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New polling from Data for Progress showed that Jamaal Bowman is 10 points ahead of longtime Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) in the primary campaign for New York's 16th district. (Photo: Bowman for Congress)
New polling from New York's 16th congressional district shows progressuve primary challenger Jamaal Bowman 10 points ahead of 16-term incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel, a centrist Democrat, as the former middle school principal's insurgent campaign urged supporters to keep the pressure on to achieve victory in next week's primary.
The progressive think tank Data for Progress conducted the survey between June 11 and 15, polling 525 likely Democratic voters in the 16th district, which lies in the Northern Bronx and lower Westchester County.
Forty-one percent of voters reported they were planning to support Bowman, while 31% said they would support Engel. Just over a quarter of respondents said they were still undecided about the election, in which the last day to vote is June 23.
Bowman celebrated the poll results while urging supporters to continue fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts to counter the $600,000 Engel is spending on attack ads against his progressive challenger. Critics of Engel have recently highlighted $100,000 in funding that a Republican super PAC funneled to a group backing him.
\u201cThis latest poll shows we have the momentum. But we need all your help to reach undecided voters over the next SIX DAYS until Election Day.\n\nWe're facing over a million dollars in negative ads from dark money groups and we need your support.\n\nJoin us.\n\nhttps://t.co/PQtuTOrGBb\u201d— Jamaal Bowman Ed.D (@Jamaal Bowman Ed.D) 1592395386
Organizer Nikhil Goyal urged supporters to "fight like we're down ten points."
The poll showed Bowman--who supports Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and a Reconstruction Agenda to shift funding for police departments and prisons to social services--with significant support from black voters in the 16th district, with 56% saying they would support him versus just 10% who backed Engel. A majority of undecided black voters also said they were leaning towards supporting Bowman.
The poll was conducted a week after Engel was heard on a hot mic at a Black Lives Matter event telling organizers that he wanted to speak to the crowd, but that if he "didn't have a primary, [he] wouldn't care."
Thirty-seven percent of Latino voters also supported Bowman, versus 27% who backed Engel, and Bowman leads among voters both under and over the age of 45.
The poll results come amid a number of high-profile endorsements for Bowman from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.)--who announced her endorsement Wednesday--and the New York Times editorial board, which wrote last week, "In a district that needs new energy, Mr. Bowman will bring it."
Meanwhile, after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declined to offer his support to Engel last week, contradicting the congressman's claim on his website that he had the Democratic leader's endorsement, a number of establishment figures rushed to Engel's aid in recent days.
Hillary Clinton gave her first endorsement of the House primary season to Engel on Tuesday, joining House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.), and caucus chair Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
"Feels like the Democratic Party establishment is working harder to defeat Jamaal Bowman than deliver police reform and economic relief for Americans still suffering from the pandemic," Waleed Shahid of Justice Democrats tweeted on Wednesday.
The support for Engel among other powerful Democrats, most of whom reject the bold progressive initiatives pushed by Bowman and other progressives, is a sign of "desperation" among the establishment, Ryan Cooper wrote at The Week on Wednesday:
The Democratic establishment views its primary task as managing and controlling its voters rather than trying to do what they want. They have convinced themselves that the country is unshakably conservative, and therefore the best they can do is hang on to power and occasionally pass milquetoast reforms... That's how you get incumbents like Engel who can barely be bothered even to pretend they cater to the needs of their districts.
The prospect of the slumbering Democratic base being awakened by candidates like Bowman, and demanding the party fight for progressive policies just as hard as Republicans fight for conservative ones, would blow up this comfortable arrangement. That strikes fear into the establishment. If Engel goes down, a whole slew of elderly Democratic bigwigs, previously comfortable in their deep-blue seats telling their voters what they can't have, might be next... That is why all these party grandees are trying to save his skin.
With powerful Democrats as well as GOP interests lining up to push Engel over the finish line, attorney and former New York gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout urged voters to see the latest poll results not as a reason to assume Bowman's victory is secure, but as motivation to continue working to elect the progressive challenger.
"Jamaal is up!" she wrote. "You know what to do. Work harder."
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New polling from New York's 16th congressional district shows progressuve primary challenger Jamaal Bowman 10 points ahead of 16-term incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel, a centrist Democrat, as the former middle school principal's insurgent campaign urged supporters to keep the pressure on to achieve victory in next week's primary.
The progressive think tank Data for Progress conducted the survey between June 11 and 15, polling 525 likely Democratic voters in the 16th district, which lies in the Northern Bronx and lower Westchester County.
Forty-one percent of voters reported they were planning to support Bowman, while 31% said they would support Engel. Just over a quarter of respondents said they were still undecided about the election, in which the last day to vote is June 23.
Bowman celebrated the poll results while urging supporters to continue fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts to counter the $600,000 Engel is spending on attack ads against his progressive challenger. Critics of Engel have recently highlighted $100,000 in funding that a Republican super PAC funneled to a group backing him.
\u201cThis latest poll shows we have the momentum. But we need all your help to reach undecided voters over the next SIX DAYS until Election Day.\n\nWe're facing over a million dollars in negative ads from dark money groups and we need your support.\n\nJoin us.\n\nhttps://t.co/PQtuTOrGBb\u201d— Jamaal Bowman Ed.D (@Jamaal Bowman Ed.D) 1592395386
Organizer Nikhil Goyal urged supporters to "fight like we're down ten points."
The poll showed Bowman--who supports Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and a Reconstruction Agenda to shift funding for police departments and prisons to social services--with significant support from black voters in the 16th district, with 56% saying they would support him versus just 10% who backed Engel. A majority of undecided black voters also said they were leaning towards supporting Bowman.
The poll was conducted a week after Engel was heard on a hot mic at a Black Lives Matter event telling organizers that he wanted to speak to the crowd, but that if he "didn't have a primary, [he] wouldn't care."
Thirty-seven percent of Latino voters also supported Bowman, versus 27% who backed Engel, and Bowman leads among voters both under and over the age of 45.
The poll results come amid a number of high-profile endorsements for Bowman from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.)--who announced her endorsement Wednesday--and the New York Times editorial board, which wrote last week, "In a district that needs new energy, Mr. Bowman will bring it."
Meanwhile, after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declined to offer his support to Engel last week, contradicting the congressman's claim on his website that he had the Democratic leader's endorsement, a number of establishment figures rushed to Engel's aid in recent days.
Hillary Clinton gave her first endorsement of the House primary season to Engel on Tuesday, joining House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.), and caucus chair Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
"Feels like the Democratic Party establishment is working harder to defeat Jamaal Bowman than deliver police reform and economic relief for Americans still suffering from the pandemic," Waleed Shahid of Justice Democrats tweeted on Wednesday.
The support for Engel among other powerful Democrats, most of whom reject the bold progressive initiatives pushed by Bowman and other progressives, is a sign of "desperation" among the establishment, Ryan Cooper wrote at The Week on Wednesday:
The Democratic establishment views its primary task as managing and controlling its voters rather than trying to do what they want. They have convinced themselves that the country is unshakably conservative, and therefore the best they can do is hang on to power and occasionally pass milquetoast reforms... That's how you get incumbents like Engel who can barely be bothered even to pretend they cater to the needs of their districts.
The prospect of the slumbering Democratic base being awakened by candidates like Bowman, and demanding the party fight for progressive policies just as hard as Republicans fight for conservative ones, would blow up this comfortable arrangement. That strikes fear into the establishment. If Engel goes down, a whole slew of elderly Democratic bigwigs, previously comfortable in their deep-blue seats telling their voters what they can't have, might be next... That is why all these party grandees are trying to save his skin.
With powerful Democrats as well as GOP interests lining up to push Engel over the finish line, attorney and former New York gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout urged voters to see the latest poll results not as a reason to assume Bowman's victory is secure, but as motivation to continue working to elect the progressive challenger.
"Jamaal is up!" she wrote. "You know what to do. Work harder."
New polling from New York's 16th congressional district shows progressuve primary challenger Jamaal Bowman 10 points ahead of 16-term incumbent Rep. Eliot Engel, a centrist Democrat, as the former middle school principal's insurgent campaign urged supporters to keep the pressure on to achieve victory in next week's primary.
The progressive think tank Data for Progress conducted the survey between June 11 and 15, polling 525 likely Democratic voters in the 16th district, which lies in the Northern Bronx and lower Westchester County.
Forty-one percent of voters reported they were planning to support Bowman, while 31% said they would support Engel. Just over a quarter of respondents said they were still undecided about the election, in which the last day to vote is June 23.
Bowman celebrated the poll results while urging supporters to continue fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts to counter the $600,000 Engel is spending on attack ads against his progressive challenger. Critics of Engel have recently highlighted $100,000 in funding that a Republican super PAC funneled to a group backing him.
\u201cThis latest poll shows we have the momentum. But we need all your help to reach undecided voters over the next SIX DAYS until Election Day.\n\nWe're facing over a million dollars in negative ads from dark money groups and we need your support.\n\nJoin us.\n\nhttps://t.co/PQtuTOrGBb\u201d— Jamaal Bowman Ed.D (@Jamaal Bowman Ed.D) 1592395386
Organizer Nikhil Goyal urged supporters to "fight like we're down ten points."
The poll showed Bowman--who supports Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, and a Reconstruction Agenda to shift funding for police departments and prisons to social services--with significant support from black voters in the 16th district, with 56% saying they would support him versus just 10% who backed Engel. A majority of undecided black voters also said they were leaning towards supporting Bowman.
The poll was conducted a week after Engel was heard on a hot mic at a Black Lives Matter event telling organizers that he wanted to speak to the crowd, but that if he "didn't have a primary, [he] wouldn't care."
Thirty-seven percent of Latino voters also supported Bowman, versus 27% who backed Engel, and Bowman leads among voters both under and over the age of 45.
The poll results come amid a number of high-profile endorsements for Bowman from Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.)--who announced her endorsement Wednesday--and the New York Times editorial board, which wrote last week, "In a district that needs new energy, Mr. Bowman will bring it."
Meanwhile, after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declined to offer his support to Engel last week, contradicting the congressman's claim on his website that he had the Democratic leader's endorsement, a number of establishment figures rushed to Engel's aid in recent days.
Hillary Clinton gave her first endorsement of the House primary season to Engel on Tuesday, joining House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.), and caucus chair Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).
"Feels like the Democratic Party establishment is working harder to defeat Jamaal Bowman than deliver police reform and economic relief for Americans still suffering from the pandemic," Waleed Shahid of Justice Democrats tweeted on Wednesday.
The support for Engel among other powerful Democrats, most of whom reject the bold progressive initiatives pushed by Bowman and other progressives, is a sign of "desperation" among the establishment, Ryan Cooper wrote at The Week on Wednesday:
The Democratic establishment views its primary task as managing and controlling its voters rather than trying to do what they want. They have convinced themselves that the country is unshakably conservative, and therefore the best they can do is hang on to power and occasionally pass milquetoast reforms... That's how you get incumbents like Engel who can barely be bothered even to pretend they cater to the needs of their districts.
The prospect of the slumbering Democratic base being awakened by candidates like Bowman, and demanding the party fight for progressive policies just as hard as Republicans fight for conservative ones, would blow up this comfortable arrangement. That strikes fear into the establishment. If Engel goes down, a whole slew of elderly Democratic bigwigs, previously comfortable in their deep-blue seats telling their voters what they can't have, might be next... That is why all these party grandees are trying to save his skin.
With powerful Democrats as well as GOP interests lining up to push Engel over the finish line, attorney and former New York gubernatorial candidate Zephyr Teachout urged voters to see the latest poll results not as a reason to assume Bowman's victory is secure, but as motivation to continue working to elect the progressive challenger.
"Jamaal is up!" she wrote. "You know what to do. Work harder."
"Zeldin's assertion that the EPA shouldn't address greenhouse gas emissions is like a fire chief claiming that they shouldn't fight fires," said one critic. "It is as malicious as it is absurd."
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration faced an onslaught of criticism on Tuesday for starting the process of repealing the 2009 legal opinion that greenhouse gases endanger public health and the welfare of the American people—which has enabled federal regulations aimed at the fossil fuel-driven climate emergency over the past 15 years.
Confirming reports from last week, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin unveiled the rule to rescind the 2009 "endangerment finding" at a truck dealership in Indiana. According to The New York Times, he said that "the proposal would, if finalized, amount to the largest deregulatory action in the history of the United States."
If the administration succeeds in repealing the legal finding, the EPA would lack authority under the Clean Air Act to impose standards for greenhouse gas emissions—meaning the move would kill vehicle regulations. As with the reporting last week, the formal announcement was sharply condemned by climate and health advocates and experts.
"Greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and are the root cause of the climate crisis," said Deanna Noël with Public Citizen's Climate Program, ripping the administration's effort as "grossly misguided and exceptionally dangerous."
"This isn't just a denial of science and reality—it's a betrayal of public trust and yet another signal that this administration is working for corporate interests, and no one else."
"Stripping the EPA of its ability to regulate greenhouse gases is like throwing away the fire extinguisher while the house is already burning," she warned. "The administration is shamelessly handing Big Oil a hall pass to pollute unchecked and dodge accountability, leaving working families to bear the costs through worsening health outcomes, rising energy bills, more climate-fueled extreme weather, and an increasingly unstable future. This isn't just a denial of science and reality—it's a betrayal of public trust and yet another signal that this administration is working for corporate interests, and no one else."
Noël was far from alone in accusing the administration's leaders of serving the polluters who helped Trump return to power.
"Zeldin and Trump are concerned only with maximizing short-term profits for polluting corporations and the CEOs funneling millions of dollars to their campaign coffers," said Jim Walsh, policy director at Food & Water Watch. "Zeldin's assertion that the EPA shouldn't address greenhouse gas emissions is like a fire chief claiming that they shouldn't fight fires. It is as malicious as it is absurd."
Dan Becker, director of the Center for Biological Diversity's Safe Climate Transport Campaign, similarly said that the proposal is "purely a political bow to the oil industry" and "Trump is putting fealty to Big Oil over sound science and people's health."
Earthworks policy director Lauren Pagel also called the rule "a perverse gift to the fossil fuel industry that rejects yearslong efforts by the agency, scientists, NGOs, frontline communities, and industry to protect public health and our environment."
"Donald Trump and Lee Zeldin are playing with fire—and with floods and droughts and public health risks, too," she stressed, as about 168 million Americans on Tuesday faced advisories for extreme heat made more likely by the climate crisis.
🚨 The Trump administration just took its most extreme step yet in rolling back climate protections.
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— Sierra Club (@sierraclub.org) July 29, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Justin Chen, president of American Federation of Government Employees Council 238, which represents over 8,000 EPA workers nationwide, said that the repeal plan "is reckless and will have far-reaching, disastrous consequences for the USA."
"EPA career professionals have worked for decades on the development of the science and policy of greenhouse gases to protect the American public," he continued, "and this policy decision completely disregards all of their work in service to the public."
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) highlighted that Chris Wright, head of the Department of Energy, joined Zeldin at the Tuesday press conference and "announced a DOE 'climate science study' alongside remarks that were rife with climate denial talking points and disinformation."
UCS president Gretchen Goldman said that "it's abundantly clear what's going on here. The Trump administration refuses to acknowledge robust climate science and is using the kitchen sink approach: making every specious argument it can to avoid complying with the law."
"But getting around the Clean Air Act won't be easy," she added. "The science establishing climate harms to human health was unequivocally clear back in 2009, and more than 15 years later, the evidence has only accumulated."
Today, Zeldin’s EPA plans to release a proposal to revoke the Endangerment Finding, which is the legal & scientific foundation of EPA’s responsibility to limit climate-heating greenhouse gas pollution from major sources.
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— Moms Clean Air Force (@momscleanairforce.org) July 29, 2025 at 12:58 PM
David Bookbinder, director of law and policy at the Environmental Integrity Project, was a lead attorney in the 2007 U.S. Supreme Court case Massachusetts vs. EPA, which affirmed the agency's authority to regulate greenhouse gases under the Clean Air Act and ultimately led to the endangerment finding two years later.
Bookbinder said Tuesday that "because this approach has already been rejected by the courts—and doubtless will be again—this baseless effort to pretend that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses that cause climate change are not harmful pollutants is nothing more than a transparent attempt to delay and derail our efforts to control greenhouse pollution at the worst possible time, when deadly floods and heat waves are killing more people every day."
In a statement from the Environmental Protection Network, which is made up of ex-EPA staff, Joseph Goffman, former assistant administrator of the agency's Office of Air and Radiation, also cited the 2007 ruling.
"This decision is both legally indefensible and morally bankrupt," Goffman said of the Tuesday proposal. "The Supreme Court made clear that EPA cannot ignore science or evade its responsibilities under the Clean Air Act. By walking away from the endangerment finding, EPA has not only broken with precedent; it has broken with reality."
Aru Shiney-Ajay, executive director of the youth-led Sunrise Movement, responded to the EPA proposal with defiance, declaring that "Donald Trump and his Big Oil donors are lighting the world on fire and fueling their private jets with young people's lives. We refuse to be sacrifices for their greed. We're coming for them, and we're not backing down."
Israel has already summarily rejected the U.K. leader's ultimatum to take "substantive" steps to end the war on Gaza by September, agree to a two-state solution, and reject West Bank annexation.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer was accused of "political grandstanding" after he said Tuesday that his country would recognize Palestinian statehood if Israel did not take ambiguously defined steps to end its war on Gaza—conditions that were promptly dismissed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
"Today, as part of this process towards peace, I can confirm the U.K. will recognize the state of Palestine by the United Nations General Assembly in September, unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, agree to a cease-fire, and commit to a long-term sustainable peace, reviving the prospect of a two-state solution," Starmer said during a press conference.
"This includes allowing the U.N. to restart the supply of aid and making clear that there will be no annexations in the West Bank," the prime minister continued, adding that "the terrorists of Hamas... must immediately release all of the hostages, sign up to a cease-fire, disarm, and accept that they will play no part in the government of Gaza."
Member of Scottish Parliament Scott Greer (Scottish Greens-West Scotland) responded to Tuesday's announcement on social media, saying, "Starmer wouldn't threaten to withdraw U.K. recognition of Israel, but he's made recognition of Palestinian statehood conditional on the actions of their genocidal oppressor?"
"Another profoundly unjust act from a Labour government thoroughly complicit in Israel's crimes," Greer added.
British attorney and activist Shola Mos-Shogbamimu asserted that "Keir Starmer knows his time is up and pivots to save his career but it's too late."
"By placing a condition on recognizing Palestine this declaration is performative and disingenuous because before September he can claim Israel has substantively complied with the condition," she added.
Leftist politician and Accountability Archive co-founder Philip Proudfoot argued on social media that "decent" Members of Parliament "need to table a no-confidence motion in Starmer now."
"He has just used the recognition of Palestine as a bargaining chip in exchange for Israel following its BASIC LEGAL OBLIGATIONS," he added. "This is one of the lowest political acts in living memory."
Media critic Sana Saeed said on social media, "Using Palestinian life and future as a bargaining chip and threat to Israel—not a surprise from kid starver Keir Starmer."
Journalist Sangita Myska argued that "rather than threatening the gesture politics of recognizing a Palestinian state (that may never happen)," Starmer should expel Israel's ambassador to the U.K., impose "full trade sanctions" and a "full arms embargo," and end alleged Royal Air Force surveillance flights over Gaza.
Political analyst Bushra Shaikh accused Starmer of "political grandstanding" and "speaking from both sides of his mouth."
Starmer's announcement followed a Monday meeting in Turnberry, Scotland with U.S. President Donald Trump, who signaled that he would not object to U.K. recognition of Palestine.
However, U.S. State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce called Starmer's announcement "a slap in the face for the victims of October 7," a reference to the Hamas-led attack of 2023.
While the United States remains Israel's staunchest supporter and enabler—providing billions of dollars in annual armed aid and diplomatic cover—Trump, Vice President JD Vance, and U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee have all expressed concerns over mounting starvation deaths in Gaza.
On Tuesday, the U.N.-affiliated Integrated Food Security Phase Classification warned that a "worst-case" famine scenario is developing in Gaza, where health officials say at least 147 Palestinians, including at least 88 children, have died from malnutrition since Israel launched its obliteration and siege of the enclave following the October 2023 attack.
Israel—which imposed a "complete siege" on Gaza following that attack—has severely limited the amount of humanitarian aid that can enter the strip. According to U.N. officials, Israel Defense Forces troops have killed more than 1,000 aid-seeking civilians at distribution points run by the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. IDF troops have said they were ordered to shoot live bullets and artillery shells at aid seekers.
Netanyahu—who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes in Gaza including murder and weaponized starvation—responded to the U.K. prime minister's ultimatum in a social media post stating, "Starmer rewards Hamas' monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims."
"A jihadist state on Israel's border TODAY will threaten Britain TOMORROW," Netanyahu said. "Appeasement towards jihadist terrorists always fails. It will fail you too. It will not happen."
The U.K. played a critical role in the foundation of the modern state of Israel, allowing Jewish colonization of what was then the British Mandate of Palestine under condition that "nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine," who made up more than 90% of the population.
Seeing that Jewish immigrants returning to their ancestral homeland were usurping the indigenous Arabs of Palestine, the British subsequently prohibited further Zionist colonization. This sparked a nearly decadelong wave of terrorism and other attacks against the British occupiers that ultimately resulted in the U.K. abandoning Palestine and the establishment of Israel under the authority of the United Nations—an outcome achieved by the ethnic cleansing of more than 750,000 Palestinian Arabs.
On the topic of annexing the West Bank, earlier this month, all 15 Israeli government ministers representing Netanyahu's Likud party recommended the move, citing support from Trump. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) found last year that Israel's occupation of Palestine, including the West Bank and Gaza, is an illegal form of apartheid.
Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron said his country would announce its formal recognition of Palestinian statehood during September's U.N. General Assembly in New York. France is set to become the first Group of Seven nation to recognize Palestine, which is currently officially acknowledged by approximately 150 of the 193 U.N. member states.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz subsequently threatened "severe consequences" for nations that recognize Palestine.
Starmer's announcement came on the same day that the Gaza Health Ministry said that the death toll from Israel's 662-day assault and siege on Gaza—which is the subject of a South Africa-led genocide case at the ICJ—topped 60,000. However, multiple peer-reviewed studies in the prestigious British medical journal The Lancet have concluded that Gaza officials' casualty tallies are likely significant undercounts.
"Eric Adams is a complete non-factor in this race," remarked a founding partner of pollster Zenith Research.
A new poll of the New York City mayoral race found that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is very well positioned to win later this year and that former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is only competitive in the race if every other Mamdani opponent drops out.
The survey, which was conducted by polling firm Zenith Research, showed Mamdani holding what Zenith founding partner Adam Carlson described on X as a "commanding" lead of 28 points among likely voters in a five-way race featuring Cuomo, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, Republican Curtis Sliwa, and independent candidate Jim Walden. Even in other scenarios where other candidates drop out of the race, Mamdani would still garner more than 50% of likely votes in each instance.
However, Mamdani's lead becomes much smaller when the poll is expanded to all registered voters, among whom he only holds a three-point advantage over Cuomo in a head-to-head matchup. This suggests that Cuomo has room to grow as long as he can convince Adams, Sliwa, and Walden to exit the race.
Even so, commented Carlson, Cuomo faces significant headwinds that could block his path to victory even if he succeeds somehow in making it a one-on-one race.
"Another thing that’s extremely tough for Cuomo is that 60% of likely voters (as well as 52% of registered voters) would not even consider voting for him," he explained. "Only 32% say they wouldn't consider voting for Mamdani. Cuomo will need to go scorched earth to bring that number up."
New Yorkers who oppose Mamdani will have to place their hopes in the disgraced former governor, given the dismal standing held by incumbent Adams.
"Eric Adams is a complete non-factor in this race," remarked Carlson. "He polls at 7% in the five-way race, 14% if Cuomo drops out, and 32% if Cuomo and Sliwa drop out. More than half of [likely voters] strongly disapprove of his performance and have a very unfavorable view of him. 68% won't consider voting for him."
The poll also found Mamdani with an overall lead among Jewish voters despite efforts by opponents to paint him as antisemitic given his opposition to Israel's war in Gaza and his past reluctance to criticize the slogan "globalize the intifada," which he told The Bulwark he viewed as "a desperate desire for equality and equal rights in standing up for Palestinian human rights." New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, a progressive Jewish ally of Mamdani's who has endorsed his mayoral bid, acknowledged before the election that some Jewish people view the phrase as a threat of violence.
Among likely Jewish voters, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 17 points in a five-way race. Although Cuomo holds a double-digit lead over Mamdani among likely Jewish voters over the age of 45, Mamdani dominates among young Jewish voters by pulling in more than two-thirds of likely Jewish voters between the ages of 18 and 44.