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copernicus climate change service
'We Are Running Out of Time': 2025 Keeps Hot Streak Alive for Global Temperatures
"Governments know fossil fuels are the cause of climate breakdown, yet they keep stalling on the transition."
Jan 14, 2026
Increasing fossil fuel extraction helped make 2025 the third-hottest year on record and marked the third straight year of “extraordinary global temperatures,” according to a major new report on the climate crisis.
On Wednesday, the European Union's Copernicus climate agency published a report based on data from climate-monitoring organizations, including NASA and the World Meteorological Organization.
Based on billions of weather readings from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations, the report found that, for the first time in recorded history, global temperatures over a three-year period have exceeded the critical threshold of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels.
At current rates of heating, the report found, the Earth could surpass the Paris Climate Accord’s target of 1.5°C on a long-term basis by 2030, more than a decade sooner than scientists' projection when nations negotiated the pledge to reduce emissions back in 2015.
“Atmospheric data from 2025 paints a clear picture: Human activity remains the dominant driver of the exceptional temperatures we are observing,” said Laurence Rouil, the director of Copernicus’ Atmosphere Monitoring Service. “Atmospheric greenhouse gases have steadily increased over the last 10 years.”
(Graphic from the Copernicus Climate Change Service)
As with previous years, 2025 was marked by a series of disasters fueled by rising temperatures: From a historic heatwaves that killed an estimated 24,000 people in Europe, to typhoons across Asia that displaced millions, to the wildfires that ravaged the Los Angeles area roughly a year ago and were one of a record 23 disasters in the US that exceeded more than a billion dollars in damage.
The Copernicus report was released as Australia suffered what DW News called possibly its "first megafire of the climate change age" in Victoria, which had charred over 350,000 hectares (more than 864,000 acres) of land as of Sunday and forced thousands to flee their homes.
(Video: Sky News Australia)
"Extreme weather isn’t rare anymore—it’s driving up food prices, insurance premiums, water shortages, and upending daily life across the globe," said Savio Carvalho, the managing director for campaigns and networks for the climate activist group 350. "Governments know fossil fuels are the cause of climate breakdown, yet they keep stalling on the transition. We don’t have the luxury of wasting time or taking side paths—we are running out of time."
The past year was marked by yet more disappointment for those hoping to see collective global action to reduce carbon emissions.
The most glaring setbacks occurred in the United States—the globe's largest historic polluter—where President Donald Trump has virtually halted renewable energy expansion, pushed to crank up fossil fuel extraction, and sought to end the "endangerment finding" that allows carbon emissions to be regulated on the basis of their harm to the climate.
But even in the absence of Trump, the past year's global climate summit in Brazil, COP30, once again fell well short of a cohesive international action plan, ending with no global agreement to wind down the use of oil, gas, and coal. Eighty nations failed to submit global emissions pledges, and many of those that did failed to make commitments that would likely bend the global temperature curve in a favorable direction.
Where scientists once urged nations to take swift action in the hope of passing the 1.5°C tipping point, Carlo Buontempo, the director of Copernicus, said following Wednesday's report that "we are bound to pass it."
He said, "The choice we now have is how to best manage the inevitable overshoot and its consequences on societies and natural systems."
But an overshoot is intolerable to many on the front lines of the crisis.
"In the Pacific, climate disasters are costing us billions of dollars in recovery and rebuilding," said Fenton Lutunatabua, 350's program manager for the Pacific and Caribbean. "A world beyond 1.5°C would devastate our resources even more."
"Entire villages in Fiji are being uprooted and relocated, losing connection to traditional lands and fishing grounds," he added. "Atoll nations like Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are grappling with both adaptation and addressing the reality of potential forced migration. To give up on 1.5°C is to say that any of these realities is acceptable."
In Indonesia, where unprecedented flash floods in November killed 1,100 people, Suriadi Darmoko, an activist in Bali who is suing his government following an International Court of Justice ruling allowing states to be held legally accountable over climate harms, agreed that complacency is not an option.
“Entire communities are still buried in mud. Thousands of families are still grieving and struggling to have their basic needs met. We refuse to be treated as mere climate disaster victims," he said. "Our leaders have kept the world hooked on fossil fuels even as they knew decades ago it would lead to such tragedies."
Carvalho, too, rejected the notion that extreme warming is something the Earth must accept. Despite setbacks to collective action, 2025 also saw certain actors on the global stage make great strides toward a renewable future.
In large part due to massive investments by China, renewable sources generated more power worldwide than coal for the first time, and solar energy generation grew by 31% in the first half of the year, outpacing demand growth.
"We need to do what’s right now: a global phase out of fossil fuels is urgent," said Carvalho. "We already have the renewable energy solutions we need—what’s missing is the political will. We can prevent the worst if we act now."
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'Grim News for the Planet' as Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low
"The environment does not care about politics. Keep spewing greenhouse gases and face the consequences."
Mar 06, 2025
European Union officials said the Copernicus Climate Change Service had issued its latest "stark reminder of why climate action is urgent" when the bloc's program announced that it observed less sea ice covering the Earth's oceans last month than at any other point in recorded history.
In the Arctic, sea ice reached its lowest monthly extent on record, at 8% below average, in early February, and it remained below the previous record for the rest of the month.
The oceans were missing an area of ice roughly the size of the United Kingdom last month, according to Copernicus (C3S), and the finding was not an anomaly in recent sea ice observations.
February marked the third consecutive month in which record low sea ice levels for the corresponding month were observed in the Arctic.
C3S reported that in the Antarctic, sea ice levels have rapidly declined in 2025 after appearing to recover to near-record levels in December 2024.
Last month, sea ice near the South Pole reached its fourth-lowest monthly extent, at 26% below average.
C3S said the daily sea ice extent in the Antarctic may have also reached its annual minimum toward the end of the month, which will be confirmed later in March; if confirmed, it would be the second-lowest annual minimum in the satellite record.
"February 2025 continues the streak of record or near-record temperatures observed throughout the last two years," said Samanatha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. "One of the consequences of a warmer world is melting sea ice, and the record or near-record low sea ice cover at both poles has pushed global sea ice cover to an all-time minimum."
The melting sea ice was recorded as global average temperatures rose 1.59°C (2.8°F) above the pre-industrial average last month, making it the third-warmest February on record.
In Europe, the temperatures that most exceeded averages were recorded last month in parts of Scandinavia, Iceland, and the Alps. Outside of Europe, "temperatures were most above average over large parts of the Arctic."
The low extent of sea ice will lead to "more solar heat absorbed by the darker oceans," and "faster warming," said Simon Oldridge, a climate campaigner.
The loss of sea ice can also lead to the collapse of ocean currents that are crucial for marine life to thrive.
C3S reported on the record-low sea ice levels as campaigners in the U.S. and around the world condemned recent anti-climate actions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump and the Republican Party, including the country's exit from the Paris climate agreement, the GOP's passing of a bill to end a federal program aimed at reducing planet-heating methane emissions, and Trump's push to fast-track fossil fuel projects—as scientists warn that new extractive projects have no place on a pathway to limiting planetary heating and avoiding its worst impacts.
"The environment does not care about politics," said public health expert Ali Khan. "Keep spewing greenhouse gases and face the consequences."
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2024 Still on Track to Be First Full Year That Breached 1.5°C
"No surprise at all, but still shocking news. Will temperatures drop below 1.5°C again? I have my doubts," said one climate scientist.
Dec 09, 2024
Data from the first 11 months of 2024 reaffirmed that the globe is set to pass a grim milestone this year, according to the European Union's earth observation program.
The E.U.'s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said in a report Monday that November 2024 was 1.62°C above the preindustrial level, making it the 16th month in a 17-month stretch during which global-average surface air temperature breached 1.5°C. November 2024 was the second-warmest November, after November of last year, according to C3S.
"At this point, it is effectively certain that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record and more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level," according to a Monday statement from C3S. With data for November in hand, the service estimates that global temperature is set to be 1.59°C above the pre-industrial level for 2024, up from 1.48°C last year.
C3S announced last month that 2024 was "virtually certain" to be the hottest year on record after October 2024 hit 1.65°C higher than preindustrial levels.
"This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever," said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S.
Under the 2015 Paris agreement, signatory countries pledged to reduce their global greenhouse gas emissions with the aim of keeping global temperature rise this century to 1.5ºC, well below 2°C above preindustrial levels. According to the United Nations, going above 1.5ºC on an annual or monthly basis doesn't constitute failure to reach the agreement's goal, which refers to temperature rise over decades—however, "breaches of 1.5°C for a month or a year are early signs of getting perilously close to exceeding the long-term limit, and serve as clarion calls for increasing ambition and accelerating action in this critical decade."
Additionally, a recent paper in the journal Nature warned of irreversible impacts from overshooting the 1.5ºC target, even temporarily.
Climate scientist and volcanologist Bill McGuire reacted to the news Monday, saying: "Average temperature for 2024 expected to be 1.60°C. A massive hike on 2023, which itself was the hottest year for probably 120,000 years. No surprise at all, but still shocking news. Will temperatures drop below 1.5°C again? I have my doubts."
The update comes on the heels of COP29, the most recent U.N. climate summit, which many climate campaigners viewed as a disappointment. During the summit, attendees sought to reach a climate financing agreement that would see rich, developed countries contribute money to help developing countries decarbonize and deal with the impacts of the climate emergency. The final dollar amount, according to critics, fell far short of what developing countries need.
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2024 'Virtually Certain' to Be Hottest Year on Record: EU Climate Agency
A new report contained "the bleakest news possible, especially with a climate denier U.S. president in office for the next four years," said one climate scientist.
Nov 07, 2024
A day after U.S. voters elected climate-denying Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race, soon ushering in an administration that is sure to expand fossil fuel drilling, the European Union's Earth observation agency announced that 2024 is "virtually certain" to be the hottest year on record and to hit a worrying temperature milestone.
The year is expected to be the first on record in which the temperature is more than 1.5°C hotter than before the Industrial Revolution, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The Paris climate agreement of 2015 urged countries to curb greenhouse gas emissions with the goal of limiting planetary heating to 1.5°C by the end of the century.
Over the past 12 months, said C3S, global temperatures were 1.6°C warmer than the yearly average from 1850-1900.
"The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year," said C3S.
Last month was the second-hottest October ever recorded, with temperatures 1.65°C higher than preindustrial levels. It was the 15th month in the past 16 to be hotter than 1.5°C over preindustrial temperatures.
While a single year above the 1.5°C mark does not necessarily indicate that the Paris climate goal is out of reach, C3S director Carlo Buontempo said the planet has "never had to cope with a climate as warm as the current one."
"This inevitably pushes our ability to respond to extreme events—and adapt to a warmer world—to the absolute limit," he told The Guardian.
Climate scientist Bill McGuire called the Copernicus report "the bleakest news possible, especially with a climate denier U.S. president in office for the next four years."
Trump has pledged to expand fossil fuel extraction and do away with climate regulations introduced by the Biden administration, telling oil executives he would do so if they contributed $1 billion to his campaign in what was described as a quid pro quo.
The C3S—which based its analysis on billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft, and weather stations—noted in its report that October saw numerous extreme weather events tied to the warming planet. Heavy rains led to severe flash flooding in Spain, killing more than 200 people. Above average precipitation was also seen in Norway, France, China, southern Brazil, and parts of Australia, while Florida faced Hurricane Milton just two weeks after Hurricane Helene killed more than 230 people.
The World Meteorological Organization last week announced that carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are accumulating faster than at any other time in human history, rising more than 10% in the last two decades.
"The most effective solution to address the climate challenges is a global commitment on emissions," Buontempo told The Guardian.
BBC journalist Navin Singh Khadka said on the news network that if the 1.5°C breach continues "in the long term, then we are warned there will be catastrophic consequences."
"In the meantime we're told this could be a temporary overshoot because of factors like El Niño, for instance, but even then... the [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report has warned us that there might be some irreversible impacts," said Khadka. "What are those irreversible impacts? Can we live with them? That's the question now."
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'Time for Urgent Action Is Right Now': Summer 2024 Was Hottest on Record
"If you keep doing the same thing, you cannot expect to get any different result," said the director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service. "Unless we limit greenhouse gases, we will only see an exacerbation of these temperatures."
Sep 06, 2024
Scientists with the European Union's climate service said Friday that Earth experienced its hottest summer on record for the second consecutive year in 2024 as unprecedented and deadly heatwaves scorched large swaths of the planet, intensifying the urgency of large-scale policy changes to phase out the fossil fuels that are driving temperatures to alarming new heights.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said the three-month period between June and August saw global-average temperatures that were 0.69°C, or 1.24°F, higher than the average summer temperatures seen from 1991 to 2020.
"During the past three months of 2024, the globe has experienced the hottest June and August, the hottest day on record, and the hottest boreal summer on record," said C3S deputy director Samantha Burgess. "This string of record temperatures is increasing the likelihood of 2024 being the hottest year on record."
"The temperature-related extreme events witnessed this summer will only become more intense, with more devastating consequences for people and the planet, unless we take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions," Burgess added.
Temperatures in Europe were 1.54°C above the 1991-2020 average, a record temperature surge that had deadly consequences in Greece, Italy, and other nations.
But The Washington Post's Sarah Kaplan noted that the consequences of the record-shattering summer heat "were felt by people on every continent, from world-class athletes competing in the Paris Olympics to refugees fleeing from wars."
She continued:
Wildfires fueled by heat and drought raged through the Brazilian Pantanal, a vital wetland known to store vast amounts of carbon. A turbocharged monsoon triggered landslides that killed hundreds of people in India's Kerala state. The Atlantic Ocean saw its earliest Category 5 hurricane on record, while deadly floods have wreaked havoc from Italy to Pakistan to Nigeria to China."
It was a summer of unrelenting humidity and heat too extreme for the human body to withstand. In June, at least 1,300 pilgrims visiting the Muslim holy city of Mecca died amid temperatures of 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another 125 people were reported dead in Mexico during a July streak of exceedingly hot nights that researchers say was made 200 times as likely because of climate change. And in the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, one of the world's northernmost inhabited areas, August temperatures soared more than 2.5 degrees Celsius (4.5 degrees Fahrenheit) above the previous record.
Carlo Buontempo, the director of C3S, told the Post that "if you keep doing the same thing, you cannot expect to get any different result."
"Unless we limit greenhouse gases," Buontempo added, "we will only see an exacerbation of these temperatures."
The original version of this article included inaccurate temperature conversions.
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Sunday Was Earth's Hottest Day on Record
"We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years," one expert said.
Jul 23, 2024
July 21 was Earth's hottest day on record, overtaking the record set last July during the
hottest year in millennia.
The European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) found that Sunday's average air surface temperature soared to 17.09°C , or 62.76°F, according to preliminary data. While that is only 0.1°C warmer than the previous record—set on July 6, 2023—it was nearly 0.3°C higher than the pre-2023 record, set at 16.8°C on August 13, 2016.
"What is truly staggering is how large the difference is between the temperature of the last 13 months and the previous temperature records," C3S Director Carlo Buontempo said in a statement. "We are now in truly uncharted territory and as the climate keeps warming, we are bound to see new records being broken in future months and years."
The news follows a year of shattered temperature records as El Niño combined with the climate emergency to heat air and ocean to levels well above average. While El Niño conditions ended in April, scientists still predict that 2024 could overtake 2023 as the hottest year on record.
As of June 2024, the past 13 months have all been the hottest of their kind on record. June 2024 was also the 12th month in a row to see its average temperature meet or surpass 1.5°C above preindustrial levels—the most ambitious temperature goal enshrined in the Paris agreement.
Scientists have warned that the only way to keep global temperatures from rising further is to rapidly phase out the use of oil, gas, and coal and transition to renewable energy.
"These recurring record-breaking temperatures are a scorching red flag, but it's not too late to reverse course."
Before Sunday, the last hottest day on record was July 6, 2023, which was also the fourth consecutive day to break that record. The previous record was set at 17.08°C, or 62.74°F, according to Copernicus. However, since the 2016 temperature record was first broken on July 3, 2023, 57 days in the past year have also surpassed it.
What's more, C3S found that the last 10 years have been the 10 years on record with the highest average daily temperatures.
"The difference in the highest daily average temperature between the lowest ranked of those 10 years (2015) and the previous record before 2023 (13 August 2016) was 0.2°C. The jump from the 2016 record to 2023/2024 is about 0.3°C, highlighting how substantial the warmth of 2023 and 2024," C3S said.
Record-breaking temperatures have also brought extreme weather.
On Sunday, Florida meteorologist Jeff Berardelli wrote on social media that "the most anomalously warm places were Antarctica and Western Canada where several hundred wildfires blaze, many out of control."
C3S also said that Sunday's record was in part driven by "much-above-average temperatures over large parts of Antarctica."
The warmest day on record also coincided with heatwaves in Russia, Europe, and the U.S., Reuters reported.
C3S predicted that temperatures would continue to rise in the short term.
"In the coming days, we are expecting the daily global average temperature to further increase and peak around 22 or 23 July 2024 and then go down, but with possible further fluctuations in the coming weeks," the agency said.
In the longer term, temperature trends will depend on whether policymakers can take ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and halt the destruction of natural carbon sinks.
"These recurring record-breaking temperatures are a scorching red flag, but it's not too late to reverse course," Oceana Campaign director Joseph Gordon said in a statement. "When you're on the path to destruction, the best thing you can do is turn around."
Gordon recommended one thing U.S. President Joe Biden in particular could do to stop runaway climate change.
"One of the most immediate and impactful ways to address greenhouse gas emissions is to prevent new offshore drilling in the United States," Gordon said. "Offshore drilling drives climate change throughout its entire process. President Biden must permanently protect our coasts from offshore drilling and move us toward a clean energy future."
An earlier version of this article misstated the difference between the new temperature record and the pre-2023 record.
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13 Months of Record-Smashing Heat Called 'Another Red Alert' for Humanity
"This alarming record underlines the need to urgently phase out fossil fuels, and to hugely increase climate finance," said one campaigner.
Jul 08, 2024
Scientists on Monday underscored the urgent need to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy following the publication of data from the European Union's climate change monitor showing that last month was the hottest June ever recorded and that 2024 is likely to be the planet's hottest year on record.
Each month since June 2023 has been the hottest since records have been kept, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said last week in its latest monthly bulletin.
According to the agency, June "was 1.50°C above the estimated June average for 1850-1900, the designated preindustrial reference period, making it the 12th consecutive month to reach or break the 1.5°C threshold."
"European temperatures were most above average over southeast regions and Turkey, but near or below average over western Europe, Iceland, and northwestern Russia," C3S noted. "Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over eastern Canada, the western United States and Mexico, Brazil, northern Siberia, the Middle East, northern Africa, and western Antarctica."
"Temperatures were below average over the eastern equatorial Pacific, indicating a developing La Niña, but air temperatures over the ocean remained at an unusually high level over many regions," the agency added.
C3S Director Carlo Buontempo said in a statement Monday that "even if this specific streak of extremes ends at some point, we are bound to see new records being broken as the climate continues to warm."
"This is inevitable unless we stop adding greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the oceans," he stressed.
In an interview with The Associated Press published Monday, C3S climate scientist Nicolas Julien called the new data "a stark warning that we are getting closer to this very important limit set by the Paris agreement."
"The global temperature continues to increase," he added. "It has at a rapid pace."
Zeke Hausfather, a researcher at the California-based nonprofit Berkeley Earth, told Reuters, "I now estimate that there is an approximately 95% chance that 2024 beats 2023 to be the warmest year since global surface temperature records began in the mid-1800s."
As Reuters reported Monday:
The changed climate has already unleashed disastrous consequences around the world in 2024. More than 1,000 people died in fierce heat during the Hajj pilgrimage last month. Heat deaths were recorded in New Dehli, which endured an unprecedentedly long heatwave, and amongst tourists in Greece.
"This is not good news at all," Aditi Mukherji, who co-authored the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, told The Guardian.
"We know that extreme events increase with every increment of global warming," she added, "and at 1.5°C, we witnessed some of the hottest extremes this year."
The Guardian surveyed hundreds of IPCC authors earlier this year. Three-quarters of them said they expect Earth to heat by at least 2.5°C by the end of this century. Half of the surveyed scientists expect temperatures to rise above 3°C by 2100.
"It is a crisis," said Mukherji, and one that has a clear solution, given that burning fossil fuels is the leading cause of global heating.
Antonia Juhasz, a senior researcher on fossil fuels at Human Rights Watch, told Nation of Change that "as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, heatwaves are becoming more common, and intense heatwaves are more frequent."
"We can break the cycle, we can make oil companies stop burning fossil fuels," she added.
Reacting to the latest C3S data, Amnesty International climate adviser Ann Harrison said on social media that "this alarming record underlines the need to urgently phase out fossil fuels, and to hugely increase climate finance."
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'Omen of the Future': Off-The-Charts Hot Oceans Scare Scientists
After 2023 was the hottest year in human history, experts warn that 2024 "has strong potential to be another record-breaking year."
Feb 27, 2024
While global policymakers continue to drag their feet on phasing out planet-heating fossil fuels, scientists around the world "are freaking out" about high ocean temperatures, as they told The New York Times in reporting published Tuesday.
A "super El Niño" has expectedly heated up the Pacific, but Times reporter David Gelles spoke with ocean experts from Miami to Cambridge to Sydney about record heat in the North Atlantic as well as conditions around the poles.
"The sea ice around the Antarctic is just not growing," said Matthew England, a University of New South Wales professor who studies ocean currents. "The temperature's just going off the charts. It's like an omen of the future."
Rob Larter, a marine geophysicist with the British Antarctic Survey who watches polar ice levels, told the paper that "we're used to having a fairly good handle on things. But the impression at the moment is that things have gone further and faster than we expected. That's an uncomfortable place as a scientist to be."
Last week, Jeff Berardelli, WFLA's chief meteorologist and climate specialist, also highlighted the warm North Atlantic and that "all signs are pointing to a busy hurricane season" later this year.
Noting that in the middle of this month, sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic were around 2°F higher than the 1990-2020 normal and nearly 3°F above the 1980s, Berardelli explained:
That may not sound like a lot, but consider this is averaged over the majority of the basin shown in the red outline in the image above. A deviation like that is unheard of... until now.
To put it into more relatable terms, considering what's been normal for the most recent 30 years, the statistical chance that any February day would be as warm as it is right now is 1-in-280,000. That's not a typo. This is according to University of Miami researcher Brian McNoldy...
And that 1-in-280,000 is compared against a recent climate, which had already been warmed substantially by climate change. If you tried to compare it against a climate considered normal around the year 1900, the math would become nonsensical. Meaning an occurrence like this simply would not be possible.
McNoldy also stressed the shocking nature of current conditions to the Times, telling Gelles that "the North Atlantic has been record-breakingly warm for almost a year now... It's just astonishing. Like, it doesn't seem real."
The new comments from McNoldy and other scientists come on the heels of various institutions and experts worldwide recently confirming that 2023 was the hottest year in human history. Research also showed that it was the warmest year on record for the oceans, which capture about 91% of excess heat from greenhouse gases.
As Common Dreams reported last month, Adam Scaife, a principal fellow at the United Kingdom's Met Office, said that "it is striking that the temperature record for 2023 has broken the previous record set in 2016 by so much because the main effect of the current El Niño will come in 2024."
That's the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, a climate phenomenon that also has a cool phase called La Niña expected later this year. Still, Scaife warned that "the Met Office's 2024 temperature forecast shows this year has strong potential to be another record-breaking year."
Throughout the record-shattering 2023, experts also expressed alarm. After an April study showed that the ocean is heating up faster than previously thought, the BBC revealed that some scientists declined to speak about it on the record, reporting that "one spoke of being 'extremely worried and completely stressed.'"
In July, when a buoy roughly 40 miles south of Miami recorded a sea surface temperature of 101.1°F just after a "100% coral mortality" event at a restoration site, Florida State University associate professor Mariana Fuentes told NPR that "if you have several species that are being impacted at the same time by an increase in temperature, there's going to be a general collapse of the whole ecosystem."
The following month, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that the average daily global ocean surface temperature hit 69.7°F, and deputy director Samantha Burgess said, "The fact that we've seen the record now makes me nervous about how much warmer the ocean may get between now and next March."
"The more we burn fossil fuels, the more excess heat will be taken out by the oceans, which means the longer it will take to stabilize them and get them back to where they were," Burgess emphasized at the time.
Last year ended with a United Nations climate summit that scientists called "a tragedy for the planet," because the final deal out of the conference—led by an Emirati oil CEO—did not demand a global phaseout of fossil fuels.
Azerbaijan, which is set to host this year's U.N. conference in November, has similarly selected a former fossil fuel executive to lead the event. The country also plans to increase its gas production by a third during the next decade.
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Record January Heat Caps 'Disturbing' 12-Month Stretch Above 1.5°C
"Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing," one expert said.
Feb 08, 2024
The first month of 2024 was the hottest January on record, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts announced Thursday.
That makes January the eighth month in a row to see its average surface air temperature surpass historic temperatures for that month and the 12th month in a row to see it rise past 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. January therefore caps the first 12-month period in which the average temperature surpassed the 1.5°C target enshrined in the Paris agreement.
"2024 starts with another record-breaking month—not only is it the warmest January on record, but we have also just experienced a 12-month period of more than 1.5°C above the preindustrial reference period," Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) deputy director Samantha Burgess said in a statement. "Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing."
"After all, if you stick your finger in a light socket and get shocked, it's bad news, sure, but what did you expect?"
The average air surface temperature last month rose to 13.14°C, 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 January average and 1.66°C above the preindustrial January average. It was also 0.12°C above the previous record-warm January, in 2020.
January's temperature means that the past 12 months, from February 2023 to January 2024, were the warmest on record, at 0.64°C above average for 1991-2020 and 1.52°C above the preindustrial average. On a regional level, eastern Canada, north-western Africa, the Middle East, and central Asia all saw hotter-than-average Januaries.
The average global sea surface temperature at 60°S-60°N also broke records for January at 20.97°C, 0.26°C above the previous warmest January temperature in 2016. C3S also noted that the sea surface temperature between 60°S-60°N continued to climb in early February, breaking the previous all-time record set in August of last year.
2023 was the hottest year both on record and in around 125,000 years of history due primarily to the climate crisis driven by deforestation and the burning of fossil fuels. Temperatures were spiked further by the emergence of a warming El Niño weather pattern. Now, January has capped off a new 12-month period of historic weather.
"It is a significant milestone to see the global mean temperature for a 12-month period exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures for the first time," University of Oxford atmospheric physicist Matt Patterson told Reuters.
"1.5°C is so dead."
Even a year above 1.5°C does not mean the Paris target has been permanently breached, since it refers to averages over decades. Scientists predict a longer-term breach could happen between 2030 and the early 2050s.
Still, former Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change chair Bob Watson told BBC Radio 4's "Today" program that the last 12 months "far exceeds anything that is acceptable."
"Look what's happened this year with only 1.5°C," Watson said, "we've seen floods, we've seen droughts, we've seen heatwaves and wildfires all over the world."
Despite decades of warnings from climate scientists, the burning of fossil fuels released record levels of carbon pollution into the atmosphere in 2023, according to the Global Carbon Project.
Texas A&M University climate scientist Andrew Dessler told The Washington Post that a year above 1.5°C was both "disturbing and not disturbing."
"After all, if you stick your finger in a light socket and get shocked, it's bad news, sure, but what did you expect?" Dessler asked.
The United Nations says that world leaders must curb emissions by 42% by 2030 to keep the 1.5°C goal alive, though some scientists say it is now likely out of reach. That doesn't mean acting quickly to phase out oil, gas, and coal won't make a difference, however.
"1.5°C is so dead," NASA climate scientist Peter Kalmus said on social media. "But remember: Every extra bit of fossil fuel burnt makes the planet a little irreversibly hotter making all impacts worse. Arbitrary thresholds are not as important as ending the cause of this nightmare: the fossil fuel industry."
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2023 Destroys Global Heat Record as Fossil Fuel Emissions Boil the Planet
"How many more records does it take before we phase out fossil fuels and deal with it?" asked one climate campaigner.
Jan 09, 2024
European scientists officially confirmed Tuesday that 2023 was the hottest year on record, surpassing 2016 by a huge margin as greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels continue to drive global temperatures to terrifying new highs.
The conclusion from the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service was hardly unexpected given the unparalleled heatwaves that gripped large swaths of the planet last year, ushering in what the head of the United Nations called "the era of global boiling."
Last year's global average temperature was 14.98°C, 0.17°C warmer than 2016, 0.60°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average, and 1.48°C warmer than the 1850-1900 pre-industrial level, according to Copernicus.
"2023 was an exceptional year with climate records tumbling like dominoes," said Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess. "Not only is 2023 the warmest year on record, it is also the first year with all days over 1°C warmer than the pre-industrial period. Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years."
Liz Bentley, chief executive of the U.K.'s Royal Meteorological Society told CNN on Tuesday that after last year's record-shattering summer, scientists predicted that global warming would reach around 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels.
That projection, Bentley said, has been "annihilated" by the new Copernicus data, which shows that planetary warming is perilously close to the Paris accord's 1.5°C target.
"If you look at climate projections, when we expect to see temperature changes of close to 1.5°C, indeed it has come sooner than many would have expected," Bentley added. "We've definitely seen an acceleration towards that, rather than it being a kind of linear progression. It feels like it's rising much more exponentially."
Scientists expect 2024 to be even hotter than last year, raising the stakes for badly lagging global efforts to rein in planet-warming fossil fuel production, which in 2023 hit record levels in the United States—the largest historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.
"How many more records does it take before we phase out fossil fuels and deal with it?" asked climate campaigner Mike Hudema.
Copernicus director Carlo Buontempo said in a statement Tuesday that "the extremes we have observed over the last few months provide a dramatic testimony of how far we now are from the climate in which our civilization developed."
"This has profound consequences for the Paris Agreement and all human endeavors," said Buontempo. "If we want to successfully manage our climate risk portfolio, we need to urgently decarbonize our economy whilst using climate data and knowledge to prepare for the future."
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