Surging in Michigan Senate Primary, El-Sayed Best Positioned to Beat Republican: Polls

Opponents of progressive former Detroit public health official Abdul El-Sayed have insisted he would be a risky candidate to face Republican contender Mike Rogers, with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, who is running against El-Sayed in the Democratic primary, suggesting his support for Medicare for All is too radical, and a centrist think tank attacking him for campaigning with an outspoken critic of Israel.

But polls released Wednesday revealed that not only is El-Sayed continuing to surge ahead of McMorrow and US Rep. Haley Stevens, but he also appears to have a better chance of beating Rogers in a statewide race.

A new poll taken by Mitchell Research and Communications between June 11-13 found El-Sayed received the support of 42% of respondents, nine points ahead of Stevens. McMorrow, who has positioned herself as a "moderate" middle ground between her two opponents, had 6% support.

The survey found that El-Sayed continued to build his support among voters under the age of 45, with the candidate 83 points ahead of his opponents in the race that has been called a "millennial showdown" by local media. All three candidates are between the ages of 39 and 42.

Last month, another survey by Mitchell Research and Communications found El-Sayed with the support of 80% of voters ages 18-44.

A separate poll released by Zenith Research on behalf of Common Defense—a grassroots organization of military veterans and their families—found El-Sayed three points ahead of Rogers, a former congressman.

Forty-five percent of respondents backed El-Sayed in a hypothetical matchup with the Republican, who had polled at 42%.

In a hypothetical McMorrow-Rogers matchup, the Democrat had 44% support compared the Republican's 42%, while Stevens was just one point ahead of Rogers.

"The difference between El-Sayed and Stevens’ vote shares—45% and 43%, respectively—appears to be due to Stevens’ relative unpopularity among voters who self-identify as 'very progressive or liberal,'" said Adam Carlson, founding partner of Zenith Polls. "Thirty-one percent of progressive/liberal voters hold a 'strongly unfavorable' view of Stevens."

Several respondents, said Carlson, cited Stevens' ties to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee "as the driving cause, which coincides with AIPAC taking a more active role in the campaign in recent weeks."

Polls have shown that since Israel began its US-backed assault on Gaza in October 2023, public support for Israel and AIPAC, the powerful pro-Israel lobby group, has plummeted, particularly among Democratic voters.

The pollster found that 51% of respondents would support a candidate who backs Medicare for All—a top focus of El-Sayed's policy platform—while 33% said they would prefer a candidate who supports maintaining the for-profit healthcare system as it is. Stevens and McMorrow have said they support a "public option" to compete with for-profit insurers. McMorrow falsely claimed in a recent interview that Medicare for All does not have significant public support.

"Abdul is the ONLY one who can turn out a broad coalition to beat Rogers in November," said El-Sayed's campaign in response to the poll. "He’s the strongest and safest candidate to not only hold the seat but use it to pass transformative legislation to get money out of politics, put money in pockets, and pass Medicare for All."

At MeidasTouch on Wednesday, correspondent Scott MacFarlane asked El-Sayed why his critics continue to claim he would not be electable in the general election.

“I think my party doesn’t really know what electability is any more," said El-Sayed. "They think electability is about being the most middle-of-the-road Democrat."

"What they don't realize," said El-Sayed, "is that the Democratic Party's brand has been destroyed by Democrats who take money from corporations to water down a message, and then wonder why our base doesn't show up for us."