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Daily news & progressive opinion—funded by the people, not the corporations—delivered straight to your inbox.
"Congress has a choice—they can either extend a failed policy or create tax reform that actually works for Main Street and communities."
As the Trump administration and congressional Republicans pursue trillions of dollars in new tax giveaways for wealthy individuals and corporations, economists and pollsters this week are warning about how devastating the GOP's plan would be for small businesses and working families.
There Will Be Pain is the matter-of-fact title of a Thursday report from Josh Bivens, chief economist at the Economic Policy Institute (EPI). It details how extending the expiring provisions from the tax law that Republican lawmakers passed and Trump signed in 2017 "will have painful trade-offs for the U.S. economy and most Americans."
"The U.S. 'fiscal gap'—how much taxes need to be raised or spending cut to keep public debt stable as a share of gross domestic product—was entirely created by the Republican tax cuts of 2001, 2003, and 2017," Bivens wrote. "The 'tax gap'—the amount of taxes owed but not paid each year—is currently larger than the overall fiscal gap. It is driven by the richest U.S. households and businesses cheating the law and underpaying taxes."
Extending the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions, currently set to expire at the end of this year, "would increase the fiscal gap by nearly 50%, from 2.1% to 3.3%," Bivens explained. "No matter how these tax cuts are financed, the result will hurt most working families, especially low-income households."
"Cuts to key social insurance and income support programs like Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, commonly called food stamps) or Medicaid would do substantial damage to the nation's future workforce by depriving millions of children today of key health and developmental supports," he warned.
"Further, cuts of this size, if phased in quickly, would at minimum require the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates to avoid a recession," Bivens continued, "and could quite easily overwhelm any attempt by the Fed to buffer the economy from their effect, leading to recession and job losses."
The Republican playbook offers normal people crumbs and gives the cake to the rich. Extending Trump's 2017 tax cuts will give the bottom 60% $1.10 per day - but will give the top 1% $165 per day. Paying for this generosity to the top will cost working families dearly.
— Economic Policy Institute ( @epi.org) February 13, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Bivens argued that "expanding public investment and raising federal revenue via taxes that mostly come from high-income households is the most optimal way to close fiscal gap, boost economic productivity, and produce a fairer economy."
"If TCJA expansions for the rich are inevitable, this leaves three options: running deficits, increasing regressive taxes (in the form of tariffs, for example), or spending cuts," he added. "While none of these options is ideal, running deficits has the potential to be less harmful for American families, whereas regressive taxation and spending cuts will categorically cause the most harm."
The think tank published Bivens' report as a national coalition, Small Business for America's Future, released its findings from a survey of 863 small business owners' sentiments on the tax code, conducted from mid-December to late January.
The survey shows that just 3% of small business owners hired more workers as a result of the TCJA, 6% increased investments or employee wages, and 9% were able to pay down debts. Meanwhile, 43% reported no positive impact from the 2017 law.
The coalition found that small business owners are critical of the U.S. tax code in general and the TCJA specifically. Of those surveyed, 91% of said the tax code "favors large corporations over small businesses" and 76% report that wealthy individuals and big companies benefited most from the 2017 law, which critics have long called the "GOP Tax Scam."
The TCJA's small business pass-through deduction lets owners exclude up to 20% of their qualified business income from federal income tax. However, critics have called it complex and the survey shows that 39% of owners weren't sure if they claim the benefit.
The survey also highlights solutions that are popular with owners, such as exempting the first $25,000 of profit from federal income tax, creating a simplified standard deduction, making the tax code less complicated, and modernizing the Internal Revenue Service. Additionally, 61% of respondents support raising the corporate tax rate to pay for new small business tax benefits.
"By slashing the corporate tax rate permanently from 35% to 21%, while offering most small business owners only a temporary and complex 20% tax deduction, the TCJA created a two-tier tax system that overwhelmingly favored large corporations," said Walt Rowen, co-chair of Small Business for America's Future and president of the Susquehanna Glass Company in Pennsylvania.
"This isn't just hurting business owners—it's failing workers, families and local economies in every community across the country," Rowen added. "Now, Congress has a choice—they can either extend a failed policy or create tax reform that actually works for Main Street and communities."
The GOP controls the White House and both chambers of Congress, but those surveyed by the coalition were divided in terms of political parties: 23% said they didn't know or preferred not to say while 29% identified as Republicans, 25% as Democrats, and 19% as Independents. More than three-quarters were age 55 or older, 56% were white, and just over half were men. A quarter of owners listed themselves as the only employee, and nearly half had just 1-10 workers.
"Small businesses create jobs, drive innovation, and provide essential services in every community across America. But this law has done nothing to help them fulfill their potential," said Anne Zimmerman, a coalition co-chair and certified public accountant in Ohio. "When nearly 40% of small business owners can't even determine if they received the law's main small business tax deduction, while large corporations got an immediate and permanent tax cut, something is fundamentally wrong with our approach."
The small business survey and EPI's report followed polling released Tuesday by Data for Progress, Groundwork Collaborative, and the Student Borrower Protection Center that shows a majority of Americans believe not only that the rich pay too little in taxes but also that lawmakers shouldn't slash popular programs to give them more tax cuts.
"Americans might not always see eye to eye, but one thing's clear: Nearly every voter—across party lines—wants to protect Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and SNAP," said Groundwork Collaborative. "Meanwhile, the GOP is pushing to gut them for even more tax breaks for the wealthy."
The Trump administration’s disastrous tax law paved the way for corporate America’s “mink coats and Cadillacs” moment.
In one of the more memorable scenes from the Scorcese mob classic Goodfellas, Jimmy scolds his co-conspirators for flaunting the spoils of their infamous Lufthansa Heist—the 1978 theft of $6 million in cash and jewels from New York’s JFK Airport.
“Didn’t I tell you not to get anything?” Jimmy snaps at Johnny, who had arrived at the Christmas party in a new pink Cadillac. Moments later, Frank walks in alongside a date donning a new mink coat, and Jimmy is incensed. “In two days, one guy gets a Caddy and one guy gets a $20,000 mink!”
The mob logic portrayed here—that when you hit a major lick, it’s best to lay low and not attract attention—seems innocent by the standards of the Trump administration’s signature heist: the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). That law paved the way for corporate America’s “mink coats and Cadillacs” moment by slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%—robbing the public of roughly $1.3 trillion and further enriching billionaires and top executives. In Goodfellas terms, that’s equal to 46,428 inflation-adjusted Lufthansa heists. And like Johnny and Frank, the corporations who scored the biggest windfalls have since done the opposite of lay low. They have instead gone on a years-long profiteering binge, rolling out some of the most egregious tactics to cash in even further.
In typical trickle-down fashion, the corporate rate cut was sold as a boon to workers and ordinary families. The Trump administration said the TCJA’s most expensive provision would boost wages to the tune of $4,000 per year. That promise, it turns out, was a fraud. According to a recent study, 90% of American workers received zero dollars from the TCJA’s corporate rate cut. Meanwhile, executive pay soared, and stock buybacks hit a record high $1 trillion in the year after it passed.
So what did the typical American family get if not a major boost in income? Junk fees, deceptive scams at the grocery store, price gouging, and major collusion scandals in everything from meatpacking to rentals to oil and gas. It can be said that the TCJA unleashed a greatest hits of predatory tactics by rewarding otherwise too-risky pricing schemes that push consumer loyalty to the brink. Lower taxes and record profits also mean more money to buy lobbying power in Washington to push for more tax cuts. In that way, our dangerously low-tax environment exposes all of us to the worst and riskiest corporate behavior.
Higher corporate taxation means fewer opportunities to hoard profits and rip off consumers, and more opportunities to invest in healthcare, child care, education, and jobs—the things proven to improve quality of life and democratize economic opportunity.
According to a February study from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP), 342 profitable corporations paid an effective tax rate of 14.1% from 2018 to 2022, well below the 21% signed into law by the Trump administration. Layered onto decades of corporate tax cuts, the TCJA pushed the U.S. to the very bottom of the OECD in terms of revenue raised from corporations as a share of the economy. And Republicans are poised to go even further if former U.S. President Donald Trump retakes the White House.
A recent analysis from CAP Action found that Trump’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate even further to 15% would provide the top 100 U.S. companies with an additional $48 billion gift every year. This means even more breathing room to test out the next wave of ripoff schemes needed to satisfy investors. Whether it’s major credit card companies jacking up APRs even further, Amazon running more casino-style pricing experiments, or Tyson Foods deploying more algorithms to allegedly collude on meat prices, lower taxation offers a sweet incentive to profiteer at the expense of consumers.
Raising the corporate tax rate won’t fix everything that’s broken with corporate America or our economy. But it will fundamentally change the economic rules. Higher corporate taxation means fewer opportunities to hoard profits and rip off consumers, and more opportunities to invest in healthcare, child care, education, and jobs—the things proven to improve quality of life and democratize economic opportunity.
Since the Trump tax cuts, the largest corporations have flaunted their record profits like caddies and minks, bragging on earnings calls about the new tricks they’re using to raise prices on consumers. The era of tax heists must end if we are to stop them. The time to end it is now.
Corporations using cash "to further enrich already affluent shareholders suggests that partially reversing the corporate rate cut, as President Biden has proposed, poses little risk to investment or the broader economy."
With a battle over congressional Republicans and former U.S. President Donald Trump's 2017 tax law brewing, a progressive think tank on Monday published an analysis that points to the surge in stock buybacks as proof that federal policymakers should raise the corporate tax rate.
When Trump—the presumptive GOP nominee to challenge President Joe Biden in November—signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, he declared that "corporations are literally going wild over this, I think even beyond my expectations."
Chuck Marr, vice president for federal tax policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) wrote in his new analysis that "other studies have shown that the corporate rate cut overwhelmingly benefits high-income people and has failed to deliver to workers the benefits its proponents promised."
He referenced research from the American Enterprise Institute, Brookings Institution, and University of North Carolina as well as the Joint Committee on Taxation and Federal Reserve Board that exposes how the law hasn't lived up to the GOP's claims.
"The fact that it also launched massive buybacks is a further reason why policymakers should revisit the rate cut next year—part of the larger course correction needed in the nation's revenue policies as major pieces of the 2017 law expire," Marr argued.
Buyback is a term for when a company purchases its own outstanding stock to reduce the number of shares on the market and increase the value of the remaining ones, a practice that further enriches shareholders.
"Excluding the pandemic-induced recession in 2020, buybacks have been markedly higher every year since the 2017 law, and are projected to top $1 trillion in 2025 for the first time," Marr noted, citing Goldman Sachs.
Some companies—such as John Deere—have even laid off workers while buying back stock, as Common Dreams has reported.
"The fact that corporations have significant excess cash beyond their investment needs and are using it to further enrich already affluent shareholders suggests that partially reversing the corporate rate cut, as President Biden has proposed, poses little risk to investment or the broader economy," Marr wrote. The president's proposed rate is 28%.
"Policymakers have an opportunity to move away from corporate tax cuts that haven't delivered on their economic promises and toward a tax system that raises more revenue through progressive policies like increasing the corporate tax rate," he explained. "They can then use those revenues for investments to make the economy work better for everyone, such as an expanded child tax credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, childcare, and housing."
Marr also urged lawmakers to go even further and "raise the excise tax on stock buybacks to 4% from the current 1%."
The CBBP is far from alone in framing the looming expiration of some tax cuts as a chance to pursue more progressive policy. In fact, the center is part of a coalition led by Groundwork Collaborative that is calling on Congress to "use the expiration of these provisions as an opportunity to address long-standing problems with our tax code, not just to tinker around the edges."
Some progressives on Capitol Hill—such as Sen Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who supports a wealth tax targeting the richest Americans—are also seizing the moment.
Warren said earlier this month: "It's time to stiffen our spines. President Biden is right: If the 2025 tax bill doesn't call on the wealthy and giant corporations to shoulder a bigger share of what it costs to run this country, Democrats should reject it outright. No more Trump tax breaks for billionaires."