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With violent rhetoric targeting Obama beginning to spread on fringe platforms, fanned by Trump’s and Gabbard’s posts, we risk further normalizing political violence which is already on the rise.
On July 18, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard made a post on Twitter alleging “the most powerful people in the Obama administration,” including former President Barack Obama, were involved in a “years-long coup” and a “treasonous conspiracy” against Donald Trump. Her post quickly went viral, amassing over 13 million views over the weekend, and galvanized the online fringe to fantasize about violence against their political enemies. Trump fanned Gabbard’s flames, sharing a racist AI-generated video of Obama being arrested on Truth Social, which Trump owns.
Major news stories generally act as flashpoints for extremists online to ramp up their spread of hatred and advocating for violence. This time was no different, as extremists, clearly inspired by Trump and Gabbard’s posts, were given new reasons to target their long-time nemesis, former President Obama. The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism’s (GPAHE) research on unmoderated platforms like Truth Social, Gab, and Telegram, which are frequently used to spew hatred and share violent political fantasies, found that users directed racist comments at Barack Obama, and his wife Michelle, and dreamt of political violence, suggesting Obama should face a firing squad or public execution by hanging, a crude reference to America’s dark history of racist mobs lynching Black people.
On Truth Social, comments made between July 17 and July 20 targeting Obama as treasonous and deserving of either imprisonment or execution rose from 3 to 36, an 1,100% increase, including a high of 56 comments on July 19, reflecting a frightening 1,767% increase. Gabbard’s post enraged Trump supporters who were quick to call for a military tribunal against Obama, demanding that Attorney General Pam Bondi “get them all now and don’t waste another day… The punishment for Treason is Hanging,” and that Obama and his former cabinet “should all [be] put up against a wall for a firing squad.” One user expressed glee at the possibility of Obama being “prosecuted for the death penalty,” saying “I’m so happy finally accountability for that corrupt piece of dog sh*t.” Another called for “public trials and public executions” against former members of the Obama administration, saying “our enemies are from within not foreign,” sharing a similar remark from Vice President JD Vance, who in a February address to European leaders warned them of “the threat from within.”
User “zennia” on Truth Social calls for Obama and his former administration to face “public trials and public executions” (Source: Truth Social)
On Gab, a platform similar to Twitter, comments made between July 17 and July 20 targeting Obama as treasonous and deserving of either imprisonment or execution rose from 9 to 48, representing a 433% increase. Users on Gab responded to Gabbard’s allegations by further accusing “commie Jews and black democrats” of “kill[ing] the American elections system.” Others exclaimed they weren’t satisfied with an arrest, saying “Obama should be prosecuted for treason, all asset ceases, and both him and Mooochelle deported to Tanzania,” but would “settle for a firing squad of all on [pay-per-view].” In the same comment, the user accuses Obama of being a “Radical Islamic Terrorist Sympathizer” whose goal was to transform America “into a socialist black terrorist sh*t-hole.” Users called for Obama to be lynched, writing, “All you need is some rope and a little wood.” Others wanted to take justice into their own hands, including one user who claimed, “I WILL DESTROY AND JAIL ALL OF THE FAKE NEWS MSM ALL CRIMINAL POLITICAL HACKS AND ALL DEEP STATE PLAYERS WILL BE TRIED AND EXCUTED!!!!!!”
A racist user on Gab accuses “commie Jews and black democrats” of trying “to kill the American elections (sic) system” (Source: Gab)
On Telegram, comments made between July 17 and July 20 targeting Obama as treasonous and deserving of either imprisonment or death rose from 0 to 12. A manual review by GPAHE of private Telegram groups not immediately accessible by scraping revealed numerous other similar posts. Telegram channels, including ones associating themselves with the conspiratorial QAnon movement, were excited about the prospect of Obama being convicted of treason, which would lead to him facing “the rest of his life in federal prison or the death penalty.” Other chat groups on Telegram, which associate themselves with far-right influencers such as Catturd and extremist groups like the white supremacist Proud Boys, had several users calling to hang Obama (“he should swing,” “let’s see him swing on national TV”), including calls to “hang them all” and “have a huge fireworks exhibition,” while others fantasized about “DOZENS of executions,” saying “MAKE PUBLIC HANGINGS GREAT AGAIN,” a reference to Trump’s motto, “Make America Great Again.”
One user on a Telegram chat group calls for multiple executions, invoking a new slogan based on Trump’s branding, “MAKE PUBLIC HANGINGS GREAT AGAIN!” (Source: Telegram)
Trump has long threatened his political opponents with persecution, dating back to his first election campaign against Hillary Clinton when calls to “lock her up” ran rampant at his rallies (Clinton was never charged with any crime). He’s since continued his assault on democracy by targeting judges who’ve ruled against him, and now democrats such as Obama and Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), who Trump said should go to prison. Trump’s targeting of the judiciary has already led to judges experiencing growing, targeted threats against themselves and their families. And there has been other horrific political violence. In June, a Christian nationalist assassinated Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman (DFL-34B) and her husband, seemingly with political motivations. With violent rhetoric targeting Obama beginning to spread on fringe platforms, fueled by Trump’s and Gabbard’s posts, we risk further normalizing political violence which is already on the rise.
GPAHE’s research regularly reveals spikes in online bigoted and violent rhetoric whenever the president targets people with his online posts. The combination of Director Gabbard and President Trump’s conspiracy-laden and racist posts not only inflamed extremists, but further normalized language, racism, and other ideas that are completely unacceptable in a thriving democracy. We, as a nation, cannot contribute to this normalization by staying silent.
Online discussion of potential violence has been on the rise over the past month, as it was ahead of the 2020 election.
Recent violent incidents at a Democratic National Committee office in Arizona and ballot boxes in the Pacific Northwest have been accompanied by rising online discussion of potential political violence following the November 5 elections, with people in right-wing forums ramping up the spread of baseless claims that Democrats will "steal" the presidential election and threatening to help Republican nominee Donald Trump take power by force.
That's according to a study published this week by the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE), which warns the group is "seeing the same warning signs of political violence based on election denialism combined with violent language across fringe platforms that we saw in the weeks before the 2020 election and before the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the Capitol."
At the messaging platform Telegram, violent rhetoric related to denying the results of an election that hadn't even taken place yet rose by 317% over the course of October 2020, and GPAHE found an identical trend this past month.
Users have threatened to "shoot to kill any illegal voters," apparently referring to the supposed scourge of illegal voting by non-citizens that Republicans including Trump and U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) have vowed to defeat, despite the lack of evidence that such a problem exists. A Telegram group frequented by members of the Minnesota Proud Boys have called for "patriots" to "take action" and attend a protest at the Minnesota state Capitol on November 2.
On other platforms, GPAHE co-founder Heidi Beirich told The Guardian on Thursday, the numbers of political violence threats "have been lower so far this year, but they are quickly rising as we approach Election Day."
On Gab in 2020, violent election rhetoric rose 462% during October and shot up "a staggering 8,309% the week of the election," said GPAHE. This month, the rhetoric has gone up by about 105%, with users saying people engaged in "election fraud"—a vanishingly rare occurrence—should face "public executions."
"The military needs to be brought in," at least one user wrote this month, echoing Trump's statement that an "enemy within on Election Day "should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military."
"The Trump campaign, its surrogates, or right-wing sympathizers could invite unrest, threats, or violence to try putting their collective thumb on the scales at key decision points."
Beirich told The Guardian that GPAHE is also seeing "posts targeting election workers with violence, a sign that real world activity could escalate."
The report was released as authorities investigate two incidents in Vancouver, Washington and Portland, Oregon in which devices were used to set ballot boxes on fire, resulting in damage to hundreds of ballots cast by early voters. Officials have linked the alleged arson acts to an incident on October 8 in which a suspicious device was found in a ballot drop box.
A man named Jeffrey Michael Kelly was also arrested last week for shooting at the Democratic National Committee office in Tempe, Arizona. Authorities found 120 guns, 250,000 rounds of ammunition, and other weapons at his home, and said he was likely planning to commit a "mass casualty event" ahead of the election.
Those incidents and the memory of the violent riot on January 6, 2021, in which Trump urged thousands of his supporters to descend on the U.S. Capitol to stop Congress from certifying the 2020 election results, are likely contributing to rising fears among voters about violence after next week's election. About 4 in 10 voters told The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research this week that they are "extremely" or "very" concerned about violence related to election denial.
In an analysis of political violence risks in the U.S. on Tuesday, the International Crisis Group noted that current conditions in the country may lower the chances of violent attacks related to election denial compared to 2020.
The prosecution of leaders of the January 6 insurrection and investigations into groups involved have "dented these groups' capacity," wrote program director Michael Wahid Hanna.
President Joe Biden has also lowered the risk of Trump challenging a potential election loss the way he did in 2020, when he and his allies urged "fake electors" in seven states to falsely declare him the winner, among other efforts. Biden signed the Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act, which includes new rules for how Congress tallies electors chosen by each state and "raises the bar for any objection" to the election results, wrote Hanna.
However, added Hanna, "Trump himself remains a major risk factor" for violence after the election:
The Trump campaign, its surrogates, or right-wing sympathizers could invite unrest, threats, or violence to try putting their collective thumb on the scales at key decision points. Local officials told not to certify tallies and battleground-state Republican state legislatures urged to appoint 'faithless' electors could be subject to personal threats or rowdy demonstrations designed to show that 'the people' support Trump's preferred course of action. Later, Republican lawmakers in Congress could be intimidated in comparable ways. Democrats, who would presumably fight an effort of this sort at every stage in court, could be exposed to similar or worse. Any anti-Trump street protests, meanwhile, could very well be met with counter-demonstrations including far-right elements, which could lead to clashes, with the risk of deadly violence rising at each new phase of legal maneuvering.
With many in the Republican Party relentlessly transmitting the message that "its candidate cannot lose unless the other side cheats," wrote Hanna, the risk of political violence after the election can't be ignored.
"Responsible actors with Trump's ear should prevail upon him to stick to the rules," he wrote, "Election boards, state legislators, members of Congress, and judges will need to do the same: The country's electoral laws are in better shape than they were four years ago, but the reforms will only matter if the country's institutions adhere to them in good faith."
A relatively new think tank "filled with Trump loyalists and insiders" has tried to avoid "the kind of firestorm that has engulfed the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025" while crafting its competing agenda.
While critics of former U.S. President Donald Trump continue to sound the alarm over Project 2025 and its potential implementation if the Republican nominee returns to the White House, a rival right-wing policy agenda has received far less national attention.
The well-publicized initiative, officially called the 2025 Presidential Transition Project, includes personnel recruitment, training, a 180-day playbook, and a policy agenda that is over 900 pages. Project 2025 is spearheaded by the Heritage Foundation, which has been locked in a "shadow war" with the America First Policy Institute (AFPI).
The Global Project Against Hate and Extremism (GPAHE) last year released a robust takedown of Project 2025, calling it a "far-right playbook for American authoritarianism." Since then, the group has published periodic updates about the Heritage-led effort to influence the policy and government employees under the next GOP president.
Wednesday's edition has a section on AFPI—or as GPAHE called it, "the Other Project 2025."
"Founded in 2021 by former Trump administration officials Linda McMahon, Larry Kudlow, and Brooke Rollins, AFPI has positioned itself as a formidable rival to the long-established Heritage Foundation, creating a notable divide in conservative policymaking spheres," GPAHE explained. "This conflict stems from both ideological differences and personal rivalries."
Although Heritage has been around for over half a century, GPAHE continued, "it has become a hub for younger, more ardent supporters of the MAGA movement," while "AFPI is generally seen as more sympathetic to the pre-Trump conservative consensus."
As Democrats—including the party's presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz—have campaigned against Project 2025, Trump has tried to distance himself from it, even though at least 140 people who worked in his first administration, including six former Cabinet secretaries, have been involved with the project.
So far, AFPI, a nonprofit that does not disclose its donors and cannot endorse political candidates, "has sought to avoid public attention—or the kind of firestorm that has engulfed the Heritage Foundation's Project 2025," Politico reported Thursday. However, like the widely known initiative, the more covert one has clear ties to Trump.
AFPI is "filled with Trump loyalists and insiders" and "was blessed by Trump before it was founded in 2021," according to Politico. While the think tank said in a statement that it "does not speak on behalf of any officeholder or campaign," the outlet pointed out that "Trump has hosted fundraisers for AFPI at his Mar-a-Lago club, his PAC Save America donated to the group, and his first major speech in Washington since leaving the White House was at an AFPI event."
Additionally, Politico noted, "its CEO, Brooke Rollins, has had a close relationship with Trump for years and has discussed the think tank's transition plans with him, according to two people familiar with the meeting; this month, the former president named the group's board chair, Linda McMahon, to co-lead the official transition team."
Other key leaders on Trump's transition team include his running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio); his eldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump; former Hawaii Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard; and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a conspiracy theorist who just suspended his Independent White House run and endorsed the GOP nominee.
"AFPI is not becoming the transition," an unnamed source reportedly familiar with the Trump campaign's transition prep told Politico. "But by virtue of how they are situated and that we are in a very late timeline for this work, AFPI and the transition may be a distinction without a difference."
GPAHE highlighted that while the rivals have some "differing approaches to key issues like economic policy, foreign relations, and the role of government," there is also overlap. Specifically, the group detailed, "AFPI's policy document, while more concise at 250 pages compared to Project 2025's 900 pages, outlines similar priorities in energy and environmental policy."
One analysis from earlier this month shows that if the Project 2025 energy policies were imposed, climate-wrecking pollution would surge 2.7 billion metric tons by 2030 and cause there to be 1.7 million fewer jobs in that year, compared to the current trajectory. There have also been scathing critiques of its education, healthcare, immigration, and tax policies—other areas where there are some similarities with AFPI.
The AFPI agenda, as Politico summarized, "focuses on deregulation of the federal government, greater rights for religious groups, and an aggressive crackdown on crime, among other issues. It supports greater oil and gas production, the completion of the border wall, and the limitation of federal spending. It has also expressed support for declaring Antifa a domestic terrorist group and making Trump's tax cut legislation permanent."
Trump and Republican lawmakers have openly campaigned on extending reductions from their Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 if elected in November—even though the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said in May that doing so would add $4.6 trillion to the national deficit.
In response to the CBO findings, Senate Finance Committee Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) said that "the Republican tax plan is to double down on Trump's handouts to corporations and the wealthy, run the deficit into the stratosphere, and make it impossible to save Medicare and Social Security or help families with the cost of living in America."