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"Looks like Israel is now escalating in Lebanon in a major way in the hopes of kicking off a major war in the north that has thus far been kept to more limited exchanges," warned one analyst.
Israel's military deployed around 100 fighter jets to launch a massive bombing campaign in southern Lebanon on Sunday, endangering tens of thousands of civilians and heightening the chances of an all-out regional war.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) characterized the wave of airstrikes as an effort to preemptively "remove the threat" posed by a purportedly imminent Hezbollah attack, but observers argued the Israeli bombing marked a serious escalation that could further undermine hopes of a cease-fire deal in Gaza.
"Looks like Israel is now escalating in Lebanon in a major way in the hopes of kicking off a major war in the north that has thus far been kept to more limited exchanges," wrote political analyst Yousef Munayyer. "Just as negotiations for a cease-fire were reportedly advancing."
Hezbollah said Sunday that it had fired hundreds of drones and rockets at Israeli military sites in retaliation for the assassination of one of the group's senior commanders last month. Hezbollah said the "first phase" of its response was complete and rejected the IDF's claim that it preempted the group's retaliatory action.
The Associated Pressreported that "by mid-morning, it appeared that the exchange had ended, with both sides saying they had only aimed at military targets."
"At least three people were killed in the strikes on Lebanon," AP noted, "while there were no reports of casualties in Israel."
Israel Katz, the Israeli foreign minister, wrote on social media following the attack on Lebanon that he "sent a direct message to dozens of foreign ministers worldwide, urging them to support Israel against the Iranian axis of evil and its proxies, led by Hezbollah."
Sunday's dangerous back-and-forth, described by one newspaper as the two sides' biggest exchange of fire since the 2006 war, further intensified concerns that the region is moving toward the precipice of an all-out conflict as Israel's U.S.-backed assault on the Gaza Strip continues with no end in sight.
A White House spokesperson said Sunday that U.S. President Joe Biden is "closely monitoring events in Israel and Lebanon."
"At his direction, senior U.S. officials have been communicating continuously with their Israeli counterparts," the spokesperson said. "We will keep supporting Israel's right to defend itself, and we will keep working for regional stability."
One senior U.S. official said Israel did not give the White House advance notice of the Lebanon attack.
Monica Marks, professor of Middle East politics at New York University Abu Dhabi, wrote that the White House's claim to be promoting regional stability "lands like a bad joke" given ongoing U.S. support for Israel's "escalatory acts."
"Lives on the ground are at stake. So are [Democratic presidential nominee Kamala] Harris' chances and Biden's legacy," Marks added. "D.C. is playing Middle East roulette."
Israel's bombardment of Lebanon came after another horrific day in the Gaza Strip, where the IDF killed dozens of Palestinians in southern Gaza. "Among the dead," according to the AP, "were 11 members of a family, including two children, after an airstrike hit their home in Khan Younis."
The atrocities preceded a fresh round of high-level cease-fire talks, negotiations that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly thwarted with hardline demands.
The Washington Postreported Saturday that "Israel and Hamas were sending senior-level delegations to Cairo this weekend as U.S., Qatari, and Egyptian mediators prepared for a high-stakes summit they hope will break the deadlock in negotiations for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip."
"Hamas officials arrived in the Egyptian capital Saturday, while Israeli media reported that a team led by the head of Mossad, David Barnea, would travel there Sunday," the Post added. "The summit, also on Sunday, will include CIA Director William J. Burns, Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani."
Israeli airstrikes wiped out an entire family in al-Zawayda and killed 10 Syrian refugees in Lebanon as Hamas poured cold water on President Joe Biden's claim that a cease-fire is "closer than we've ever been."
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken departed for Israel on Sunday in an effort to secure a cease-fire in Gaza, even as Israeli forces continued to massacre Palestinians in the embattled strip and Hamas dismissed hopeful assertions by optimists including President Joe Biden that an agreement on a cessation of hostilities is within sight.
Blinken's trip to Israel comes days after Israeli negotiators met with senior U.S. officials, as well as Qataris and Egyptians mediating between Hamas and Israel, in Doha, Qatar. Although those talks ended without any major progress toward a cease-fire deal, Biden said Friday that "we are closer than we've ever been" to an agreement, "but we're not there yet."
In a separate statement, Biden said that a U.S. negotiating team presented a "comprehensive bridging proposal" offering "the basis for coming to a final agreement on a cease-fire and hostage release deal."
"I am sending Secretary Blinken to Israel to reaffirm my iron-clad support for Israel's security, continue our intensive efforts to conclude this agreement, and to underscore that with the comprehensive cease-fire and hostage release deal now in sight, no one in the region should take actions to undermine this process," the president added.
Israeli negotiators expressed "cautious optimism" over the prospects of a deal, Agence France-Presse reported.
During the weekly meeting of his far-right Cabinet, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that "there are areas where we can show flexibility, and there are areas where we can't show flexibility—and we are standing firm on them."
Consistent with what observers say is a pattern of Israeli escalations when cease-fire deals seem within reach, Israeli forces on Saturday bombed a home and adjacent warehouse in the central Gaza Strip town of al-Zawayda, killing at least 15 to 18 members of the al-Ejlah family, according to local and international media.
Victims include Sami Jawad al-Ejlah—a wholesaler who cooperated with the Israeli military to distribute food in Gaza—who was killed along with two of his wives, 11 of their children, and the children's grandmother, according to officials at al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in nearby Deir al-Balah.
"A massive fire broke out, burning everything in the warehouse as children were torn to pieces," Al Jazeera correspondent Tareq Abu Azzoum reported from the scene. "Rescue efforts are still continuing to try to recover more bodies."
According to the Lebanese satellite news channel Al Mayadeen, the al-Ejlah family "was wiped off the civil registry," a fate shared by at least scores—and perhaps hundreds—of Palestinian families during the 317-day assault by Israel, which is on trial for genocide at the World Court.
Al Mayadeen's Gaza correspondent said that "there were still individuals trapped under the rubble, with rescue teams working at the site of the massacre," and that most of the recovered victims "arrived dismembered" at al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital.
A spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said the attack targeted unspecified "terrorist infrastructure."
Meanwhile in southern Lebanon, where resistance to Israel's Gaza onslaught by Hezbollah has prompted fierce retaliation, an Israeli airstrike in the Wadi al-Kafur area of Nabatieh killed 10 Syrian refugees who fled that country's civil war, including a mother and her two children, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.
An IDF spokesperson said the strike targeted a Hezbollah weapons storage site.
In response to reports of U.S. and Israeli guarded optimism over a possible cease-fire deal, Hamas Political Bureau member Sami Abu Zuhri told Agence France-Presse that "to say that we are getting close to a deal is an illusion."
"We are not facing a deal or real negotiations, but rather the imposing of American diktats," Zuhri added.
Blinken's trip to Israel comes as the Palestinian death toll of the IDF's assault on Gaza topped 40,000 this week, with more than 92,000 people wounded and at least 11,000 others missing and presumed dead and buried beneath the rubble of hundreds of thousands of bombed-out homes and other buildings. Palestinian and international officials say most of those killed have been women and children.
The Biden administration has been accused of complicity in genocide for sending Israel tens of billions of dollars worth of arms and providing diplomatic cover, including by vetoing multiple United Nations cease-fire resolutions supported by the overwhelming majority of the world's nations.
The poll comes as Israel braces for retaliatory attacks from Iran and its allies following an assassination campaign last week.
A majority of Americans oppose sending U.S. troops to defend Israel if it's attacked by a neighboring country, according to a poll released Tuesday.
The Chicago Council on Global Affairs (CCGA) poll found that 55% of Americans oppose such military support of Israel while just 41% favor it, marking a shift from previous iterations of the poll over the last decade in which support for the U.S. defense of Israel was just above 50%.
The poll comes as Israel braces for retaliatory attacks following the assassinations last week of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut. The U.S. has moved additional forces into the region to support Israel as diplomats work overtime to try to deescalate tensions and prevent an all-out war in the Middle East. The poll was conducted June 21 to July 1 and doesn't account for these developments.
The reasons for declining U.S. support for defending Israel aren't explored in the poll, but CCGA author Dina Smeltz suggested that "the unrelenting Israeli attacks against Gaza have likely dampened American willingness to defend Israel," and critics of Israel's assault on Gaza drew similar conclusions.
"Nothing seems to undermine Americans' support for Israel more than Israel's own policies," Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, wrote on social media in response to the poll.
CCGA's findings fit with other polling this year that shows decreasing American support for Israel, which has laid siege to the Gaza Strip for the last 10 months, killing nearly 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza health ministry, and destroying a large proportion of the enclave's buildings. The siege began after Hamas and affiliated militant groups massacred more than 1,100 Israelis on October 7.
A Gallup poll in March showed that most Americans disapprove of Israel's military action in Gaza, and another poll that month by the Center for Economic and Policy Research showed that most Americans wanted to stop U.S. weapons shipments to Israel until the country ended its assault on Gaza.
That people in the U.S.—Israel's strongest diplomatic ally and military backer—have decreased their support for Israel is indicative of a global trend. A poll conducted across 43 countries showed a tremendous drop in support for Israel over the first three months of the war, for which Israel has faced widespread international condemnation.
Both the United Nations General Assembly and U.N. Security Council have adopted resolutions demanding a cease-fire. The International Court of Justice, the U.N.'s top court, has issued a series of rulings against Israel this year and the International Criminal Court has sought arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders.
The international criticism has not deterred Israel from further aggression. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set back cease-fire negotiations with Hamas last week with his military's assassination campaign, and he now faces the prospect of an all-out war on multiple fronts, with both Hezbollah and Iran vowing to retaliate.
Hezbollah, a militant group and political party in Lebanon, has ties to Iran and is considered to be significantly better-armed than Hamas, raising the possibility of a war of devastating magnitude. Israel and Hezbollah have traded thousands of airstrikes since October, leaving more than 500 dead, mostly on the Lebanese side, but until now have avoided a major escalation.
Western diplomats have even greater fear of a direct war between Israel and Iran. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is leading what The Washington Postcalled a "diplomatic sprint" around the Middle East to try to indirectly pressure Iran to use restraint in its response to the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran. The State Department has refused to say that Iran has a right to defend itself.
The U.S. has placed squadron of F-22 jets and naval destroyers near Israel in preparation for an Iranian attack. U.S. and Israeli leaders have long spoken of the two countries' "ironclad" bond, but no formal military defense treaty exists that requires the U.S. to defend Israel in the event of an attack.