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"This is a near worst-case scenario for one of the most storm surge flood vulnerable regions in the world," one scientist warned. "I hate to say it but we're looking at a potential mass casualty event."
Officials in Bangladesh and Myanmar are preparing Friday to evacuate hundreds of thousands of people as a tropical storm turbocharged by the fossil fuel-driven climate crisis strengthens in the Bay of Bengal.
Cyclone Mocha is forecast to intensify further before making landfall on Sunday between western Myanmar and the Bangladeshi city of Cox's Bazar, home to the world's largest refugee camp. Roughly 1 million Rohingya people forced to flee Myanmar amid the country's ongoing genocide against them live in the highly exposed district.
"This is a very, very scary storm," tweeted environmentalist and author Bill McKibben, pointing to its severity and current path.
"The government of Bangladesh needs to develop an inclusive evacuation plan."
The evacuation of more than 500,000 people from the Bangladeshi coast "is expected to start Saturday with 576 cyclone shelters ready to provide refuge to those who are moved from their homes," The Associated Press reported, citing government administrator Muhammad Shaheen Imran.
Bangladesh, a delta nation with more than 160 million residents, is already prone to extreme weather disasters, and that's increasingly the case as the warming Indian Ocean generates more intense and longer-lasting cyclones as well as heavier rainfall.
The impoverished Rohingya refugees living in Cox's Bazar are especially vulnerable to the incoming storm, and it's unclear how many, if any, of them are included in the Bangladeshi government's evacuation plans.
United Nations Refugee Agency spokesperson Olga Sarrado told Reuters that preparations are underway for a partial evacuation of the camp, if necessary. The World Health Organization is also setting up nearly three dozen mobile medical teams and 40 ambulances, along with emergency surgery and cholera kits for the camp.
"Still reeling from a devastating fire in March that destroyed more than 2,600 shelters and critical infrastructure, over 850,000 refugees risk losing their homes and livelihoods," the International Rescue Committee (IRC) warned in a statement. "Strong wind, heavy rains, and subsequent flash floods and mudslides could destroy shelters, community centers, and health clinics, depriving thousands of essential services and humanitarian aid."
"In preparation, more than 3,000 Rohingya refugees have been trained to respond to flooding and mudslides," said the IRC, which is "scaling up its emergency response in Cox's Bazar." According to the organization: "Three mobile medical teams will be deployed to remote areas in the camps and communities to provide emergency medical treatment. Additionally, a mobile protection unit designed for emergency settings will offer protection services to vulnerable groups such as women, girls, the elderly, and those with disabilities."
IRC Bangladesh director Hasina Rahman lamented how "time and again, we have seen the devastating impact of extreme weather events in Cox’s Bazar. Since 2017, countless shelters, schools, health clinics, and safe spaces for survivors of gender-based violence have been decimated as a result of floods and mudslides, as well as preventable tragedies such as the fire in March this year."
"As a low-lying country with major cities in coastal areas, Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to climate change, which makes annual weather events—such as cyclones—more intense and frequent," said Rahman. "The impacts—loss of life, destroyed crops, challenges to livelihoods, damage to homes and infrastructure—are often borne by the people and communities who have contributed least to the climate crisis: Bangladesh, for example, emits less than 1% of global CO2 emissions."
While a rapid and just clean energy transition and other far-reaching transformations are needed to mitigate the causes of global warming, developing nations like Bangladesh cannot "cope with continued weather shocks without support that addresses the effects of climate change, such as early warning systems, anticipatory action, improving infrastructure to protect against flooding, and investment into climate adaptation," Rahman noted.
"It is crucial to fortify shelters and critical infrastructure," Rahman continued. "This involves using durable construction materials to strengthen community facilities like child-friendly spaces, learning facilities, and mosques, which serve as safe points during emergencies."
"Additionally, the government of Bangladesh needs to develop an inclusive evacuation plan in collaboration with U.N. agencies, humanitarian organizations, and the refugee and host communities," she stressed. "The plan should prioritize access to emergency shelters, ensuring family unity, and the protection of vulnerable groups, including women, children, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities."
The U.N.'s International Organization for Migration (IOM) observed that "last year, the camps escaped devastation from the Bay of Bengal cyclone Sitrang, which killed 35 people, displaced over 20,000, and caused over $35 million in damages in other parts of the country."
Cyclone Mocha, the first to form in the bay this year, "strengthened Friday into the equivalent of a category 1 Atlantic hurricane and is moving north at 11 kilometers per hour (7 miles per hour)," CNN reported, citing the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. "The storm's winds could peak at 220 kph (137 mph)—equivalent to a category 4 Atlantic hurricane—just before making landfall on Sunday morning."
India's Meteorological Department on Friday projected that "a storm surge of up to 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) was likely to inundate low-lying coastal areas in the path of the cyclone at the time of landfall," including Cox's Bazar, the outlet noted.
To assist refugees and local host communities as they brace for Cyclone Mocha, IOM said that it "is strengthening camp infrastructure, preparing for medical emergencies, and supporting volunteers in cyclone preparedness."
The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) also expressed "grave concerns" about the storm's potential impacts on "already vulnerable and displaced communities" in neighboring Myanmar, where a military junta rules.
"Of particular worry is the situation facing 232,100 people who are displaced across Rakhine. Many of the [internally displaced person] camps and sites in Rakhine are located in low-lying coastal areas susceptible to storm surge," said OCHA. "The suffering of more than a million displaced people and other communities in the northwest is also expected to worsen over the coming days as the ex-cyclone moves inland bringing heavy rain. Displaced people in the northwest are already living in precarious conditions in camps, displacement sites, or in forests often without proper shelter."
In May 2008, Cyclone Nargis inundated Myanmar, killing more than 138,000 people, uprooting 800,000, and affecting 2.4 million.
"Extreme weather hazards will occur more frequently due to climate change in the years ahead. The linkages between climate change, migration, and displacement are increasingly pressing worldwide," IOM pointed out. "To avert, mitigate, and address displacement linked to climate disasters and strengthen people's resilience," the U.N. agency urged policymakers around the world "to implement sustainable climate adaptation, preparedness, and disaster risk reduction measures."
Despite knowing that extracting and burning more coal, oil, and gas will exacerbate the deadly effects of the climate emergency, profit-hungry fossil fuel executives are still planning to expand drilling with the continued support of many governments.
While COP27 delegates agreed to establish a loss and damage fund—after failing to commit to phasing out the fossil fuels that are causing so much harm—previous efforts to ramp up climate aid from the Global North to the Global South have fallen far short of what's needed due to the stinginess of wealthy countries, especially the United States.
However, around 180 other Rohingya are feared dead amid reports their overcrowded boat sank after setting sail from Bangladesh earlier this month.
The rescue of hundreds of Rohingya refugees by fishers and local authorities in Indonesia's Aceh province was praised Tuesday as "an act of humanity" by United Nations officials, while relatives of around 180 Rohingya on another vessel that's been missing for weeks feared that all aboard had perished.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said that "Indonesia has helped to save 472 people in the past six weeks from four boats, showing its commitment and respect of basic humanitarian principles for people who face persecution and conflict."
"We feel like we got a new world today... We could see their faces again. It's really a moment of joy for all of us."
"UNHCR urges other states to follow this example. Many others did not act despite numerous pleas and appeals for help," the Geneva-based agency added. "States in the region must fulfill their legal obligations by saving people on boats in distress to avoid further misery and deaths."
Ann Maymann, the UNHCR representative in Indonesia, said in a statement that "we welcome this act of humanity by local communities and authorities in Indonesia."
"These actions help to save human lives from certain death, ending torturous ordeals for many desperate people," she added.
The Syndey Morning Herald reports residents of Ladong, a fishing village in Aceh, rushed to help 58 Malaysia-bound Rohingya men who arrived Sunday in a rickety wooden boat, many of them severely dehydrated and starving.
The following day, 174 more starving Rohingya men, women, and children, were helped ashore by local authorities and fishers after more than a month at sea.
Mohammed Rezuwan Khan, whose 27-year-old sister Hatamonesa was aboard the boat with her 5-year-old daughter, told Pakistan's Arab News that "we feel like we got a new world today."
“We could see their faces again. It's really a moment of joy for all of us," he said of his family. Speaking of his sister, he added that "she thought that she would die in the voyage at sea."
Babar Baloch, the UNHCR regional spokesperson in Bangkok, stated that 26 people had died aboard the rescued vessel, which left Bangladesh a month ago.
"We were raising alarm about this boat in early December because we had information that it was in the regional waters at least at the end of November," he said. "So when we first got reports that it was somewhere near the coast of Thailand, we approached authorities asking them to help, then when it was moving towards Indonesia and Malaysia we did the same."
"After its engine failure and it was drifting in the sea, there were reports of this boat being spotted close to Indian waters and we approached and asked them as well and we were also in touch with authorities in Sri Lanka," Baloch continued.
"Currently as we speak, the only countries in the region that have acted are Indonesia, in big numbers, and Sri Lanka as well."
According to the BBC, the Indian navy appears to have towed the boat into Indonesian waters after giving its desperate passengers some food and water. The boat drifted for another six days before it was allowed to land.
"Currently as we speak, the only countries in the region that have acted are Indonesia, in big numbers, and Sri Lanka as well," Baloch said. "It is an act in support of humanity, there's no other way to describe it."
Relatives of around 180 other Rohingya who left Bangladesh on December 2 said Tuesday that they fear the overcrowded vessel has sunk in the Andaman Sea. Mohammad Noman, a resident of a Rohingya refugee camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, told The Guardian that his sister was aboard the boat with her two daughters, who are 5 and 3 years old.
"Every day we called up the boat two or three times on the boatman's satellite phone to find out if my sister and her two daughters were all right. Since December 8, I have failed to get access to that phone," he said. "I know some other people in Cox's Bazar who made phone calls to the boat every day and stayed in contact with their relatives there. None of them has succeeded to reach the phone after December 8."
The captain of another vessel transporting Rohingya refugees said he saw the distressed boat swept up in stormy seas sometime during the second week of December.
"It was around 2:00 am when a strong wind began blowing and big waves surfaced on the sea. [Their] boat began swaying wildly, we could gauge from a flashlight they were pointing at us," he told The Guardian. "After some time, we could not see the flashlight anymore. We believe the boat drowned then."
More than a million Rohingya Muslims are crowded into squalid refugee camps in southern Bangladesh after having fled ethnic cleansing, apartheid, and other violence and repression in Rakhine state, Myanmar, which is ruled by a military dictatorship. Since 2020, thousands of Rohingya have fled the camps by sea.
Hundreds have died during the perilous journey. If the sinking of the boat with 180 aboard is confirmed, it would make 2022 the deadliest year for Rohingya at sea, according to UNHCR.
UNHCR's Baloch stressed that "countries and states in the region have international obligations to help desperate people."
"We have been calling on states to go after people smugglers and human traffickers as they are responsible for putting people on those death-trap boats, but victims have to be saved and saving human life is the most important act," he told the Morning Herald.
"The refugee issue and saving lives cannot just be left to one country, it has to be done collectively, together in the region," he added.
Tun Khin, a Rohingya activist and refugee who now heads the Burmese Rohingya Organization U.K., took aim at regional power Australia, which has been criticized for decades over its abuse of desperate seaborne asylum-seekers, nearly all of whom are sent to dirty, crowded offshore processing centers on Manus Island and Nauru to await their fate.
"Australia has too often set a shameful example for the region through its treatment of refugees," he told the Morning Herald.
"These people are facing genocide in Burma," Khin added, using the former official name of Myanmar. "It is a hopeless situation for them in Bangladesh, there is no dignity of life there."
Sunday, June 20 marked the United Nations' World Refugee Day, a time to highlight refugees worldwide, applaud their courage, and highlight their contributions. This year's theme, "Heal, Learn, Shine," recognized the challenges of COVID-19, the need to uphold the right to education, and how refugees persevere despite the challenges presented to them. According to the UN, there are greater than 1.1 million refugees from my home country of Burma, making it one of the top five source countries of refugees worldwide. While many may celebrate World Refugee Day, those forced to flee Burma continue to witness repeated mass atrocities.
As the number of people fleeing the Burmese military's violence has only increased since the coup, seeking refuge in Thailand has proven increasingly difficult for Burma's ethnic minority refugees as Thai officials fear the spread of COVID-19 and strictly police their borders.
"Despite impossible conditions and a consistent lack of international support, there are numerous examples of how refugees from Burma impact communities around our world."
Estimates report that in March and April, close to 3,000 Karen internally displaced persons (IDPs) crossed the Salween River to seek refuge in Thailand, only to be held by Thai officials until conditions were deemed secure enough to turn them away. Similarly, more than 100,000 Karenni civilians escaping conflict in their home state were met with force at the Thai-Burma border, where officials attempted to push back thousands.
Safety and security for refugees are immensely rare, even on the occasion that they are accepted by host countries. Refugees are uniquely affected by a number of factors, and, during a pandemic, are disproportionately impacted by COVID-19. Often crammed into tight living situations with inadequate hygiene facilities, the ability to escape COVID-19's grip is almost impossible for Burma's refugees. With more than 1 million Rohingya refugees living in
Bangladesh, estimates report close to 1,369 cases of COVID-19 in Rohingya refugee camps. Vaccine supplies are also far from refugees' reach-- as of June 1, no COVID-19 vaccines have been distributed in Cox's Bazar.
Education remains unavailable to refugees from Burma and across the diaspora in Bangladesh, India, Thailand, and Malaysia. While some children are able to attend small, community-run schools, the general lack of educational opportunities forces entire generations from Burma to face their future unprepared. A May 2021 study reported that 68 percent of Rohingya families have at least one child, aged 5 to 17, that has been offered no opportunities to gain an education.
Despite impossible conditions and a consistent lack of international support, there are numerous examples of how refugees from Burma impact communities around our world. The Chin Human Rights Organization has empowered thousands of Chin refugees in India and Malaysia to help them reach their full potential. With help from the Rohingya Women Development Network, Rohingya women in Malaysia are taught about their rights and the key roles they play in society. Internally displaced Karenni and their refugee diaspora are supported by the collective work of the Karenni Civil Society Network, a Karenni-led effort that also speaks out against the human rights abuses experienced by ethnic minorities across Burma. While these efforts are worthy of celebration and highlight what refugees contribute to our communities, this impact would be amplified to the greatest extent if these individuals could bring their talent home to Burma for the benefit of all.
It is difficult for civilians in Burma to heal when the Burma army continues to brutalize its own people. However, despite their pain, refugees and IDPs are learning to empower themselves. However, they cannot do this alone. If the situation in Burma does not improve, the reported 175,000 internally displaced men, women, and children--a figure that is doubtlessly a conservative estimate--will likely become refugees.
The Burmese military's impunity weighs heavily on the minds of refugees in Southeast Asia and IDPs in Burma who look to their home country and wonder if their chance to safely return is slipping away. Refugees in camps and those resettled abroad are calling for the world to act, but is anyone listening? While everyone has the right to protection and freedom from the risk of death and torture, now more than ever, we need a world that will sustainably uphold the rights of all.
The international community should be compelled to take swift action to pressure the Burmese military to allow unconditional humanitarian access to internally displaced people. Cross-border aid is also essential and beyond crucial to the survival of the hundreds of thousands living in makeshift and refugee camps. Ending the illegal junta in Burma is the first step to securing human rights-based livelihoods for refugees and the millions of civilians who have long deserved peace and democratic rule. Only then can we collectively begin a new and more equitable process to heal, learn, and shine.
Nineteen-year-old Nur Jahan (pseudonym) shares two flimsy tents with her baby and 14 other family members. Life is really tough for Nur in the sprawling refugee camps of Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, where she fled four years ago from violence and persecution in Myanmar.
"Simple things like finding clean water or food are hard," she says. "Crammed in these tiny tents, it would be hard to keep safe if a family member got coronavirus."
A year on since the World Health Organization declared Covid-19 a global pandemic, the virus has had far ranging impact on marginalized Rohingya refugees like Nur. The over-riding lesson has been how Rohingya refugees braved the new challenges of the pandemic with incredible determination and resilience.
Here are four things to know about how residents of the world's largest refugee camp have braved Covid-19.

Despite the difficult conditions in the camps, the Rohingya people seem so far to have escaped from the worst. Infection rates have remained far below initial projections with only 406 people having tested positive, and ten deaths, since the first confirmed Covid-19 case was discovered on May 14. The WHO and Bangladesh Institute of Epidemiology plan further research to better understand the trajectory of the virus in Cox's Bazar. There is some suggestion that many refugees were initially reluctant to seek tests.
Humanitarians and the Government of Bangladesh quickly built-up health services, but the low number of cases is still extraordinary. The camps are severely crowded with almost one million people sharing 26 square kilometres--that's 40,000 people per square kilometer. In many areas up to 250 people share a single water tap.Social distancing is virtually impossible. Health experts warned that conditions were set for a devastating outbreak and catastrophic loss of life. So far, they have thankfully been proved wrong.
However, the pandemic has fueled an economic crisis. There has been a sharp decline in refugees' wellbeing. More than half the men and 84% of all women say they've not been able to make the same money as before. Nearly a quarter of all refugee households moved into a higher category of vulnerability--meaning they had less food and experienced more economic stress. Families were much more likely to accept high-risk jobs or send their children to work.
The pandemic also fuelled hunger. Only half of refugee households today have acceptable levels of food. Both refugee and host communities reported overwhelming difficulty to find sufficient or good quality food.
"Before Covid-19, we could get food from the distribution centres after checking it very carefully, but now much of the food gets rotten after two days because it now takes so long to arrive." The most vulnerable people are hardest hit, particularly single mothers, pregnant and lactating women, the elderly, and people with disabilities.
Oxfam and several partners conducted a Gender Analysis that found women and girls--both in the camps and in the host community--were facing greater risks and burdens, such as a spike in violence even as they got less lifesaving services and support. "Intimate partner violence, domestic violence, sexual harassment and kidnapping increased as security dropped and several organizations stopped their protection work," a female Rohingya Youth Leader told the research team. "Gender-based violence protection services are not available every day and it was difficult to access them remotely."
The study also found many Covid-19 messages were not reaching women and girls because of lockdown. Rohingya women in the camps and the host communities were consequently made less aware of Covid-19 risks than men.
Lockdowns also increased women's and girls' burden of unpaid care work which remains almost exclusively their responsibility. "Women are always expected to do more household chores than men. To ensure cleanliness during the pandemic, washing has increased for example and so women's workload has doubled," a host community woman, who also works as a police officer, told us.

Rohingya refugees were at the heart of their own Covid-19 response. Nur and her family, for example, learned about the disease from refugee volunteers in her community. "They came to make us aware of this virus using megaphones to explain what to do...so we know how to wash hands, how to be safe," she told Oxfam.
The Bangladeshi authorities had to significantly limit relief operations and reduced the humanitarian footprint in the camps by 80 percent. Thousands of community volunteers both from the Rohingya and Bangladeshi host community stepped in. They ramped up awareness on prevention, health and safety, began disinfecting communal areas and taught about the importance of handwashing and social distancing. Youth in the camps used social media to share songs with information about the virus. Women were leaders; more than 70% of volunteer community health workers in Cox's Bazar are female.
Oxfam worked with nearly 400 camp-based volunteers to monitor conditions and promote women's rights and public health. "Every day we help the community with soap and water and providing valuable information," says twenty-year-old Zahid Hossain, an Oxfam volunteer working in the camps. Zahid travels door to door explaining the virus symptoms and precautions, and where people can seek care.
"I'm happy to provide support for my community. If we don't spread messages about how to fight Coronavirus there will be more cases in the camps and more people will die," Zahid said.
The pandemic sparked innovation. Oxfam has provided clean water and sanitation facilities to 73,552 people in Cox's Bazar camps. Together with partners, we also delivered gender and livelihoods programs to both refugees and members of the Bangladeshi host community.
To limit physical contact, Oxfam and partners developed a new foot pedal-powered hand-washing station which made it possible for people to wash their hands without contaminating a tap or soap container. Refugees first tested it and gave us advice on how to improve it.
To reach more women and girls with Covid-19 awareness Oxfam provided new ways to communicate essential information, through dedicated information kits, powered with a Bluetooth speaker with pre-recorded messages in the Rohingya language, a solar charger, and a waterproof pouch. They helped us maintain contact during the pandemic while reducing human contact. This initiative was led by Rohingya women's groups, who shared messages across households.
"Men used to give us confusing information about Covid-19 and we were uncertain what to believe and what not to believe," a Rohingya woman told us. "After getting the audio kit we got to know the right things regarding covid-19 and it cleared our confusion."
Human rights defenders this week urged Bangladesh to stop its relocation of Rohingya refugees to a flood-prone island in the Bay of Bengal, warning of "grave concerns about independent human rights monitoring."
Bhashan Char, as BBC News previously reported, "emerged less than 20 years ago from the sea. Situated less than 2m (6ft) above sea level, the island is made entirely of silt, Himalayan sediment washed down river and into the sea."
With Bangladesh's main refugee camp, Cox's Bazar, overflowing, Bangladesh has controversially planned to move 100,000 Rohingya refugees there. Human rights groups say it will be akin to a "floating prison," where Rohingya will be forced to move involuntarily, despite humanitarian watchdogs having been blocked from assessing the safety of the conditions.
According to Reuters, Bangladesh--which asserts the relocations are happening with consent--brought roughly 1,600 Rohingya refugees to the island Friday. From Reuters:
On the mainland on Thursday, before the departure, two Rohingya told Reuters their names had appeared on lists compiled by government-appointed local leaders without their consent.
"They have taken us here forcefully," a 31-year-old man told Reuters tearfully by phone as he boarded a bus that he said was taking him from the camps near Cox's Bazar to Chittagong.
"Three days ago, when I heard that my family is on the list, I ran away from the block, but yesterday I was caught and taken here," he said.
Apart from concerns about the refugees' lack of consent to relocate and lack of verification from United Nations authorities that the island has adequate healthcare, housing, and safety measures in place, the island's high risk of flooding has prompted further warnings
"Bangladesh's announced plan to begin relocating Rohingya refugees this week to Bhasan Char--an isolated island in the Bay of Bengal--is short-sighted and inhumane," Refugees International senior advocate for human rights Daniel Sullivan said in a statement Wednesday.
The "cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal is still ongoing," added Sullivan. "As the devastation wrought by Cyclone Amphan demonstrated this summer, super cyclones are the way of the future, and conditions on the isolated island may be too dangerous for the Rohingya."
Amnesty International's South Asia campaigner, Saad Hammadi, sounded similar alarms in a statement Thursday.
"The relocation of so many Rohingya refugees to a remote island, " said Hammadi, "which is still off limits to everyone including rights groups and journalists without prior permission, poses grave concerns about independent human rights monitoring."
"No relocation plan, either to Bhashan Char or to another location, can be undertaken without the full and informed consent of the individuals involved," Hammadi added.
Human Rights Watch also has criticized the relocations, and in a Thursday statement shared ominous accounts from refugees.
"I have no idea how my name appeared there, but I never voluntarily put my name on that list," one refugee said, according to the rights group.
"I only learned I was on the list after the camp-in-charge [camp authority or CiC] called me to his office and told me. After that, I fled from my shelter. I am hearing now that the CiC volunteers and majhis (community leaders) are looking for me and my family. I am afraid that if they find me, they will force me to go," said the refugee.
Brad Adams, HRW's Asia director, accused the Bangladesh government of "actively reneging on its promise to the U.N. not to relocate any refugees to Bhasan Char island until humanitarian experts give a green light."
"If the government were genuinely confident in the habitability of the island," said Adams, "they would be transparent and not hastily circumvent U.N. technical assessments."