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"The booming job market exists only in Donald Trump's demented head," said economist Dean Baker.
Economists on Wednesday expressed significant concerns after new data from global payroll processing firm ADP estimated that the US economy lost 32,000 jobs last month.
As reported by CNBC, small businesses bore the brunt of the job losses, as firms with fewer than 50 employees shed a total of 120,000 jobs, more than offsetting the 90,000 in job gains reported by firms with 50 or more employees.
The loss of 32,000 jobs in November marked a major miss for economists' consensus estimate of 40,000 jobs added on the month, and CNBC noted that the total number of jobs lost according to ADP data "was the biggest drop since March 2023."
Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, noted in a post on X that the job losses recorded by ADP were widespread across the US economy.
"Yikes," she wrote in reaction to the report. "Most industries were doing layoffs. The only ones still are hiring are hospitality and healthcare."
Long also said the disparity between small and large businesses in terms of job growth was more evidence that the US is experiencing a "K-shaped" economy in which those at the top of the economic ladder thrive, even as everyone else struggles.
"Larger companies are still hiring," she explained. "Smaller firms (under 50 workers) are doing the layoffs. It's been a very tough year for small biz due to tariffs and more selective spending from lower and middle-class consumers."
Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, observed that ADP hasn't reported such a big drop in small-business employment since October 2020, when the US economy was suffering through the peak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at Groundwork Collaborative, cautioned against reading too much into ADP data, although he added that "in the absence of up to date government payrolls, all other signs point to a further deteriorating labor market."
Charlie Bilello, chief market strategist at financial planner Creative Planning, argued that the ADP jobs numbers were part of a negative three-month trend in which the US economy lost an estimated 4,000 jobs per month, which he said was "the first three-month decline since the 2020 recession."
Bilello added that "a year ago, we were adding over 200,000 jobs per month."
Diane Swonk, chief economist at accounting firm KPMG, argued that the ADP report showed job losses in the US economy were "broad based" and "were accompanied by a cooling of wage gains" for workers who still have jobs or are switching from one job to another.
"Those with a job are clinging on, while those without are left wanting," she explained.
Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, argued that the ADP report blows up President Donald Trump's spin about the health of the US economy.
"The booming job market exists only in Donald Trump's demented head," he wrote.
"If the goal is relief for Americans, just get rid of the tariffs," explained one economist.
As poll numbers on his handling of the US economy have continued to sink in recent weeks, President Donald Trump has floated sending Americans a $2,000 check that he has claimed will be funded with revenue collected from his tariffs on imported products.
However, economist Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR) on Tuesday crunched some numbers and found that Trump's proposed tariff "dividend" simply doesn't add up.
In particular, Baker found that the revenue being generated by the tariffs is less than half of the total cost of sending nearly every US citizen a $2,000 check.
"At $2,000 a piece it would come to $600 billion, more than twice what Trump is collecting from us with his import taxes," Baker explained. "Since he's already $330 billion short, how can Trump think he has money to pay down the national debt?"
Baker declared Trump's tariff math "crazy," and then speculated that the president sincerely believes the false claims he's been making about securing $18 trillion in investments from foreign countries. What's more, Baker said that it appears that no one on the president's economic policy team wants to tell him that this belief is purely delusional.
"People like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent or National Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett may not be brilliant intellects, but they know that Trump does not have trillions of dollars from foreign countries to play with, and that we are still running deficits that would ordinarily be considered very large," he said. "But they are too scared of Donald Trump to explain this to him."
Erica York, vice president of federal tax policy at the Tax Foundation, said in an interview with CNN published on Tuesday that Trump could also reignite inflation by sending out $2,000 checks to everyone, as this would likely increase demand for goods and services without a corresponding increase in supply.
"All of this is exactly the wrong recipe if you want to get inflation under control and make things feel more affordable," she said.
York also said in a separate interview with the Associated Press that it makes little sense to cut Americans a check when one of the main reasons they're paying more for so many products has been the president's tariffs.
"If the goal is relief for Americans, just get rid of the tariffs," she said.
Michael Pearce, deputy chief US economist at Oxford Economics, echoed York's concern about the dividend checks worsening inflation, and he told CNN that the risk with Trump's plan is "if you add a stimulus check on top of a tax cut refund, you're going to overheat the economy."
University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers was even more blunt in his take on Trump's tariff dividend idea, which he labeled, "insane, unfair, pointless and dumb."
"If tariffs are making Americans poorer," Wolfers told CNN, "the simplest and fairest way to stop that is not to tariff."
"The quality of a public education greatly hinges on our efforts to sufficiently invest in our schools and teachers," the new report stresses, calling for "targeted and sustained investments."
The gap between the weekly wages of US public school teachers and other college graduates not only continued to grow last year, but "reached a record high," according to a report released Wednesday by a pair of think tanks.
Sylvia Allegretto, a senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and research associate at the Economic Policy Institute, found that this gap, known as the teacher pay penalty, grew to 26.9% in 2024, "a significant increase from 6.1% in 1996."
Allegretto tracked data back even further—to 1979, when teachers earned an average of $1,219 a week, while other graduates earned $1,580, adjusted for inflation. In 2024, those figures rose to $1,447 for teachers and $2,361 for other similarly educated workers.
The numbers above are simple averages. The researcher also aimed to "estimate weekly wages of public school teachers relative to other similarly situated college graduates working in other professions," accounting for "ways the two groups may differ fundamentally which typically affect pay on margins such as age, educational attainment, race/ethnicity, and state of residence."
She found a "nearly 30-year trend of relative teacher weekly wages increasingly falling behind those of other similarly qualified professionals." While the gap averaged 8.7% pre-1994, "the shortfall worsened considerably starting in the mid-1990s."
In 1996, "on average, teachers earned 73.1 cents on the dollar in 2024, compared with what similar college graduates earned
working in other professions—much less than the relative 93.9 cents on the dollar that teachers earned in 1996," the report says.
Allegretto also separated workers by gender, and found that while the relative female teacher weekly wage "was at a premium that averaged 3.3%" before 1994, "starting in 1996, the female gap quickly went from parity to a penalty, landing at a 21.5% penalty in 2024."
As the report details:
There is an important story behind the declining relative wages experienced by female teachers. Historically, the teaching profession relied on a somewhat captive labor pool of educated women who had few employment opportunities. This is thankfully no longer the case, but increased opportunity costs are a part of the story and reflected in these results. Expanding opportunities for women enabled them to earn more as they entered occupations and professions from which they were once barred.
In fact, the simple average weekly wages (inflation-adjusted) of female teachers compared with their nonteaching counterparts grew in lock step from 1979 until they started to diverge in the late 1990s. They were close to parity in 1996, when other female college graduates earned just 0.7% more than female teachers. But this divide grew nearly every year—reaching 40.9% in 2024.
Conversely, the trends in the weekly wages of male teachers compared with other male college graduates were never at parity. But like their female counterparts, men also experienced a considerable increase in the pay gap—from 24.1% in 1996 to 81.7% in 2024. Therefore, the regression-adjusted relative wages of male teachers have seen sizable penalties throughout the timeframe of this paper (1979–2024) and in my earlier analyses using 1960, 1970, and 1980 decennial Census data. Over the long run, the male relative penalty worsened from 20.5% in 1960 to 36.3% in 2024.
While all states and the District of Columbia have a wage gap between teachers and similar graduates, Allegretto examined how the penalties vary by state. The biggest penalties since 2019 were recorded in Colorado (38.5%), Alabama (34.3%), Arizona (33.8%), Minnesota (33.3%), and Virginia (32.7%), while the lowest were Rhode Island (10%), Wyoming (11%), New Jersey (12.7%), Vermont (13%), and South Carolina (14.1%).
Allegretto also acknowledged "the view that, on average in the US, teachers generally receive a larger share of their total compensation as benefits—such as health or other insurance and retirement plans—compared with other professionals."
From 2020-24, "the benefits advantage that favors teachers varied from 8.8% to 9.9%, but over the same timeframe the teacher wage penalty grew substantially. Thus, in 2024, the teacher total compensation gap widened to -17.1%—the largest on record," she wrote. "Of course, even if the teacher benefits advantage could exceed the large teacher wage penalty, the standard of living for teachers would likely fall, as they would have little in the way of earnings to make ends meet."
In 2024, teachers earned 73 cents for every dollar their similarly educated peers made, on average—a record low.In 1996, the gap was much smaller: teachers earned 94 cents for every dollar.We need to pay teachers more! How? By investing in public education. www.epi.org/publication/...
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— Economic Policy Institute (@epi.org) September 24, 2025 at 9:59 AM
The report says that trends from "the last three decades have no doubt already had profound consequences on teacher retention and recruitment," citing research on staffing challenges, college students forgoing teaching careers due to low wages, parents steering their children into professions that pay better, fast-tracking credentials in response to shortages, the heavy use of unqualified teachers, and the reliance on unqualified substitutes.
"The quality of a public education greatly hinges on our efforts to sufficiently invest in our schools and teachers," the publication stresses, calling for "targeted and sustained investments" at the local, state, and federal levels, and the expansion of collective bargaining.
"Regrettably, sustained and effective policy interventions capable of mitigating, much less substantially improving, the trends outlined in this long-running series have been lacking," concludes the report. "This is a troublesome reality, especially in the United States—a country that has more than enough resources and wealth to be the envy of public education around the world."
The publication comes as President Donald Trump works to dismantle the US Department of Education and elected Republicans, along with some Democrats, try to push tax dollars toward private and charter schools.
Amid such efforts this summer, Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) held a town hall with educators and introduced the Pay Teachers Act, which would ensure they earn at least $60,000 annually, require districts to give raises throughout teachers' careers, and provide at least $1,000 per year for classroom supplies.