October, 12 2020, 12:00am EDT
WASHINGTON
With less than a month to go in the election, this past week showed that Republicans up and down the ballot are making their false claims about the Green New Deal and attacks on climate action a centerpiece of their closing argument. A review of publicly available polling data shows that these attacks, as well as attacks on Vice President Joe Biden's plan to build an equitable, clean energy future are falling flat with voters.
"Deciding to close the election with false attacks on the Green New Deal and other pro-climate action policies is a big mistake for Republicans," said Climate Power 2020 Executive Director Lori Lodes. "In reality, voters overwhelmingly support bold government action on climate and are more likely to back candidates who support it. In Trump's must-win state of Pennsylvania, for example, data shows a debate over fracking and climate change significantly boosted Biden's standing with voters. Voters see through Republicans' bizarre lies about banning cars, airplanes, and hamburgers, and they are punishing Trump and Republicans for their COVID and climate denial."
A new comprehensive analysis of the Green New Deal and pro-climate policies by Data for Progress found a plurality of voters have a favorable impression of the Green New Deal when asked directly. A plurality of voters also think the Green New Deal is a good idea. Support among Democrats for the policy is more intense than opposition among Republicans; independents are split almost evenly. As Data for Progress concluded, "the policy is not as big of a boogeyman as pundits make it out to be."
Republicans Go On the Attack on the Green New Deal; Democrats Tout Climate, Clean Energy and Conservation
In recent interviews, at events on the campaign trail, and during the presidential and vice-presidential debates, both Trump and Pence have spent considerable time leveling false and misleading attacks on the Green New Deal and other pro-climate policies. For instance, in the 90 minute vice-presidential debate, Pence mentioned the "Green New Deal" 15 times. The attacks are not limited to the top of the ticket. In recent weeks across the Senate battlefield, Republican candidates and outside groups have run anti-Green New Deal ads in Alaska, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, Iowa, North Carolina, Maine, and Georgia.
Despite these false attacks, the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average shows Vice President Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris are currently leading in all of the following states: Pennsylvania (+7.1), Ohio (+0.6), Florida (+3.7), Wisconsin (+5.5), North Carolina (+1.4), Michigan (+6.7), Minnesota (+9.4), Iowa (+1.2), Arizona (+2.7), Nevada (+6.0), New Hampshire (+9.0), and Colorado (+10.0).
In addition, the 538 forecast currently predicts a victory for Biden and Harris in Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Maine, and Nebraska's 2nd District.
Pro-climate candidates and outside groups understand climate, clean energy, and conservation are winning issues, and they are making it a key part of their advertising and voter contact strategies in the final month across the Senate battleground.
In the fight for the Senate, 538 predicts a 68% chance of voters returning a pro-climate Democratic majority. In individual races, pro-climate Democrats remain favored to win or be competitive across the battleground. As the New York Times reported, Republicans are on defense and spending tens of millions of dollars in deep-red states such as South Carolina and Kansas.
Climate and Fracking Debate Boosts Biden in Pennsylvania, While Green New Deal Attacks Fall Short
Late August polls conducted by CBS News and Climate Power 2020 and League of Conservation Voters both show the conventional wisdom around fracking is no longer true. The Climate Power 2020 poll found that not only are Pennsylvania voters supportive of climate action and additional regulations on fracking, engaging in a debate around fracking and climate clearly helped Joe Biden, strengthening his favorability rating and increasing his lead over President Donald Trump in the state.
In that survey, Biden led Trump by a margin of 8 percentage points (50%/42%). Notably, that advantage increased to a 15-point lead when the debate was centered around fracking, clean energy, and climate change -- dispelling the conventional belief that a focus on fracking will pull down support for Democrats and Biden in the state.
The messages presented to voters in the survey closely mirror the frequent attacks leveled against Biden's plan for clean energy investments, including negative messaging on the Green New Deal and socialism, and false claims that Biden's plan will cost Pennsylvania 600,000 jobs. You can see the exact language on fracking and the Green New Deal tested in this memo.
Another key finding from the poll was that Keystone State voters, including those in Southwestern Pennsylvania, strongly support bold action on climate change, investments in clean energy infrastructure, and stronger regulations on the fracking industry. By a 61-30 margin, voters in the Pittsburgh DMA support placing stronger regulations on oil and gas fracking, such as increasing the minimum distance between fracking sites and homes and requiring the disclosure of all chemicals used in fracking.
Pennsylvania Voters also overwhelmingly favor two policies that form the foundation of Biden's climate plan:
- 74% support transitioning the country to 100% clean electricity by 2035 and 73% support a clean energy economy by 2050.
- 71% favor investing $2 trillion over the next four years to build clean energy infrastructure.
Battleground Voters Strongly Support Bold Action on Climate
Biden has pledged to achieve 100% clean electricity by 2035. Late September surveys conducted by Data for Progress found strong support for this policy in key presidential and Senate battlegrounds:
- In Arizona, 58% of likely voters, including 54% of independents, support this goal.
- In Iowa, 55% of likely voters, including 53% of independents, support this goal.
- In Maine, 65% of likely voters, including 61% of independents, support this goal.
- In South Carolina, 52% of likely voters, including 57% of independents, support this goal.
Data for Progress surveys conducted in August in Arizona, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina also found strong support for bold action on climate.
By large margins, voters were more likely to support a candidate backing 100% clean electricity by 2035:
- Arizona: 54-26
- Iowa: 53-26
- Maine: 57-23
- North Carolina: 50-29
Similarly, voters in these battleground states were also more likely to support a candidate backing $2 trillion in clean energy infrastructure:
- Arizona: 57-26
- Iowa: 57-24
- Maine: 55-26
- North Carolina: 53-30
When Biden was named and the Republican counterattack was presented, voters still supported the Biden clean energy investment plan by substantial margins:
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Climate Power 2020 is putting the Trump administration on defense every single day for ignoring experts, refusing to believe in science, surrendering our government to big oil executives, and gutting public health protections, all at the expense of future generations. The 2020 presidential election is the defining moment for how our nation addresses the climate crisis--our leaders must be emboldened to take immediate action on climate change and to build a just and equitable economy. The time to act is now. Learn more: climatepower2020.org
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With Trump in Office, 'Corruption' Becomes Key Issue for Midterm Voters
Trump won the 2024 election after not only campaigning on a slew of right-wing policies but also making clear that he would serve the interests of the climate-wrecking fossil fuel industry and Big Tech. For his latest inauguration, the president surrounded himself with some of the richest people on the planet—the event was dubbed "a coronation of our country's descent into oligarchy."
The president has spent the past two years enriching himself—annual disclosures from July show he pocketed at least $2.2 billion during his first year back in the White House—as well as relatives and rich allies, including by waging an illegal war on Iran that has boosted the profits of fossil fuel companies, in which he's invested, while everyday Americans feel the pain at the pump.
According to the new Harris poll, conducted for The Guardian October 22-24, "The rising cost of living is still expected to drive the election, with 36% of voters saying it is the single most important issue to how they plan to vote in the midterms."
However, it is followed by government corruption, at 12%. After that are immigration (9%), healthcare (7%), and taxes (5%).
Democrats running for office this cycle have focused heavily on affordability as they try to win majorities in Congress, but they've also pledged that if they succeed, they'll "hold the crooks accountable," and even teased possible impeachments.
However, the new polling shows that it's not just Democratic voters who are concerned about corruption. The newspaper reported:
Nearly nine out of 10 Americans said that government corruption... defined as elected officials putting their own or their donors' financial interests ahead of the public's, is a problem, according to the survey.
Three-quarters (76%) of voters said that elected officials care more about enriching themselves than improving the economy for ordinary people. Voters were more likely to say that government corruption (65%) is more concerning than corporate power (29%). Just under 10% said that neither concerns them.
The Harris poll is not an outlier. The Not Above the Law coalition—made up of more than 150 organizations focused on protecting democracy and fighting for the rule of law—noted Friday that "voters rank government corruption among their top concerns, believe Trump puts his own interests ahead of the country, and connect his self-dealing directly to the costs hitting their budgets. That alarm crosses party lines, with Republicans, independents, and even Trump's own voters rejecting this administration’s corruption."
The coalition highlighted various recent surveys in a statement:
- Corruption tops the list, alongside grocery prices. In the CNBC All-America Economic Survey (October 14-18), 36% of registered voters named government corruption as their top issue, narrowly ahead of food costs at 34%, with protecting democracy and gas prices each at 23%.
- Six in 10 voters are extremely concerned. The Fox News Poll (October 9-12) found government corruption led all voter concerns, with 60% extremely concerned, ahead of inflation (58%) and gas prices (50%).
- Perceived corruption is at a record high. According to Gallup (May 1-June 10), a record 89% of Americans say government corruption is widespread, the highest level in 20 years and a 10-point jump from last year.
There was also a Financial Times/Focaldata poll from October 16-18, which found that 69% of US voters are concerned about corruption, self-dealing, or conflicts of interest in the current administration.
"When a family reads a story about presidential crypto profits at the same time as they are deciding whether they should put off their expensive doctor's appointment, they see that the system is working for someone—just not for them," Columbia Business School professor Jeremy Ney told the Financial Times.
"Voters can tolerate some economic pain, as long as they believe it is shared," added the professor. "But when that pain only flows in one direction, discontent boils to the surface."
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