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world weather attribution
Deadly Flooding in Central Europe Made Twice as Likely By Climate Change: Study
"This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future."
Sep 25, 2024
The record-setting rainfall that hit Central Europe in mid September was made roughly twice as likely and 7% more severe by climate change, according to an analysis released Wednesday.
The 36-page study, conducted by scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution (WWA), looked at the causes of the extreme rain that peaked from September 12 until September 15. Called Storm Boris, it hit many countries including Poland, Austria, and the Czech Republic, and set off flooding that killed at least 24 people.
The authors, whose work wasn't peer reviewed, warned that Storm Boris was a sign of what's to come.
"This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future," Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, told the BBC.
"[It] is the absolute fingerprint signature of climate change... that records are broken by such a large margin."
The floods that killed 24 people in Central Europe were caused by rainfall made twice as likely and at least 7% heavier by climate change 📈🌧️
Floods will become more destructive and costly with further fossil fuel warming.
Our analysis was published this morning 🧵 https://t.co/0rJjYuYnUt
— World Weather Attribution (@WWAttribution) September 25, 2024
The heavy rainfall was caused by a Vb (pronounced "five-b") depression that "forms when cold polar air flows from the north over the Alps, meeting very warm air in Southern Europe," according to a WWA statement that accompanied the study.
The damage came partly from the fact that the storm lingered for many days, with rain falling on saturated ground and overflowing bodies of water. The WWA scientists didn't determine if the duration was affected by climate change; however, in general, the affect of climate change on the jet stream, which normally helps push weather patterns through the continent quickly, could play a role in causing storms to linger, experts say.
"These types of blocking situations and meandering jet stream-induced situations are increasing in frequency," Hayley Fowler, a climate scientist at Newcastle University who wasn't involved in the study, toldNPR.
Other factors in the Stom Boris disaster were more clearly influenced by a warmer planet. The most basic and straightforward factor is that hotter air can hold more water—for each degree celsius that the Earth heats up, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water, so there's more that can turn into rain.
The WWA study's key findings—a roughly twofold increase in the likelihood of Storm Boris and a 7% increase in intensity caused by climate change—may in fact be underestimates. The findings are "too conservative," the study says.
The analysis does contain good news: European authorities were more prepared for this storm than they had been in the past, likely saving dozens of lives.
Far more people died during extreme flooding episodes in the region in 1997 and 2002—more than 100, in each case—even though the rainfall in those events was less severe and didn't cover such a large area. Governments have since invested in forecasting, early warning systems, and flood defenses like levees. The city of Vienna has been particularly strong on flood preparations, and its investments paid off when Storm Boris did little damage there.
Otto, the co-author, said on social media that early warning systems worked well but flood defenses are, in general, still being put up "way too slowly." She said addressing the climate crisis would pay off in many ways for people on the continent.
"All Europeans need to know that tackling it will make their lives so much better—ending fossil fuels creates jobs, lowers energy bills, makes cities healthier places to live, and reduces the risk of killer floods," she said.
Many observers had assumed that climate change played a role in the flooding before the WWA analysis was released. On September 16, Greenpeace called for fossil fuel companies to pay for the damage caused by extreme weather events. The type of attribution science conducted by WWA helps strengthen the case for accountability, advocates say.
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Deadly Flooding in Europe Shows 'Dramatic Consequences' of Climate Change
"What you see here is worse than in 1997, and I don't know what will happen because my house is under water and I don't know if I will even return to it," one storm evacuee said.
Sep 15, 2024
Extreme flooding has claimed the lives of at least seven people in Central and Eastern Europe and forced thousands to flee their homes over the weekend.
Storm Boris—a low pressure system—has been lashing the area since Thursday, with major cities seeing a month's worth of rain and some areas seeing their heaviest rainfall in 100 years between Saturday and Sunday.
"We are again facing the effects of climate change, which are increasingly present on the European continent, with dramatic consequences," Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said, as The Guardian reported.
The storm has been deadliest in Romania, where four people were killed on Saturday and a fifth on Sunday, according toCNN. Hundreds of people also had to be rescued from rising waters.
The most impacted part of Romania was Galati, where the storm damaged around 5,400 homes—and around 700 in the village of Slobozia Conachi alone.
"This is a catastrophe of epic proportions," Mayor Emil Dragomir said, as The Guardian reported.
"The idiotic media have failed to make it clear what's coming—and this is still the beginning."
The sixth death came in Austria, where a firefighter battling flooding perished on Sunday. Authorities have declared a disaster for Lower Austria, where Vienna is located, and staged nearly 5,000 rescues there Saturday night. The storm also shut down rail service in the eastern part of the country.
"We are experiencing difficult and dramatic hours in Lower Austria," said the provincial governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner, as The Associated Press reported. "For many people in Lower Austria these will probably be the most difficult hours of their lives."
In Poland, one person drowned in the hardest-hit region of Kłodzko, where around 1,600 people were forced to evacuate and 17,000 lost power.
In another town of Stonie Slaski, flood waters overwhelmed a dam and collapsed a bridge, while the river in Glucholazy overflowed its banks.
"The situation is still very dramatic in many place[s]," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Sunday, according to CNN. "Unfortunately, these situations are repeating themselves in many places… but some residents sometimes underestimate the level of threat and refuse to evacuate."
The storm also pummeled parts of Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, where some of the highest rainfall totals in the region were reported and where four people are still missing.
The storm forced 10,000 people from the city of Opava to flee their homes, and Mayor Tomáš Navrátil said conditions were worse than in 1997's so-called "flood of the century," according to AP.
"What you see here is worse than in 1997, and I don't know what will happen because my house is under water and I don't know if I will even return to it," Lipová-lázne resident Pavel Bily said, as The Guardian reported.
The rains are expected to continue at least through Monday.
In 2021, World Weather Attribution said that the climate emergency has made extreme flooding in Europe more likely. The storm also followed the hottest summer on record, as well as a warm beginning to September in the region, and warmer air can hold more moisture.
"People are in prison today for trying to warn the public how bad things are going to get," author Matthew Todd wrote on social media in response to footage of a dam bursting in Poland. "Scientists have taken to the streets to warn us."
"The idiotic media have failed to make it clear what's coming—and this is still the beginning," Todd continued. "Educate everyone you know."
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Only 7 Countries Meet WHO's Air Quality Guidelines as Fossil Fuels Worsen Pollution
"The science is pretty clear about the impacts of air pollution and yet we are so accustomed to having a background level of pollution that's too high to be healthy," said an official at Swiss firm IQAir.
Mar 19, 2024
A Swiss air quality monitoring firm on Tuesday said its latest worldwide data reveals the need for more walkable cities and a swift transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, as just 7 out of 134 countries were found to meet global standards for dangerous air pollution.
IQAir found that Australia, Estonia, Finland, Grenada, Iceland, Mauritius, and New Zealand were the only countries that met the World Health Organization's (WHO) guidelines for particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) pollution, which is made up of microscopic airborne particles and can become embedded in peoples' lungs and even their bloodstreams, especially in cases of high exposure.
Three territories—Bermuda, French Polynesia, and Puerto Rico—also met WHO's standard.
PM2.5 can cause or aggravate asthma and has been linked to worsened lung function, heart attacks, respiratory ailments, and irregular heartbeat.
While IQAir measured countries' air quality against WHO's guideline for "safe" PM2.5 levels—five micrograms per cubic meter—U.S. scientists found last month that there is no safe amount of PM2.5 for humans.
IQAir found that PM2.5 levels were highest in the Global South. Bangladesh was found to have more than 15 times the amount of PM2.5 pollution than what is advised by WHO, while Pakistan's level was 14 times higher. The most polluted metropolitan area in 2023 was Begusarai, India, and India had four of most polluted cities in the world.
But "things have gone backwards" in wealthy countries as well, Glory Dolphin Hammes, North America chief executive of IQAir, told The Guardian, particularly as planetary heating has fueled wildfires like those that stunned scientists in Canada and Europe last year.
Canada, long a leader in air quality, had a PM2.5 level of 10.3 in 2023, and air quality across North America was "significantly influenced by extensive Canadian wildfires that raged from May to October." More than 40% of Canadian cities recorded annual PM2.5 levels that exceeded 10 micrograms per cubic meter. Eleven percent, or 35 cities, exceeded 15 micrograms per cubic meter, compared to just a single city in 2022.
World Weather Attribution directly linked Canada's wildfires to the climate emergency,
saying fossil fuel combustion and the resulting planetary heating made the blazes twice as likely.
The country's PM2.5 levels last year showed that governments "should act to make their cities more walkable and less reliant upon cars, amend forestry practices to help curtail the impact of wildfire smoke, and move more quickly to embrace clean energy in place of fossil fuels," Hammes told The Guardian.
"The science is pretty clear about the impacts of air pollution and yet we are so accustomed to having a background level of pollution that's too high to be healthy," she said. "We are not making adjustments fast enough."
Robb Barnes, climate program director for the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, said the report shows Canada is "no exception" as governments are urged to confront the fact that "climate change, pollution, and burning fossil fuels is disastrous for human health."
Air pollution is blamed for an estimated 7 million premature deaths each year, with countries in the Global South—where clean energy sources are less available for heating and other uses—reporting the most deaths linked to PM2.5.
Frank Hammes, global CEO of IQAir, noted that much of the Global South, including many countries in Africa, lack air quality monitoring mechanisms.
"A clean, healthy, and sustainable environment is a universal human right. In many parts of the world the lack of air quality data delays decisive action and perpetuates unnecessary human suffering," said Hammes in a statement. "Air quality data saves lives."
In order to prevent more premature deaths linked to PM2.5 pollution, the report said, policymakers in Canada and other wealthy countries where air quality suffered in 2023 must take decisive steps to decrease PM2.5 emissions from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, power plants, and industrial processes, including:
- Broadening the adoption of renewable, clean energy in public transportation systems;
- Providing subsidies for battery-powered and human-powered modes of transportation;
- Championing infrastructure projects that enhance pedestrian mobility; and
- Introducing incentive programs to stimulate the adoption of clean air vehicles for commercial and personal purposes.
"IQAir's annual report illustrates the international nature and inequitable consequences of the enduring air pollution crisis," said Aidan Farrow, senior air quality scientist for Greenpeace International. "In 2023 air pollution remained a global health catastrophe. IQAir's global data set provides an important reminder of the resulting injustices and the need to implement the many solutions that exist to this problem."
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