New Letter Calls on CFTC to Investigate Suspicious Bets on Iran Attack

Public Citizen sent a letter today calling upon the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to investigate highly suspicious bets placed on the outcome of the recent American-Israeli military assault on Iran and the death of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Using platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, certain users have been able to make hundreds of thousands of dollars on political betting, specifically pertaining to the American-Israeli war on Iran. The timing of the bets has raised suspicion as to whether or not the bettors have inside information, as some of the bets were made mere hours before the U.S. strikes began.

The letter poses various questions on the connection between the political gambling and the military attacks on Iran:

• Insider Trading: Who placed these accurate and very substantial bets on the prediction market platforms moments before the actual attacks on Iran occurred?
  
• Unauthorized Disclosure of Confidential Government Information: Who within the Trump and Netanyahu administrations were privy to the timing and goals of the American-Israeli attacks?
  
• Political Betting: Given that some governmental officials do indeed have access to reliable non-public information on likely outcomes of political events, is it prudent to allow betting on such outcomes?
  
• Public Interest: Might some government officials manipulate public policies based on self-enrichment on prediction market platforms rather than based on the public interest?

“Allowing prediction market platforms to bet on virtually anything, any time is a recipe for disaster,” said Craig Holman, Public Citizen’s government affairs lobbyist. “The American people should not have to wonder whether government officials are exploiting their access to classified information to make a quick buck. The CFTC must act swiftly to regulate platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket in order to protect the public.”