At that time, the official Palestinian death toll in Gaza stood at 52,928, with the Gaza Health Ministry not differentiating between civilians and militants. Israeli officials and independent peer-reviewed studies have either concurred with the ministry's figures or called them an undercount.
The classified IDF data obtained by Abraham and Graham-Harrison show that at least 83% of Palestinians killed by Israeli forces through May were civilians, what Graham-Harrison called "an extreme rate of slaughter rarely matched in recent decades of warfare... even compared with conflicts notorious for indiscriminate killing, including the Syrian and Sudanese civil wars."
According to the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at Uppsala University in Sweden, the 83% civilian kill rate in Gaza is far higher than in Bosnia in 1992-95 (57%), the Syrian civil war of 2012-24 (29-34%), the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine (10-22%), or the US-led war in Afghanistan of 2001-21 (8-12%).
One unnamed intelligence source who was in Gaza told Abraham and Graham-Harrison: "People are promoted to the rank of terrorist after their death. If I had listened to the brigade, I would have come to the conclusion that we had killed 200% of Hamas operatives in the area."
In one case, +972 Magazine and Local Call revealed how one IDF battalion stationed in Rafah killed around 100 Palestinians and labeled them all as "terrorists." However, an officer from the unit later testified that all but two of the victims were unarmed.
The new investigation adds to the body of research showing that Israel's assault and siege on Gaza—which is the subject of an ongoing International Court of Justice (ICJ) genocide case filed by South Africa—has, as Abraham put it, "killed civilians at a rate with few parallels in modern warfare."
These studies destroy claims by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes including murder and forced starvation—and members of his government of historically low civilian death rates in Gaza.
"Israel is setting the new gold standard for urban warfare with what appears to be the lowest civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio in history," Israeli government spokesperson Avi Hyman claimed in May 2024.
Israel's supporters around the world have parroted this false claim. John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the US Military Academy at West Point, said in January that "Israel's civilian-to-combatant ratio is still historically low," and that "Israel has done more and implemented more measures to prevent civilian harm than any military in the history of urban warfare."
However, the facts show a very different reality. Retired IDF Gen. Itzhak Brik told Abraham and Graham-Harrison that "there is absolutely no connection between the numbers that are announced and what is actually happening. It is just one big bluff."
"They lie non-stop—both the military echelon and the political echelon," Brik said. "In every raid, the IDF spokesperson's announcements said: 'Hundreds of terrorists were killed.' It's true that hundreds were killed, but they weren't terrorists."
Following the October 7 attack, the IDF dramatically loosened its rules of engagement, effectively allowing an unlimited number of civilians to be killed when targeting a single Hamas member, no matter how low-ranking. Numerous massacres ensued, including the October 31, 2023 killing of more than 120 civilians in a single IDF bombing targeting one Hamas member in the Jabalia refugee camp.
The IDF's use of massive ordnance, including US-supplied 1,000- and 2,000-pound "bunker buster" bombs capable of leveling entire city blocks,w and utilization of artificial intelligence to select targets has resulted in staggering numbers of civilian deaths. United Nations human rights officials have said that Israel's use of 2,000-pound bombs likely violates international law by deliberately targeting civilians in disproportionate attacks.
The indiscriminate slaughter is also taking place on the ground, where volunteer American surgeons have described treating—or sending to morgues—young children who appeared to be deliberately shot in the chest and head by IDF snipers. More recently, IDF whistleblowers said they were ordered to shoot or launch artillery shells into crowds of starving Palestinian civilians at aid distribution points run by the US-based Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
Responding to the new investigation, the IDF confirmed the existence of the Military Intelligence Directorate database, but claimed that "figures presented in the article are incorrect," without further explanation.
However, in a recording published last week, Aharon Haliva—a former IDF general who was in charge of intelligence operations on and after the October 7 attack—is heard approvingly accepting the official Gaza Health Ministry death toll at the time.
"The fact that there are already 50,000 dead in Gaza is necessary and required for future generations," Haliva said. "It doesn't matter now if they are children."
Similar statements by Israeli officials are a key component of South Africa's ICJ case, where applicants must prove intent to commit genocide under Article II of the Genocide Convention.
The most recent Gaza Health Ministry figures show that Israel's 685-day assault and siege on Gaza have left at least 62,122 Palestinians dead—most of them women and children—and more than 156,700 others wounded, with thousands more missing and presumed dead and buried beneath rubble. At least 271 Palestinians, including 112 children, have starved to death.
The dire situation for civilians in Gaza could be about to deteriorate even further as Israel intensifies Operation Gideon's Chariots II, which aims to conquer, occupy, and ethnically cleanse Palestinians in numbers exceeding even the Nakba, or "catastrophe," during which more than 750,000 Arabs were forcibly expelled, sometimes via massacre and death march, during the establishment of Israel in 1948.
Israeli officials have repeatedly indicated that they would approve of such an annihilation, with Haliva asserted that Palestinians "need a Nakba every now and then to feel the price" of resisting more than a century of dispossession and displacement.
