Elections Analyst Says Trump Has 'Uniquely Hurt' His Own Voters Ahead of 2026

President Donald Trump's economic policies have hurt his own voters to such an extent that it's creating opportunities for Democrats in unexpected places, according to elections analyst Charlie Cook.

In an interview with The New Republic's Greg Sargent published Tuesday, Cook pointed to a number of Trump actions that have caused discontent among both swing voters and members of his base.

Cook pointed to Trump's illegal war with Iran as a particularly toxic policy, both because it broke a key 2024 campaign promise about no new wars in the Middle East, and because it has raised the price of countless consumer goods, including diesel fuel and fertilizer, both vitally important for US farmers.

"I mean, you take Iran—after promising no more wars and all that—but fuel, fertilizer, no more wars, you take tariffs," Cook said, "and all this goes to the heart of his base, of, you know, small-town, rural, farm, all of that."

"To have the people that are generally the most enthusiastic for you uniquely hurt," Cook added, "now, that’s new territory."

Cook said that Trump similarly hasn't helped himself with actions such as "redecorating the White House in Washington, self-aggrandizement, alienating allies, depleting military stockpiles," which the veteran analyst said further eroded voters' patience.

What the overall data shows, Cook concluded, is that Republicans are "underperforming in places that have just been gimme putts,” a development he described as “astonishing."

Cook isn't alone in noting the deep voter unhappiness. Some Republican running for reelection are showing signs of concern as well.

As noted in a CNN report published Monday, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) took out a negative ad targeting Democratic rival Adam Hamilton, whom polls suggest is creating a surprisingly close race in a state that Trump won by 14 points or more in all three of his presidential campaigns.

And Politico reported on Monday that Rep. Young Kim (D-Calif.) has deleted all references to Trump from her campaign's homepage, even though she used to tout herself as a "proven fighter who will stand with President Trump to deliver a bold America First Agenda."

According to CNN, Democrats in competitive races are hammering away at the broken promises Trump made on the economy during the 2024 presidential campaign, including his vow that prices would start coming down on his very first day in office.

"The word that I hear almost daily is ‘drowning,'" Rep. Kristen McDonald (D-Mich.) told CNN. "Families in my district are drowning, and it is so much worse for them now than it was two years ago."