Fossil fuel phaseout urgent as 1.5°C target likely to be passed by 2030

A new report by the Copernicus Climate Change Service shows that 2025 was the third hottest year on record, marking the first time that a three-year period has exceeded the 1.5°C limit. Experts warn that based on the current rate of warming, the 1.5°C heating threshold will likely be breached by the end of 2030, or over a decade earlier than predicted.

The report notes that air temperature over global land areas was second warmest, while the Antarctic saw its warmest annual temperature on record. Temperature rise in 2025 was mainly due to “the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, from continued emissions and reduced uptake of carbon dioxide by natural sinks”–underscoring the urgent need for a fossil fuel phaseout.

Just two weeks into 2026, wildfires ravaged parts of Australia and Argentina, and South Africa, a snowstorm brought disruption in Europe, and floodwaters inundated Indonesia.

Savio Carvalho, 350.org Managing Director for Campaigns and Networks, said:

“Another year in the top three hottest on record, and communities everywhere are feeling it. Extreme weather isn’t rare anymore—it’s driving up food prices, insurance premiums, water shortages, and upending daily life across the globe.

Governments know fossil fuels are the cause of climate breakdown, yet they keep stalling on the transition. We don’t have the luxury of wasting time or taking side paths – we are running out of time. We need to do what’s right now: a global phase out of fossil fuels is urgent. We already have the renewable energy solutions we need–what’s missing is the political will. We can prevent the worst if we act now.”

Fenton Lutunatabua, 350.org Program Manager Pacific & Caribbean, said:

“We cannot afford to let the 1.5 degree target slip away. We literally cannot afford the financial cost of it. In the Pacific, climate disasters are costing us billions of dollars in recovery and rebuilding. A world beyond 1.5 degrees would devastate our resources even more. The cost of this trajectory extends beyond finances, it threatens the very existence of our people. Entire villages in Fiji are being uprooted and relocated, losing connection to traditional lands and fishing grounds. Atoll nations like Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands are grappling with both adaptation and addressing the reality of potential forced migration. To give up on 1.5 degrees is to say that any of these realities are acceptable. Every fraction of a degree we can save is a chance at a livable future for our people. We can only do that by moving beyond fossil fuels as rapidly as possible.”

Meanwhile, Indonesia experienced some of the worst climate-fueled disasters in 2025. More than 1,100 lives were lost in Sumatra after a rare tropical cyclone triggered flash floods, while 18 were killed in Bali’s worst flooding in decades. Bali flood victims, including a 350.org organizer, are suing the Indonesian government for damages, following an International Court of Justice ruling on state accountability for climate harms.

Suriadi Darmoko, 350.org Organizer and plaintiff in Bali climate lawsuit, said:

“Entire communities are still buried in mud. Thousands of families are still grieving and struggling to have their basic needs met. We refuse to be treated as mere climate disaster victims. Our leaders have kept the world hooked on fossil fuels even as they knew decades ago it would lead to such tragedies. The Indonesian government must honour its commitments to limit temperature rise below 1.5 C and take immediate action to phase out fossil fuels. Science and justice is on our side — we’ll make sure that big polluters pay for climate devastation.”