'Business Continues to Be Severely Depressed': New Reports Paint Dark Picture of Trump Economy

Two reports released Wednesday paint an increasingly dark picture of the American economy under US President Donald Trump, matching predictions that his tax policy and chaotic tariffs would ultimately harm workers and put a drag on the nation's financial outlook.

First, processing firm ADP estimated in its latest monthly report that the US economy lost 32,000 jobs in September, with contractions in employment happening across multiple industries.

The leisure and hospitality industry was hardest hit, as ADP estimated it lost 19,000 jobs last month, followed by professional and business services, which lost an estimated 13,000 jobs, and financial activities, which lost an estimated 9,000 jobs.

Small businesses took the biggest hit, as they shed 40,000 employees on the month, ADP estimated.

Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said these latest numbers validate "what we've been seeing in the labor market, that US employers have been cautious with hiring."

The ADP report is not seen as reliable as the monthly jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, although that report will not be released on Friday as previously scheduled due to the current shutdown of the federal government.

In addition to the ADP survey, the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI Report revealed that the "manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month" amid uncertainty caused in large part by Trump's tariffs.

Comments made by executives in the new ISM survey point to a dire situation facing many US manufacturers.

"Business continues to be severely depressed," said one respondent. "Profits are down and extreme taxes (tariffs) are being shouldered by all companies in our space. We have increased price pressures both to our inputs and customer outputs as companies are starting to pass on tariffs via surcharges, raising prices up to 20 percent."

This executive, who works for a transportation equipment firm, added that "the addition of the derivative steel and aluminum tariffs in the middle of the month—with no announcement—was devastating."

An executive at an electrical equipment supplier, meanwhile, said that "customer orders are depressed for heavy machinery because tariffs are so impactful to high-end capital equipment." The executive said their company's revenue projections were flat for the rest of the year, with "no outlook to improve in 2026."

Another manufacturing executive simply said, "Steel tariffs are killing us."

This gloomy sentiment isn't just shared by business executives, but also US consumers. The Conference Board on Tuesday released its Consumer Confidence Index showing a "sharp deterioration in consumers’ views of the current economic situation" in the US.

Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board, noted that consumer confidence numbers are now the lowest they've been since April 2025, when Trump sent shockwaves through the economy by announcing his so-called "Liberation Day" tariffs that he partially backed away from in the face of a cratering stock market.

"Consumers’ assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low," Guichard explained. "This is consistent with the decline in job openings."

The Conference Board also found that consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions was once again below the threshold that "typically signals a recession ahead."