Oil Giants' Profits Soar as Trump's Iran War Estimated to Deliver $1 Trillion Hit to World Economy

A fossil fuel industry watchdog is estimating that US President Donald Trump's illegal war with Iran could deliver a $1 trillion hit to the global economy—while oil and gas giants reap the benefits.

According to a Tuesday report in The Guardian, climate advocacy group 350.org is estimating that the Iran war will impose between $600 billion and over $1 trillion in additional costs to households, businesses, and governments, depending on how long the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The Guardian noted that even this eye-popping economic cost "is likely to be an underestimate because it does not include the substantial knock-on effects of inflation, particularly higher fertilizer and food costs, lower economic activity, and rising employment."

350.org's analysis came on the same day that US gas prices rose to their highest level since Trump launched the Iran war in late February.

As reported by The New York Times, the average price for a gallon of gas jumped by 1.6% to $4.18 on Tuesday, the highest price for a gallon of gas since April 2022, shortly after Russia disrupted global energy markets with its invasion of Ukraine.

While consumers are paying more at the pump, fossil fuel companies are raking in massive profits. British oil giant BP on Tuesday posted a profit of $3 billion for the first quarter of 2026, which exceeded Wall Street analysts' expectations and was more than double the profit it reported in the first quarter of 2025.

Clémence Dubois, global campaigns director at 350.org, said that BP's blowout earnings report showed how Big Oil's business model depends on the suffering of working people.

"Families are being pushed to the brink by spiraling energy bills, while fossil fuel companies turn a war into a windfall," said Dubois. "This is not just unjust, it’s unacceptable. Fossil fuels companies don’t just heat the planet, they fuel and thrive on geopolitical tension, insecurity, and human suffering. The solutions exist, what’s missing is the political will to stop polluters [from writing] the rules."

In a Tuesday social media post, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) more succinctly echoed Dubois' message.

"It's day 59 of Trump's war with Iran," she wrote. "Gas prices are 40% higher since the war began."

Rep. Sylvia Garcia (D-Texas) similarly pinned the blame on Trump for high gas prices, and took at shot at her Republican colleagues who have spent the last two days lobbying to build the president's proposed $400 million luxury ballroom with public funds.

"Gas is $4.18 and rising because of Trump’s war with Iran," Garcia wrote. "Republicans are ripping away healthcare and pushing millions off SNAP. And their priority? $400 million in taxpayer money for Trump’s ballroom. They don’t give a damn about helping working people."

Rep. Tim Lieu (D-Calif.) expressed a similar sentiment.

"Gas prices have jumped to the highest level in four years," he wrote. "What are Trump and Republicans focused on? Spending $400 million dollars of taxpayers' money for a White House ballroom that most Americans will never be able to access, and building a giant arch in DC for Trump."

Dylan Williams, vice president for government affairs at the Center for International Policy, marveled at the political tone deafness of Republicans pushing to fund Trump's ballroom amid a cost-of-living crisis.

"Republicans seem to be betting that Americans will stop worrying about the Iran war and high gas prices," he wrote, "when they hear the good news that they’ll also be paying for Trump’s ballroom."