'Classic Deterrence Contest': Iran Fires Missiles at Israel Over Attack on Lebanon ​

After Israeli forces attacked a southern suburb of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, Iran delivered its promised retaliation late Sunday, firing missiles at Israel for the first time since a ceasefire agreement took effect in April and prompting US President Donald Trump to renew his push for a negotiated end to a conflict he helped inflame.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz claimed their Sunday strikes were in response to rocket fire from the Lebanese group Hezbollah—though Israel has been widely accused of trying to sabotage peace talks. Iran retaliated with at least 20 missiles from four different bases, which the Israeli military said it intercepted.

The barrage of missiles was a response to "the widespread killing and displacement of the oppressed people of the Tyre and Nabatieh regions" in southern Lebanon, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement. "Tonight's operation was a warning, and if the aggressions are repeated, the responses will be broader and will encompass all American-Zionist targets in the region."

Following the Iranian missile attack, Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir declared that "the IDF will strike the enemy with force the moment the green light is given."

Whether that permission is granted remains to be seen. Trump—who tore up the Obama administration's nuclear deal with the Iranian government during his first term and then, this past February, partnered with Netanyahu to launch an illegal assault on Iran, despite his "no new wars" promise—signaled to multiple journalists on Sunday that he was still pushing for a negotiated agreement.

Fox News' Trey Yingst said on air that during a phone call, Trump told him that he was "not happy about" the IDF's strikes allegedly targeting Hezbollah, and Iran's retaliation "certainly" won't help negotiations.

According to Yingst, Trump's message to Iran is, "You've shot your missiles, that's enough, get back to the table and make a deal."

Trump also told Axios' Barak Ravid that he planned to send Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a similar message: "I am going to call Bibi right now and tell him not to retaliate. Each of them had their fun. Israel had its strike, and Iran had its strike. We don't need another one."

The Times of Israel reported that after a call with Trump, Netanyahu was "holding a discussion with top security officials."

Summarizing Sunday's events on social media, Sina Toossi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, noted that "last week, we got reports that Trump yelled at Netanyahu to back off plans to attack Beirut's southern suburb of Dahieh after Iran warned that such a strike could trigger Iranian attacks on northern Israel. Today, Israel struck Dahieh anyway, killing civilians. This looks like a test: probing Iran's red lines and willingness to enforce them amid fluid deterrence dynamics."

"Israel's strike on Beirut put Iran in a difficult position," Toossi explained after Iran's response. "After publicly warning that such an attack would trigger retaliation, failing to respond would have undermined the credibility of that threat and likely invited further US/Israeli escalation. Iran's missile attack on northern Israel should be viewed in that context."

"What we're witnessing is a classic deterrence contest, with each side trying to establish which actions will trigger retaliation and impose costs sufficient to deter their repetition," he wrote. "The key question now is whether a deterrence equilibrium emerges around the Beirut-northern Israel equation, or whether both sides continue probing each other's thresholds and credibility, whether through more Israeli attacks in Lebanon/Beirut, direct Israeli strikes on Iran, or both, pushing this already fragile 'ceasefire' toward total collapse."

Trita Parsi, co-founder and executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, highlighted in a blog post that "this is the first time Iran has struck Israel after Israel struck another country's territory (that is, not Iran). This means that the battle lines have been moved. Iran's deterrence had already been restored in the sense that Israel knew that any strike on it would be responded to. But now, Iran has proven that it will also respond to Israeli strikes on Lebanon."

"From a US perspective, supporting Israel at this point recommits the US to its decades-long policy of seeking to sustain a balance in the region that allows for near-complete Israeli dominance," he asserted. "That policy has been extremely costly to US interests, has destabilized the region, and enabled the Israelis to get increasingly aggressive and reckless (since they face no consequences for it)."

Parsi added that "however problematic it has been, it will become far more challenging and destabilizing going forward since sustaining Israel’s dominance will necessitate continued war with Iran. This clearly contradicts US interests. If US interests were at the center of US policy, getting out of the Middle East and its regional rivalries would be a no-brainer."

Arab Center Washington DC fellow Assal Rad said on social media Sunday that "Trump wants a deal, Iran wants a deal, the region wants a deal, Americans want a deal, basically everyone wants to bring an end to wars, except Israel. That's why they keep attacking. Israel will not stop, it must be stopped."