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New Polling Shows That the Bottom Has Fallen Out for Trump’s Economic Job Performance
These numbers are so dramatic that they argue for a reboot of the Trump administration’s economic messaging.
Dec 12, 2025
Polling released by the AP/NORC on December 11 shows that the bottom has fallen out for President Donald Trump on his job performance on the economy. Just under a third (31%) approve of Trump’s work on the economy. This is a nine-point drop and is the lowest that the AP/NORC has recorded in either Trump’s first or second terms. Fully 80% of Independent voters give Trump negative scores on his economic stewardship. As you could have guessed, Democrats are nearly unanimous in giving Trump failing grades on the economy (93%). What is quite significant is that 29% of Republicans give Trump failing grades on the economy.
Voters’ perceptions of the economy are also very pessimistic. Overall, 68% say that the economy is in poor shape. Both Democrats (84%) and Independents (80%). Republicans offer a more mixed picture (56% good, 44% poor).
The most significant part of the AP/NORC findings is not Trump’s scores on the economy as they have been poor for some time. What is striking is that on his two signature issues of crime and immigration, Trump fares very poorly. Fully 60% of voters disapprove of Trump’s work on immigration including 70% of Independents. Trump’s grades on immigration are boosted by his GOP support (80% approve, 19% disapprove).
Only in relative terms, does Trump fare better on the issue of crime. Forty-three (43%) approve. Two-thirds (66%) of Independents give Trump failing grades on the economy. As was the case with immigration, Trump’s scores on crime are boosted by his strong support among Republicans (80% approve, 19% disapprove).
If the Trump administration is looking at the data honestly, they must be troubled that Independents and Democratic are on question after questions almost in alignment on their negative assessment of Trump’s job as president.
There is literally no good news for Trump or for that matter the GOP in the AP/NORC polling. These numbers are so dramatic that they argue for a reboot of the Trump administration’s economic messaging. Trump’s ratings on crime and immigration are a real problem, but what really threatens Trump are voters’ perceptions of his economic stewardship. Trump won the presidency in large part because voters thought that he would do a better job on the economy than Vice President Kamala Harris.
Rather than change course on the economy, the Trump administration seems likely to continue to blame the Biden administration for the state of the economy. There is nothing in polling data that would indicate that this will work. Furthermore, Trump’s remarks in Pennsylvania on December 9 also indicate that he is not aware or willing to accept voters’ perceptions of his handling of the economy. This is a clear warning sign of a Democratic landslide in 2026.
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Corporations, Not Immigrants, Are Driving a US Crime Wave
Even the Cato Institute found that incarceration rates for immigrants are far lower than those for the native-born.
Sep 28, 2025
Fear of street crime and criminals is a politically charged issue. Politicians stoke that fear to gain the consent of voters, from the anti-Black Willie Horton commercial ads of US GOP President George H. W. Bush against Democrat Michael Dukakis in the presidential campaign of 1988 to President Donald Trump’s 2016 and 2024 successful runs for the White House. After decades of economic globalization and climate disruptions, the tough-on-crime platform has evolved from anti-Blackness to migrant demonization. While the former remains central to US politics, the latter demonizes the national origin of criminals, actual and fictional, right up to the president castigating immigration as an invasion creating social ruination at the United Nations recently.
How does such rhetoric match up with data on incarceration for immigrants and the native-born in the US.? We turn to a new study from the Cato Institute, a contributor to the Department of Government Efficiency, a wrecking ball on federal programs and workforce, and Project 2025, the Trump White House’s playbook for restructuring US democracy.
Cato scholars Alex Nowrasteh and Krit Chanwong analyzed annual data from the American Community Survey and found that incarceration rates for immigrants are far lower than those for the native-born.
To this end the duo plotted “the incarceration risk for individuals born in 1990 by immigration status. For the 1990 cohort, native-born Americans were 267% more likely to be incarcerated than immigrants by age 33. Eleven percent of native-born Americans in that year-born cohort have been incarcerated compared to just 3% of immigrants. Other countries really are sending their best.”
In contrast, White House border czar Tom Homan is involved with federal immigration raids that, according to him, are “targeting the worst of the worst.” Homan allegedly took $50,000 in a Federal Bureau of Investigation sting recently.
What about the incarceration risks for immigrants and native-born Americans who are Asian, Hispanic, Black, and white?
Immigrants born in 1990 had a significantly lower incarceration risk than native-born Americans for all races and ethnicities born in the same year. All (legal plus illegal) Hispanic, Asian, Black, and white immigrants as groups each have a lower incarceration rate than white native-born Americans. Asian illegal immigrants have the lowest incarceration risks at around 0.08%.
Here’s a reason why immigrants may have lower incarceration rates. “Noncitizen criminals who are incarcerated are deported after serving their sentences,” according to Alex Nowrasteh and Krit Chanwong, “which means they don’t respond to future American surveys because they are no longer on American soil. Put another way, our study measures whether the respondents have ever been incarcerated.”
All things equal, one thing is clear. Immigrants are not driving a crime wave in the US. There is a wave of corporate crime stateside, however, with companies such as Boeing and its 737 MAX aircraft crashes a case in point.
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WaPo Poll Shows Broad and Deep Disapproval of Trump Across Issue Areas
But Democrats still have to win over voters on key issues.
Sep 23, 2025
Polling from the Washington Post conducted by Ipsos shows that Americans disapprove of US President Donald Trump’s job performance on a wide range of issues by significant margins. At the same time, voters remain wary of the Democrats on key issues.
Fully 55% of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance with 46% saying that they strongly disapprove. Sixty percent of female voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance while Independent voters (67% disapprove) render an even harsher judgement. Trump receives his highest scores among his base of white non-college voters (60% approve, 40% disapprove).
On Trump’s signature issue of immigration, 55% disapprove including just under two-thirds of Independents (64%). Once again, Trump’s base of non-college white voters back him on immigration (62% approve).
Trump does even more poorly on his handling of the economy (40% approve, 59% disapprove) than he does overall. A decisive 70% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy.
Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better.
Even on the issue of crime which the Trump administration has focused on in the last several weeks does not generate any good news for the president. A 54% majority disapprove of his job performance on crime while 44% approve. Trump’s job performance on crime does resonate with voters ages 50 to 64 (54% approve, 45% disapprove).
Trump’s job performance numbers clearly indicate that he has been playing to his base among non-college white voters and ignoring the rest of the electorate. For a candidate who ran on the economy, his economic job performance numbers must be worrying. The logical thing for Trump to do would be to pivot from his focus on crime and immigration and focus on the cost of living. While this is the politically smart thing to do, Trump seems unlikely to take this path. Instead, he will continue to focus on his base. This is a real gamble because it is unlikely that there will be enough non-college white voters to enable the GOP to keep the House in Republican hands.
Fifty-three percent of respondents say that in 2026 they would vote to support Democrats to oppose Trump while 42% say they would vote for the GOP to support Trump’s agenda. Fully 59% of Independents say they would vote Democratic for Congress to oppose Trump’s agenda.
All this so far, is exceptionally good news for the Democrats. However, Democrats still have far to go with voters on key issues. On the question of which political party can best handle the economy, 32% prefer the Democrats, 39% the Republicans, and 28% say neither. A 47% plurality of Independents say neither party while 25% say the Democrats and 26% the Republicans.
On the issue of immigration, Republicans have a clear advantage as 42% of voters prefer the GOP while 29% support the Democrats and 28% say neither. Independent voters offer a very mixed picture on the question of which party can handle immigration (20% Democrats, 30% Republicans, and 48% neither).
Thirteen months from the 2026 midterms, Democrats have many things to feel good about in these polling numbers. However, they also face a challenge. Voters do not trust them on immigration and the economy. The Democrats may be able to triumph next year without winning the majority of voters on immigration. It is likely that they will not be able to win without winning voters on both the economy and immigration.
Job No. 1 for the Democrats for the 2026 midterms is to produce an economic message. Given Trump’s poor economic job performance numbers, this would seem an easy task. However, it was something that they failed to do in 2024, and I would argue that it cost them the White House. Voters are clearly telling the Democrats it is not enough to be just the anti-Trump. Democrats need to tell voters in no uncertain terms how they would make their lives better. If the Democratic Party fails here, they will hand GOP control of Congress for at least two more years. None of us can afford this outcome.
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