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jobs
Fed Governor Warns 'Job Growth Has Probably Been Negative' as US Labor Market Stalls
One market analyst said the US jobs market is going through "bed rot."
Oct 10, 2025
Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve governor, warned on Friday that the US labor market at the moment is in poor shape and showing little sign of improvement.
In an interview on CNBC, Waller said that the data released by processing firm ADP earlier this month showing that the economy lost 32,000 jobs in September was "consistent with what we're starting to see with [Bureau of Labor Statistics] data."
"Job growth has probably been negative the last few months," he explained. "It doesn't look like it's doing much better. Anecdotally... I don't hear anybody with big hiring plans. All I ever hear is, 'We're not backfilling, we're not firing, we're holding off any job things.' That's the anecdotal evidence."
Fed Governor Christopher Waller: "Job growth has probably been negative the last few months. it doesn't look like it's doing much better. I don't hear anybody with big hiring plans." pic.twitter.com/aXDZPNTixq
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 10, 2025
Waller's analysis was shared by Ed Al-Hussainy, rates strategist with Columbia Threadneedle investments, who told Axios on Friday that the job market was "bed rotting," with employers reluctant to make any major hiring commitments in the face of economic uncertainty.
Al-Hussainy also warned that the current problems with the job market could "continue to get worse, until they reach a tipping point where consumption starts to degrade, and then you have another recession scare."
Earlier in the week, Fortune reported that Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimated that there was "essentially no job growth" in the last month, while pointing to the Conference Board's recent report showing that US consumers haven't been this pessimistic about the labor market since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic.
"There’s no better predictor of changes in unemployment, which thus likely rose again in September," he added.
Abby McCloskey, a columnist at Bloomberg and a former economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, argued in a Friday column that the US economy had now slowed down so much that even supporters of President Donald Trump were rating it unfavorably.
"Only 44% of Republicans think the economy is excellent or good, according to new data from the Pew Research Center," McCloskey explained. "Compare this to the soaring approval of GOP voters in Trump’s first term before Covid hit—when 81% thought the economy was good."
She then noted that, despite a record-breaking stock market and stabilized inflation, voters' concerns about the economy appeared to be justified.
"Despite enormous tax cuts in this summer’s reconciliation bill and sweeping reductions to the federal workforce—things Republicans would typically cheer—tariffs and political uncertainty are taking a toll," she argued. "When a voter balances the tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act against tariffs raising prices on everything from groceries to clothes, it feels like running just to stay in place."
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‘People’s Jobs Report’ From Economic Justice Campaigners Shows Harm of GOP Policies
"Trump stopped the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing its monthly jobs report," said one advocate. "But people deserve to know just how bad Trump's economy is."
Oct 03, 2025
With the US government entering the third day of a shutdown Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics didn't release the monthly jobs report as scheduled—but one economic justice group said that even without the official analysis of the labor market, it's clear that President Donald Trump and the Republican Party's policies have "devastated workers and families," with the shutdown making matters worse for millions.
Unrig Our Economy provided its own People's Jobs Report to "fill the gaps" left by Republicans, who have refused to agree to Democrats' demands to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts in a spending bill to keep the government open.
Trump and GOP leaders have falsely claimed that Democrats are demanding "free healthcare" for undocumented immigrants—who are not eligible for government-run healthcare programs like Medicaid. The Democratic Party and experts have warned that the expiration of the ACA subsidies would raise healthcare premiums by 75% for millions of Americans.
Unrig Our Economy noted in its "Jobs Day" report that the expiration of the tax credits could also cost the US economy nearly 300,000 jobs in the next year, including 130,000 jobs lost "because of direct reductions in the provision of hospital, physician, and other ambulatory care as well as reductions in pharmacy-related services."
As the Commonwealth Fund reported in March, 156,000 jobs could be lost next year in sectors including manufacturing, retail, and real estate "as a result of the indirect or induced effects of healthcare funding losses," with rural communities among the hardest-hit areas.
“This ‘People’s Jobs Report’ from Unrig Our Economy shows how destructive Republican policies have been on the economy."
Those projected losses would compound "some of the most alarming economic developments" under the Republican-controlled government, said Unrig Our Economy.
The group cited an ADP report which found that while official statistics can't be reported as long as the BLS is closed, US companies shed an estimated 32,000 jobs in September.
About 13,000 jobs were lost in June, the group noted—the first time the economy lost jobs since 2020. The unemployment rate in last month's BLS report stood at 4.3%—the highest it's been since 2021.
Unemployment claims also rose to nearly 2 million in August—the highest since 2021—while Trump's tariff policies have "caused chaos for employers" including small businesses, where employment has dropped by 26,700 since the president took office for his second term in January.
"In tariff-related industries, payrolls fell by 90,100 jobs, including 42,000 jobs in manufacturing," said Unrig Our Economy. "Wholesale trade jobs fell by more than 26,000 since January and mining and logging jobs fell by 12,000 during the same period."
The group released its report a day after Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) called on the federal government to move forward with releasing the official jobs report despite the government shut down. Democrats have warned that the Trump administration has kept Americans in the dark about the true state of the economy, including when the president demanded the firing of Erika McEntarfer, who until August was the commissioner of the BLS.
McEntarfer was dismissed after the agency released a jobs report that showed the economy had added only 73,000 jobs in July—data that Trump baselessly claimed had been falsified to harm him politically. Her departure, however, didn't stop the flow of negative news about the economy under Republican leadership; the jobs report released in early September showed only 22,000 jobs created the previous month.
“Donald Trump’s economic agenda is inflicting massive pain on our economy and to add to the economic uncertainty, he’s shut down the government rather than save healthcare for millions of Americans," said Warren on Thursday. "But let’s be clear: The jobs data scheduled to come out this Friday has undoubtedly been collected and the president must release it. Without it, the Federal Reserve will not have the full picture it needs to make decisions this month about interest rates that will impact every family across the country. Donald Trump has the power to make sure the federal government can continue producing and releasing this critical information on Friday and beyond during his shutdown.”
William Beach, a former commissioner of the BLS, said this week that the September jobs data has been collected.
"Trump stopped the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing its monthly jobs report because Americans are struggling, and the numbers are disastrous," said Alexandra De Luca of American Bridge 21st Century. "But people deserve to know just how bad Trump's economy is."
A Bloomberg poll of economists found that employers likely added 53,000 jobs last month—fewer than the average of 64,000 added over the previous six months—and the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago estimated that the unemployment rate has remained at 4.3%.
“Working people deserve a government that lowers their healthcare costs and creates good-paying jobs,” said Leor Tal, Unrig Our Economy campaign director Leor Tal. “This People’s Jobs Report from Unrig Our Economy shows how destructive Republican policies have been on the economy. Not only are Republicans in Congress tanking the economy by raising costs on families and cutting essential programs that help them make ends meet, but they’re destroying jobs too—all while giving billionaires massive tax breaks.”
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'Business Continues to Be Severely Depressed': New Reports Paint Dark Picture of Trump Economy
"The addition of the derivative steel and aluminum tariffs in the middle of the month... was devastating," said one manufacturing executive.
Oct 01, 2025
Two reports released Wednesday paint an increasingly dark picture of the American economy under US President Donald Trump, matching predictions that his tax policy and chaotic tariffs would ultimately harm workers and put a drag on the nation's financial outlook.
First, processing firm ADP estimated in its latest monthly report that the US economy lost 32,000 jobs in September, with contractions in employment happening across multiple industries.
The leisure and hospitality industry was hardest hit, as ADP estimated it lost 19,000 jobs last month, followed by professional and business services, which lost an estimated 13,000 jobs, and financial activities, which lost an estimated 9,000 jobs.
Small businesses took the biggest hit, as they shed 40,000 employees on the month, ADP estimated.
Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said these latest numbers validate "what we've been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring."
The ADP report is not seen as reliable as the monthly jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, although that report will not be released on Friday as previously scheduled due to the current shutdown of the federal government.
In addition to the ADP survey, the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI Report revealed that the "manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month" amid uncertainty caused in large part by Trump's tariffs.
Comments made by executives in the new ISM survey point to a dire situation facing many US manufacturers.
"Business continues to be severely depressed," said one respondent. "Profits are down and extreme taxes (tariffs) are being shouldered by all companies in our space. We have increased price pressures both to our inputs and customer outputs as companies are starting to pass on tariffs via surcharges, raising prices up to 20 percent."
This executive, who works for a transportation equipment firm, added that "the addition of the derivative steel and aluminum tariffs in the middle of the month—with no announcement—was devastating."
An executive at an electrical equipment supplier, meanwhile, said that "customer orders are depressed for heavy machinery because tariffs are so impactful to high-end capital equipment." The executive said their company's revenue projections were flat for the rest of the year, with "no outlook to improve in 2026."
Another manufacturing executive simply said, "Steel tariffs are killing us."
This gloomy sentiment isn't just shared by business executives, but also US consumers. The Conference Board on Tuesday released its Consumer Confidence Index showing a "sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation" in the US.
Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, noted that consumer confidence numbers are now the lowest they've been since April 2025, when Trump sent shockwaves through the economy by announcing his so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs that he partially backed away from in the face of a cratering stock market.
"Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low," Guichard explained. "This is consistent with the decline in job openings."
The Conference Board also found that consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions was once again below the threshold that "typically signals a recession ahead."
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