On Trump’s signature issue of immigration, 55% disapprove including just under two-thirds of Independents (64%). Once again, Trump’s base of non-college white voters back him on immigration (62% approve).
Trump does even more poorly on his handling of the economy (40% approve, 59% disapprove) than he does overall. A decisive 70% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better.
Even on the issue of crime which the Trump administration has focused on in the last several weeks does not generate any good news for the president. A 54% majority disapprove of his job performance on crime while 44% approve. Trump’s job performance on crime does resonate with voters ages 50 to 64 (54% approve, 45% disapprove).
Trump’s job performance numbers clearly indicate that he has been playing to his base among non-college white voters and ignoring the rest of the electorate. For a candidate who ran on the economy, his economic job performance numbers must be worrying. The logical thing for Trump to do would be to pivot from his focus on crime and immigration and focus on the cost of living. While this is the politically smart thing to do, Trump seems unlikely to take this path. Instead, he will continue to focus on his base. This is a real gamble because it is unlikely that there will be enough non-college white voters to enable the GOP to keep the House in Republican hands.
Fifty-three percent of respondents say that in 2026 they would vote to support Democrats to oppose Trump while 42% say they would vote for the GOP to support Trump’s agenda. Fully 59% of Independents say they would vote Democratic for Congress to oppose Trump’s agenda.
All this so far, is exceptionally good news for the Democrats. However, Democrats still have far to go with voters on key issues. On the question of which political party can best handle the economy, 32% prefer the Democrats, 39% the Republicans, and 28% say neither. A 47% plurality of Independents say neither party while 25% say the Democrats and 26% the Republicans.
On the issue of immigration, Republicans have a clear advantage as 42% of voters prefer the GOP while 29% support the Democrats and 28% say neither. Independent voters offer a very mixed picture on the question of which party can handle immigration (20% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 48% neither).
Thirteen months from the 2026 midterms, Democrats have many things to feel good about in these polling numbers. However, they also face a challenge. Voters do not trust them on immigration and the economy. The Democrats may be able to triumph next year without winning the majority of voters on immigration. It is likely that they will not be able to win without winning voters on both the economy and immigration.
Job No. 1 for the Democrats for the 2026 midterms is to produce an economic message. Given Trump’s poor economic job performance numbers, this would seem an easy task. However, it was something that they failed to do in 2024, and I would argue that it cost them the White House. Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better. If the Democratic Party fails here, they will hand GOP control of Congress for at least two more years. None of us can afford this outcome.
