it into law on July 30, 1965, giving seniors a guarantee of health coverage that never existed before. Prior to Medicare's enactment, it was nearly impossible for older people to obtain health insurance, as they were considered a "bad risk."
Medicare provides universal coverage to Americans over 65 years of age. The law created Medicare Part A as a national hospital insurance program. Part B is a voluntary program for doctor visits and other medical services. Medicare Part C is another name for the privatized, for-profit version of the program called "Medicare Advantage." And Part D is the prescription drug program enacted in 2003.
The Hospital Insurance portion is funded through workers' payroll contributions. At the signing ceremony in Independence, Missouri, LBJ said, "Through this new law, every citizen will be able, in their productive years when they are earning, to insure themselves against the ravages of illness in his old age."
Lyndon Johnson paid tribute to former President Harry S. Truman, presenting him with the very first Medicare card. It was Truman who, 20 years earlier, had proposed a form of universal medical coverage for the American people.
LBJ quoted Truman's remarks from the 1940s:
Millions of our citizens do not now have a full measure of opportunity to achieve and to enjoy good health. Millions do not now have protection or security against the economic effects of sickness. And the time has now arrived for action to help them attain that opportunity and to help them get that protection.
It turned out that the time had not yet arrived. Truman's proposal failed to gain traction during a time of retrenchment from the expansions of the New Deal, and a Republican majority on Capitol Hill which he famously labeled the "Do-Nothing Congress."
President Johnson's determination to enact his Great Society agenda (of which Medicare was a large part) and sheer political muscle—not to mention solid Democratic control of Congress—pushed Medicare (and its sister program, Medicaid) into being.
Naturally, Medicare faced strong opposition from conservatives. None other than Ronald Reagan made the ludicrous prediction that if Medicare were enacted, "You and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children's children what it once was like in America when men were free." Sixty years later, we are no less "free" because of Medicare. In fact, having guaranteed healthcare makes seniors and people with disabilities (and their families) much more free—from disease, from worry, and financial ruin.
Today, 68 million people rely on Medicare for health coverage, including 12 million who are dually eligible for Medicare and Medicaid. Medicare isn't perfect: The for-profit Medicare Advantage (Part C) program is extremely problematic (see below). The Medicare Part A trust fund will become depleted in 2033 if Congress fails to take action to strengthen it. Traditional Medicare still doesn't cover basic hearing, vision, and dental care—which we have been pushing for many years. But most concerning of all—President Donald Trump and his party have spent this 60th anniversary year actively undermining both Medicare and Medicaid.
The "Unfair, Ugly" bill that Trump signed earlier this month slashed nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid, which will strip health coverage from an estimated 10 to 16 million lower-income Americans. The new law—projected to add some $4 trillion to the national debt—could trigger cuts to Medicare down the road.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is recklessly taking steps to privatize the entire Medicare program. It has announced a pilot project to involve private companies in conducting prior authorizations for care in traditional Medicare. The administration, under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Director Mehmet Oz, also has announced a plan to automatically enroll new Medicare beneficiaries in the for-profit Medicare Advantage (MA) program—a huge gift to the multibillion dollar insurance industry at the expense of patients.
The problems with Medicare Advantage (MA) have become legendary. Enrollees are basically put into health maintenance organizations run by insurance giants, with limited networks of providers. Unreasonable denials of care are rampant. Patients who become disenchanted with MA plans often find it nearly impossible to switch to traditional Medicare. Meanwhile, some MA Insurers have been overcharging the government for their services and ripping off taxpayers. (Several of these companies are currently under investigation.)
We are watching to see if the Trump administration, which talks a good game about lowering prescription medication costs while simultaneously doing favors for Big Pharma, will honor the provisions of President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which made myriad patient-friendly reforms to the Part D drug program—including out of pocket caps for beneficiaries and empowering Medicare to negotiate prices with the industry.
The bottom line is: Let's not allow President Trump and congressional Republicans to shred one of the greatest legacies of LBJ's Great Society. We and our fellow advocacy groups are pushing back—and so is the grassroots "Hands Off" movement. But we don't want to be fighting this same battle every time Medicare (and Medicaid) mark an anniversary when we should be purely celebrating.
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