As 2026 Begins, the Pendulum Is Swinging Toward War and Oppression

The beginning of 2026 falls into a period of increasing global social destruction. Multilateral institutions such as the United Nations and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE are being systematically destroyed. Countries such as the US and Russia are withdrawing from these institutions or attempting to obstruct them through blocking behavior.

Rich and Undemocratic ‘elites’ Are Appropriating the State

US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are political leaders who are dismantling or destroying the remnants of democracy in their countries, increasing repressive pressure on their populations, and acting aggressively toward the outside world. They find international law rather annoying, ignore it, and develop a right-wing and authoritarian nationalism, within the framework of which the ruling circles in the US and Russia enrich themselves excessively and disregard everything that previous values in terms of decency and justice demand.

This goes hand in hand with a publicly declared shift in the definition of terrorism. People who demonstrate by peaceful and legitimate means against the excesses of the system and the policies of the corrupt and enriching class are not seen as opposition figures with a legitimate claim, but are increasingly classified as terrorists and criminals. This is the case, for example, in the US, Russia, and Turkey. The aim is to intimidate people and, once they are caught, to lock them up without a fair trial.

The self-enrichment of people who are already rich, multimillionaires and billionaires, goes hand in hand with the widening of the social divide in the countries affected. The lower social classes are deprived of what the super rich acquire. The USA is one example among many: Taxes have been drastically reduced for the rich, while at the same time the government is trying to withdraw healthcare support from millions of people.

The World Does Not Consist Only of the West

Certainly, only a few selected aspects can be addressed here.

The Global South is trying to organize itself and is pushing for a say in decision-making and an end to unfair economic exchange relationships. However, huge Western corporations continue to seek contact with regional despots and corrupt African leaders in order to gain access to Africa's mineral resources. South America is also affected by the eco-imperialist encroachments of the US. The US government even openly admits that its aggression in Venezuela, for example, is motivated by a desire to secure and exploit the world's largest oil reserves there.

Even if the pendulum has swung in the wrong direction so far, only gradual and internationally coordinated disarmament could enable an effective peace dividend that could be used to combat world hunger and the climate catastrophe.

China's role in the world is not yet clear. The People's Republic of China is attempting to gain economic access to the global economy and is particularly focused on its own interests in this regard. Step by step, internal social surveillance and repression are also being intensified. Ultimately, the assessment of China will be decided by the development of the Taiwan issue and China's behavior in Southeast Asia, particularly with regard to territorial issues in the South China Sea with other Southeast Asian neighboring countries.

Israel's government, which is in part right-wing extremist, has reacted completely disproportionately to the terrible attack by Hamas. Approximately 60,000 Palestinians, half of them women and children, were killed and the Gaza Strip was almost completely destroyed. It will take generations to overcome the hatred resulting from these murders and killings.

In Sudan, a civil war supported by foreign powers is raging, with mass rape and killings. Over 10 million people are fleeing Sudan.

Massive Armament Programs Promise a Deceptive Sense of Security

The eco-imperialist and geostrategic wars instigated by right-wing nationalist governments are also coming closer and closer to the center of Europe. Concerns about being drawn into a war over Russia's attack on Ukraine are spreading there as well. At the same time, almost all European countries are arming themselves militarily, incurring massive debt, and wasting the resources of future generations on the destructive production of increasingly dangerous weapons.

This leads to substantial returns for the owners and shareholders of the arms industry. The political-military-industrial complex is functioning and is becoming increasingly accepted by society through media influence, growing fear of war, and the creation of jobs.

The new weapons systems below the nuclear threshold are becoming increasingly dangerous. Hypersonic missiles in particular pose a major threat, as they are capable of carrying out "decapitation strikes" that are difficult to intercept due to their high speed and maneuverability. The planned deployment of hypersonic missiles and cruise missiles under US command in Germany in 2026 is a provocation that the peace movement is trying to resist.

The ever-evolving drones with increasingly dangerous warheads are also changing the war situation not only on the front lines, but also for civil societies at home. No one is safe from the drones lurking in war zones anymore. Drone operators, hidden in the hinterland, can kill and destroy with relatively little risk.

Nuclear weapons systems are currently being modernized in all nuclear states with huge investments and developed to be increasingly dangerous. These states hope that the deterrent effect will provide security and also enable them to assert their geostrategic interests with the conventional weapons systems of a nuclear power. There are now also calls for a nuclear protective shield for Europe. But the security promise of a nuclear protective shield is an illusion. No country in the world is capable of reliably defending itself against attacking hybrid weapon systems, which also include hypersonic missiles with nuclear warheads.

But even without the use of nuclear weapons, modern society is extremely vulnerable. Drone and hacker attacks on critical infrastructure cannot be defended against in their entirety. They can lead to chaos in a society and the collapse of the social organization of life, combined with social unrest, violence, and looting.

Ultimately, societies can only be protected from these dangers by reorganizing and restructuring their multilateral relations in a cooperative direction. Even if the pendulum has swung in the wrong direction so far, only gradual and internationally coordinated disarmament could enable an effective peace dividend that could be used to combat world hunger and the climate catastrophe. This can only be achieved through a significant reform of the United Nations. In particular, the right of aggressive states such as Russia and the US to block decisions in the highest bodies of the UN, especially the UN Security Council, must be abolished. Overall, the United Nations needs to be strengthened and democratized.

AI Can Have Positive but Also Dangerous Effects

The further development of artificial intelligence (AI) in connection with newer weapon systems means that humans are increasingly losing control over weapons. AI information is difficult to verify when decisions must be made within minutes about whether a nuclear attack is taking place and a counterattack should be launched. In such cases, decision-makers are ultimately at the mercy of AI, which transmits messages based on information from hundreds of sensors. Misinformation cannot be clarified. There is a risk of accidental nuclear war.

In this context, it is also important to warn very clearly about the danger of superintelligence developing on the internet, AI that becomes autonomous. Superintelligence achieves cognitive performance that far exceeds human capabilities and intelligence. Such AI could have a disruptive or even destructive effect on critical infrastructure and, in the worst case, gain uncontrolled access to nuclear weapons systems.

AI can be used positively in many ways, such as in skin cancer screening or language translation. However, there must be no unrestrained AI development in the hands of large, profit-oriented tech companies. Instead, development must be controlled by ethically guided international rules and strictly sanctioned in the event of violations.

The World Is Increasingly on the Run

Millions of people, especially in the Global South, are currently fleeing the consequences of the climate crisis and wars that are destroying their livelihoods. At the same time, the countries of the Global North are trying to shield themselves from these refugee movements. This is also being done in the defense against right-wing extremist political movements and parties, which exploit the flight of these people for their political propaganda. Nevertheless, even countries that still seriously pursue democratic goals are threatened by right-wing extremist takeovers of their governments.

That is how things currently stand. It would be wrong to look away or gloss over the situation.

And yet: Perspectives for Positive Developments

Especially in this difficult global situation, it is important to pay attention to social countermovements and successful examples of social organization and social resistance against the destruction of civilization.

The pendulum may well swing back when the civilian population and parts of the ruling classes realize that war is not a solution to global problems, but only costs livelihoods, human lives, financial resources, and destroys our shared world.

The influence of those parts of the global economy that compete with the political-military-industrial complex and depend on peace and the undisturbed global exchange of goods and services should not be underestimated. They will try to assert their influence.

People in a society will not put up with decades of oppression and exploitation.

The trillions of dollars that will be spent in the future on measures to prevent and mitigate the approaching climate catastrophe will also give large sections of society pause for thought. The climate catastrophe will occur earlier than expected due to emissions from wars and military operations. If, in addition, social resources are invested in wars and states go into debt for this purpose, they will lack the financial resources and social energy to even begin to address human-made climate change.

Even if the world's largest fossil fuel dealers try to assert their interests by military means, their time will be up in the medium term. The development of technology based on renewable energy generation can no longer be stopped globally.

Furthermore, people in a society will not put up with decades of oppression and exploitation. They will reorganize themselves into civil society and begin to work together to bring about change, even in the face of pressure from authoritarian societies.

These are some weighty arguments as to why the current destruction can develop in a more constructive direction and the pendulum can swing back.

In addition to these economic, sociopolitical, and peace-ecological perspectives, there are other developments in which new ideas are already being tried out, new forms of community life and work are emerging, and civil society protest movements are evolving.

Thus, the new is already emerging from the old.

Even though many things are currently moving in the wrong direction, there are also reasons for hope and prospects for positive developments. I still believe that a peaceful and sustainably developed world is possible through a realignment of social conditions at the local, national, regional, and global levels.

But all those who see this and desire it must intensify and expand their efforts together. A social realignment can only come about if visions of social development based on precise analysis are thought through, then formulated in a way that is feasible and can be put into practice.