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world weather attribution
Scientists: Fossil Fuel-Driven Climate Crisis 'Directly Responsible' for Deadly European Heatwave
"Europe's savage heatwave has the fingerprints of the climate crisis all over it—it's the latest price to pay for fossil fuel pollution baking our planet," said one UN leader.
Jun 26, 2026
With at least hundreds of people dead and high temperatures persisting, scientists said Friday that the "record-shattering" heatwave devastating Europe was "virtually impossible just 50 years ago"—and climate change driven by fossil fuel emissions "is unequivocally to blame."
World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international scientific collaboration that analyzes extreme weather events, said daytime highs and overnight temperatures that have been scorching several European countries likely could not have occurred in 1976, and a similar heatwave in that historic climate would be 6.3°F cooler.
The findings followed a Monday analysis from ClimaMeter showing that weather patterns similar to those driving the current European heatwave now produce temperatures roughly 3.6-7.2°F warmer, depending on location, than they did during the second half of the 20th century, because of greenhouse gas emissions.
"The sweltering overnight temperatures keeping many people awake this week are about 100x more likely today than they were just 23 years ago during the infamous 2003 European heatwave," WWA said Friday. "The daytime peaks are about 10x more likely."
WWA found that a "staggering" 45% of 854 cities across 30 European countries have broken, or are expected to break, their records for wet-bulb globe temperatures—which incorporate temperature, humidity, wind speed, and sunlight to measure the risk to humans.
"The science of how climate change is worsening heatwaves is settled. Continued fossil fuel emissions are directly responsible for the disruption people are experiencing this week in their homes, schools, and workplaces," said Theodore Keeping, a co-author of the WWA study who researches extreme weather and wildfire at the United Kingdom's Imperial College London (ICL).
"The speed of change is startling," Keeping continued. "Every few years, we are seeing heat records shattered in Europe. This year, it has been in consecutive months. In the UK, we are used to 'snow days' shutting down schools, but this generation is now growing up with 'heat days' as well."
While the "heat dome" responsible for Europe's second heatwave in two months "was moving east on Friday, bringing marginal relief to some areas in the west and threatening parts of Central and Eastern Europe with a scorching weekend," according to The New York Times, the 97.5°F recorded in southwest England was Britain's highest temperature ever for June, breaking a record set the previous day.
A record-breaking heat wave that’s spreading eastward across Europe has revived interest in a hypothetical temperature forecast for August 2050 in France.But it turns out, it didn’t take 36 years for those imagined temperatures to be reached — and even exceeded.
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— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost.com) June 25, 2026 at 12:30 PM
France also faced more intense heat on Friday, with a 103.3°F reading in Paris. The Washington Post pointed out that two days earlier, as parts of the country endured 112.3°F, soaring temperatures exceeded hypothetical forecasts for August 2050 in 19 of 34 locations across the French mainland.
The current conditions have proven deadly. As Reuters reported:
At least 48 people have died in France from drowning since the start of the heatwave while trying to cool off, authorities said, and three young children are known to have been killed by heat in cars in two separate incidents.
Since the end of last week, more than 20 people across Germany have died in swimming-related accidents, the German Life Saving Association said in a statement to Reuters.
Spain's Mortality Monitoring System estimated that the recent heat has resulted in at least 212 deaths, mostly among people ages 65 and older. Diana Gómez, a scientist at the agency, noted that the figures are preliminary and based on statistical projections.
Acknowledging that "many people still live, work, and study in places that are not designed for the temperatures we are now experiencing," Carolina Pereira Marghidan of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center said to "follow local heat advice, seek cooler spaces where possible, drink plenty of water, and check on family, friends, and neighbors who may be most at risk."
Pereira Marghidan also highlighted the "growing gap between the pace of climate change and the pace of adaptation," and called for "greater investment in heat-resilient homes, cities, and infrastructure to keep people safe."
Right now, record-breaking, dangerous heat waves are rolling across Europe. This isn't just "summer weather". This is exactly what the climate crisis looks like 🥵
— Greenpeace International 🌍 (@greenpeace.org) June 24, 2026 at 7:57 AM
Speaking at London Climate Action Week on Wednesday, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres similarly said that "climate adaptation is no longer about preparing for a distant future. It's about managing risks in real time—as the searing heat now gripping London and far beyond makes unmistakably clear."
"Our climate is changing faster than our systems, our infrastructure, and our institutions can handle. The World Meteorological Organization confirms that the past 11 years have been the hottest on record. Scientists now expect the world to exceed 1.5°C in the coming years," he continued, citing the Paris Agreement's goal to limit temperature rise this century. "We're entering a new era of climate risk."
The heat has sparked calls to tackle the root cause of the rising temperatures—fossil fuel emissions—from Guterres and others. UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said Thursday that "Europe's savage heatwave has the fingerprints of the climate crisis all over it—it's the latest price to pay for fossil fuel pollution baking our planet."
"Schools closing, the vulnerable dying, economies sweating: This is what the climate crisis looks like in practice, and it's just getting started," he emphasized. "Until humanity stops burning colossal amounts of coal, oil, and gas, extreme heat will keep getting worse, and other climate impacts—from megadroughts, floods, wildfires, and storms—will keep hammering every economy and population harder each year."
David Ho, a University of Hawaii at Mānoa professor, said on social media: "The heatwave in western Europe is the most severe and widespread ever, with almost half of Europe's largest cities experiencing their worst ever heat stress, a combination of high temperatures and humidity. Unless we stop burning fossil fuels, future heat conditions will become even more extreme."
I spoke with Geeta GuruMurthy of BBC World News Television about the record European heat wave and it's link to human-caused warming:youtu.be/d8vqO2J8WV0
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— Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) June 25, 2026 at 2:17 PM
Although some natural phenomena can contribute to high temperatures, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced earlier this month that El Niño, the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean, had formed, WWA found that it "had no role in driving the heat" in Europe.
"Scientists like me are beginning to sound like a broken record. We put out similar quotes year after year, reacting to heat extremes that climb ever higher. Yes this is climate change, yes it's us, no it's not El Niño, yes we have the solutions, no we're not implementing them fast enough," said study co-author and ICL climate science professor Friederike Otto. "It's really now a question of what kind of future we want for ourselves, and whether we're willing to do what it takes to secure it."
On the heels of a French court's ruling against TotalEnergies, Lisa Rose, a campaigner at the global climate group 350.org, argued Friday that "it's time to turn the heat on the fossil fuel giants that caused this heatwave but are doing nothing to cover the costs."
"Both science and the law are clear: Polluters must answer for climate damage. Now it's up to our leaders to make them pay," Rose said. "Forcing fossil fuel companies to cut emissions and pay their fair share is the only effective lasting response. Half-measures won't cool this crisis, only a faster shift to renewables can."
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'A Wake-Up Call': Scientists Find 2025 Among Hottest Years on Record
"2025 was full of stark reminders of the urgent need to cut climate pollution, invest in clean energy, and tackle the climate crisis now."
Dec 30, 2025
Climate change driven by human burning of fossil fuels helped make 2025 one of the hottest years ever recorded, a scientific report published Monday affirmed, prompting renewed calls for urgent action to combat the worsening planetary emergency.
Researchers at World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that "although 2025 was slightly cooler than 2024 globally, it was still far hotter than almost any other year on record," with only two other recent years recording a higher average worldwide temperature.
For the first time, the three-year running average will end the year above the 1.5°C warming goal, relative to preindustrial levels, established a decade ago under the landmark Paris climate agreement.
"Global temperatures remained very high and significant harm from human-induced climate change is very real," the report continues. "It is not a future threat, but a present-day reality."
"Across the 22 extreme events we analyzed in depth, heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts, and wildfires claimed lives, destroyed communities, and wiped out crops," the researchers wrote. "Together, these events paint a stark picture of the escalating risks we face in a warming world."
The WWA researchers' findings tracked with the findings of United Nations experts and others that 2025 would be the third-hottest year on record.
According to the WWA study:
This year highlighted again, in stark terms, how unfairly the consequences of human-induced climate change are distributed, consistently hitting those who are already marginalized within their societies the hardest. But the inequity goes deeper: The scientific evidence base itself is uneven. Many of our studies in 2025 focused on heavy rainfall events in the Global South, and time and again we found that gaps in observational data and the reliance on climate models developed primarily for the Global North prevented us from drawing confident conclusions. This unequal foundation in climate science mirrors the broader injustices of the climate crisis.
The events of 2025 make it clear that while we urgently need to transition away from fossil fuels, we also must invest in adaptation measures. Many deaths and other impacts could be prevented with timely action. But events like Hurricane Melissa highlight the limits of preparedness and adaptation: When an intense storm strikes small islands such as Jamaica and other Caribbean nations, even relatively high levels of preparedness cannot prevent extreme losses and damage. This underscores that adaptation alone is not enough; rapid emission reductions remain essential to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.
“If we don’t stop burning fossil fuels very, very, quickly, very soon, it will be very hard to keep that goal” of 1.5°C, WWA co-founder Friederike Otto—who is also an Imperial College London climate scientist—told the Associated Press. “The science is increasingly clear.”
The WWA study's publication comes a month after this year's United Nations Climate Change Conference—or COP30—ended in Brazil with little meaningful progress toward a transition from fossil fuels.
Responding to the new study, Climate Action Campaign director Margie Alt said in a statement that "2025 was full of stark reminders of the urgent need to cut climate pollution, invest in clean energy, and tackle the climate crisis now."
"Today’s report is a wake-up call," Alt continued. "Unfortunately, [US President Donald] Trump and Republicans controlling Congress spent the past year making climate denial official US policy and undermining progress to stave off the worst of the climate crisis. Their reckless polluters-first agenda rolled back critical climate protections and attacked and undermined the very agencies responsible for helping Americans prepare for and recover from increasingly dangerous disasters."
"Across the country, people are standing up and demanding their leaders do better to protect our families from climate change and extreme weather," Alt added. "It's time those in power started listening.”
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Nearly 200 Killed in One Day in Pakistan Flooding Fueled by Climate Crisis
"The death toll may rise as we are still looking for dozens of missing people," said a spokesperson for an emergency agency in northwestern Pakistan.
Aug 15, 2025
Five people on a helicopter rescue team were among nearly 200 people killed by extreme rainfall and flooding in Pakistan in a single day on Friday—the country's latest emergency caused by increasingly severe monsoon seasons, which scientists say are being fueled by the human-caused climate crisis.
The vast majority of deaths were recorded in mountainous areas in the northwestern region, with at least 171 people killed on Friday in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.
As the Associated Press reported, "cloudbursts," or sudden and intense downpours over small areas, have become increasingly common in India and northern Pakistan in recent years and have caused landslides and flooding.
Pakistan has faced more extreme heatwaves and abnormal torrential downpours during its monsoon season, which typically occurs from June-September. Glaciers like those in the Gilgit-Balistan region, which hold 75% of Pakistan's stored water supply, have also been melting faster due to higher temperatures—another cause of flash floods. Several landslides have been reported along the Karakoram Highway in that region, which is heavily used by tourists and for trade.
International scientists at the World Weather Attribution said last week that rainfall in Pakistan from June 24-July 23 was 10-15% higher than it would have been without planetary heating linked to fossil fuel emissions, which have steadily risen since the 1950s with wealthy countries including the United States being the biggest contributors.
The death toll from the current ongoing extreme weather, which is expected to continue in the coming days, will likely rise significantly, said officials on Friday.
Authorities suspended an annual Hindu pilgrimage to a Sufi shrine in the northwestern Buner district, which began July 25 and was supposed to continue until early September.
About 78 people have been killed in Buner, mostly by floodwaters that swept them away and houses that collapsed.
Officials were helping nearly 4,000 pilgrims evacuate the area on Friday, building makeshift bridges to help people cross waterways and using dozens of excavators to move boulders, uprooted trees, and other debris.
"The death toll may rise as we are still looking for dozens of missing people," provincial emergency service spokesperson Mohammad Suhail told the AP.
A merchant in the Buner district told the New York Times that he had lost thousands of dollars in goods.
"Everything I had, groceries, edible items, is destroyed," Syed Mehmood Bacah said. "I could not save anything."
The disaster comes three years after Pakistan's worst monsoon season on record, in which flooding killed more than 1,700 people and caused an estimated $40 billion in damages.
Pakistan has become the world's fifth-most vulnerable country to climate disasters despite contributing only about 1% of the world's fossil fuel emissions.
The National Disaster Management Authority said the total number of rain-related deaths has now reached at least 556 since June 26, with more than 700 people injured.
Northern India has also been affected by flash flooding this week, with at least 44 people killed and more than 100 others injured in the Indian-controlled part of Jammu and Kashmir.
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Weather Conditions That Caused the LA Fires Made 35% More Likely By the Climate Crisis
"Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier, and more flammable," said one of the report's co-authors.
Jan 29, 2025
Human-induced planetary warming made the weather conditions that caused the Los Angeles fires 35% more probable, according to a report published on Tuesday by the research organization World Weather Attribution.
The report from WWA, which performs attribution studies that examine how the climate emergency impacts extreme weather events, further fleshes out the public understanding of wildfires that broke out in and around the Los Angeles region in early January. Those fires collectively burned tens of thousands of acres of land, killed 28 people, and destroyed more then 16,000 structures, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
Damage estimates indicate that the wildfires, which have placed strain on the California insurance industry, are one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.
Southern California is no stranger to wildfire and can experience large fires year-round, according to the report's 32 researchers, who hailed from the United States and Europe.
In summer, fires in the region are promoted by low fuel moisture—the measure of the amount of water in a fuel, such as vegetation. In winter, the strong Santa Ana winds can drive fast-burning fires, but their ability to fuel fires in mid-winter is usually nullified by the onset of the region's rainy season, which begins in October-November, the report explains.
According to the researchers, summer 2024 was one of the warmest on record for the Los Angeles region. "As the cool, wet season approached, the typical onset of the rainy season did not arrive. However, the Santa Ana winds arrived, coinciding with very dry fuels," they wrote. There was also more fuel for the recent Los Angeles fires to burn because above-average precipitation during the winters of 2022-23 and 2023-24 had encouraged vegetation growth.
The report's researcher relied on the Fire Weather Index (FWI)—"a composite fire-risk index that accounts for longer-term drying conditions as well as wind and humidity driven conditions that can drive wildfire spread on a given day"—and found that "extreme" FWI conditions that drove the L.A. fires are expected to occur on average once every 17 years now that the globe is 1.3°C warmer relative to the preindustrial period.
That is an increased likelihood of 35% and an increased intensity of about 6% compared to a 1.3°C cooler climate.
To establish the role that the climate emergency has played in this trend, the researchers also combined this observation-based estimate with climate models, eight out of eleven of which showed an increase in extreme FWI conditions in January.
The researchers note that "while we have high confidence in the qualitative change, that the likelihood and intensity of the FWI has increased due to the human-induced climate emergency, the precise numbers have a wide range of uncertainty due to the model performance."
"Without a faster transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, California will continue to get hotter, drier and more flammable," Clair Barnes, a co-author of the report and researcher at Imperial College London, told to CBC News.
The researchers also looked at changes to the timing of the dry season and found that the length of the dry season has increased by about 23 days since the global climate was 1.3°C cooler. This means that because of the burning of fossil fuels, the dry season and the Santa Ana Winds are increasingly overlapping—a recipe for more fire.
The group also found that the drought conditions leading up to the fires are now more likely to occur. Similarly dry seasons are 2.4 times more likely to happen compared to preindustrial times.
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26 Climate-Fueled Extreme Weather Events Killed at Least 3,700 People in 2024: Report
"This exceptional year of extreme weather shows how dangerous life has already become... and highlights the urgency of moving away from planet-heating fossil fuels as quickly as possible."
Dec 27, 2024
Just over two dozen climate-fueled extreme weather events killed at least 3,700 people worldwide and displaced millions in 2024, according to a report published Friday as the hottest year on record drew to a close.
The new analysis from World Weather Attribution (WWA) and Climate Central states that extreme weather "reached dangerous new heights in 2024" as "record-breaking temperatures fueled unrelenting heatwaves, drought, wildfire, storms, and floods that killed thousands of people and forced millions from their homes."
"This exceptional year of extreme weather shows how dangerous life has already become with 1.3°C of human-induced warming, and highlights the urgency of moving away from planet-heating fossil fuels as quickly as possible," said the two organizations, which examined 26 destructive weather events that occurred in 2024—a fraction of the hundreds that took place globally this year.
Those 26 events—from Hurricane Helene in the United States to the typhoon that hammered the Philippines, China, and Taiwan— caused close to 4,000 deaths, according to WWA and Climate Central.
"It's likely the total number of people killed in extreme weather events intensified by climate change this year is in the tens, or hundreds of thousands," the analysis states.
"Extremes will continue to worsen with every fraction of a degree of fossil fuel warming."
Around the world, the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency added, on average, 41 additional days of dangerous heat this year, Climate Central found.
"The countries that experienced the highest number of dangerous heat days are overwhelmingly small island and developing states, who are highly vulnerable and considered to be on the frontlines of climate change," the analysis says.
WWA and Climate Central said their findings should spur global action to shift away from fossil fuel, the burning of which is "the primary reason extreme weather is becoming more severe," they said.
"Extremes will continue to worsen with every fraction of a degree of fossil fuel warming," WWA and Climate Central added. "A rapid move to renewable energy will help make the world a safer, healthier, wealthier, and more stable place."
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Climate Crisis Made Hurricane Milton 'Wetter, Windier, and More Destructive'
World Weather Attribution found that "Milton's rainfall was made 10-50% more intense and about twice as likely due to climate change, while wind speeds were around 10% stronger."
Oct 11, 2024
With rescue and cleanup efforts underway in Florida following back-to-back disasters wrought by hurricanes Helene and Milton, scientists on Friday released an analysis highlighting how the latter storm was "wetter, windier, and more destructive because of climate change" driven by fossil fuels.
Hurricane categories are based on wind speed, and scientists have connected quick jumps in ratings to the climate emergency. Milton rapidly intensified to Category 5, the highest on the scale, while in the Gulf of Mexico but made landfall late Wednesday as a Category 3 storm—less than two weeks after Category 4 Helene hit Florida and then left a trail of destruction across the Southeast.
Based on modeling, "climate change was responsible for an increase of about 40% in the number of storms of this intensity, and equivalently that the maximum wind speeds of similar storms are now about 5 m/s (around 10%) stronger than in a world without climate change," World Weather Attribution (WWA) said Friday. "In other words, without climate change Milton would have made landfall as a Category 2 instead of a Category 3 storm."
WWA also detailed how the warming climate is connected to the water that Milton left in its wake. As the group said: "In 3 out of the 4 analyzed datasets we find that heavy one-day rainfall events such as the one associated with Milton are 20-30% more intense and about twice as likely in today's climate, that is 1.3°C warmer than it would have been without human-induced climate change. The fourth dataset shows much larger changes."
"These results are based on observational data and do not include climate models and are thus higher than the overarching attribution statement given for Hurricane Helene, where we combined observations and climate models. Nevertheless the results are compatible with those obtained for other hurricanes in the area that have been studied in the scientific literature," WWA continued. "Despite using different temporal and geographical event definitions, as well as different observational datasets and climate models, all these studies show a similar increase in intensity of between 10% and 50% and about a doubling in likelihood. We are therefore confident that such changes in heavy rainfall are attributable to human-caused climate change."
Both storms have generated fresh calls to "make polluters pay" for the damage and deaths caused by extreme weather exacerbated by fossil fuels. There are ongoing state-level lawsuits against Big Oil and recent demands for prosecutors to consider bringing criminal charges against companies, using attribution science to make their cases.
"This study has confirmed what should already be abundantly clear: Climate change is supercharging storms, and burning fossil fuels is to blame," Ian Duff, head of Greenpeace International's Stop Drilling Start Paying campaign, told Reuters about the WWA findings out Friday. "Millions of people across Florida—many of whom lack insurance—now face astronomical costs to rebuild shattered homes and communities."
Milton killed at least 16 people—on top of the over 230 deaths tied to Helene—and could cause up to $50 billion in insured losses for property owners in Florida alone, Fitch Ratings said Thursday. As of early Friday, over 2 million state residents still lacked power, according to CBS News.
While Milton barreled toward Florida on Wednesday, WWA published a report detailing how climate change was a "key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities."
That followed a Monday analysis from the research organization Climate Central showing that high sea-surface temperatures that fuled Milton's rapid intensification were made 400-800 times more likely by the climate crisis.
U.S. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) pointed to both of those studies on social media Friday, in a series of posts promoting his appearance on MSNBC's "All In With Chris Hayes" earlier this week.
During Khanna's MSNBC appearance, he pointed out how Democrats on Capitol Hill have fought for more funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which responds to disasters like Milton and Helene, while Republicans have opposed it.
Speaking to reporters last week, before Milton made landfall, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned that FEMA is urgently in need of more money for this hurricane season, which lasts until November.
"We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting," Mayorkas said in anticipation of Milton. "FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season."
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Deadly Flooding in Central Europe Made Twice as Likely By Climate Change: Study
"This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future."
Sep 25, 2024
The record-setting rainfall that hit Central Europe in mid September was made roughly twice as likely and 7% more severe by climate change, according to an analysis released Wednesday.
The 36-page study, conducted by scientists affiliated with World Weather Attribution (WWA), looked at the causes of the extreme rain that peaked from September 12 until September 15. Called Storm Boris, it hit many countries including Poland, Austria, and the Czech Republic, and set off flooding that killed at least 24 people.
The authors, whose work wasn't peer reviewed, warned that Storm Boris was a sign of what's to come.
"This is definitely what we will see much more of in the future," Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-author of the study, told the BBC.
"[It] is the absolute fingerprint signature of climate change... that records are broken by such a large margin."
The floods that killed 24 people in Central Europe were caused by rainfall made twice as likely and at least 7% heavier by climate change 📈🌧️
Floods will become more destructive and costly with further fossil fuel warming.
Our analysis was published this morning 🧵 https://t.co/0rJjYuYnUt
— World Weather Attribution (@WWAttribution) September 25, 2024
The heavy rainfall was caused by a Vb (pronounced "five-b") depression that "forms when cold polar air flows from the north over the Alps, meeting very warm air in Southern Europe," according to a WWA statement that accompanied the study.
The damage came partly from the fact that the storm lingered for many days, with rain falling on saturated ground and overflowing bodies of water. The WWA scientists didn't determine if the duration was affected by climate change; however, in general, the affect of climate change on the jet stream, which normally helps push weather patterns through the continent quickly, could play a role in causing storms to linger, experts say.
"These types of blocking situations and meandering jet stream-induced situations are increasing in frequency," Hayley Fowler, a climate scientist at Newcastle University who wasn't involved in the study, told NPR.
Other factors in the Stom Boris disaster were more clearly influenced by a warmer planet. The most basic and straightforward factor is that hotter air can hold more water—for each degree celsius that the Earth heats up, the atmosphere can hold about 7% more water, so there's more that can turn into rain.
The WWA study's key findings—a roughly twofold increase in the likelihood of Storm Boris and a 7% increase in intensity caused by climate change—may in fact be underestimates. The findings are "too conservative," the study says.
The analysis does contain good news: European authorities were more prepared for this storm than they had been in the past, likely saving dozens of lives.
Far more people died during extreme flooding episodes in the region in 1997 and 2002—more than 100, in each case—even though the rainfall in those events was less severe and didn't cover such a large area. Governments have since invested in forecasting, early warning systems, and flood defenses like levees. The city of Vienna has been particularly strong on flood preparations, and its investments paid off when Storm Boris did little damage there.
Otto, the co-author, said on social media that early warning systems worked well but flood defenses are, in general, still being put up "way too slowly." She said addressing the climate crisis would pay off in many ways for people on the continent.
"All Europeans need to know that tackling it will make their lives so much better—ending fossil fuels creates jobs, lowers energy bills, makes cities healthier places to live, and reduces the risk of killer floods," she said.
Many observers had assumed that climate change played a role in the flooding before the WWA analysis was released. On September 16, Greenpeace called for fossil fuel companies to pay for the damage caused by extreme weather events. The type of attribution science conducted by WWA helps strengthen the case for accountability, advocates say.
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Deadly Flooding in Europe Shows 'Dramatic Consequences' of Climate Change
"What you see here is worse than in 1997, and I don't know what will happen because my house is under water and I don't know if I will even return to it," one storm evacuee said.
Sep 15, 2024
Extreme flooding has claimed the lives of at least seven people in Central and Eastern Europe and forced thousands to flee their homes over the weekend.
Storm Boris—a low pressure system—has been lashing the area since Thursday, with major cities seeing a month's worth of rain and some areas seeing their heaviest rainfall in 100 years between Saturday and Sunday.
"We are again facing the effects of climate change, which are increasingly present on the European continent, with dramatic consequences," Romanian President Klaus Iohannis said, as The Guardian reported.
The storm has been deadliest in Romania, where four people were killed on Saturday and a fifth on Sunday, according to CNN. Hundreds of people also had to be rescued from rising waters.
The most impacted part of Romania was Galati, where the storm damaged around 5,400 homes—and around 700 in the village of Slobozia Conachi alone.
"This is a catastrophe of epic proportions," Mayor Emil Dragomir said, as The Guardian reported.
"The idiotic media have failed to make it clear what's coming—and this is still the beginning."
The sixth death came in Austria, where a firefighter battling flooding perished on Sunday. Authorities have declared a disaster for Lower Austria, where Vienna is located, and staged nearly 5,000 rescues there Saturday night. The storm also shut down rail service in the eastern part of the country.
"We are experiencing difficult and dramatic hours in Lower Austria," said the provincial governor Johanna Mikl-Leitner, as The Associated Press reported. "For many people in Lower Austria these will probably be the most difficult hours of their lives."
In Poland, one person drowned in the hardest-hit region of Kłodzko, where around 1,600 people were forced to evacuate and 17,000 lost power.
In another town of Stonie Slaski, flood waters overwhelmed a dam and collapsed a bridge, while the river in Glucholazy overflowed its banks.
"The situation is still very dramatic in many place[s]," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Sunday, according to CNN. "Unfortunately, these situations are repeating themselves in many places… but some residents sometimes underestimate the level of threat and refuse to evacuate."
The storm also pummeled parts of Slovakia, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, where some of the highest rainfall totals in the region were reported and where four people are still missing.
The storm forced 10,000 people from the city of Opava to flee their homes, and Mayor Tomáš Navrátil said conditions were worse than in 1997's so-called "flood of the century," according to AP.
"What you see here is worse than in 1997, and I don't know what will happen because my house is under water and I don't know if I will even return to it," Lipová-lázne resident Pavel Bily said, as The Guardian reported.
The rains are expected to continue at least through Monday.
In 2021, World Weather Attribution said that the climate emergency has made extreme flooding in Europe more likely. The storm also followed the hottest summer on record, as well as a warm beginning to September in the region, and warmer air can hold more moisture.
"People are in prison today for trying to warn the public how bad things are going to get," author Matthew Todd wrote on social media in response to footage of a dam bursting in Poland. "Scientists have taken to the streets to warn us."
"The idiotic media have failed to make it clear what's coming—and this is still the beginning," Todd continued. "Educate everyone you know."
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Only 7 Countries Meet WHO's Air Quality Guidelines as Fossil Fuels Worsen Pollution
"The science is pretty clear about the impacts of air pollution and yet we are so accustomed to having a background level of pollution that's too high to be healthy," said an official at Swiss firm IQAir.
Mar 19, 2024
A Swiss air quality monitoring firm on Tuesday said its latest worldwide data reveals the need for more walkable cities and a swift transition away from planet-heating fossil fuels, as just 7 out of 134 countries were found to meet global standards for dangerous air pollution.
IQAir found that Australia, Estonia, Finland, Grenada, Iceland, Mauritius, and New Zealand were the only countries that met the World Health Organization's (WHO) guidelines for particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) pollution, which is made up of microscopic airborne particles and can become embedded in peoples' lungs and even their bloodstreams, especially in cases of high exposure.
Three territories—Bermuda, French Polynesia, and Puerto Rico—also met WHO's standard.
PM2.5 can cause or aggravate asthma and has been linked to worsened lung function, heart attacks, respiratory ailments, and irregular heartbeat.
While IQAir measured countries' air quality against WHO's guideline for "safe" PM2.5 levels—five micrograms per cubic meter—U.S. scientists found last month that there is no safe amount of PM2.5 for humans.
IQAir found that PM2.5 levels were highest in the Global South. Bangladesh was found to have more than 15 times the amount of PM2.5 pollution than what is advised by WHO, while Pakistan's level was 14 times higher. The most polluted metropolitan area in 2023 was Begusarai, India, and India had four of most polluted cities in the world.
But "things have gone backwards" in wealthy countries as well, Glory Dolphin Hammes, North America chief executive of IQAir, told The Guardian, particularly as planetary heating has fueled wildfires like those that stunned scientists in Canada and Europe last year.
Canada, long a leader in air quality, had a PM2.5 level of 10.3 in 2023, and air quality across North America was "significantly influenced by extensive Canadian wildfires that raged from May to October." More than 40% of Canadian cities recorded annual PM2.5 levels that exceeded 10 micrograms per cubic meter. Eleven percent, or 35 cities, exceeded 15 micrograms per cubic meter, compared to just a single city in 2022.
World Weather Attribution directly linked Canada's wildfires to the climate emergency,
saying fossil fuel combustion and the resulting planetary heating made the blazes twice as likely.
The country's PM2.5 levels last year showed that governments "should act to make their cities more walkable and less reliant upon cars, amend forestry practices to help curtail the impact of wildfire smoke, and move more quickly to embrace clean energy in place of fossil fuels," Hammes told The Guardian.
"The science is pretty clear about the impacts of air pollution and yet we are so accustomed to having a background level of pollution that's too high to be healthy," she said. "We are not making adjustments fast enough."
Robb Barnes, climate program director for the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment, said the report shows Canada is "no exception" as governments are urged to confront the fact that "climate change, pollution, and burning fossil fuels is disastrous for human health."
Air pollution is blamed for an estimated 7 million premature deaths each year, with countries in the Global South—where clean energy sources are less available for heating and other uses—reporting the most deaths linked to PM2.5.
Frank Hammes, global CEO of IQAir, noted that much of the Global South, including many countries in Africa, lack air quality monitoring mechanisms.
"A clean, healthy, and sustainable environment is a universal human right. In many parts of the world the lack of air quality data delays decisive action and perpetuates unnecessary human suffering," said Hammes in a statement. "Air quality data saves lives."
In order to prevent more premature deaths linked to PM2.5 pollution, the report said, policymakers in Canada and other wealthy countries where air quality suffered in 2023 must take decisive steps to decrease PM2.5 emissions from fossil fuel-powered vehicles, power plants, and industrial processes, including:
- Broadening the adoption of renewable, clean energy in public transportation systems;
- Providing subsidies for battery-powered and human-powered modes of transportation;
- Championing infrastructure projects that enhance pedestrian mobility; and
- Introducing incentive programs to stimulate the adoption of clean air vehicles for commercial and personal purposes.
"IQAir's annual report illustrates the international nature and inequitable consequences of the enduring air pollution crisis," said Aidan Farrow, senior air quality scientist for Greenpeace International. "In 2023 air pollution remained a global health catastrophe. IQAir's global data set provides an important reminder of the resulting injustices and the need to implement the many solutions that exist to this problem."
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Climate Change Made Libya Flooding Up to 50 Times More Likely, 50% More Intense
"This devastating disaster shows how climate change-fueled extreme weather events are combining with human factors to create even bigger impacts," said the head of the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center.
Sep 19, 2023
International scientists announced Tuesday that an event like the extreme rain that led to deadly flooding in Libya earlier this month "has become up to 50 times more likely and up to 50% more intense compared to a 1.2°C cooler climate," or the preindustrial world.
Those were among the findings of a World Weather Attribution (WWA) analysis of torrential rainfall in several countries across the Mediterranean during the first two weeks of September, conducted by researchers from Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
"The research is top notch and follows established... rapid attribution principles, grounded in peer-reviewed methods and data that pass highest quality standards," said Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist at the Leipzig University in Germany not involved with the analysis.
While the storm dubbed Daniel by Greek meteorologists impacted various countries, the African nation of Libya—which has been in chaos since 2011—was by far the worst affected, largely due to a pair of dams that failed and let floodwaters kill thousands in the city of Derna.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Saturday that at least 3,958 people were killed and over 9,000 more were still missing. Some groups have reported higher figures, such as the Libyan Red Crescent, which previously put the death toll at 11,300.
Haustein noted that in terms of the death and destruction in Libya, the WWA researchers "discuss a host of confounding factors (long-lasting armed conflict, political instability, potential design flaws and poor maintenance of dams) that have led to an extreme level of vulnerability and exposure. All independent of climate change."
"Accordingly, they do not speculate about the role of climate change regarding damage and fatalities," the scientist explained. "Rather they highlight that the lack of early warning action and disaster relief has played a critical role in worsening the destructive outcome. The implications as far as adaptation is concerned are crucially important nonetheless, especially in light of the drastically increased risk for an event like this to happen again within the coming decades (rather than twice a millennium)."
Julie Arrighi, interim director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, which had researchers working on the WWA report, said that
"this devastating disaster shows how climate change-fueled extreme weather events are combining with human factors to create even bigger impacts, as more people, assets, and infrastructure are exposed and vulnerable to flood risks."
"However, there are practical solutions that can help us prevent these disasters from becoming routine," Arrighi stressed, "such as strengthened emergency management, improved impact-based forecasts and warning systems, and infrastructure that is designed for the future climate."
The WWA team also found that for the region including Greece and parts of Bulgaria and Turkey, human-induced climate change made an extreme event up to 10 times more likely and up to 40% more intense. As the WWA report notes, the flooding led to at least 17 deaths in Greece, seven in Turkey, six in Spain, and four in Bulgaria.
"The worst-affected region in Greece, the Thessaly plain, accounts for over one-quarter of the country's agricultural production, the report says. "After more than 75,000 hectares were inundated, it is estimated that the agricultural sector in Thessaly will need five years to recover from the damages and for the lands to become fertile again."
Friederike Otto, a climatologist at the U.K.'s Imperial College London who worked on the WWA analysis, said Tuesday that "the Mediterranean is a hotspot of climate change-fueled hazards."
"After a summer of devastating heatwaves and wildfires with a very clear climate change fingerprint, quantifying the contribution of global warming to these floods proved more challenging," Otto added. "But there is absolutely no doubt that reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience to all types of extreme weather is paramount for saving lives in the future."
The analysis was released on the eve of the United Nations Climate Ambition Summit in New York City—which some world leaders, including U.S. President Joe Biden, have decided to skip despite demands for bold action, particularly from rich nations that are largely responsible for the planetary emergency.
Jagan Chapagain, secretary general of the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, said Tuesday that "the disaster in Derna is yet another example of what climate change is already doing to our weather."
"Obviously multiple factors in Libya turned Storm Daniel into a human catastrophe; it wasn't climate change alone. But climate change did make the storm much more extreme and much more intense and that resulted in the loss of thousands of lives," Chapagain continued. "That should be a wake-up call for the world to fulfill the commitment on reducing emissions, to ensure climate adaptation funding, and tackle the issues of loss and damage."
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