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"This is easily the biggest impact on child survival that I've seen from an intervention that was designed to alleviate poverty," said one researcher.
With newly embraced direct cash assistance programs a casualty of the Trump administration's slashes to foreign aid, a study released Monday showed that such direct transfers had a "showstopping result" in reducing child mortality rates in low-income families in the Global South.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) on Monday released a study of cash transfers given to more than 10,000 households in Siaya County, Kenya between 2014-17 by the nonprofit group GiveDirectly.
The group provided $1,000 in three installments—without conditions on how it would be spent—over eight months to the families, covering about 75% of their expenses.
Researchers examined the effects over a decade, completing census surveys and collecting data on households that received the funds versus those that didn't.
Unsurprisingly, and as numerous previous studies have shown, the NBER found that the cash transfers dramatically improved the families' lives, helping them to sustain themselves even amid a drought and the coronavirus pandemic. Economic activity in the 650 villages the researchers examined also improved.
But the dramatic decline in infant and childhood mortality rates "became obvious almost immediately," the New York Times reported, and surprised the researchers and other observers.
"This is easily the biggest impact on child survival that I've seen from an intervention that was designed to alleviate poverty," Harsha Thirumurthy, an economist at the University of Pennsylvania who was not involved in the study, told the Times.
NBER found that the unconditional cash transfers led to 48% fewer deaths before a child reached age 1 and 45% fewer deaths in children under the age of 5.
The transfers appeared to help mothers take parental leave, with a 51% decline in women performing hard labor in the last months of their pregnancies and the three months after giving birth.
The direct infusion of cash also helped women receive prenatal care they might otherwise not have received.
"I have seen firsthand what it means when an expectant mother can't access timely care," said Dr. Miriam Laker-Oketta, a senior research adviser for GiveDirectly, in a video posted on YouTube by the group about the project's results. "I remember a time when a woman arrived after being in labor for three days. Sadly, by the time she arrived, her baby had already died. Our clinic was nearby, but she never had a prenatal visit where her condition might have been caught early."
Laker-Oketta told the Times that "when you come across an intervention that reduces child mortality by almost a half, you cannot understate the impact."
The research was released four months after US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce said in a press briefing that the Trump administration was terminating a number of foreign assistance awards "because they provided cash-based assistance, which the administration is moving away from given concerns about misuse and lack of appropriate accountability for American taxpayers here at home."
That announcement came just six months after the US Agency for International Development (USAID) signaled a long-awaited shift and said it would "include direct monetary transfers to individuals, households, and microenterprises... as a core element of its
development toolkit."
"Critically, transfers respect the dignity of individuals, households, and microenterprises by allowing them to make spending and investing decisions, while also promoting efficient markets such that entire communities and regions, not just recipients benefit. In sum, direct monetary transfers provide USAID with a flexible and localized programming approach to achieve development objectives," said the agency in a position paper last October.
As Daniel Handel, a policy director at the foreign aid think tank Unlock Aid, told NPR this month, the embrace of direct monetary aid at the agency "was largely unheard of" a decade earlier.
"There was an amazing amount of handwringing about the idea," Handel told NPR, with officials concerned about families "misspending" the money. The shift last year was "a real sea change," he added.
As Common Dreams has reported, experts have warned that President Donald Trump's cuts to foreign aid will be a "death sentence for millions of people" in the Global South.
According to a study published in The Lancet last month, "projections suggest that ongoing deep funding cuts—combined with the potential dismantling of the agency—could result in more than 14 million additional deaths by 2030, including 4-5 million deaths among children younger than 5 years."
A federal court ruled last week that Trump can move forward with the cuts, including nearly $4 billion in funding for global health programs and more than $6 billion for HIV and AIDS programs.
NBER's study suggested the State Department's plan to abandon cash transfers could be a driving cause of the "death sentence" caused by the cuts; the researchers found that "infant and child mortality largely revert to pre-program levels after cash transfers end."
"At 2 am, Republicans just passed a bill to defund public broadcasting and lifesaving aid because Trump told them to—they wouldn't even protect rural radio or emergency alerts."
In the early hours of Thursday morning, Senate Republicans passed legislation that would claw back $9 billion in previously approved congressional funding for public broadcasting and foreign aid programs targeted by President Donald Trump's White House.
The final vote count was 51 to 48, with Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) joining Democrats in opposing the package, which now heads back to the GOP-controlled House for final passage. The legislation would cement some of the Trump administration's lawless, unilateral attacks on programs approved by Congress with bipartisan support.
"At 2 am, Republicans just passed a bill to defund public broadcasting and lifesaving aid because Trump told them to—they wouldn't even protect rural radio or emergency alerts," said Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), the vice chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, warning that the GOP's partisan clawback of funding imperils all future spending negotiations.
"Congress should decide what we spend and what we cut—not Trump and not Russ Vought," Murray added, referring to the director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
In a floor speech ahead of the Thursday morning vote, Murray said Vought refused to be specific about which programs would be cut if the rescissions bill passes.
"It's one of the great outrages of this package," said Murray. "At our hearing with him, he refused to go into detail. He stonewalled us. We asked and we asked. The chair, the Republican chair, even asked him about this. But OMB would not tell us. The question is: What will you cut? The answer has been: Pass it, we'll see."
"The thing that's particularly dangerous about it is that this is probably a test case. If they pull it off with these topics, they'll move on to more and more and more topics."
The White House rescissions request was broadly outlined in a May memo authored by Vought, an architect of the far-right Project 2025 agenda.
The Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which helps fund PBS and NPR, is expected to face over $1 billion in cuts, while the rest of the rescissions package targets foreign assistance.
"With this vote, Senate Republicans are telling us everything we need to know about their priorities," said Alex Jacquez, the Groundwork Collaborative's chief of policy and advocacy. "After passing a tax law that gives a massive giveaway to billionaires and raises costs on working families, Senate Republicans are now codifying DOGE's deeply unpopular and reckless cuts to vital programs. Once again, Republicans are failing to deliver on the one thing they promised: lower prices. Instead, they're waging a campaign that will make life more expensive and difficult for working families while lining the pockets of the wealthy."
During the marathon amendment process, Republicans rejected Democratic proposals to shield public safety alerts and prevent cuts to international disaster relief programs.
Vought has signaled that the White House will likely submit more rescissions requests if the $9 billion in cuts make it through Congress.
Kate Riley, the president and CEO of America's Public Television Stations, said in a statement following the Senate vote that the rescissions bill would "eliminate federal funding to the local public television stations throughout this country that provide essential lifesaving public safety services, proven educational services, and community connections to their communities every day for free."
"This elimination of federal funding will decimate public media and put local stations at risk of going dark, cutting off service to communities that rely on them—many of which have no other access to locally controlled media," Riley warned.
Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) accused Republicans of weaponizing the rescissions process to attack "some of their favorite enemies, like National Public Radio, Elmo, or food for starving people overseas."
"The thing that's particularly dangerous about it is that this is probably a test case," Whitehouse added. "If they pull it off with these topics, they'll move on to more and more and more topics, bringing their Musk-type chainsaw to projects which Congress has approved on a bipartisan basis, put into law, and funded."
All foreign assistance programs will now be managed by the secretary of state.
A cable from the U.S. State Department Tuesday showed that the Trump administration is eliminating the entire international workforce of the foreign aid agency that has provided lifesaving assistance in the Global South for over six decades.
"The Department of State is streamlining procedures under National Security Decision Directive 38 to abolish all USAID overseas positions," read the cable, referring to the U.S. Agency for International Development. The document was obtained by The Guardian.
USAID was one of the first targets of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), whose former leader, billionaire Elon Musk, has baselessly called the agency a "criminal organization."
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced in March that 5,200 of the agency's 6,200 international initiatives had been eliminated and that the few remaining programs were now under the control of the State Department.
The announcement by Rubio on Tuesday means all foreign assistance programs will be managed by the department, with the administration firing hundreds of foreign service officers, contractors, and local employees across more than 100 countries.
USAID officials and international humanitarian experts have warned since the Trump administration first moved to freeze foreign assistance in January that cuts to the agency would leave at least 1 million children without treatment for malnutrition, leave 200,000 more children paralyzed from vaccine-preventable polio over next decade, and cause up to 160,000 deaths from malaria.
But President Donald Trump has persistently claimed the agency is "run by a bunch of radical lunatics" and Rubio has said USAID operates "independent of the national interest."
"Everything they do has to be aligned with U.S. foreign policy," said Rubio earlier this year.
The announcement of the elimination of USAID's entire workforce came as government watchdog Public Citizen released a new report on Trump's stop-work order affecting the agency in January. The order "likely affected 32 USAID-funded clinical trials conducted across 25 countries and as many as 94 thousand participants."
According to the report:
Due to the stop-work order, said Nina Zeldes, a health researcher at Public Citizen's Health Research Group, "researchers were unable to safeguard the welfare of participants and uphold their ethical obligations."
Public Citizen said that "the sudden, medically uncalled-for suspension of the clinical trials was a serious violation of research ethics, potentially jeopardizing the health of trial participants and the integrity of the trials."
The Center for Global Development also published an analysis Tuesday of estimates that have stated the White House's proposal of cutting global health and humanitarian aid funding by two-thirds would put 1 million lives at risk.
Researchers Charles Kenny and Justin Sandefur found that it was "implausible" that cuts to U.S. foreign assistance would only impact so-called "waste" and would preserve lifesaving assistance, as the administration has claimed.
"Using our estimates of costs per life saved for U.S. global health and humanitarian assistance based on available empirical evidence, we can calculate the potential number of lives at risk from such cuts," wrote Kenny and Sandefur. "The calculation suggests the cuts could lead to 675,000 additional deaths from HIV, and a combined 285,000 deaths from malaria and tuberculosis."