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To Stop Failing in the Middle East, the US Must Consider the Needs of Arab People
US policies in the region are headed toward disaster—not only for the US and its stated goals, but also, and more importantly, for the people who live there.
May 18, 2026
One reason why US policy in the Middle East has been so problematic is because policymakers refuse to consider its impact on the needs of Arab people. With Israel, it’s a different story. Overattentiveness to Israeli concerns coupled with the lack of sensitivity to what Arabs think about our actions has led to deep fractures between Arabs and the US and within the Arab World.
Since 2000, we’ve conducted over 50 multination opinion polls on a variety of topics. We explored Arab attitudes toward other Arabs, the US, China, Russia, Iran, and Israel. We also examined attitudes toward conflicts in the region.
It’s been over two years since we’ve polled across the Arab World, but based on what we saw developing during our two and a half decades of work, it’s clear that US policies are headed toward disaster—not only for the US and its stated goals, but also, and more importantly, for the Arab people.
What follows are some observations based on the trend lines we have culled from our surveys:
- After 9/11, President George W. Bush famously claimed, “They hate us because they hate our values.” Our 2002 polling found the opposite: Arabs liked American people, products, education, and values, but strongly disliked US policies toward the Arab world—especially regarding Palestinians. As I said during a congressional hearing on my polling: “Arabs like us and our values—what they resent is that we don’t apply those values to them.”
Bush’s Iraq war and neglect of Palestinians further lowered US ratings. They rose with President Barack Obama’s promise of change but fell when he didn’t deliver on them. Attitudes further plummeted with President Donald Trump’s pro-Israel, anti-Muslim policies.
By late 2023, our last multination poll showed President Joe Biden’s support for Israel’s war on Gaza generating even stronger negatives. To make matters worse, the complications created by President Trump’s US-Israel attacks on Iran, coupled with his assault on the very aspects of America that were respected worldwide—our universities, press freedom, and immigration policy—make it likely that Arabs are now finding it difficult to even like American values.
- Over the years, we have often polled on favorable and unfavorable attitudes toward China and the US. During this time, while opinions toward the US ebbed and flowed, attitudes toward China remained steady. By the end of 2023, for the first time, China’s ratings were competitive with those of the US in areas that had previously been the US’s strong suits—education and doing business. And in several Arab countries, China was seen as a more reliable partner than the US.
- Arab attitudes toward Iran have followed a consistent pattern. When Iran was perceived to be under attack for resisting the US and the West, it found a strong base of support among many Arabs. But when Iran directly meddled in Arab countries, opinion turned against it. And when its ally Hezbollah turned its weapons against its domestic Lebanese opponents and joined Iran in direct involvement in Syria’s civil war, majorities in most Arab countries turned against Iran.
Following this trajectory, one can reasonably assume that the US-Israel attacks on Iran coupled with Israel’s attacks on Lebanon and Syria, and Israel’s boasts of becoming the regional power that was “defending Western civilization against barbarism,” won Iran some sympathy in Arab public opinion. The same might be true for the recent US-Israel attacks on Iran, except that instead of seeking Arab support, Iran deliberately attacked its Arab Gulf neighbors—the very countries that had been trying to restore relationships with the meddlesome Islamic Republic. This, no doubt, turned opinion among many in the Gulf against Iran. It is uncertain, however, how much intra-Arab friction this is causing in the rest of Arab world.
- Support for Palestinians has long been a central Arab concern. They showed little interest in making peace with Israel—even in those countries that had signed peace agreements with Israel. As Israeli repression of Palestinians intensified and the fractured and visionless Palestinian leadership failed to inspire, Arab opinion began to change. In late 2019, we asked Arabs if they felt it would be desirable to make peace with Israel, even if Israel didn’t accept the terms of the Arab Peace Initiative. When significant numbers said that it might be desirable, we asked why. The responses varied but many told us that it might help end the violence and give Arabs more leverage to convince Israel to grant Palestinian rights.
We repeated this question at the end of September 2023 and had completed about half of the questionnaires by October 7, the date of the Hamas attack. We interrupted the survey and only went back a few weeks later to complete it. The changes in the results were significant. Before October 7, responses were similar to the 2019 poll, but by the end of October, in reaction to the intensity of Israel’s assault on Gaza, attitudes shifted dramatically against any attempt to deal with Israel. Three years later, one can reasonably assume this hasn’t changed.
In 2024 and 2025, on three occasions, we polled in the Occupied Lands. Results were disturbing. Israeli policy had worked to discredit the Palestinian Authority, weakening its ability to govern. Opinion in the West Bank had turned against the PA, with respondents saying they preferred Hamas. In Gaza, we found that Hamas had fallen into deep disfavor, with a strong plurality of Gazans preferring the PA. In both the West Bank and Gaza there was little support for US, Israeli, or international governance. They preferred Palestinian unity.
Meanwhile, Israel continues to lay waste to Gaza and is running roughshod over the West Bank and East Jerusalem, further angering Palestinians and discrediting the PA. All the while Israel rejects any role for the PA in Gaza. As the situation further unravels, the US ignores Palestinians’ wishes and turns a blind eye to Israeli misdeeds.
- In Lebanon, when Hezbollah was seen as resisting Israel, it found favor among many Lebanese, especially since Israel frequently bombed Lebanon and occupied a swatch of its land from the late 1970s to 2000. However, when in 2008, Hezbollah turned its weapons against the state and in 2019 against the popular revolt, Lebanese opinion divided along sectarian lines. Our polling before 2023 showed that most Lebanese wanted Hezbollah disarmed or under the control of the Lebanese army. But Israel’s recent devastating assault on Lebanon; its bombing throughout the country; its forced expulsion of 1 million Lebanese from the south; its destruction of homes, farmlands, and entire villages; and explicit intention to annex a large portion of the country has no doubt restored some support for Hezbollah and exacerbated internal sectarian tensions, while turning more Lebanese against Israel and the US.
Seen in this light, US efforts to pressure the Lebanese government to forcibly disarm Hezbollah and make a peace agreement with Israel is dangerous for Lebanon’s stability.
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In each instance, it is America’s lack of attentiveness to Arab sensitivities and needs that contributes to making a bad situation even worse—further embittering Arabs toward the US, deepening fissures within the Arab World, while fostering every-expanding Israeli impunity.
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Iran Reopens Strait of Hormuz After Israel-Lebanon Truce as Trump Continues Blockade
Meanwhile, Israel responded to Trump's purported prohibition of Israeli attacks on Lebanon by attacking the country.c
Apr 17, 2026
Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened to international shipping following an Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement, prompting thanks from President Donald Trump—who then said the US naval blockade on Iranian ports will continue.
"In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said.
Trump first thanked Iran in a post on his Truth Social network. However, about 20 minutes later, the president posted again on the site, writing:
THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS COMPLETELY OPEN AND READY FOR BUSINESS AND FULL PASSAGE, BUT THE NAVAL BLOCKADE WILL REMAIN IN FULL FORCE AND EFFECT AS IT PERTAINS TO IRAN, ONLY, UNTIL SUCH TIME AS OUR TRANSACTION WITH IRAN IS 100% COMPLETE. THIS PROCESS SHOULD GO VERY QUICKLY IN THAT MOST OF THE POINTS ARE ALREADY NEGOTIATED.
The US, Iran, and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7 after Trump threatened a genocidal attack on Iran, saying that "a whole civilization will die tonight" if there was no deal that day. Officials on all sides clarified that the truce did not signal the end of the ongoing war.
Friday's announcements followed the implementation of a tentative 10-day ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, where nearly 50 days of Israeli bombardment has killed or wounded thousands of Lebanese, including hundreds of children, and displaced more than a million others.
It is unclear how Hezbollah, which did not take part in ceasefire negotiations, will respond. The Lebanon-based militant group has retaliated for Israel's genocide in Gaza and attacks on Lebanon with rocket and drone strikes on Israel, and the Lebanese government is largely unable to stop Hezbollah from further attacks if it decides to launch them.
Thousands of Iranians have also been killed or wounded by US and Israeli bombing since February 28, the day the war was launched. That was also the day that a US cruise missile strike on a girls' school in Minab killed 168 people, mostly children.
About half an hour after Trump's Friday post confirming the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the president took to Truth Social again, this time announcing that "the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah [sic] situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!"
Lebanese and Israeli media reported that, minutes after Trump's purported prohibition, Israel subsequently launched a drone strike targeting a motorcycle between the southern Lebanese towns of Kounine and Beit Yahoun, killing one person. The terms of Thursday's ceasefire do allow Israel to conduct "defensive" strikes against “planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks.”
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Despite Ceasefire With Iran, Israel Pummels Lebanon With ‘Apocalyptic’ Strikes
Mediators said Lebanon was included in the ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. Netanyahu said it “does not include Lebanon" and launched the largest attack of the war so far.
Apr 08, 2026
Israel made it abundantly clear on Wednesday that it does not consider Lebanon to be protected by Tuesday night’s ceasefire that halted hostilities for two weeks between the US and Iran.
Hours after the ceasefire was reached, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it had begun "the largest coordinated strike across Lebanon," since it began its assault on the country in early March, with bombardments on what it said were Hezbollah targets across Beirut, Bekaa, and southern Lebanon.
According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, at least 87 people have been killed and more than 700 wounded across the country.
Hezbollah reportedly held its fire against Israel after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the agreement, said on Tuesday that "Iran and the United States of America, along with their allies, have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY."
But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Wednesday that, at least in Israel's eyes, the two-week agreement “does not include Lebanon." Israel said much of what was hit was located “within the heart of the civilian population."
Images and videos posted to social media show scenes that one resident described as "apocalyptic." Many of the attacks reportedly came without warning.
"Families were caught completely by surprise, with no time to escape," the resident said.
According to The Guardian:
Warplanes leveled several buildings in the center of the capital city without warning, filling the skies with smoke and the sounds of sirens as ambulances headed to impact sites.
The streets of Beirut were filled with cars crumpled by the blasts and the flaming wreckage of buildings that first responders struggled to extinguish.
People rushed home to check on their families; a man filmed as he ran towards a struck building in the Chiyah neighbourhood, screaming: “There are people inside!”
Pictures of rubble-covered children circulated on social media as people tried to find their parents.
Israel said it attacked more than 100 targets in less than 10 minutes.
Many more people remain trapped beneath the rubble, according to Haaretz, and full casualty counts have not yet been conducted. Meanwhile, hospitals across Beirut are overflowing with injured people, and first responders have issued urgent appeals for blood donations.
"The wounded and casualties are numerous," said Lebanese Red Cross head Georges Kettaneh, according to the Lebanese news network LBCI. "We are doing everything we can to save them.”
Israel launched another wave of attacks across other parts Lebanon, including a strike on an ambulance in Tyre that killed at least four people, according to local sources.
A bombing in the port city of Sidon left eight people dead and 22 injured. Video from local media outlets shows a local cafe lying in ruins as residents run in fear and paramedics rush to transport the wounded.
Other footage posted by local media showed a gigantic plume of smoke rising above a village in Shamstar, where mourners were reportedly attacked during a funeral procession.
Lebanon's prime minister, Nawaf Salam, said on social media: "Whilst we welcomed the agreement between Iran and the United States, and stepped up our efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, Israel continues to escalate its attacks, which have targeted densely populated residential neighborhoods and claimed the lives of unarmed civilians across Lebanon."
He added that Israel was "showing no regard for regional and international efforts to end the war, let alone the principles of international law and international humanitarian law, which it has never respected in the first place."
IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir said Israel planned to continue the attacks "without stopping."
The attacks are already threatening to torpedo the ceasefire between the US and Iran in its infancy. Hezbollah legislator Ibrahim Al-Moussawi has warned of a response from Iran if Israel continues to attack Lebanon.
“The agreement includes Lebanon, according to its terms, and Iran insisted on this inclusion,” Al-Moussawi told local television channel Al-Jadeed.
According to Iran's Fars News Agency, it has once again halted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israel's attack, putting in jeopardy a core piece of the agreement—that the waterway would be reopened.
Already, Israeli attacks have killed more than 1,500 people in Lebanon since the beginning of March, including at least 130 children. Israeli evacuation orders have forced more than 1.2 million people—one in five—to flee their homes, and the military has pressured Christian and Druse communities and southern Lebanon to force out Shia Muslims in neighboring communities, which has been described by observers as a push for ethnic cleansing.
Israel routinely violated its previous ceasefire with Lebanon that began in November 2024 with more than 10,000 air and land attacks over the first year, which the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said demonstrated a “total disregard of the ceasefire agreement.” It has done the same in Gaza, where hundreds of Palestinians have been killed since a ceasefire began in October 2025.
The Beirut-based journalist Séamus Malekafzali warned that by launching the "largest attacks... of this war so far" immediately after the US and Iran reached a tentative agreement, Israel was attempting to create conditions that make a durable ceasefire impossible.
He said, "Israel is attempting to create facts on the ground regarding this ceasefire and the supposed stopping of the war on all fronts, not just Iran."
UPDATE: This article has been edited following publication to contain more updated casualty numbers from the Lebanese Ministry of Health.
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