Chief Actuary Says Trump-GOP Budget Law Will 'Worsen' Social Security's Finances

The Social Security Administration's chief actuary said Tuesday that the budget package President Donald Trump signed into law last month will harm Social Security's finances, bringing forward the date beyond which the program will no longer be able to pay out full benefits.

In a letter to Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who requested an analysis of the budget law's impact on Social Security's trust funds, Chief Actuary Karen Glenn wrote that the income tax provisions of the Trump-GOP measure "will have material effects on the financial status" of the program.

Glenn estimated that under the law—which includes a temporary new tax deduction for seniors—"the reserve depletion date for the [Old-Age and Survivors Insurance] Trust Fund is accelerated from the first quarter of 2033 to the fourth quarter of 2032." Glenn went on to note that the law "will decrease (worsen) the 75-year [Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance] actuarial balance by 0.16 percent of taxable payroll."

"The combined net effect of these income tax provisions results in less overall tax liability for Social Security beneficiaries," Glenn wrote. "In turn, the trust funds will receive lower levels of projected revenue from income taxation of Social Security benefits for all years beginning in 2025."

Wyden, the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, said in a statement responding to the actuary's analysis that "not only did Republicans give massive tax breaks to corporations and the ultra-wealthy, not only did they make the largest cut to American healthcare in history, but now it is clear Republicans have brought Social Security closer to running out of money."

"Every day that goes by makes it clear that the Republican agenda is making Americans sicker and poorer," Wyden added.

The most recent Social Security Board of Trustees report, which was released ahead of the budget legislation's passage, estimated that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund would be able to pay out 100% of benefits until 2033. Past that point, the trustees found, the fund would be able to pay out 77% of total scheduled benefits.

The actuary's new estimates align with other expert assessments of the budget law, which the Trump-appointed commissioner of the Social Security Administration has openly celebrated with misleading messaging.

The conservative Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated in an analysis released in late June that "the extension and expansion of the 2017 tax cuts, the expanded senior deduction, and other [budget law] changes would reduce total taxation of benefits by roughly $30 billion per year," enough to "accelerate insolvency of the Social Security Old-Age and Survivors (OASI) trust fund from early 2033 to late 2032."

The liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) echoed those findings, noting that "the new law doesn't help most low- and middle-income seniors, and it depletes the Social Security trust funds faster."

"The law creates a new $6,000 deduction through 2028 for taxpayers aged 65 and over," CBPP researchers explained. "This will reduce taxable income—including from Social Security benefits—and thus the amount of tax that eligible seniors will pay."

Like the budget measure overall, the benefits of the tax deduction for seniors will be heavily skewed toward those with higher incomes. According to a new Tax Policy Center (TPC) analysis, "fewer than half of older adults will benefit at all."

"Among seniors, the biggest beneficiaries will be those making between about $130,000 and $190,000 (the highest-income 80% to 90%). More than 95% will benefit from the higher deduction," TPC estimated. "By contrast, about 99% of those making $24,000 or less would get no benefit from the higher deduction."

Fresh scrutiny of the budget law's impact on Social Security and its beneficiaries comes days after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared that "Trump accounts" established by the law are "a backdoor way for privatizing Social Security."

Bessent later tried to walk back the comments, claiming on social media that the Trump administration is "committed to protecting Social Security and to making sure seniors have more money."