The 3 Phases of Trump's Quagmire in Iran

President Donald Trump launched the Iran war based on his “gut instinct.” Global financial markets—the North Star that guides Trump—are telling him what his advisers and congressional Republicans won’t: His “gut” blew it badly, and his efforts to appease the markets are making the debacle worse.

He has proceeded in three phases. We’re now at the Trump panic phase.

Phase No. 1: Trump’s Gut Was Wrong and the Markets Scolded Him

Trump ignored the facts and relied on gut instinct to launch the war without making the case to America’s allies or the public:

We were having negotiations with these lunatics, and it was my opinion that they were going to attack first.

Trump’s baseless opinion contradicted the justification for war that Secretary of State Marco Rubio had provided to Congress a day earlier. Rubio said that Israel was going to attack and that Iran would retaliate by attacking US interests in the region.

Even worse, Trump ignored long-predicted consequences:

• Iran attacked neighboring countries aligned with the United States;
• It closed the Strait of Hormuz to the US and its allies, disrupting one-fifth of the world’s oil supply;
• The global price of oil surged from $72 per barrel to more than $100 per barrel;
• Because Iran’s major source of revenue is oil—accounting for 35% of its federal budget—Trump funded the enemy’s war chest; and
• Global financial markets plummeted.

Phase No. 2: Trump’s First Effort to Calm Markets Helped Putin

Trump’s initial assurance that the war would be over in “four to six weeks” offered the markets only sporadic and temporary relief. So he started down the slippery slope of eliminating longstanding sanctions on Russian oil.

Oil and natural gas are Russia’s most important sources of revenue, accounting for 30% to 50% of the federal budget. Sanctions had forced Russia to charge India $22 per barrel in January, putting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economy on an unsustainable path. But on March 5, Trump issued a 30-day waiver allowing India’s purchases from Russia.

Trump’s waiver was a boon to Putin, but the global price of oil kept rising and the markets kept falling.

Phase No. 3: Trump Panicked and Made Matters Worse

On March 11, Trump released 172 million barrels from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve—the world’s largest supply source of emergency crude oil. But the oil would not make a dent in the global market, would take 120 days to deliver, and would leave the Strategic Reserve at its lowest level since 1982.

The price of oil kept rising, and the markets kept falling.

On March 13, over the objections of the European Union, Trump removed sanctions on Russian oil that was already at sea. It was another gift to Putin, but the price of oil kept rising and the markets kept falling.

On March 20, Trump lifted sanctions on 140 million barrels of Iranian oil “currently stranded at sea.” In addition to providing Iran with $14 billion windfall, his action contradicted Trump’s contemporaneous claims that he had “won” the war and was considering “winding it down.”

As Brett Erickson, managing principal at a firm that specializes in financial crime and regulatory issues, observed: “You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.”

Meanwhile, the price of oil kept rising, and the markets kept falling.

Trump’s panic became clear on Saturday, March 21, when he threatened to commit a war crime:

If Iran doesn’t FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!

By Monday morning, the price of oil was skyrocketing and Asian and European markets were sinking. Shortly before the US stock market opened, Trump panicked again. He withdrew his threat and said that because the US and Iran had held “productive” talks, he was postponing the attack on Iranian’s energy infrastructure for five days.

The price of oil dropped more than 10%, and global markets soared. Meanwhile, it appeared that insiders with knowledge of Trump’s planned announcement made hundreds of millions of dollars in pre-announcement bets that crude oil prices would decline.

But then Iran’s foreign ministry denied Trump’s assertion about settlement talks, although through intermediaries the US and Iran had exchanged messages that “appeared to be short of negotiations.”

Within a day, the price of oil resumed its upward climb and the financial markets fell.

Panic begets panic. On March 26, Trump announced a 10-day extension to April 6 of his prior threat to commit a war crime by attacking Iran’s energy facilities. He asserted that settlement negotiations were proceeding while at the same time issuing contradictory statements about his war plans:

The Iranians “were begging for a deal,” but “they better get serious” and “talks were going very well.”

He wanted US allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, but didn’t care if they refused.

“We already won the war,” but Trump was massing more than 50,000 US troops in the region and threatened a ground assault on Iran’s main oil production facility.

He “may or may not” use the military to secure Iran’s uranium.

Trump’s defenders argue that his contradictory actions are strategic. It’s more likely that panic has him flailing. His gut instinct led him to make a colossal mistake, and he has no idea what to do next.

Worst of all for Trump: The financial markets are finally on to him.