At COP30, Progress on Public Finance Is Critical for a Fair Fossil Fuel Phaseout

At COP28 in Dubai, countries finally agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. That pledge signaled the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era. But words alone won’t cool the planet, and in the years since, fossil fuel production has only continued to rise, driven primarily by rich countries.

As ministers arrive in Belém for the final COP30 sprint, the world must move from words to action. That means ending fossil fuel expansion and unlocking the public finance needed to build a fair, fast, and funded energy transition.

Oil Change International's recent analysis shows that just four countries—the United States, Canada, Australia, and Norway—increased their oil and gas production by nearly 40% since the Paris Agreement, while production in the rest of the world dropped by 2%. These countries, despite their wealth and historic responsibility for the climate crisis, are dragging the world backwards. The impacts are clear: worsening climate disasters, rising energy costs, and growing injustice.

Meanwhile, the finance to support the transition is nowhere near what’s required. A fossil-fuel phaseout isn’t just about avoiding runaway climate change, it’s about making energy cheaper, safer, and more reliable in an increasingly unstable world. Cutting dependence on oil and gas shields countries from price swings, lowers bills, creates jobs, and supports climate-resilient development. But to ensure everyone shares in the benefits, international cooperation, and government planning and funding is key. This is illustrated by today’s fast but unequal renewable energy deployment, the energy access gap, and NDCs lacking concrete plans to phase out oil and gas.

A just transition is the only way to deliver real climate action. And it won’t come from voluntary pledges or corporate-led initiatives.

During the first week of COP two topics were at the center of discussions: Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva’s push for a road map to transition away from fossil fuels, and developing countries’ insistence on centering wealthy countries’ legal obligation to deliver public climate finance under Article 9.1. A road map cannot be successful without the latter. Massive investments are needed in grids and storage, energy access and just transition plans, particularly in developing countries, and private finance is poorly suited to meet these needs. It also adds to already unsustainable debt levels, while many Global South countries already spend more on debt repayments than on education, healthcare, or climate action. Rising debt is choking climate action.

And yet, the European Union, United Kingdom, Canada and Japan, among others, are overselling the role of private finance in covering the energy transition bill. This not only disregards their legal obligation to provide public climate finance at a scale that meets needs, affirmed recently by the world’s highest international court. It also sets the world up for energy transition failure.

It does not have to be this way. The public money needed for a fair fossil fuel phaseout, a just transition, and adaptation exists. As rich countries cut overseas aid, while they increase their military spending, it is important to remember that governments have a choice. They can unlock $6.6 trillion every year through fair taxes, ending fossil fuel subsidies, cancelling unjust debts, and supporting reforms to the unfair global financial system.

COP30 offers a chance to course correct. Governments must stop issuing new licenses for fossil fuel extraction and launch a formal process to implement the COP28 decision to transition away from fossil fuels. That means equitable national phaseout plans, support for just transitions, and an end to fossil fuel finance. It also means wealthy countries fulfilling their Article 9.1 obligations, and providing the public money needed for a transformation rooted in justice.

A just transition is the only way to deliver real climate action. And it won’t come from voluntary pledges or corporate-led initiatives. It must be driven by governments and shaped by people on the frontlines of the crisis: workers, Indigenous Peoples, and communities across the Global South.

Movements are rising to demand a fossil-free future that is equitable and achievable. At COP30, world leaders must choose whose side they are on. The choice is clear: Plan a fossil fuel phaseout, pay your fair share, and deliver a just transition for workers and communities, or fuel the fire while the planet burns.