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usmca
Farmers are in Trouble—Restructuring the USMCA Could Turn Things Around
New labeling requirements to ensure the integrity of domestic markets, as well as price guarantees tied to anti-dumping measures, could improve the economic prospects of producers amid our ongoing trade war.
Sep 16, 2025
Farmers may be the proverbial “canaries in the coal mine” when it comes to the effects of US President Donald Trump’s grand tariff experiment.
Point in fact—corn and soy prices are experiencing precipitous falls in no small part due to tariffs that China has placed on US imports. Cotton prices are dropping for the same reason, as nearly 80% of this crop is destined for export and China slapped a 15% retaliatory tariff on it. Prices for pork and beef appear on a different trajectory, with the latter benefiting from domestic shortages. But even here, trouble is on the horizon as China has cut back on imports from the US. This, as Brazil is exporting more soy, beef, and cotton to China to replace what US farmers once sent. It is no coincidence that the percentage of farm income in 2025 coming from government payments—25%—is approaching the level it was at when the Covid-19 pandemic devastated markets in 2020. The $59 billion dedicated for farmers’ relief payments in the "One Big Beautiful Bill" is testament to the fact that the economic future of rural America appears bleak.
The economic challenges our farmers face places even more pressure on the upcoming United States-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) renegotiations. Even though set for next year, Mexico, Canada, and the US are already staking positions and signaling their intentions. Look no further than Mexico contemplating placing tariffs on Chinese imports, a move clearly meant to stay in the good, however fickle, graces of the Trump administration.
Looking out for US farmers, there are some concrete policies that a renegotiated USMCA could feature. Specifically, new labeling requirements to ensure the integrity of domestic markets, as well as price guarantees tied to anti-dumping measures, could improve the economic prospects of producers as they struggle to weather the uncertainty of our ongoing trade war.
The problem is that in the past, the Trump administration took the wrong approach for how to improve the situation of producers when dealing with our neighbors. Concretely, when Trump renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) last time he was in office, besides rebranding it the USMCA, he also sought to open Canadian markets for US dairy exports.
Eking out marginal increases, those gains ultimately made no real improvement in the prices that farmers received. Proof of this is how dairy farmers have consistently struggled to stay in business, as we have witnessed a 25% nationwide decline from 2017 to 2023 in the number of licensed dairy herds. The recent uptick in dairy prices has nothing to do with USMCA, but instead to a reduction in feed costs and farmers cutting down their herds by selling heifers for beef.
Farmers are known for their resiliency. At the same time, they can only take so much.
Failing to finagle improved prices for farmers from changing exports, this time USMCA negotiations should focus on ensuring the integrity of markets.
The first step toward this would be for the US to reinstate Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling (MCOOL). Originally part of the 2002 Farm Bill before being removed after Canada and Mexico put pressure on the World Trade Organization (WTO), this program would make retailers disclose the origins of their products, including milk, dairy, meat, fish, and fruits, and vegetables. As such, MCOOL allows consumers to make informed purchasing decisions and choose our products instead of picking the cheapest goods of dubious quality that may come from abroad.
Such a change would assist ranchers particularly, as since Trump has taken office, Brazilian beef imports flooded US markets. And since the WTO has been paralyzed since Trump’s first term when he chose not to appoint judges to the institution’s appellate court, now MCOOL can return without opposition.
Next, pricing policies could be put in place to assure a decent income for farmers and prevent dumping.
The US has already made one move in this direction, placing a 17% tariff on tomato imports and accusing Mexican growers of dumping, that is, exporting goods into another market at below cost to drive competitors out of business.
Preventing dumping also cuts both ways, as when NAFTA was first introduced, US corn imports drove Mexican farmers out of business, into poverty, and then to cross the border. Accordingly, if Mexico wants to restrict the flow of some commodity south, such as corn, they should be allowed to.
To avoid a tit-for-tat battle, resolving this issue requires setting floor prices in some capacity. Like what they have already done with wages for automobile workers, negotiators could do the same for grains, as well as for livestock. They could also set limits on what comes from outside the trade bloc, like Mexico appears ready to do with China. The same could be done with Brazil and its beef, or perhaps with the many European countries that send billions of dollars of cheese a year into the US. Cheese is a critical element of dairy pricing, and decreasing imports could lead to more US production and better prices for farmers.
Farmers are known for their resiliency. At the same time, they can only take so much. Export-driven growth may sound like a good idea, but the reality has been different. A renegotiated USMCA that actually puts farmers first could turn things around and give producers a fighting chance to make a decent income and stay on the land.
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For June Dairy Month, Trump Should Celebrate the Canadian System, Not Denounce It
Trump’s plans don’t work for U.S. farmers. In fact, his intention to increase exports and enter the Canadian market fails both American farmers and our partner to the north.
Jun 29, 2025
Uncertainty is nothing new for farmers.
Freak weather changes and fluctuations in the market make planning for the future a gamble, never a sure thing. Dairy farmers have to deal with the additional issues of needing to keep their herds healthy and well-fed, as the price farmers receive in part depends on bacteria counts, and also the fat and protein content of the milk. If things weren’t hard enough, milk is a highly perishable product, which, unlike grains, cannot be stored and then sold when prices improve.
Giving farmers even more headaches these days is President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again trade war. Specifically, farmers have to endure even more uncertainty than normal as prices for inputs like seed or fertilizer may rise with tariffs, while their export markets abroad are endangered. In this mix of the president’s ongoing trade spats, he's ridiculing Canada for protecting its dairy farmers with their supply management system, alleging that it harms U.S. farmers.
The moral of the story is that exports don’t keep farms in business, but instead allow larger operations to capture market share for themselves while driving out the smaller operations that have long defined U.S. dairy.
But here’s the reality—Trump’s plans don’t work for U.S. farmers. In fact, his intention to increase exports and enter the Canadian market fails both American farmers and our partner to the north.
Mexico has long been the main customer for our dairy exports and is regularly the No. 1 importer of all U.S. goods. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement as Mexico is a milk deficit country and meeting their domestic consumption needs requires imports. That’s how trade should work—when one country has stuff to sell that another country wants to buy, everyone wins.
With our neighbors to the north, the story is much different.
Canadians do not want our products forced into their market. Actually, Canadians want their system to stay as it is. It’s not difficult to see why. The Canadian supply management system ensures dairy farmers a fair price for their milk by tying domestic dairy production to consumption. Prices are negotiated in periodic meetings between farmers and processors to assure a baseline cost of production for producers and an adequate supply for domestic needs. Unlike the U.S. system, in which price controls were lifted for dairy in the 1980s, Canadian dairy farmers have a semblance of certainty year after year. U.S. dairy producers must fend for themselves, adopting a “get big or get out” mentality and increasing production whenever they can to maintain some kind of financial security. This push to constantly increase production leads to chronic overproduction and price volatility. Also unlike the U.S. system, Canadian farmers do not rely on tax-payer financed bailouts, or inadequate insurance payments that keep American farmers hanging on by a thread.
Furthermore, the production treadmill promoted by U.S. government policy has caused the loss of small farms and the hollowing out of rural communities. Trump continued this “get big or get out” mantra the first time he was in office, targeting Canadian dairy much like he is doing now. During the renegotiation of North American Free Trade Agreement into the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the Canadian market was slightly opened to U.S. dairy exports.
Despite the heralding of this change a “win” for farmers, it has proved to be anything but.
Specifically, even though exports to Canada have nearly doubled since 2018, U.S. farmers continue to exit the industry at alarming rates. While U.S. dairy operations numbered at about 34,000 operations in 2020, the year when the USMCA was officially passed, that number fell to just about 26,000 by 2023—a 25% decrease.
The moral of the story is that exports don’t keep farms in business, but instead allow larger operations to capture market share for themselves while driving out the smaller operations that have long defined U.S. dairy.
Particularly as we celebrate June Dairy Month, we should learn from the Canadian system instead of denouncing it. Granted, Canada’s supply management is not perfect—few government policies are. But their system provides for fair returns for farmers and certainty in a profession already marked by so many challenges. A similar production management system in the U.S. could ensure farmers a fair milk price thereby eliminating the need for taxpayer subsidies, while providing consumers with fairly priced, locally produced dairy. Let’s stop championing an economic vision for agriculture that has already been shown to be a failure.
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Trump’s Hawk Lands in Mexico
Ronald Johnson’s appointment as ambassador sparks outcry over U.S. interference.
Jun 03, 2025
A storm is brewing in U.S.-Mexico relations, and its epicenter is the newly appointed U.S. ambassador: Ronald Johnson, a former Green Beret and CIA operative with deep ties to U.S. military interventions in Central America.
Johnson arrived in Mexico City on May 15 and presented his diplomatic credentials to President Claudia Sheinbaum on May 19, triggering alarm among activists, political observers, and civil society leaders on both sides of the border.
To many, Johnson’s appointment is not just a diplomatic formality—it’s a signal. “It’s a declaration of war, basically, on Mexico,” said Marco Castillo, co-executive director of Global Exchange, during a recent episode of the podcast WTF Is Going on in Latin America & the Caribbean. “It feels like one step before Trump attempts to set foot in Mexico.”
A Familiar Face From a Violent Past
Johnson’s résumé reads like a blueprint for interventionism. In the 1980s, he worked with right-wing paramilitary groups in El Salvador and Panama. His associations include relationships with controversial U.S.-backed figures accused of human rights abuses during Reagan’s Central American “Dirty Wars.” During the first Trump administration, Johnson served as U.S. Ambassador to El Salvador (2019-2021), developing a close relationship with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele.
“To those of us who worked in Central America in the 1980s, he’s a figure that’s never really gone away,” said WTF co-host and activist Teri Mattson. “This is a profound message Trump is sending to Mexico and the region.”
Johnson’s appointment is not just a personnel change—it’s a test of will, sovereignty, and solidarity.
Observers draw parallels between Johnson’s arrival and a larger arc of escalating U.S. hostility toward Mexico that began years ago. Mattson recalled a WTF episode from April 2022 titled “Challenging the U.S. Narrative on Mexico,” which chronicled rising anti-Mexico sentiment in U.S. media, including opposition to Mexican energy reforms and false claims tying cartels to U.S. military hardware sent to Ukraine.
“Johnson is not an aberration—he’s the culmination,” said Mattson. “He’s the endpoint of a continuum that began at least in 2021.”
A Pattern of Political Provocation
The backlash intensified when it was revealed that even before receiving formal recognition as ambassador, Johnson dined with Eduardo Verástegui, the Mexican ultra-conservative and unofficial Trump envoy. Verástegui, President of CPAC Mexico, is known for his alignment with U.S. right-wing interests and has long tried to position himself as Trump’s proxy in Mexico.
“That’s not a coincidence. That’s a statement,” said Castillo. “This is not how you build a respectful relationship with your closest neighbor.”
Indeed, Johnson’s appointment seems designed to antagonize. Activists and analysts fear his presence will embolden right-wing actors within Mexico and destabilize efforts toward national sovereignty, particularly as the country approaches pivotal judicial elections.
Strategic Interests, Economic Pressure
Beyond ideology, Johnson’s arrival is seen as part of a broader geopolitical strategy. Mexico is now the United States’ top trading partner, eclipsing even China, and the stakes of the fourth quarter 2025 review of the U.S.-Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA or TMEC, as it’s known in Mexico) are higher than ever. Under the surface of trade talks lies a tug-of-war over energy sovereignty, technology patents, and labor rights.
“The U.S. has tried everything—sanctions, media campaigns, diplomatic pressure—to undermine Mexico’s progressive reforms,” said Alina Duarte, a journalist and activist who co-hosted the WTF episode. “But this ambassador is different. He’s not just a diplomat. He’s a weapon.”
In 2024 alone, U.S.-Mexico trade reached over $840 billion, with Mexican manufacturing playing a key role in the electric vehicle supply chain and artificial intelligence infrastructure. Activists believe this economic dependence gives the U.S. incentive to suppress Mexico’s drive for self-determination, particularly under the leadership of President Sheinbaum and the MORENA party.
“Mexico’s energy reforms threaten U.S. corporate interests in tech, AI, and EVs,” said Mattson. “That’s what this is really about.”
Assassinations and Escalation
Just one day after Johnson formally presented his credentials, two close political allies of Mexico City Governor Clara Brugada (MORENA) were assassinated. While no official connection has been established, the timing has rattled many.
“We’ve never seen something like this—not in Mexico City,” said Duarte. “These were people directly tied to progressive governance. The implication is chilling.”
Yet activists remain undeterred. They call on U.S. citizens and organizations to reject Johnson’s appointment and demand a foreign policy grounded in justice, not domination.
In the wake of the killings, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a statement accusing the Mexican government of complicity with organized crime, while simultaneously acknowledging that U.S.-made weapons are fueling that very violence.
“This isn’t just hypocrisy,” said Castillo. “It’s gaslighting. Over 70% of the weapons used in crimes in Mexico are trafficked from the United States.”
“It’s a confession,” added Duarte.
Mexico has responded by filing lawsuits against U.S. gun manufacturers and sellers, but progress has been slow. A pending case before the U.S. Supreme Court may determine whether these companies can be held accountable for arms flooding Mexico’s criminal networks.
Building a Transnational Resistance
In response to these rising tensions, Castillo and a coalition of labor unions, civil society organizations, and Indigenous leaders recently convened a binational assembly on the USMCA in Mexico City. The event aimed to link economic justice to human rights and to forge a coordinated strategy for regional solidarity.
“If we’re not included in the negotiations, then we say: No more trade without rights,” Castillo declared. “This deal has made trillions for corporations, but very little for the people.”
The assembly brought together voices from across Mexico and the U.S., highlighting how the USMCA has enabled corporate abuses, weakened labor protections, and escalated surveillance. Many warned that without structural changes, the deal would continue to enable exploitation and violence.
Eyes on the Judiciary and the Future of Democracy
The timing of Johnson’s arrival is also significant because it coincided with a historic election in Mexico. On June 1, Mexican voters directly elected members of the judiciary—a groundbreaking shift in Latin American democracy.
“It’s a moment of enormous pressure,” said Duarte. “The U.S. and its allies want Claudia Sheinbaum and the Fourth Transformation to fail. But the people have a chance to make history.”
Mexico’s so-called Fourth Transformation—a sweeping set of reforms aimed at curbing corruption, empowering the poor, and reclaiming national sovereignty—has faced constant sabotage from conservative elites, many with direct ties to Washington.
“This is part of a regional pattern,” said Mattson. “We saw the same with Bolsonaro in Brazil, Milei in Argentina. Now Trump wants a proxy in Mexico.”
Yet activists remain undeterred. They call on U.S. citizens and organizations to reject Johnson’s appointment and demand a foreign policy grounded in justice, not domination.
“Mexico will always be your neighbor,” said Castillo. “If the U.S. continues to bully and attack us, it’s sabotaging its own future.”
A Crossroads for the Hemisphere
As Mexico moves toward a historic democratic moment, it does so under the shadow of renewed U.S. interference. Johnson’s appointment is not just a personnel change—it’s a test of will, sovereignty, and solidarity.
“Trump’s hawk is here, but so are we,” said Duarte. “And we’re not going anywhere.”
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