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President Donald Trump speaks alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) outside the West Wing of the White House on September 29, 2026.
(Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Disastrous Sign for GOP as Polls Show Independent Revolt Against Trump Economy
One new survey shows that nearly two-thirds of independents believe the US economy is heading in the wrong direction—up from 48% before President Donald Trump took office.
Oct 15, 2026
Polling data released Thursday shows that key segments of the American electorate—particularly independents and rural voters—are increasingly disaffected by President Donald Trump's stewardship of the US economy as inflation accelerates, real wages fall, and the historically unpopular war with Iran continues with no end in sight, spelling a potential midterm disaster for the Republican Party.
A Harris poll conducted for The Guardian shows that nearly two-thirds of independents believe the US economy is heading in the wrong direction—up from 48% in September 2024, before President Donald Trump won reelection to his second White House term.
"Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned," The Guardian reported. "In February 2025, just a few weeks after Trump was inaugurated, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism was up to 49%. In the latest poll, just 28% of Republicans said the economy is getting better."
Two-thirds of participants in the new Harris survey pointed to gas and grocery prices—both of which have risen significantly during Trump's second term—as their top issues heading into the November midterms. Living expenses, healthcare costs, and foreign affairs also ranked as important issues.
The poll also found that 40% of rural voters—a key constituency of the president's—are in "survival mode," unable to withstand one surprise bill.
"When asked what is most affecting today’s gas prices, 46% of rural Americans said the US government compared with 28% of Republicans who said the same," The Guardian reported. "Republicans were the least likely of any group to blame the US government, instead spreading the blame across oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations."
Separately, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released polling on Thursday that reinforces the Harris survey's findings, showing that "the critical bloc of voters who identify as independents is much more likely to have a negative view of the Republicans than of the Democrats."
The AP-NORC poll also found that just 36% of US voters approve of Trump's handling of the presidency. That same percentage has a favorable view of the Republican Party, the survey shows.
"Democrats and independents are much likelier than Republicans to want a full overhaul of the country’s direction," AP reported. "But even Republican voters are still looking for something different. Slightly fewer than half, 45%, want substantial change, while 13% want upheaval."
An additional survey released on Thursday by Project 270 shows that 67% of swing-state voters want to "end US wars overseas," 51% "recognize Israel's actions in Gaza as a genocide," and 50% support halting "all military aid to Israel"—positions that run counter to the Trump administration's views and actions.
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Polling data released Thursday shows that key segments of the American electorate—particularly independents and rural voters—are increasingly disaffected by President Donald Trump's stewardship of the US economy as inflation accelerates, real wages fall, and the historically unpopular war with Iran continues with no end in sight, spelling a potential midterm disaster for the Republican Party.
A Harris poll conducted for The Guardian shows that nearly two-thirds of independents believe the US economy is heading in the wrong direction—up from 48% in September 2024, before President Donald Trump won reelection to his second White House term.
"Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned," The Guardian reported. "In February 2025, just a few weeks after Trump was inaugurated, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism was up to 49%. In the latest poll, just 28% of Republicans said the economy is getting better."
Two-thirds of participants in the new Harris survey pointed to gas and grocery prices—both of which have risen significantly during Trump's second term—as their top issues heading into the November midterms. Living expenses, healthcare costs, and foreign affairs also ranked as important issues.
The poll also found that 40% of rural voters—a key constituency of the president's—are in "survival mode," unable to withstand one surprise bill.
"When asked what is most affecting today’s gas prices, 46% of rural Americans said the US government compared with 28% of Republicans who said the same," The Guardian reported. "Republicans were the least likely of any group to blame the US government, instead spreading the blame across oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations."
Separately, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released polling on Thursday that reinforces the Harris survey's findings, showing that "the critical bloc of voters who identify as independents is much more likely to have a negative view of the Republicans than of the Democrats."
The AP-NORC poll also found that just 36% of US voters approve of Trump's handling of the presidency. That same percentage has a favorable view of the Republican Party, the survey shows.
"Democrats and independents are much likelier than Republicans to want a full overhaul of the country’s direction," AP reported. "But even Republican voters are still looking for something different. Slightly fewer than half, 45%, want substantial change, while 13% want upheaval."
An additional survey released on Thursday by Project 270 shows that 67% of swing-state voters want to "end US wars overseas," 51% "recognize Israel's actions in Gaza as a genocide," and 50% support halting "all military aid to Israel"—positions that run counter to the Trump administration's views and actions.
Polling data released Thursday shows that key segments of the American electorate—particularly independents and rural voters—are increasingly disaffected by President Donald Trump's stewardship of the US economy as inflation accelerates, real wages fall, and the historically unpopular war with Iran continues with no end in sight, spelling a potential midterm disaster for the Republican Party.
A Harris poll conducted for The Guardian shows that nearly two-thirds of independents believe the US economy is heading in the wrong direction—up from 48% in September 2024, before President Donald Trump won reelection to his second White House term.
"Even within the Republican ranks, optimism has waned," The Guardian reported. "In February 2025, just a few weeks after Trump was inaugurated, 39% of Republicans said the economy was getting better. By February 2026, just before the US launched attacks against Iran, that optimism was up to 49%. In the latest poll, just 28% of Republicans said the economy is getting better."
Two-thirds of participants in the new Harris survey pointed to gas and grocery prices—both of which have risen significantly during Trump's second term—as their top issues heading into the November midterms. Living expenses, healthcare costs, and foreign affairs also ranked as important issues.
The poll also found that 40% of rural voters—a key constituency of the president's—are in "survival mode," unable to withstand one surprise bill.
"When asked what is most affecting today’s gas prices, 46% of rural Americans said the US government compared with 28% of Republicans who said the same," The Guardian reported. "Republicans were the least likely of any group to blame the US government, instead spreading the blame across oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations."
Separately, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released polling on Thursday that reinforces the Harris survey's findings, showing that "the critical bloc of voters who identify as independents is much more likely to have a negative view of the Republicans than of the Democrats."
The AP-NORC poll also found that just 36% of US voters approve of Trump's handling of the presidency. That same percentage has a favorable view of the Republican Party, the survey shows.
"Democrats and independents are much likelier than Republicans to want a full overhaul of the country’s direction," AP reported. "But even Republican voters are still looking for something different. Slightly fewer than half, 45%, want substantial change, while 13% want upheaval."
An additional survey released on Thursday by Project 270 shows that 67% of swing-state voters want to "end US wars overseas," 51% "recognize Israel's actions in Gaza as a genocide," and 50% support halting "all military aid to Israel"—positions that run counter to the Trump administration's views and actions.
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