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The head of the Andean nation's largest Indigenous rights group accused President Guillermo Lasso of launching a "cowardly self-coup" and pushing the country toward an "imminent dictatorship."
Days before Ecuadorian lawmakers were expected to vote on removing him from office, Guillermo Lasso, Ecuador's deeply unpopular right-wing president, dissolved the country's National Assembly, a move progressive critics called a bid to avoid impeachment.
For the first time ever, Lasso invoked Article 148 of the Ecuadorian Constitution, which gives presidents the power to dissolve the legislature under certain circumstances, including legislative overreach and a "severe political crisis and domestic unrest."
The move, popularly known as "muerte cruzada"—"the death cross"—will allow Lasso to rule by decree for six months. It came a day after the president defended himself before lawmakers during an impeachment trial for allegedly turning a blind eye toward embezzlement.
"Not having the necessary votes to save himself from his imminent dismissal, Lasso launched a cowardly self-coup with the help of the police and the armed forces, without citizen support, becoming an imminent dictatorship," Leonidas Iza, head of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE), the country's largest Indigenous rights group, said in denouncing the move.
As Will Freeman, Latin America specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations, explained last week:
The impeachment process originated in a scandal that erupted in January 2023. That month, Ecuadorian journalists denounced members of Lasso's inner circle for allegedly mismanaging public companies and maintaining ties to Albanian mafia groups that have come to dominate Ecuador's lucrative cocaine trafficking routes. The journalists say their information came from a police investigation, although Ecuador's attorney general has claimed the source material was doctored.
After the journalists published leaked audio clips corroborating aspects of their story, one top government appointee, Hernan Luque, became a fugitive from justice. Another businessman allegedly connected to the ring, Rubén Cherres, was found murdered. In March, a majority of Ecuador's National Assembly asked to start impeachment proceedings. Ecuador's Constitutional Court partially granted the request, allowing a vote on the corruption allegations to move forward.
Ousting Lasso from office would require the votes of 92 of the National Assembly's 137 members. The motion to proceed with the impeachment process received 88 votes.
Lasso denies both the corruption allegations and accusations that he dismissed lawmakers in order to derail the impeachment.
"Ecuador needs a new political and social pact that will allow it to get out of the political crisis in which it finds itself," Lasso said during a mandatory nationwide television and radio address, according to teleSUR. "We must move towards a solution that offers hope to families and puts an end to a useless and irrational confrontation."
Article 148 stipulates that the National Electoral Council (CNE) must call presidential and legislative elections within seven days of lawmakers' dismissal, although the electoral process is allowed to take up to six months.
The CNE came under fire during the 2021 presidential election—in which Lasso, a former banker, defeated progressive economist Andrés Arauz—for trying to prevent Arauz from running by, among other things, banning his political party and then outlawing another party he tried to form.
Arauz wanted to have progressive former Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa as his running mate, but the CNE banned him from the ticket. Electoral officials also blocked the Arauz campaign from using Correa's voice or image—but allowed Arauz's opponents to depict the former president in a negative manner.
Correa—who argued that what Lasso is doing is "illegal"—looms large during the current crisis. Although the former president fled Ecuador rather than face trial for what he claims are baseless corruption charges, he still controls the largest bloc of National Assembly lawmakers.
Lasso wasted no time in exercising his new powers.
"Starting today, the national government will issue decrees that will comply with the mandate that you gave me," he said during his address to the public. "I have signed a first decree to reduce taxes on families. It will be sent to the Constitutional Court for its review."
The president promised that "public services will operate normally," and that "the armed forces and the police continue to guarantee security."
As Lasso spoke, state security forces surrounded the National Assembly building to block anyone from entering or leaving the legislature, teleSUR reported.
Nelson Proaño, head of the Ecuadorian military's Joint Command, delivered a brief Wednesday morning address to the nation in which he endorsed Lasso's invocation of Article 148.
"Therefore, it is subject to a constitutional norm and must be fully and completely respected by all citizens," Proaño asserted. "I wish to remind Ecuadorians that the armed forces and the National Police are obedient and nondeliberative institutions and we fulfill our mission strictly abiding by the Constitution."
Freeman wrote last week that "Ecuador is likely headed for a period of increased instability."
"Given the acute challenges Ecuador is already facing—from surging crime to mass migration to a weak economy—that is something ordinary Ecuadorians can hardly afford," he added.
On Monday, protests erupted throughout Ecuador. The demonstrations, coordinated by the CONAIE, or Conderation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador, accompanied by student groups and labor unions, resisted a planned hike in fuel prices.
Without mounting public national, regional, and international pressure, the Lasso government will not be pushed to make any concessions to the Ecuadorian people.
The CONAIE is represented by the environmentalist indigenous Pachakutik Party in the National Assembly in Quito, the second-most powerful party on the left.
The group also put forward 10 demands to the center-right government of President Guillermo Lasso. The demands include a halt to the expansion of oil and mining exploration, as well as a freeze on the price of petroleum and agricultural products.
Protests were first concentrated in the historical downtown of Quito, disrupting businesses, infrastructure, and tourism. I was personally in the area when the protests occurred, forcing me to escape the police's use of tear gas to disperse the crowd.
In the coastal countryside and in the Amazon, protesters have also targeted oil and mining towns, as well as agricultural centers, allegedly leading to the deaths of two mine workers and one protester in the southern highlands.
Some cities have been paralyzed, as protesters have blocked major highways. The Lasso government has implemented swift measures, instructing the use of tear gas against protesters, while also conducting a series of broad arrests and targeted raids.
The leader of the CONAIE Leonidas Iza was arrested and put on trial for sabotage, though he was promptly released as a result of public pressure. Local independent journalists have also been arrested and targeted by the police and military.
These clashes are not new. They have come periodically since 1997 and have been most potent against conservative or neoliberal governments proposing price and tax increases to reduce Ecuador's national debt.
Between 1997 and 2005, the protests deposed three Presidents in Ecuador, showcasing the strength of left-wing activism in Ecuador.
The protests in the late 1990s and early 2000s also helped usher in three consecutive mandates by President Rafael Correa, who championed policies of the populist left and was part of the Pink Tide movement in South America.
Correa's predecessors in the Pink Tide included Lula in Brazil, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Ollanta Humala in Peru, Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Michelle Bachelet in Chile, and the Kirschners in Argentina.
Correa's tenure was characterized by an expansion of public education, transportation, healthcare, and a vast redistribution of wealth between the rich and poor strata of Ecuador.
Even after 10 years, Correa maintains a high approval rating, oscillating between 55 and 65 percent according to independent polling in Ecuador.
During Correa's tenure, the CONAIE and other indigenous, student, and labor groups played a large role in Ecuadorian politics, being assigned key ministerial positions and holding the balance of power in Congress.
Yet, in 2017, as Correa decided not to run again--citing family reasons--Ecuadorian politics took a hard turn to the right. At the ballot box, Ecuadorians chose to elect Lenin Moreno, who, despite running with Correa's party, governed as a center-right President.
Then-President Moreno focused his tenure on reducing the debt and the deficit, expanding small business, and welcoming international investment and tourism. These priorities came to the detriment of the quality of public services, which sharply decreased as a result of austerity measures.
Such austerity measures, including price hikes for fuel and other essential goods and services, led to mass protests in 2019, where left-wing activists once again took to the streets hoping to reverse the measures and depose Moreno.
The protests were highly violent, leading to the deaths of between 8 and 23 protesters at the hands of state security forces.
Moreno, due to public pressure, canceled the planned price hikes and decided not to run for reelection in 2021. Since then, Moreno's successor, Guillermo Lasso, has continued many of the austerity measures put in place by his successor. A price increase on fuel has once again been put forward, leading to the ongoing protests.
One may question why the two center-right presidents were elected given the popularity of former left-wing President Correa and the tremendous backlash to austerity measures, but the Ecuadorian left is highly divided.
While the center and the right, including Ecuador's financial, political, and media elites, were largely united behind former President Moreno and current President Lasso, the left is split up between a variety of political parties and interest groups, all of which have different policy preferences and priorities.
Like in 2019, these protests will be a test of the determination of the current government for austerity measures and neoliberal policies.
The Lasso government's aggressive response, claiming that they will "not allow the country to be paralyzed," and alluding to the possible use of violence if necessary, may end up uniting the left further and pushing it towards more violent resistance. Unfortunately, the lack of international attention to the protest and Ecuador's contentious political past, present, and future may give the Lasso more leeway in its response.
The protesters should focus their attention on gaining international coverage and recognition, in the hopes of containing the Lasso government's response. Then, a high death toll may be avoided, constitutional and human rights be respected, and the groups' demands be listened to.
Without mounting public national, regional, and international pressure, the Lasso government will not be pushed to make any concessions to the Ecuadorian people.
Indigenous environmental defenders in Ecuador on Sunday pointed to a pipeline rupture in the Amazon rainforest as "the exact reason why we oppose oil extraction" as the pipeline operator temporarily halted pumping crude oil.
A pipeline constructed by OCP Ecuador burst on Friday after a rockslide, according to NBC News. Videos posted on social media by the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) and Amazon Frontlines showed oil spraying out of the pipeline into the rainforest.
OCP Ecuador claimed it had contained the spill so "it cannot contaminate any bodies of water," but environmental defenders said the spill would be a "disaster" for more than 27,000 Indigenous Kichwa people living downriver from the spill on the banks of the Coca River.
More than 60,000 people depend on water from the river, according to NBC News.
"The river is contaminated. Look," said a campaigner in a video posted by Amazon Frontlines, showing oil flowing into the Coca River. "Thousands of liters are being spilled into the river. Thousands and thousands."
The group said OCP Ecuador "lied and knowingly endangered Kichwa communities" when it said in an official statement Saturday that the burst pipeline was not "directly exposed to rivers" and that the oil flow had been controlled.
"These are the lies that put lives at risk," said Amazon Frontlines. "We must end the impunity!"
The ruptured pipeline has caused the second major oil spill in the Ecuadorian Amazon in two years.
Indigenous communities are "still suffering impacts of massive April 2020 oil spill," said Amazon Frontlines, noting that a lower court threw out a lawsuit filed by the Kichwa last year; the case is now pending before Ecuador's Constitutional Court, with the plaintiffs demanding remediation of the oil spill.
"Spills have become a part of our daily life, and we live with the contamination for decades. The oil industry has only brought us death and destruction," Andres Tapia of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of the Ecuadorian Amazon told NBC News Sunday after the latest spill. "We are calling on the government to halt oil expansion plans and properly clean up this spill and all the others that continue to contaminate our territories and violate our rights."
The pipeline that burst Friday pumps about 450,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
About two-thirds of the oil extracted from the Amazon rainforest is exported to the United States, and Ecuadorian President Guillermo Lasso has called for doubling the country's oil production since taking office last year.
In a bid to halt what one Indigenous leader called a "policy of death," communities from Ecuador's Amazon region on Monday sued the country's right-wing president, who is planning a major expansion of fossil fuel extraction and mining that threatens millions of acres of pristine rainforest and the survival of native peoples.
"President Guillermo Lasso intends to impose an extractive agenda and sacrifice the lives of thousands of Indigenous families who inhabit these territories."
In the first of a series of lawsuits against President Guillermo Lasso, Indigenous nations, groups, and advocates allege that Executive Decree 95--which aims to double the country's oil production to one million barrels per day by deregulating the fossil fuel industry--violates their internationally recognized right to free, prior, and informed consultation and consent.
Lasso, a former banker who defeated progressive economist Andres Arauz in a second-round runoff election in April, has also said he wants to make mining one of Ecuador's leading income sources.
Monday's lawsuit will be followed by a second suit against Executive Decree 151, which loosens environmental controls to expedite foreign mining companies' entry into the Amazon region against the wishes of Indigenous peoples. The plaintiffs are demanding Ecuador's Constitutional Court strike down both decrees.
"The Ecuadorean government sees in our territory only resource interests," Waorani of Pastaza (CONCONAWEP) President Nemonte Nenquimo said outside the Quito court, according to Reuters. "Our territory is our decision and we'll never allow oil or mining companies to enter and destroy our home and kill our culture."
According to Amazon Watch:
These decrees are a threat to the Amazon, its peoples, and the climate. They pave the way for a massive expansion of extraction in some of the most ecologically fragile and culturally sensitive areas, and if history is any lesson, promise continued rights violations of Indigenous peoples and nature.
Viktor Quenama, president of the A'i Kofan community of Sinangoe, said, "We are fighting to defend our territory, our rivers, our forest, our fish, and our animals. Without our forest and without water, we cannot live."
"We have made a firm decision to keep our territory free from mining," he added. "We don't want the Aguarico River and its tributaries to be exploited and contaminated. Our elders, youth, men, and women are all united in this struggle. We want to care for our territory so that future generations can live well. The Ecuadorian government must respect our rights and let us live freely."
Maria Espinosa, an attorney with the advocacy group Amazon Frontlines, said that "we are presenting these lawsuits against Executive Decrees 95 and 151 because we consider that these decrees are in clear violation of Indigenous people's rights to prior consent and pre-legislative consultation."
"These decrees seek to accelerate extractive activities such as oil and mining, which generate grave and irreparable impacts against the physical and cultural survival of Indigenous peoples," she continued. "Through unconsulted administrative procedures and the pretext of economic development, President Guillermo Lasso intends to impose an extractive agenda and sacrifice the lives of thousands of Indigenous families who inhabit these territories."
Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) President Leonidas Iza said that the Ecuadorian government seeks "to continue this policy of death."
"This isn't a problem of the Indigenous," asserted Iza, "it's one of civilization."
Ecuador's April 11 election that led to a 5-point victory by right-wing banker Guillermo Lasso over progressive candidate Andres Arauz was not what it appeared to be. On the surface, it was a surprisingly clean and professional election, as our CODEPINK official observer delegation witnessed. But a fraud-free process for casting and counting ballots does not mean that the election was free and fair. Behind the scenes was a monumentally unequal playing field and dirty campaign designed to quash an Arauz win.
For starters, Arauz--a 36-year-old follower of the political leanings of former president Rafael Correa and his Citizens Revolution--barely even got on the ballot. The political party he tried to run under was banned by the National Electoral Council (CNE). He and his supporters formed a new political party and that, too, was banned. Eventually they found a small party that let them borrow their slot, but by then it was late December and the first round of elections was on February 7. The other campaigns had a four or five month head start.
Arauz, who was virtually unknown, wanted to have Rafael Correa as his vice president, but the CNE banned Correa from being on the ticket. Even more astounding, the electoral authorities actually prohibited the Arauz campaign from even using Correa's voice or image. But in a show of blatant bias, they didn't banish Correa's image from being used in a negative way by his opponents.
Another intense obstacle was the role of the media. The corporate media dominate all the airwaves in Ecuador, and they were clearly in the Lasso camp. The media led a dirty campaign spreading fake news about Arauz, Correa and their supporters. They scared people by claiming that Arauz was going to de-dollarize the economy. Ecuador has been using the dollar as its currency since 2000, after a financial crisis saw the collapse of its former currency, the sucre. An economist, Arauz was well aware that dollarization had stabilized Ecuador's economy and he never even suggested going back to the sucre.
A particularly absurd accusation came from Colombia, where the country's right-wing attorney general claimed that the National Liberation Army, an armed insurgent group that has been operating in Colombia for decades, made an $80,000 loan to Arauz's campaign. Based on a doctored video that was proven to be false, this accusation nevertheless continued to circulate throughout the press to sully Arauz's character.
"The media smear campaign went hand-in-hand with attacks on the left that had been going on for the past four years under the presidency of Lenin Moreno."
A concerted smear campaign also attacked the legacy of Rafael Correa to scare people away from voting for Arauz. During his time in power from 2007 to 2017, Correa brought economic and political stability to a country that had had seven presidents in ten years. Correa, who has a Ph.D. in economics, completely transformed Ecuador into a modern democracy with a vibrant middle class. He also brought tremendous gains to the poor, reducing poverty from 37 percent to 22 percent, and built critical infrastructure, including highways, hospitals and schools. But the portrayal in the media made Correa out to be a corrupt authoritarian who was a threat to democracy, creating a dilemma for the Arauz campaign about how much to align itself with Correa's legacy.
The media smear campaign went hand-in-hand with attacks on the left that had been going on for the past four years under the presidency of Lenin Moreno. Ironically, Moreno had been Rafael Correa's vice president and ran on the ticket of Correa's Citizens Revolution. But once in power, he orchestrated a kind of "silent coup," betraying Correa, the Citizens Revolution and the progressive policies they stood for. Making common cause with the elites, including Guillermo Lasso, he imposed austerity policies and signed a terrible deal with the IMF that focused on budget cuts, deregulation and reducing workers' rights. In October 2019, there was an uprising against the elimination of a fuel subsidy that would have raised prices on everything from transportation to food. It was put down violently by Moreno's government and many of the protest leaders remain in prison today.
Lasso supported Moreno's austerity measures, the deal with the IMF and the violent crackdown on protesters, yet his campaign successfully managed to create distance between him and Moreno. The narrative spun in the media was that Arauz would continue in the footsteps of Moreno and Correa, as if Moreno had not betrayed the movement.
Moreno viciously lashed out at the left through the misuse of the legal system for political purposes, a tactic known as "lawfare." Jorge Glas, Moreno's vice president who spoke out against his betrayal of the Citizens Movement, was accused of corruption, convicted and put in jail, where he remains under dire conditions. Moreno's government attacked Correa himself, who went into exile in Belgium to avoid being thrown into prison. There are about 30 charges pending against Correa, including a farcical accusation that he had psychic influence over people that led them to become corrupt.
Other top party leaders were hounded and are now either jailed, under house arrest, or forced into exile. The decapitation of the Citizens Revolution meant that Arauz's campaign was significantly weaker than it would have been with their help.
Given all the strikes against Arauz, it is remarkable he did so well. Had it not been for lawfare, a biased CNE and a dirty campaign, he would have won. However, another major factor was the rift between the Citizens Revolution and the indigenous movement that happened under Correa's tenure, which led to calls for a "null vote."
The Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) and its political party Pachikutik were represented in the first round of voting by Yaku Perez, who did well but didn't make the final cut. Feeling that neither of the two presidential candidates represented the indigenous community, Perez called for people to spoil their ballot by "voting null" (voting is mandatory in Ecuador so a spoiled ballot is the equivalent of boycotting the election).
There was some dissent from the "vote null" position--just days before the election, CONAIE President Jorge Vargas came out in favor of Arauz--but a significant percentage of indigenous peoples voted blank. Roughly 1.7 million Ecuadorians decided to either vote blank or to spoil their ballot. That was a critical factor in the election, given that Lasso won by only about 420,000 votes. Accused of enabling a right-wing victory, some members of Pachakutik argued that they voted null because they believe they can bring down the Lasso government through popular uprisings similar to what occurred in October 2019.
A victory by Arauz would have helped people struggling during this pandemic--Moreno so mismanaged the health situation that Ecuador has one of the world's worst COVID death rates and the economy has been devastated.
Arauz would have also strengthened the left throughout Latin America, promoting the kind of regional integration that took place during the so-called Pink Tide in the early 2000s when a succession of progressive governments took power in Latin America and the Caribbean. New institutions were created such as UNASUR, the Union of South American Nations, and CELAC, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States. These became a counterbalance to the Organization of American States, which is used as a tool of the U.S. State Department to promote U.S. foreign policy throughout the region. These new regional organizations were part of a much broader vision of regional integration along the lines of the European Union.
If those organizations were as strong now as they had been several years ago, it's likely that Latin America would have been in a better position to deal with the pandemic because they could have bought vaccines together and cooperated on public health policies.
In the coming years, Ecuador's Citizens Revolution will have to use this time to regroup, repair frayed relations with indigenous and union groups, and build a strong social base of support. This social base is something they never really achieved, even under Correa's mandate. They do, however, still have a majority in the National Assembly. The second biggest assembly bloc is the indigenous party Pachakutik, which will undoubtedly be courted by Lasso's government but also has left tendencies. So there may be room to make alliances and fight back against Lasso's austerity policies.
On the regional level, it's a shame that Ecuador won't be helping to swell the ranks of the Pink Tide. But hopefully, other nations in Latin America--such as Peru, Chile, Brazil and even Colombia--have a chance in the coming years to keep the second wave of the Pink Tide afloat.
Following left-wing economist Andres Arauz's loss to right-wing former banker Guillermo Lasso in Ecuador's recent presidential election, Progressive International on Monday argued that the disappointing results reflect the unsettling "triumph of lawfare" and underscore the need for progressive forces of all stripes to unify behind an emancipatory vision in order to "defeat the reactionary right" worldwide.
"Only the strategic unity of progressive forces--leftist, Indigenous, feminist, ecologist, and beyond--is strong enough to defeat the reactionary right."
--Progressive International
In a contest that pitted Lasso's neoliberal agenda of privatization and upward redistribution against Arauz's social-democratic plans to improve the welfare of working-class Ecuadorians, many expected Arauz to emerge victorious.
Instead, Arauz--considered a protege of former President Rafael Correa, a champion of the left who implemented policies that increased standards of living for the poor when he governed Ecuador from 2007 to 2017--conceded defeat.
"I congratulate him on his electoral triumph today and I will show him our democratic convictions," Arauz said Sunday night in the wake of Lasso's surprising win. Lasso, a two-time runner-up in presidential elections, received about 53% of ballots to Arauz's 47%.
David Adler, co-founder of Progressive International, a global coalition seeking egalitarian change, commended Arauz for running on a "creative and compassionate" platform of "political-economic transformation that should inspire the world."
In the wake of Arauz's "devastating loss," Adler said, "now is the time for reflection."
According to Adler, "The triumph of lawfare should send a chill through the global community."
Last year, Steve Striffler, a professor of anthropology at University of Massachusetts Boston who studies labor history and Latin American politics, warned that the prosecution of Correa by a judiciary acting on behalf of Ecuador's then-President Lenin Moreno represented an expansion of "lawfare," which he defined as "a well-worn strategy" used by the region's "resurgent right" to sideline progressive political opponents through "manipulation of the judicial system."
"What is new in the case of Ecuador is the scale of this practice," wrote Striffler. "Perverting the legal system in order to subvert the democratic process has become the defining strategy--indeed, the essence--of [Moreno's] government, which is faced with plummeting popularity and an opposition that would win in any fair election. This is not good news for democracy in Ecuador or Latin America."
Striffler's warning looks prescient. Correa--who is now living in his wife's home country of Belgium after his politicized corruption conviction sent him into exile--backed Arauz, but years of right-wing attacks on Correa and his political allies appear to have hurt the leftist movement he spearheaded and his successor's campaign.
Some observers have also suggested that intraleft conflicts over extraction and Indigenous rights in Ecuador, where oil resources helped finance Correa's social programs, played a role in Arauz's defeat.
In February, Arauz led the first round of voting with more than 30% while Lasso barely made it into the final by beating Yaku Perez, an Indigenous candidate from the Pachakutik party, by roughly half a percentage point.
According to France24, "Pachakutik refused to back either candidate in the second round and promoted blank votes."
"Perez publicly annulled his own vote writing, 'Yaku president resistance' on his ballot," the news outlet reported. "Around 16% of votes were invalid, up from 9.55% in the first round."
Progressive International tweeted: "The key lesson of the Ecuadorian election is the core of our internationalist project."
"Only the strategic unity of progressive forces--leftist, Indigenous, feminist, ecologist, and beyond--is strong enough to defeat the reactionary right," the organization continued.
"United we win," the group said. "Divided we lose."
As economists, we share a general concern when economic issues are widely misunderstood in political debates that can determine policy, sometimes with lasting consequences. This appears to be a problem in Ecuador at the moment, in the heat of an election campaign.
"In the United States, we have seen the dangers of misinformation multiplied to dangerous levels during the past four years. We hope that Ecuador can avoid these kinds of problems in its upcoming election."
Media reports have repeated, without any evidence, false allegations about the economic program of one of the presidential candidates. Andres Arauz, a former minister and Director General of the Central Bank who is currently leading in most polls, has been accused of seeking to abandon the country's current use of the dollar as its national currency. There is no evidence that he or his political party would do anything at all in this direction.
A transition from the dollar back to a national currency would be costly and involve risks that would be exacerbated by the current dire and precarious economic situation. This false allegation is clearly an attempt to scare voters, and indeed those promoting it have warned of a resulting economic collapse if the dollar is abandoned.
In fact, not only has Arauz emphasized that he is committed to maintaining the dollar as the national currency, he and his party have a long track record of taking strong measures to make sure that dollarization did not come under threat. These included reforms which kept billions of dollars within Ecuador, such as taxing capital leaving the country, financial regulation--including regulations on foreign banks within the country--increased accountability of the Central Bank; and other reforms and policies that kept the economy stable and avoided crises for the 10 years of the Rafael Correa presidency (2007 to 2017).
These policies and reforms prevented even the slightest threat to Ecuador's commitment to the dollar, even when Ecuador was hit hard by the world recession of 2009, as well as other severe external shocks including a collapse of oil prices in 2014, and steep falls in remittances.
Voters need to have accurate information about the most important issues, including economic issues, that are facing the country when they choose a government.
As a result of this prudent economic management, the economy did very well during the Correa years, and the gains were widely distributed. Income per person rose by 20 percent and poverty fell by more than 38 percent from 2006 to 2017. The Gini coefficient for net household income (which measures inequality) fell by almost 15 percent between 2006 and 2017. During these years, social spending more than doubled as a percent of GDP. Much of this went to healthcare and education, with enrollment rates in secondary education increasing 26 percent; the number of people treated in public hospitals rose by 56 percent.
Ironically, it is some of Arauz's opponents who are proposing measures that could put Ecuador's dollarization at risk, by doing away with the necessary financial regulation. Guillermo Lasso--Arauz's main competitor--has called for the elimination of capital controls, which would make the country vulnerable to balance of payments crises that could threaten the dollar's place as Ecuador's currency.
In contrast to the previous presidency, the economy under the current government has run into serious trouble. GDP is estimated by the IMF to be over 10 percent lower in 2020 than it was in 2017. Of course, much of this was a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, but a large part of these losses were a result of bad decisions. GDP per capita fell 1.5 percent from 2017to 2019, even before the Covid-19 crisis hit. And in 2019, the government signed an IMF agreement committing to a fiscal tightening of 5 percent of GDP over the next three years.
Some of the required spending cuts provoked widespread protests, which were met with serious repression. This repression, which left at least 9 dead and over 1500 injured, was investigated by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights, which called for further investigations into numerous reports of "unnecessary and disproportionate use of force" by security forces. Indigenous groups were especially affected, with Ecuador's largest indigenous organization filing a lawsuit against the Ecuadorian government for alleged "crimes against humanity."
Another false economic claim has been promoted in the current election cycle: that the Correa government ran up an unsustainable debt which the current government had to reduce. In fact, the Correa government left office with a debt of 45 percent of GDP. Under the current government, Ecuador's debt increased to 69 percent of GDP.
Voters need to have accurate information about the most important issues, including economic issues, that are facing the country when they choose a government. In the United States, we have seen the dangers of misinformation multiplied to dangerous levels during the past four years. We hope that Ecuador can avoid these kinds of problems in its upcoming election.
Original signers (in alphabetical order)
(name, affiliation for identification purposes)
James K. Galbraith, Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. Chair in Government/Business Relations and Professor of Government, LBJ School of Public Affairs, University of Texas at Austin
Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Mark Weisbrot, Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research
Signers (in alphabetical order)
(name, affiliation for identification purposes)
Eileen Appelbaum, Co-Director, Center for Economic and Policy Research
Alan Aja, Professor & Chair, Dep. of Puerto Rican & Latino Studies, Brooklyn College (CUNY)
Michael Ash, Professor of Economics & Public Policy, UMass Amherst
Amiya Bagchi, Emeritus Professor, Institute of Development Studies Kolkata, Adjunct Professor, Monash University
Ron Baiman, Associate Professor of Economics
Dean Baker, Senior Economist, Center for Economic and Policy Research
Peter Bohmer, Faculty emeritus in Economics and Political Economy, The Evergreen State College
Korkut Boratav, Turkish Social Science Association
Manuel Branco, Professor, University of Evora, Portugal
Jim Campen, Professor of Economics, Emeritus, University of Massachusetts Boston
Anis Chowdhury, Adjunct Professor, Western Sydney University, Australia
Alan Cibils, Chair, Political Economy Departmente, Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento, Argentina
Nathaniel Cline, Associate Professor, University of Redlands
Andrew Cornford, Geneva Finance Observatory
Dante Dallavalle, Adjunct Lecturer of Economics, John Jay College
Peter Dorman, Professor of Economics Emeritus, Evergreen State College
Jeff Faux, Distinguished Fellow, Economic Policy Institute
Sujatha Fernandes, Professor, Department of Sociology and Social Policy, The University of Sydney
Kevin Gallagher, Director, Global Development Policy Center, Boston University
Daphne T. Greenwood, Professor of Economics, University of Colorado-Colorado Springs
Fadhel Kaboub, Denison University
Mary C. King, Professor of Economics Emerita, Portland State University
Gabriele Kohler, Independent Development Consultant
Michael A. Lebowitz, Professor Emeritus, Economics Department, Simon Fraser University
Stephan Lefebvre, Assistant Professor, Bucknell University
Arthur MacEwan, Professor of Emeritus of Economics, University of Massachusetts Boston
Ann Markusen, Professor Emerita, Humphrey School, University of Minnesota
Michael Meeropol, Professor Emeritus of Economics, Western New England University
Lara Merling, Policy Advisor, ITUC
Mritiunjoy Mohanty, Professor, Indian Institute of Managment Calcutta, Kolkata, India
Isabel Ortiz, Director, Global Social Justice Program, IPD, Columbia University
Mustafa Ozer, Professor, Anadolu University
Christian Parenti, Associate Professor of Economics, John Jay College, CUNY
Mark Paul, Assistant Professor of Economics, New College of Florida
Alicia Puyans, Economics Ptoffeso Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Socialed
Philippe Quirion, Senior scientist/Directeur de recherche, CNRS (France)
Miriam Rehm, Professor, University of Duisburg-Essen
Joseph Ricciardi, Associate Professor of Economics, Babson College
C. Saratchand, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Satyawati College, University of Delhi
Saskia Sassen, The Robert S. Lynd Professor of Sociology, Columbia University
Max B. Sawicky, Senior Research Fellow, Center for Economic and Policy Research
Stephanie Seguino, Professor of Economics, University of Vermont
Tazdait Tarik, Senior Researcher, CNRS (France)
Rolph van der Hoeven, Professor, Erasmus University, The Netherlands
Irene van Staveren, Professor of Pluralist Development Economics, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam
Matias Vernengo, Professor, Bucknell University
Scott Weir, Economics (retired), Wake Technical Community College
John Willoughby, Professor, Department of Economics, American University
John Womack Jr., Robert Woods Bliss Professor of Latin American History and Economics, emeritus, Harvard University
Ecuador has just staged another successful democratic election--as even the Wall Street Journal now reports, based on international election observers from the Organization of American States (OAS) that have no love for the Ecuadorian party that won the election. Most of the foreign reportage on the election focuses on Julian Assange, who has taken refuge in Ecuador's embassy in London. But what are the real problems that Lenin Moreno and the people of Ecuador will face when he becomes President?
Ecuador's oligarchs have run the country for most of its existence, crippling economic development and producing high rates of unemployment, poverty, and inequality. The neo-liberal policies that became synonymous with the "Washington Consensus" led to extreme financial deregulation and privatization that produced the typical wave of "control fraud." The nation's leading bankers led that epidemic of fraud by seemingly legitimate banks. The fraud epidemic led to one of the many banking crises of the late 1990s that swept through Latin America. The banking crisis drove a serious recession, led to exceptional levels of emigration from Ecuador, produced extreme political instability in Ecuador--and set the stage for the election of the reformist Rafael Correa. Correa and his supporters created the Alianza Pais (AP). Correa became president in 2007. The AP has a majority holds a majority of the seats in Ecuador's unicameral legislature.
The election of Correa and AP supporters, and the discrediting of the oligarchs based on their economic and political malfeasance and thefts, created the political space for dramatic changes in Ecuador's public policies that have broad support among the people of Ecuador. Hundreds of thousands of Ecuadorians have "voted with their feet" to return from emigration to work and live in Ecuador. Poverty, unemployment, and inequality all fell under President Correa.
Any president of Ecuador faces six major challenges. The most basic is its poorly diversified economy. It is heavily dependent on oil sales to produce dollars--and the price of oil has collapsed.
This second problem is that Ecuador's oligarchs "dollarized" the economy. Ecuador gave up its sovereign currency and made the U.S. dollar its official currency. Argentina did something equivalent, pegging the exchange rate of its currency to the dollar at 1:1. Ecuador dollarized because the public did not trust its government to limit inflation. Dollarization was so politically powerful that the AP has not dared to readopt a sovereign currency. Dollarization degrades or destroys Ecuador's ability to use appropriate fiscal stimulus against a recession, increases Ecuador's cost of borrowing, and poses a critical risk to Ecuador's ability to export if the U.S. dollar appreciates compared to the currencies in Ecuador's trading partners. Argentina had to break its dollar peg when the U.S. dollar appreciated and savaged Argentina's ability to export. President Moreno is unlikely to want to take on this controversial issue near the beginning of his term, but I urge him to restore Ecuador's sovereign currency.
The third problem is that Ecuador, despite the AP's doubling of expenditures on education, health, and infrastructure, remains a nation with significant poverty and educational systems that are not world class. Ecuador has made enormous progress on these areas over the ten years of Correa's term in office, but it started from an impoverished base. When we teach public finance, we tell students that the budget constitutes the government's real policies. President Moreno can show in his budget his dedication to the virtuous trinity of successful development--health, education, and infrastructure. I urge him to wean Ecuador away from its public subsidies to consumers to purchase energy such as cheap gasoline. The subsidy creates perverse incentives that slow growth and create serious budgetary constraints.
The fourth problem is political and social divisions. During much of his term in office, Correa was exceptionally popular, but ten years in office inevitably lead to opposition. The AP lost mayoral elections in some of Ecuador's largest cities. The AP respected the democratic process and there was a peaceful transition of power in these cities. There are regional divisions, primarily between the peoples of the Andean highlands and the coast. There are divisions based on race and ethnicity.
There are also gaping divisions based on extreme wealth. The oligarchs have not gone away and they dominate industry and banking. The oligarchs view tax evasion with pride. Their (narrowly) defeated candidate in the presidential election, Guillermo Lasso, is a bank leader notorious for helping the oligarch's evade taxation by sending their vast wealth to tax havens. Lasso ran on a campaign of ending the AP's increased spending on education, health, and infrastructure--even after Ecuador's brutal earthquake caused serious harm to that infrastructure. President Moreno can demonstrate that he intends to be a leader devoted to the welfare of every resident of Ecuador.
The AP, unlike the Trump administration, has many government ministers that are scrupulously honest and highly skilled technocrats dedicated to improving the welfare of the average Ecuadorian. President Moreno has a majority in the legislature. President Moreno will soon signal with his cabinet appointments whether he supports these true public servants.
Fifth, Ecuador has serious problems with corruption, particularly in the government-owned oil company and probably in major construction. Correa appointed a strong reformer to run the government procurement authority to root out corruption. The procurement authority, however, does not have jurisdiction over the oil industry and defense spending. President Moreno could expand its mandate and encourage public prosecutors and Ecuador's stellar antitrust authority to work to prosecute vigorously fraud, corruption, and cartels.
Sixth, Ecuador is far too bureaucratic. Correa made a serious effort to reduce substantially the number of hurdles business people have to get over to start a new business, but the oligarchs do not want to encourage competition. Encouraging the lawful entry of small businesses in Ecuador should be one of President Moreno's top priorities.
A nail-biting election in Ecuador appeared to end Sunday with leftist candidate Lenin Moreno winning the presidency over conservative Guillermo Lasso.
The National Electoral Council declared Moreno the winner by 51 percent, just minutes after another organization had said the race was a technical tie with both candidates being within 0.6 percentage points of each other.
Lasso demanded a recount as his supporters protested.
Moreno, leader of the ruling party, is seen as the political successor to outgoing President Rafael Correa. Moreno also previously served as Correa's vice president.
William K. Black, lawyer and academic, wrote an op-ed for Common Dreams last week that described Lasso as "a leader in aiding Ecuador's oligarchs to evade taxation through offshore tax havens" whose "platform is the standard right-wing recipe that caused Ecuador's recurrent economic, social, and political crises."
Indeed, Moreno rose in the polls in the week leading up the vote, after his party criticized Lasso for profiting from the nation's 1999 banking crisis.
The election was seen as a temperature check of Latin America's recent rightward shift. Brazil's former President Dilma Rousseff was ousted in 2016 in what many called a coup, while Argentina elected neoliberal businessman Mauricio Macri the year before. Peru also elected a right-leaning government in 2016.
Moreno's victory also means that WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange will likely be able to remain at the Ecuadorian embassy in London, where Correa granted him asylum in 2012 after he released tens of thousands of secret U.S. diplomatic cables and documents.
Lasso had vowed that if elected, he would "cordially invite" Assange to vacate the embassy within 30 days.
Assange responded to the result with a pointed remark at Lasso.
"I cordially invite Lasso to leave Ecuador within 30 days (with or without his tax haven millions)," Assange tweeted Monday.
Assange has lived in the Ecuadorian embassy for the past five years, fearing extradition to Sweden over sexual assault allegations. He has said he believes extradition would end with him being sent to the U.S., where he is wanted for publishing the diplomatic cables.
The democratic elections of President Rafael Correa in Ecuador have enraged the oligarchs, particularly the wealthiest bankers who ruled and predated on the nation for so many decades. That predation led to a massive banking crisis led by fraudulent elite bankers. Ecuadorians fled the nation in record numbers. Ecuador suffered the highest percentage of emigration in Latin America. Political crises became the norm, with a series of presidents forced to resign within months. Correa and his reform party, Alianza PAIS (AP), changed all this.
Correa has served his full elected terms of office largely because he met his campaign promises to more than double expenditures on education, health, and infrastructure that have transformed Ecuador and substantially reduced poverty, unemployment, and inequality. Ecuador's democracy is real. When rival parties won elections in a number of Ecuador's largest cities, there was a normal, peaceful transition of power to those parties. Ecuador has several major political parties and employs a common democratic means of determining whether the first round of the election results produce such a dominant winner that no run-off election is required. Despite the fact that Mr. Moreno, the AP candidate for the presidency, came within a razor-thin margin of reaching that decisive plurality in the first round, the government required a run-off election in accordance with the law.
The AP's reforms were so successful that immigration to Ecuador exceeded emigration from Ecuador. The AP reformed banking to reduce the frauds by elite bankers that drove Ecuador's financial crisis. The oligarchs and bankers have been weakening the Ecuadorian economy by moving their wealth to offshore tax havens. The AP has adopted legislation to limit such tax evasion.
The oligarch's candidate in the run-off election is Mr. Lasso. He is a wealthy banker who runs a bank in Panama that is a leader in aiding Ecuador's oligarchs to evade taxation through offshore tax havens. Lasso's platform is the standard right-wing recipe that caused Ecuador's recurrent economic, social, and political crises. Lasso proposes tax cuts for the wealthy, large cuts to education, health, and infrastructure, and financial deregulation.
Lasso complains of Ecuador's (small) budget deficit, but he is a leading cause of that deficit. He is under investigation by Ecuador's equivalent of the IRS for aiding tax evasion. In addition to Lasso's Panamanian bank that leads his efforts to help the wealthy evade taxes, investigative reporters have found that Lasso runs a maze of 49 companies to aid tax evasion.
Most Americans are appalled that President Trump has refused to disclose his tax returns. Lasso has deliberately weakened Ecuador's economy by profiting from helping thousands of Ecuador's wealthiest citizens evade taxation. In a recent plebiscite, Ecuadorians adopted a law that America should adopt as a model. It bans public officials from having assets or capital in tax havens. They have one year to bring home their money from the tax havens or leave office. Lasso and his supportive band of tax-evading oligarchs are desperate to retake control of Ecuador so that they can destroy this reform and continue to evade taxation.