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One anonymous American military official told Axios that the US seemed to be revving up for "Noriega part two," suggesting a regime change war may be on the horizon.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said the United States was pointing "1,200 missiles" at his country during a news conference Monday, and issued a stark warning that he was prepared to "constitutionally declare a republic in arms" should the US attack.
The US is set to raise the number of military vessels deployed near Venezuela to eight this week, which Maduro described as "the greatest threat that has been seen on our continent in the last 100 years."
Following an authorization by Trump to use military force against Latin American drug cartels, the Associated Press and CBS News report that "the US Navy now has two Aegis guided-missile destroyers—the USS Gravely and the USS Jason Dunham—in the Caribbean, as well as the destroyer USS Sampson and the cruiser USS Lake Erie in the waters off Latin America."
This week, an anonymous Defense Department official told the AP that, "three amphibious assault ships—a force that encompasses more than 4,000 sailors and Marines—would be entering the region this week."
"In response to maximum military pressure," Maduro told the international press, "we have declared maximum readiness to defend Venezuela," adding that the country "will never give in to blackmail or threats of any kind."
Though the US has not made any public threats to invade Venezuela, an unnamed official told Axios Thursday that Trump was planning something akin to "Noriega part two," referring to the US-led invasion of Panama, which overthrew its leader, Manuel Noriega, in 1989.
"The president has asked for a menu of options," the official added, "and ultimately this is the president's decision about what to do next, but Maduro should be shitting bricks."
Trump has a long history of calling for US intervention to overthrow the South American nation's government.
During Trump's first term, he repeatedly suggested that the US should invade Venezuela to take Maduro out—an idea that his top aides rebuffed.
Trump instead dramatically escalated sanctions on Venezuela, which many studies have shown contributed to the nation's historic economic crisis. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo explicitly acknowledged that the goal of these sanctions was to push the Venezuelan people to topple Maduro.
In 2023, following his first presidency, Trump lamented at a rally that the US had to purchase oil from Venezuela, saying that if he were in charge, "We would have taken [Venezuela] over; we would have gotten to all that oil; it would have been right next door."
According to Responsible Statecraft, lobbying groups in bed with Exxon Mobil have been leading the campaign for "maximum pressure" against Venezuela, with the goal of protecting the company's control of over 11 billion barrels of oil in neighboring Guyana, which has been referred to as a "petrostate" closely aligned with the oil giant.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made several posts in support of Guyana as it backed Trump's escalation with Venezuela.
As Joseph Bouchard and Nick Cleveland-Stout wrote:
Rubio has all but committed to a U.S. security guarantee for Guyana and Exxon. On a visit to Guyana in March, he warned Venezuela against attacking Exxon's oil fields. "It woultd be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were ever to attack Guyana or attack ExxonMobil," Rubio said then.
Prior to that, Rubio obliquely suggested in a Fox Business interview that there may be plans in the works to force Maduro out of power, saying the Venezuelan president was "going to have to be dealt with."
On Monday, Maduro said Rubio was leading Trump "into a bloodbath... with a massacre against the people of Venezuela."
Trump's deployment of warships to Venezuela is part of what he says is an effort to use military force against drug cartels, which his administration has dubbed terrorist groups.
Though Trump has named Maduro as a global drug kingpin and the leader of the Venezuelan Cartel de los Soles, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yván Gil disputed that accusation Monday, calling it a "false narrative."
He cited the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime's 2025 World Drug Report, which says that Venezuela is not a major cocaine-producing or transit country.
This is backed up by data from the US Drug Enforcement Agency, which has found that 84% of the cocaine seized in the US comes from Colombia.
According to UNODC, "the majority of Colombian cocaine is being trafficked north along the Pacific coast," rather than trafficked through Venezuela. Just 2% of all the cocaine seized by UNODC is in Venezuela, ranking it sixth among Latin American countries.
"For there to be a drug cartel, either you produce (the drugs), you process it, or you traffic it," Venezuelan congresswoman Blanca Eekhout told CNN. "If there is no cultivation, production, or drug trafficking in Venezuela, how can there be a cartel? It's unsustainable."
As Trump's military threats have revved up, Maduro has mobilized tens of thousands of soldiers and several warships to prepare for a possible invasion.
This weekend, the streets of Caracas filled up with demonstrators opposing US aggression and supporting Maduro's military recruitment efforts. They were joined by supporters across the globe in cities including London, Johannesburg, Sydney, and Mexico City.
(Video: Forbes)
Even members of Maduro's opposition have harshly criticized the idea of US intervention. Henrique Capriles, a frequent critic and one-time presidential opponent of Maduro, told the BBC that although he opposes Maduro's antidemocratic actions in the most recent election, he wants to see the tensions between Venezuela and the US solved through negotiations rather than gunfire.
"There are no good wars; they're all bad. That's my position, and I'm not afraid to express it publicly," Capriles said. "Most of the people who want a military solution and a US invasion don't live in Venezuela. They don't even consider the consequences. Human lives are lost."
The new U.S. goal is to lock the region into permanent reliance on fossil fuels, only now under a network of energy-rich countries overseen by the United States.
The Trump administration is organizing a network of energy-producing states in the Caribbean to provide the region with a steady supply of fossil fuels, despite the environmental risks.
Hoping to sideline Venezuela, the oil-rich country that once provided the Caribbean with affordable supplies of oil, the Trump administration is working to position other oil-rich countries as the region’s primary suppliers of energy. Administration officials are particularly focused on Guyana and Suriname, two oil-rich countries that they hope the region’s leaders will embrace as alternatives to Venezuela.
“The fact that now their own countries—Guyana, Suriname—are able to have and really surpass Venezuela in its oil production and be able to work with its neighbors there in the region is a huge opportunity for the Caribbean,” U.S. Special Envoy for Latin America Mauricio Claver-Carone said at a March 25 press briefing.
Over the past two decades, the United States has engaged in a major rivalry with Venezuela for influence in the Caribbean. The U.S.-Venezuela rivalry has centered on oil, a fossil fuel that many Caribbean nations import to meet their energy needs.
Early in the 21st century, Venezuela took advantage of its vast oil reserves to become a major supplier of oil for the Caribbean. Under a program called Petrocaribe, Venezuela shared its oil wealth by providing Caribbean countries with shipments at low rates.
Many Caribbean countries embraced Petrocaribe. Not only did the Venezuelan program enable them to meet their energy needs, but it empowered them to begin developing their economies more independently of the United States, which has long been the dominant power in the region.
Rather than fully embracing environmentally friendly alternatives to Petrocaribe, however, U.S. officials quietly engaged in a geopolitical game over oil.
For many years, the United States failed to offer alternatives to Petrocaribe. While Venezuela emerged as a powerful counterweight to U.S. power in the Caribbean, officials in Washington faced the possibility that formerly dependent countries would break free from the U.S. orbit.
With its influence waning, the United States eventually developed its own energy program. In 2014, the Obama administration introduced the Caribbean Energy Security Initiative, which offered Caribbean countries technical assistance, financing for energy projects, and political support for regional energy planning.
U.S. officials presented the initiative as a way of bringing clean energy to the Caribbean. The program, they said, would empower Caribbean countries to transition away from fossil fuels and reduce their dependence on oil imports.
“You, the countries of the Caribbean, have a chance at the supply of energy that’s more resilient, more sustainable, cleaner, more affordable than you have ever, ever had,” Joe Biden told Caribbean leaders in 2015, when he was vice president in the Obama administration.
Rather than fully embracing environmentally friendly alternatives to Petrocaribe, however, U.S. officials quietly engaged in a geopolitical game over oil. Believing that the United States could outmatch Venezuela on fossil fuels, they set out to find ways of achieving regional dominance in oil and natural gas.
One tactic was to promote U.S. fossil fuel exports to the Caribbean. “We have more oil and gas rigs running in the United States than all the rest of the world combined,” Biden boasted in 2015, when he was promoting the Caribbean Energy Security Initiative.
Another tactic focused on finding new sources of fossil fuels in the Caribbean. Several U.S. officials developed high hopes for Guyana, a South American country with large offshore oil deposits. In 2015, ExxonMobil announced significant discoveries, raising expectations that the country would become one of the region’s largest suppliers of oil.
As U.S. officials pushed alternative sources of fossil fuels, they also sought to end Venezuelan influence altogether. Acting consistently with the long history of U.S. coups and interventions in Latin America, the United States sought to bring down the Venezuelan government.
The first Trump administration made some of the most audacious moves, openly embracing regime change. From 2017 to 2019, it imposed severe sanctions on the country’s finances and oil industry to facilitate the collapse of the Venezuelan government.
Although the Venezuelan government survived the challenges, which continued into the Biden administration, the country experienced an unprecedented economic collapse. With its oil industry in decline and under restrictions by U.S. sanctions, Venezuela could no longer maintain Petrocaribe, diminishing its efforts to be a major supplier of oil for the Caribbean.
Since the second Trump administration entered office in January, it has faced a new power dynamic in the Caribbean. With Venezuela having undergone one of the worst economic collapses for a country not at war, including a major decline in its oil industry, the administration finds itself in a position to restore U.S. supremacy in the Caribbean.
Moving to take advantage of the situation, the Trump administration has added a new dimension to the geopolitics of oil. Hoping to permanently sideline Venezuela and exclude it from the Caribbean altogether, it has begun to create a network of oil-producing countries that will provide the region with oil under U.S. direction.
“This is an opportunity,” Claver-Carone said at the March 25 press briefing. Caribbean countries “are going to be able to support each other, to be able to create an energy security framework, which has already changed the geopolitics of the region.”
Administration officials are trying to create a security agreement with Guyana that will provide the country with the same kinds of military protections that the United States extends to its energy-rich partners in the Middle East.
In recent weeks, the Trump administration has made several moves in pursuit of its goals. On March 24, President Trump issued an executive order that threatened to impose a tariff of 25% on any country that imports oil from Venezuela. Trump’s order put strong pressure on Caribbean leaders who have been hoping to revive Petrocaribe.
Second, the Trump administration has organized U.S. diplomatic visits to Caribbean nations. At the end of March, Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Guyana and Suriname, where he praised their leaders for embracing oil production and encouraged them to work together in a new network under U.S. leadership.
Surinamese President Chandrikapersad Santokhi said that he anticipated that Guyana and Suriname “will become important partners for the Caribbean and the Western Hemisphere.”
Still, Venezuela remains in a position to challenge the United States. It is continuing to produce more oil than Guyana and Suriname combined, enabling it to maintain some exports to countries in the Caribbean. It is also claiming sovereignty over Essequibo, the western part of Guyana that includes the country’s offshore oil deposits.
The Trump administration has responded aggressively to Venezuela’s territorial claims, signaling that the U.S. military will intervene if Venezuela attempts to seize any of Guyana’s territory. Administration officials are trying to create a security agreement with Guyana that will provide the country with the same kinds of military protections that the United States extends to its energy-rich partners in the Middle East.
Claver-Carone envisioned “a greater security cooperation agreement with Guyana—almost akin to what we’re working on with some of the Gulf states.”
The Trump administration’s strategy marks a major turning point for the Caribbean. Whereas the United States had once presented the region with options for shifting away from fossil fuels, it has now abandoned that approach. The new U.S. goal is to lock the region into permanent reliance on fossil fuels, only now under a network of energy-rich countries overseen by the United States.
What the Trump administration is doing, in other words, is implementing a far more dangerous geopolitics of oil. As it moves to isolate Venezuela, it is pushing energy-dependent nations to embrace fossil fuels, regardless of the environmental consequences for the region and the world.
"The current border impasse between Guyana and Venezuela is yet another example of United States imperialism's design to expand and usurp countries' natural resources around the world," said one observer.
As increased U.S. military aid to Guyana and ExxonMobil's oil exploration in contested waters exacerbate a territorial row between Venezuela and Guyana, satellite images made public on Friday purportedly showed increased Venezuelan military activity near the two countries' disputed border.
The Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS), a Washington, D.C.-based foreign policy think tank partly funded by the U.S. government and a bevy of Pentagon contractors, published satellite photos showing what the institution says is an "escalatory" buildup of Venezuelan land and naval forces near the Guyanese border.
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez on Thursday blamed the United States and U.S.-based ExxonMobil for inflaming tensions in contested Essequibo region after the Biden administration said earlier this week that it would help Guyana purchase new aircraft, helicopters, drones, and radar technology.
"The imperialist powers want unrestricted access and material and political control of the area and its resources."
Rodríguez condemned the "warmongering U.S. influence" and "the energy multinational [that] not only usurps the sovereignty of Guyana... but also seeks to protect its illicit operations in a sea that is pending demarcation."
ExxonMobil—which has been active in the region for more than 15 years—announced this week that it would ramp up exploration in an offshore area claimed by both Venezuela and Guyana. The Venezuelan government refuted a claim made Wednesday by Guyanese Foreign Minister Robert Persaud that the area to be explored by ExxonMobil "is within established Guyana waters in a fully demarcated area."
Rodríguez said these developments are clear violations of the Argyle Declaration, a December 2023 agreement between Caracas and Georgetown to renounce threats or use of force and settle disputes peacefully according to international law. The two countries reaffirmed their commitment to "peaceful resolution" during a summit in Brazil last month.
Venezuela has long claimed Essequibo, a resource-rich region along South America's northeastern coast that makes up around two-thirds of Guyana's territory that in 1899 was awarded by U.S., British, and Russian arbitrators to what was then the colony of British Guyana.
As Andreína Chávez Alava explained Thursday at Venezuela Analysis:
In recent months, Caracas has repeatedly denounced U.S. interference and military threats as the territorial dispute with Guyana escalated. In December, [U.S. Southern Command] carried out flight operations with the Guyana Defence Force and a British warship arrived in Guyanese waters for open sea defense exercises. In response, Venezuela held large-scale military drills of its own.
The December 3 Essequibo referendum held in Venezuela likewise raised tensions between the countries as Guyana interpreted the move as an attempt to forcefully annex the region. Voters overwhelmingly supported the country's sovereignty claim over the Essequibo and [Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro ordered the creation of a new Venezuelan state called Guayana Esequiba as well as civil and military institutions for the disputed area.
Anti-imperialist voices have argued that Guyana is being used as a "pawn" by the United States. The U.S. has had a long history of meddling in Venezuelan affairs in service of its strategic and economic interests.
"The current border impasse between Guyana and Venezuela is yet another example of United States imperialism's design to expand and usurp countries' natural resources around the world and reinforce its geopolitical agenda," author Richard S. Dunn wrote Thursday for Covert Action.
"With the discovery of oil in the Essequibo region, the imperialist powers want unrestricted access and material and political control of the area and its resources," Dunn added. "The United States, Britain, France, and Canada are 'piling up' over each other for control of the oil-rich Essequibo."