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"The Fed's continued high interest rates saddle people with debt, lock them out of the housing market, and threaten their jobs," said Rakeen Mabud of the Groundwork Collaborative.
The top economist at a progressive watchdog organization said Wednesday that the Federal Reserve has supplanted inflation as the greatest danger to the U.S. economy after new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index fell below 3% last month—the first time it has done so since 2021.
"Inflation is no longer the biggest threat to the economy, the Fed is," said Groundwork Collaborative chief economist Rakeen Mabud, citing the central bank's persistent refusal to cut interest rates in the face of glaring warning signs throughout the U.S. economy, from the worsening housing crisis to slowing job growth. Housing costs accounted for "nearly 90% of the monthly increase" in consumer prices, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
"The Fed's continued high interest rates saddle people with debt, lock them out of the housing market, and threaten their jobs," Mabud said Wednesday. "The Federal Reserve should hold an emergency meeting and cut rates immediately."
The Fed's current target interest rate range is at a 23-year high of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it has been kept for the past 12 months despite mounting calls for rate cuts from progressive lawmakers and economists as inflation continues to decline from its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
"The Federal Reserve made a massive mistake in not cutting rates in July."
Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, said in a statement Wednesday that "the evidence is clear: Inflation is falling and wages are rising."
"It's past time for the Fed to secure this progress and begin lowering interest rates," Boyle added.
The next official two-day meeting of the Fed's policy-setting panel, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is scheduled for September 17-18. After Wednesday's inflation reading, the central bank is widely expected to enact a small rate cut at its September meeting, which will be held less than two months before the presidential election.
Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, has openly warned Powell against cutting rates prior to the election, apparently fearing the move would help Democrats.
Democratic lawmakers, for their part, have argued that a failure to cut rates "would indicate that the Fed is giving in to bullying" and "succumbing to political threats," as Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) put it in a
letter to Powell last month.
In an op-ed for Common Dreams last week, Mabud of the Groundwork Collaborative wrote that "the Federal Reserve made a massive mistake in not cutting rates in July."
"Powell himself has admitted that interest rate hikes can't tackle the supply-side issues at the root of today's inflation," Mabud wrote. "And now the data are clear that he is taking the economy to the brink, despite low inflation and rising unemployment."
"Making people walk an economic tightrope is not the path forward to a healthy economy," she added. "The Fed has a dual mandate to maintain stable prices and full employment. It's time for the Fed to take that mandate seriously and make a large and immediate emergency rate cut."
Democrats have handled the economy better than Republicans since at least 1949.
A study published by the Economic Policy Institute on Tuesday finds that the U.S. economy does better when a Democrat is in the White House than when a Republican is in charge.
The study looked at GDP growth, job growth, inflation-adjusted wage growth, the unemployment rate, and more. It found that Democrats have had an economic advantage since at least 1949.
"This Democratic advantage is across the board in all variables we measure but strongest in private-sector outcomes—notably, business investment, job growth, and the growth of market-based incomes," it says.
The US economy performs much better during Democratic presidential administrations than during Republican ones, according to a new report from EPI's @joshbivens_DC https://t.co/LN0cnSjKwI pic.twitter.com/29zEcZXrKD
— Economic Policy Institute (@EconomicPolicy) April 2, 2024
The study shows there is a "pronounced Democratic advantage in nearly every measure of macroeconomic performance." Despite this, the study notes that Republicans are typically seen as better at managing the economy in opinion polls.
"It is difficult to tell what respondents to opinion polls have in mind when they are asked about 'the economy.' For example, respondents often rate the Republican party higher as economic managers yet rate the Democratic party more highly on issues related to healthcare," the study says. "But healthcare is, by far, the single largest sector of the U.S. economy, affecting economic outcomes of households, businesses, and governments in significant ways."
The study also found that economic gains are "distributed substantially more equally" when a Democrat is in the White House.
The study notes that not all of the economic figures can be attributed to policy, as some of it is simply luck, but the trend appears to be that the economy does better overall when a Democrat is president.
"One would expect that the large role of chance would (almost by definition) cut uniformly across the partisan composition of presidential administrations. And yet the Democratic advantage in economic performance by partisan control of the presidency is striking," the study says.
The increased frequency of natural disasters caused by climate change is having major economic effects, according to reinsurance company Swiss Re.
The climate crisis is already having a major impact on the U.S. economy, and the damages are only going to increase.
A new report from the reinsurance company Swiss Re estimates climate change is currently costing the U.S. roughly $97 billion per year. This cost comes from the increased frequency of natural disasters that are connected to climate change, which is driven by the burning of fossil fuels.
"Climate change is leading to more severe weather events, resulting in increasing impact on economies," said the Swiss Re group's chief economist Jerome Jean Haegeli. "Therefore, it becomes even more crucial to take adaptation measures."
Swiss Re looked at data from 2022 and analyzed the impact of natural disasters on the GDP of 36 countries, including the U.S., to establish its findings. The report focused on the effects of floods, tropical cyclones, winter storms, and severe thunderstorms.
While the effects of climate change on the U.S. economy were significant, the country that was most affected by it was the Philippines. The report says climate change impacted 3% of the country's GDP. The U.S. saw a 0.4% impact on its yearly economic output.
The report states that all countries must do whatever possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to help lessen the potential economic costs of climate change-related natural disasters. It says countries must also better prepare for the effects of climate change to reduce these costs.
One effect of climate change, increased heatwaves, was not factored into this report. A study from 2022 found that human-caused increases in heatwaves potentially cost the global economy over $29 trillion between 1992 and 2013.
Some experts have suggested the effects of climate change are actually costing the U.S. over $120 billion per year. While there's no universally agreed upon number, it's clear that the costs of the climate crisis are high, and they'll only increase as it gets worse. Decarbonizing the economy isn't a cheap endeavor, but letting climate change spiral out of control would have much more dire economic effects.